The Fed says it ignores politics. Its rate moves tell a more complicated story

Alex Wong/Getty Images

Federal Reserve officials agree that inflation needs to return to the central bank’s 2% annual target. Instead, the war with Iran has sent gas prices soaring , and price increases are starting to spread beyond the gas station . Last month, that prompted Fed officials to raise rates for the first time in three years to cool the economy and bring down inflation.

Yet this month, even with the inflation picture worsening, the Fed is widely expected to hold rates steady at its Wednesday meeting.

Would that still be the case if the midterms weren’t just six days away?

At his 2:30 p.m. press conference Wednesday, Fed Chairman Kevin Warsh is likely to face questions about political pressure if the central bank does keep rates unchanged. The Fed’s independence is a cornerstone of its monetary policy decisions. However, in an election year, that independence inevitably comes under the microscope.

Andrew Harnik/Getty Images

Outside of the pandemic, when rates were kept at near-zero levels, the Fed adjusted rates within two months of Election Day in four out of five of the most recent election years.

In September 2024, for example, the Fed slashed its benchmark interest rate by half a point just six weeks before the presidential election. That marked the start of a cutting cycle as inflation cooled and officials grew concerned about a weakening labor market.

Meanwhile, leading into the 2022 elections, the central bank pushed out two consecutive three-quarter point hikes, triple the size of the typical rate move, as it battled the worst inflation in almost four decades. And at the meeting after Election Day it announced another hike, this time a smaller half point.

In 2016, officials didn’t change rates at the two immediate meetings before Election Day and instead hiked rates by a quarter point at the subsequent meeting.

At that time, then-Philadelphia Fed President Patrick Harker supported a rate hike in September. However, he said he was opposed to hiking at the November meeting that was just six days before the presidential election.

“What I’m worried about is depending on the outcome of the election and what happens after that, if there are policies that would have distortive effects that we would have to respond to, we’ll have to respond,” Harker said in remarks in October 2016. “And I don’t know which way that will go. But it may be prudent to wait until we have resolved some of that uncertainty.”

Then-Fed Chair Janet Yellen, though, said the election did not play any role in officials’ decision-making process.

Leading up to this week’s meeting, Fed officials have signaled that they believe economic conditions don’t warrant another immediate hike and that they would rather wait for more data. That’s because raising rates too early could unnecessarily weaken the economy — for example, by prompting consumers to pull back on spending as borrowing costs rise .

That measured approach contrasts with President Donald Trump’s demands for lower rates.

Elected officials, particularly presidents, tend to favor lower interest rates because that makes it cheaper for consumers and businesses to borrow. Trump, whose support has been faltering in recent months as gas prices and other costs have risen, has increased his pressure on the Fed to lower rates.

Trump tapped Warsh to succeed Fed Chair Jerome Powell after repeatedly criticizing the central bank for not aggressively cutting rates. But Warsh’s first major move as head of the central bank was a rate hike, a decision that many viewed as a sign he wasn’t going to let politics interfere with Fed policy.

Nonetheless, if the Fed does hold rates steady as expected, Warsh may have to work harder than usual to convince Americans that the political calendar played no part in its decision. (While the Fed chair has considerable power at the Fed, the position represents just one vote on a 12-person committee.)

“Tightening cannot appear to be a move against the administration, while holding cannot look like accommodation,” EY-Parthenon chief economist Gregory Daco said in a note last week.

Meanwhile, Bank of America head of US economic research Aditya Bhave noted that since investors expect the Fed to hold rates steady, a hike could now catch markets off guard and trigger further volatility at an already tense time.

Alex Wong/Getty Images

美联储官员一致认为，通胀率需要回到央行2%的年度目标水平。然而，与伊朗的战争导致汽油价格飙升，而且物价上涨的影响已经开始蔓延到加油站以外的地区。上个月，这促使美联储官员三年来首次加息，以抑制经济过热并降低通胀。

然而，尽管本月通胀形势恶化，但市场普遍预期美联储将在周三的会议上维持利率不变。

如果期中考试不是还有六天就要举行，情况还会如此吗？

美联储主席凯文·沃什周三下午2点30分的新闻发布会上，很可能面临有关美联储维持利率不变是否会受到政治压力的质询。美联储的独立性是其货币政策决策的基石。然而，在选举年，这种独立性不可避免地会受到严格审查。

Andrew Harnik/Getty Images

在疫情之外，利率一直维持在接近零的水平，美联储在最近五年中的四年里，都在选举日后的两个月内调整了利率。

例如，2024年9月，美联储在总统大选前六周将基准利率下调了0.5个百分点。这标志着降息周期的开始，因为通胀降温，官员们开始担忧劳动力市场疲软。

与此同时，在2022年大选前夕，央行连续两次加息，每次加息幅度达0.75个百分点，是通常加息幅度的三倍，以应对近四十年来最严重的通胀。在大选后的会议上，央行宣布再次加息，但这次加息幅度较小，为0.5个百分点。

2016 年，官员们在选举日前的两次会议上没有改变利率，而是在随后的会议上将利率提高了 0.25 个百分点。

当时，时任费城联储主席帕特里克·哈克支持在9月份加息。然而，他表示反对在11月份的会议上加息，因为那次会议距离总统大选仅剩六天。

哈克在2016年10月的一次讲话中表示：“我担心的是，根据选举结果以及之后的发展，如果出现一些政策会产生扭曲性的影响，而我们必须应对这些影响，那么我们就必须应对。我不知道最终结果会如何。但或许谨慎的做法是等到一些不确定因素消除后再采取行动。”

不过，时任美联储主席珍妮特·耶伦表示，选举并未对官员的决策过程产生任何影响。

在本周会议召开前，美联储官员已表示，他们认为当前的经济状况并不需要立即加息，他们更倾向于等待更多数据。这是因为过早加息可能会不必要地削弱经济——例如，借贷成本上升会导致消费者减少支出。

这种审慎的做法与唐纳德·特朗普总统要求降低利率的要求形成了鲜明对比。

民选官员，尤其是总统，往往倾向于降低利率，因为这能降低消费者和企业的借贷成本。近几个月来，随着汽油价格和其他生活成本的上涨，特朗普的支持率有所下滑，因此他加大了对美联储降息的压力。

特朗普在多次批评美联储降息力度不足后，任命沃什接替鲍威尔担任美联储主席。但沃什上任后的首项重大举措却是加息，许多人认为这表明他不会让政治干预美联储的政策。

然而，如果美联储如预期般维持利率不变，沃什可能需要比以往更加努力地向美国民众解释，政治日程并未影响美联储的决定。（尽管美联储主席在美联储拥有相当大的权力，但这一职位在12人委员会中仅占一票。）

安永-帕特农首席经济学家格雷戈里·达科上周在一份报告中表示：“收紧政策不能被视为反对政府的举措，而维持现状也不能被视为宽松政策。”

与此同时，美国银行美国经济研究主管阿迪亚·巴韦指出，由于投资者预期美联储将维持利率不变，此时加息可能会让市场措手不及，并在本已紧张的时期引发进一步的波动。