Israeli exit polls show deadlock, setback for Netanyahu

Israel’s election appeared deadlocked on Tuesday, with exit polls giving Gadi Eisenkot’s bloc a 52-50 edge over Benjamin Netanyahu’s Likud-led camp and no clear path to a majority. Eisenkot could get the first chance to form a government, but his rejection of a partnership with Arab parties complicates that effort, while Netanyahu could remain caretaker prime minister during coalition talks. Final results could take days, and smaller parties may prove decisive.

Turnout reached 77.7 percent, the highest in more than two decades and about 7 percentage points above the 2022 election.

The exit polls allocated the remaining 18 seats to unaligned Arab parties, while pro-Netanyahu Channel 14 projected that Netanyahu’s parties would win 60 seats.

The Knesset has 120 seats, and no single party has ever won 61 seats outright.

Yohanan Plesner said the exit polls showed Netanyahu’s coalition falling from 68 seats in the outgoing Knesset to about 50, while cautioning that the count could change.

Gadi Eisenkot opposes Palestinian statehood and says Hamas’ military wing must be destroyed or dismantled; he called Israel’s response a failure because Hamas remains in charge.

Published Oct 28, 2026 8:03 am KST

Israel's National Security Minister Itamar Ben-Gvir, center, leader of the Jewish Power (Otzma Yehudit) party, addresses supporters following exit polls at the party's election headquarters during Israel's national election, in Modiin, Israel, Oct. 27. Reuters-Yonhap

JERUSALEM — Israel's wartime election appeared deadlocked on Tuesday, exit polls showed, a potential setback for veteran Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu if the projections hold, with neither side having a clear path to power but rival Gadi Eisenkot's larger bloc potentially giving him the first chance to form a government.

The stalemate could yet work in Netanyahu's favour, allowing him to remain in power in a caretaker capacity while parties try to forge a governing coalition.

Turnout was 77.7 percent, Israel's Central Elections Committee said, the highest in more than two decades and around 7 percentage points higher than in the previous election in 2022.

Israel's three major networks updated their exit polls, giving Eisenkot's bloc a two-seat edge over Netanyahu's Likud-led camp, at 52-50.

The remaining 18 seats were allocated to unaligned Arab parties in the exit polls. But Eisenkot, leader of the Yashar party, has all but ruled out forming a government with them, complicating his path to a majority despite his bloc's lead.

Some Israeli media outlets, including pro-Netanyahu Channel 14, projected a far stronger showing for Netanyahu and his parties, saying they would collectively win 60 seats.

Final results could take days, and Israel's fragmented political system leaves smaller parties potential kingmakers. No single party has ever won 61 seats outright in the 120-seat Knesset, making coalitions the norm.

It was the first election since the Hamas-led attacks of October 7, 2023, and the ensuing wars in Gaza, Lebanon and Iran.

Yohanan Plesner, president of the Israel Democracy Institute, called the exit polls a major defeat for Netanyahu's coalition, which they showed falling from 68 seats in the outgoing Knesset to about 50. But he said Eisenkot had not emerged as a clear winner.

Plesner cautioned that much could change as votes were counted. If the final result mirrored the exit polls, he said, Eisenkot could try to form a minority government that would remove Netanyahu from power, even if it lasted only until another election.

Supporters of Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu react to the first exit polls at a Likud party election event in Jerusalem, Oct. 27. EPA-Yonhap

Anti-Netanyahu boost

While there was no clear outcome, the exit polls reflected the strength of the anti-Netanyahu opposition.

Opposition leader Yair Lapid said in a statement: “Don’t let anyone confuse you: the Netanyahu bloc has suffered a crushing defeat. This is a total collapse and the public has told them to go home.”

Eisenkot, 66, a hawkish former military chief who lost a son and two nephews in the Gaza war, emerged as Netanyahu's strongest challenger, stressing his security credentials while positioning himself as a centrist domestically.

He entered politics only four years ago and joined Netanyahu's war cabinet after the 2023 Hamas attack, but quit eight months later, criticising the prime minister's leadership.

Eisenkot offers a break with Netanyahu's leadership and far-right allies, but not with the hardline approach to security that has become more entrenched since the 2023 Hamas attack: He opposes Palestinian statehood and says Hamas' military wing must be destroyed or dismantled.

Eisenkot says Israel's response — a war that has killed more than 74,000 Palestinians, according to Gaza health authorities — was a failure because Hamas remains in charge.

"Dear Democrats, a decision was made," Yair Golan, leader of the Democrats party and a Netanyahu rival, said at a party rally after polls closed. "The nation has given us a sacred duty: to translate the trust they have placed in us into action, to fortify democracy, to save Israel and to provide true defense for the state."

The headquarters of the Joint List, an alliance of several Arab parties, burst into whistles and applause when exit polls were released at the close of voting, on a historic night for turnout among Palestinian citizens of Israel.

“We refuse the occupation and racism, and we will remain here,” said Faten Gattas, a candidate in the Joint List, in a speech at the alliance’s headquarters in Nazareth. Candidates hoped that high Arab voter participation would allow them to play a decisive role in preventing Netanyahu’s coalition – the most far-right in Israel's history — from returning to power.

Israel's Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu sits on a bench after voting at a polling station in Jerusalem, Oct. 27, on the day of Israel's legislative election. AFP-Yonhap

Long lines had formed outside polling stations as voters turned out in huge numbers, grappling with the trauma of Israel's deadliest day, when Hamas killed 1,200 people and took 251 hostage, and the wars in Gaza and with Lebanon's Hezbollah and Iran that followed.

While Netanyahu was criticised for the country's biggest security failure, he argued that he had made Israel and the world safer by assassinating top leaders of Hamas, Hezbollah and Iran.

The policies of Netanyahu's right-wing coalition have been divisive at home and deepened Israel's international isolation, but he has portrayed himself as the leader with the mettle to face down Israel's foes.

Netanyahu, 77, has served as prime minister for nearly 19 of the past 30 years and has repeatedly survived political crises. His opponents have managed to wrest the premiership from him only once since 2009, after four inconclusive elections in two years. Eighteen months later, he was back.

He entered the election facing longstanding corruption charges, which he denies, and criticism over intelligence failures that allowed Hamas-led militants to carry out their attack.

Netanyahu campaigned on an endorsement from US President Donald Trump, his ally in the war against Iran.

周二的以色列大选似乎陷入僵局，出口民调显示，加迪·艾森科特的联盟以52%对50%的优势领先于本雅明·内塔尼亚胡领导的利库德集团，双方均未找到明确的多数派方案。艾森科特可能率先组建政府，但他拒绝与阿拉伯政党合作，这使得组阁之路更加复杂。与此同时，内塔尼亚胡可能在组阁谈判期间继续担任看守总理。最终结果可能需要数日才能出炉，小党派的选票或许会起到决定性作用。

投票率达到 77.7%，是二十多年来的最高水平，比 2022 年大选高出约 7 个百分点。

出口民调显示，剩余的 18 个席位将分配给不结盟的阿拉伯政党，而亲内塔尼亚胡的 Channel 14 则预测内塔尼亚胡的政党将赢得 60 个席位。

以色列议会共有 120 个席位，从来没有任何一个政党直接赢得过 61 个席位。

约哈南·普莱斯纳表示，出口民调显示，内塔尼亚胡的联盟在即将卸任的以色列议会中席位从 68 个减少到约 50 个，但他同时警告说，计票结果可能会发生变化。

加迪·艾森科特反对巴勒斯坦建国，并表示必须摧毁或解散哈马斯的军事部门；他称以色列的应对措施是失败的，因为哈马斯仍然掌权。

发布于2026年10月28日上午8:03（韩国标准时间）

以色列国家安全部长伊塔马尔·本-格维尔（图中）是犹太力量党（Otzma Yehudit）的领导人，他在10月27日以色列大选期间，于该党竞选总部向支持者发表讲话，此前该党公布了出口民调结果。（路透社-韩联社）

耶路撒冷——出口民调显示，以色列战时大选周二似乎陷入僵局，如果预测成真，这对资深总理本雅明·内塔尼亚胡来说可能是一个挫折，因为双方都没有明确的执政之路，但竞争对手加迪·艾森科特的较大联盟可能会让他率先获得组建政府的机会。

僵局或许反而对内塔尼亚胡有利，使他能够以看守政府的身份继续掌权，而各党派则试图组建执政联盟。

以色列中央选举委员会表示，投票率为 77.7%，是二十多年来的最高水平，比 2022 年的上一次选举高出约 7 个百分点。

以色列三大电视网更新了出口民调，结果显示艾森科特的阵营以 52 比 50 的比分领先内塔尼亚胡领导的利库德集团两席。

出口民调显示，剩余的18个席位分配给了不结盟的阿拉伯政党。但亚沙尔党领导人艾森科特几乎已经排除了与这些政党组建政府的可能性，这使得他尽管其联盟领先，但获得多数席位的道路变得更加复杂。

包括亲内塔尼亚胡的以色列第 14 频道在内的一些以色列媒体预测，内塔尼亚胡及其政党将取得更强劲的成绩，称他们将总共赢得 60 个席位。

最终结果可能需要数天才能出炉，而以色列分散的政治体制使得小党派有可能左右选举结果。在拥有120个席位的以色列议会（Knesset）中，从未有任何单一政党赢得过61个席位，因此联合执政是常态。

这是自 2023 年 10 月 7 日哈马斯领导的袭击以及随后在加沙、黎巴嫩和伊朗爆发的战争以来的首次选举。

以色列民主研究所所长约哈南·普莱斯纳称，出口民调显示内塔尼亚胡的执政联盟遭遇重大失败，其席位从上届议会的68席锐减至约50席。但他表示，艾森科特并未成为明显的赢家。

普莱斯纳提醒说，计票过程中情况可能会发生很大变化。他表示，如果最终结果与出口民调相符，艾森科特可能会尝试组建少数派政府，将内塔尼亚胡赶下台，即使这个政府只能维持到下一次选举。

10月27日，在耶路撒冷举行的利库德集团选举活动上，以色列总理内塔尼亚胡的支持者们对首批出口民调结果做出反应。（图片来源：EPA-Yonhap）

反内塔尼亚胡情绪高涨

虽然没有明确的结果，但出口民调反映了反内塔尼亚胡反对派的力量。

反对党领袖亚伊尔·拉皮德在一份声明中表示：“不要被任何人蒙蔽：内塔尼亚胡阵营遭遇了惨败。这是一场彻底的崩溃，民众已经让他们滚蛋了。”

现年 66 岁的艾森科特是一位鹰派的前军事首脑，他在加沙战争中失去了一个儿子和两个侄子。他成为内塔尼亚胡最强劲的挑战者，强调自己的安全资历，同时在国内将自己定位为中间派。

他四年前才步入政坛，在 2023 年哈马斯袭击事件后加入了内塔尼亚胡的战时内阁，但八个月后便辞职，批评了总理的领导能力。

艾森科特与内塔尼亚胡的领导层和极右翼盟友决裂，但并未改变自 2023 年哈马斯袭击事件以来日益根深蒂固的强硬安全方针：他反对巴勒斯坦建国，并表示必须摧毁或解散哈马斯的军事部门。

艾森科特表示，以色列的应对措施——据加沙卫生部门称，这场战争已造成超过 74,000 名巴勒斯坦人死亡——是失败的，因为哈马斯仍然掌权。

“亲爱的民主党同仁们，我们已经做出了决定，”民主党领袖、内塔尼亚胡的竞争对手亚伊尔·戈兰在投票结束后举行的党内集会上说道，“国家赋予了我们一项神圣的职责：将他们对我们的信任转化为行动，巩固民主，拯救以色列，并为国家提供真正的防御。”

在以色列巴勒斯坦公民投票率创历史新高的夜晚，当出口民调在投票结束时公布时，由几个阿拉伯政党组成的联盟“联合名单”的总部爆发出阵阵口哨声和掌声。

“我们拒绝占领和种族主义，我们将留在这里，”联合名单党候选人法滕·加塔斯在位于拿撒勒的联盟总部发表讲话时说道。候选人们希望阿拉伯选民的高投票率能够让他们在阻止内塔尼亚胡领导的联盟——以色列历史上最极右翼的联盟——重新掌权方面发挥决定性作用。

10月27日，以色列总理内塔尼亚胡在耶路撒冷一处投票站投票后坐在长椅上。当天是以色列议会选举日。（法新社-韩联社）

由于大量选民涌向投票站，投票站外排起了长队。他们仍在努力走出以色列历史上最惨重的一天——哈马斯杀害了 1200 人并劫持了 251 名人质——以及随后在加沙、黎巴嫩真主党和伊朗之间爆发的战争的阴影。

尽管内塔尼亚胡因该国最大的安全失误而受到批评，但他辩称，通过暗杀哈马斯、真主党和伊朗的高级领导人，他使以色列和世界更加安全。

内塔尼亚胡右翼联盟的政策在国内造成了分裂，加深了以色列的国际孤立，但他把自己塑造成一位有胆识对抗以色列敌人的领导人。

现年77岁的内塔尼亚胡在过去30年中担任总理近19年，并多次成功渡过政治危机。自2009年以来，他的反对派仅在两年内举行四次无果而终的选举后，才从他手中夺走总理之位。18个月后，他又重新掌权。

他参加选举时面临着长期的腐败指控（他否认这些指控），以及因情报失误而受到的批评，正是这些失误使得哈马斯领导的武装分子得以发动袭击。

内塔尼亚胡的竞选得到了美国总统唐纳德·特朗普的支持，特朗普是他在对伊朗战争中的盟友。