Iran and Ukraine wars: Why ship fuel is running short, and why it matters

There’s less crude in the market, and refiners prefer to produce diesel. The result: Ships are running short of fuel. And that could impact global trade.

A general cargo ship lies anchored among other commercial vessels in the Strait of Hormuz, off Bandar Abbas, Iran [File: Vahid Salemi/AP]

The shipping industry, already heavily constrained by restrictions on transit through key waterways such as the Strait of Hormuz, faces another challenge stemming from the US-Israel war on Iran and Russia’s war on Ukraine: a shortage of fuel oil used by ships and power plants.

The fuel used by ships powers the transport of large cargoes around the world. Any shortage of this fuel could drive up global freight costs, which could in turn affect consumers and manufacturers of goods and commodities.

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Most ships and oil tankers mainly use heavy fuel oil (HFO), commonly known as bunker fuel, to power their engines. This fuel is produced when crude oil is refined.

Other commonly used marine fuels include marine gas oil (used by smaller vessels), marine diesel oil (used in marine engines) and less polluting fuels like very low sulphur fuel oil (VLSFO).

Why is ship fuel running low and why does it matter?

Here’s what we know:

Why is ship fuel running low?

According to analysts, the wars in West Asia and Europe, along with refiners opting to produce more profitable fuels, have contributed to the shortage.

Middle East fuel oil exports were down by 45 percent year on year to an average of 447,000 barrels per day from March to August, data from energy trade analytics firm Kpler shows.

Energy consultancy Energy Aspects told Reuters news agency that it expects the fuel oil market to face a deficit of 218,000 bpd in the third quarter. This is the first shortfall it has estimated since the third quarter of 2025, when it was a marginal 6,000 bpd.

How have wars in West Asia and the Russia-Ukraine war impacted fuel oil?

The US-Israel war on Iran has paralysed key maritime trade routes like the Strait of Hormuz, through which about 20 percent of global oil and gas passed before the start of the war.

Iran has also hit multiple oil facilities in the Gulf in retaliation against the US.

Attacks by Yemen’s Iran-aligned Houthis on shipping in the Red Sea and around the strategic Bab al-Mandeb Strait, one of the world’s most important shipping routes, have also disrupted shipping and constrained supply routes.

Besides the war on Iran, Russia’s ongoing war on Ukraine has also impacted oil supplies. Ukraine has in recent weeks bombed multiple major Russian refineries.

Russia is the world’s second-largest exporter of crude oil. Ukrainian drone attacks have affected Russia’s refinery output, with its fuel oil exports in August hitting a record low 591,000 bpd, down from an average of over 860,000 bpd in 2025, according to Kpler data going ⁠back to 2017.

The net result: less crude is being shipped out from key oil-producing regions, especially the Gulf and Russia.

That has meant an overall shortage in supplies of crude. And oil companies aren’t prioritising fuel oil as their product of choice.

What are refiners prioritising with the crude oil they’re getting?

Petrol, diesel and jet fuel, which are also produced when crude oil is refined, have all been impacted. But products like diesel tend to help suppliers generate higher profits, and they prioritise it over products like fuel oil.

According to Kpler, Nigeria’s 650,000-bpd Dangote refinery, for instance, has ramped up diesel, petrol and jet fuel exports, while its fuel oil exports have dropped.

Market observer Sunil Reddy said in a post on X on Monday that one of the key reasons for a global ship-fuel shortage is “the extraordinary profitability of diesel”.

“When diesel cracks [or] spreads become extremely high, refiners have a powerful incentive to squeeze as much diesel and [petrol] as possible out of every barrel. That changes what happens to the heavier part of crude,” he said.

He explained that in the refining process, instead of “allowing more of that heavy [oil] residue to remain as fuel oil for ships, refiners will send it through secondary processing units and upgrade it into higher-value products such as diesel”.

“So, extremely strong diesel margins effectively start pulling barrels away from the bunker-fuel market,” he said, adding that this would increase ship-fuel prices as well.

Which regions will be most impacted?

While a drop in ship fuel will have a large-scale impact on global shipping, Asia could be particularly affected because of its dependence on the Gulf.

According to Kpler data, Singapore, the world’s largest bunker hub, imports more than half of the nearly one million ⁠bpd of fuel oil it consumes. A drop in fuel oil supplies has also led to a rise in the price of shipping fuels like VLSFO.

In Singapore, the price of this fuel is up 76 percent since the war on Iran began to just less than $825 per metric tonne, or $130 a barrel, as of September 1, according to data ⁠from bunker price platform ZeroNorth.

Besides Singapore, fuel oil stocks in Amsterdam-Rotterdam-Antwerp in the Netherlands and Fujairah in the United Arab Emirates are also about 30 percent below their three-year seasonal averages, according to Reuters.

Market observer Reddy said on X: “The world economy is built on thousands of interdependent supply chains. One product depends on another country for raw materials, another for processing, another for machinery, another for energy.”

“Without ships, globalisation breaks. When ship fuel becomes too scarce or too expensive, many things don’t just become more expensive,” he added.

“At some point, some trade simply stops making economic sense.”

原油供应减少，炼油厂更倾向于生产柴油。结果是：船舶燃料短缺。这可能会影响全球贸易。

一艘杂货船与其他商船一起停泊在伊朗阿巴斯港附近的霍尔木兹海峡。[图片：Vahid Salemi/AP]

航运业已经受到霍尔木兹海峡等主要水道通行限制的严重制约，如今又面临着来自美国和以色列对伊朗的战争以及俄罗斯对乌克兰的战争的另一个挑战：船舶和发电厂使用的燃油短缺。

船舶使用的燃料为全球大型货物的运输提供动力。任何燃料短缺都可能推高全球货运成本，进而影响商品和货物的消费者和制造商。

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大多数船舶和油轮主要使用重质燃油（HFO），俗称船用燃料油，来驱动发动机。这种燃料是在原油提炼过程中产生的。

其他常用的船用燃料包括船用轻柴油（小型船舶使用）、船用柴油（船用发动机使用）以及污染较小的燃料，如超低硫燃料油（VLSFO）。

为什么船舶燃料会减少？这又有什么关系呢？

我们目前掌握的情况如下：

为什么船舶燃料即将耗尽？

分析人士认为，西亚和欧洲的战争，以及炼油商选择生产利润更高的燃料，都加剧了燃料短缺。

能源贸易分析公司 Kpler 的数据显示，3 月至 8 月，中东燃料油出口量同比下降 45%，平均每天 44.7 万桶。

能源咨询公司Energy Aspects告诉路透社，预计第三季度燃油市场将面临21.8万桶/日的供应缺口。这是该公司自2025年第三季度以来首次预测出现供应缺口，当时的缺口仅为6000桶/日。

西亚战争和俄乌战争对燃油行业产生了哪些影响？

美国和以色列对伊朗的战争瘫痪了霍尔木兹海峡等重要的海上贸易航线，在战争开始前，全球约 20% 的石油和天然气都要经过这里。

伊朗还袭击了海湾地区的多个石油设施，以报复美国。

也门胡塞武装（伊朗支持的武装组织）对红海和具有战略意义的曼德海峡（世界上最重要的航运路线之一）附近的船只发动袭击，扰乱了航运并限制了补给路线。

除了对伊朗的战争，俄罗斯持续不断的对乌克兰战争也影响了石油供应。近几周来，乌克兰轰炸了俄罗斯多家大型炼油厂。

俄罗斯是世界第二大原油出口国。乌克兰无人机袭击影响了俄罗斯炼油厂的产量，根据Kpler自2017年以来的数据，俄罗斯8月份的燃料油出口量跌至历史新低，仅为59.1万桶/日，低于2025年平均每天超过86万桶/日的水平。

最终结果是：主要产油地区（尤其是海湾地区和俄罗斯）的原油出口量减少。

这意味着原油供应整体短缺。而且，石油公司并没有将燃料油作为优先产品。

炼油厂优先处理他们获得的原油的哪些产品？

原油提炼过程中产生的汽油、柴油和航空煤油都受到了影响。但像柴油这样的产品往往能为供应商带来更高的利润，因此他们会优先供应柴油，而不是像燃油这样的产品。

据 Kpler 称，例如，尼日利亚日产能 65 万桶的 Dangote 炼油厂已加大柴油、汽油和航空燃油的出口，而其燃料油出口则有所下降。

市场观察人士 Sunil Reddy 周一在 X 网站上发帖称，全球船舶燃料短缺的关键原因之一是“柴油的超高利润”。

他说：“当柴油裂解价差或价差变得非常高时，炼油商就有很强的动机从每一桶原油中榨取尽可能多的柴油和汽油。这会改变原油中较重部分的命运。”

他解释说，在炼油过程中，“炼油厂不会让更多的重质[油]残渣继续作为船舶燃料油，而是会将其送入二次加工装置，并将其升级为柴油等更高价值的产品”。

“因此，柴油利润率极高，实际上开始将大量原油从船用燃料油市场拉走，”他说道，并补充说，这也将推高船用燃料价格。

哪些地区受影响最大？

船舶燃料价格下跌将对全球航运产生大规模影响，而亚洲由于依赖海湾地区，受到的影响可能尤为严重。

根据Kpler的数据，新加坡是全球最大的燃油供应中心，其每日消耗的近100万桶燃油中，超过一半依赖进口。燃油供应的下降也导致了超低硫燃油（VLSFO）等船用燃料价格的上涨。

根据燃油价格平台 ZeroNorth 的数据，截至 9 月 1 日，新加坡的这种燃料价格自伊朗战争开始以来上涨了 76%，达到每公吨不到 825 美元，即每桶 130 美元。

据路透社报道，除新加坡外，荷兰阿姆斯特丹-鹿特丹-安特卫普和阿联酋富查伊拉的燃油库存也比三年季节平均水平低约 30%。

市场观察员雷迪在X网站上表示：“世界经济建立在数千条相互依存的供应链之上。一种产品依赖另一个国家提供原材料，另一个国家提供加工服务，另一个国家提供机械设备，另一个国家提供能源。”

“没有船舶，全球化就会崩溃。当船舶燃料过于稀缺或过于昂贵时，很多东西的价格不仅仅会上涨，”他补充道。

“在某种程度上，某些贸易就不再具有经济意义了。”