Can Iran enforce a restricted zone in the Strait of Hormuz?

Iran unveils plans for a restricted zone, but will Tehran be able to enforce it amid escalating tensions with the US?

Vessels are seen in the Strait of Hormuz, off the port city of Bandar Abbas in southern Iran [File: AFP]

Iran says it plans to establish a new restricted zone around the Strait of Hormuz, a global energy chokepoint, after Tehran and Washington traded attacks on ships in the crucial waterway in what experts called a “dangerous escalation”.

The two sides have been engaged in on-and-off attacks since a 60-day memorandum of understanding (MoU), signed on June 17, expired last month.

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The latest escalation started after Iran targeted US warships patrolling and escorting oil tankers trying to evade the Tehran-imposed blockade of the strait. Meanwhile, a US naval blockade of the Iranian ports has drastically restricted its oil and other trade.

The MoU, which had ended the months-long military hostility, collapsed after 60 days due to disputes over who had ultimate control over the Strait of Hormuz, which Iran has used as leverage in the war against the United States.

Oil tankers have become the latest targets in the US-Israel war on Iran, with Tehran repeatedly warning vessels against using unauthorised routes through the Strait of Hormuz amid reports that a growing number of oil tankers are passing through the waterway. Prior to the start of the war, 20 percent of the world’s oil and gas supplies flowed through the strait.

So, where exactly will Iran’s proposed zone be, what restrictions will apply, and how does Tehran intend to enforce this?

What did Iran say about the restrictive zone?

Iran’s Supreme National Security Council Secretary Mohsen Rezaei said the zone would be announced in the coming days.

“This zone will start from the US Navy’s blockade line and include areas of the Persian Gulf,” he said, according to Iranian state media. “Any ship entering this new zone will be placed on the sanctions list [of Iran].”

Rezaei said the zone would “begin from the line of the US naval blockade, extend toward the Strait of Hormuz, and from this side continue into the Persian Gulf”.

However, Tehran has provided few details about the zone’s precise boundaries or what being placed on its sanctions list would mean for vessels entering it.

Rezaei said new maps detailing routes, worked on in conjunction with Oman for the Hormuz Strait, would also be approved soon.

“The maps of a new international corridor which lies in Iranian and Omani waters and in which Iran will have management have been agreed and should be signed in the coming days,” he added.

“We will only commit to the Strait of Hormuz being open when they [the Americans] stop the sabotage, threats and attacks on Iran.”

The announcement comes after Deputy Foreign Minister Kazem Gharibabadi said late last month that Iran and Oman had agreed on a temporary maritime route for ships travelling through the Strait of Hormuz, whose entry “would be through our territorial waters, and part of the exit route would also be through our territorial waters”.

How have the US and the world reacted?

There has been no immediate US or wider international response specifically to Rezaei’s announcement of the new zone.

However, on Sunday, Washington rejected an Iranian claim reported in local media that a US vessel had attempted to enter an area Tehran considers restricted and was attacked.

US Central Command (CENTCOM) spokesperson Captain Tim Hawkins called the Iranian account “a total lie”.

The alleged attack comes days after Washington targeted three Iranian oil tankers and Tehran hit tankers and fired a ballistic missile towards US warships patrolling near the Strait of Hormuz.

Doesn’t Iran already prescribe a route for ships through Hormuz?

Yes. Iran is already demanding that vessels use routes it approves through the strait.

Iran first published a map of its approved navigation routes in April, directing vessels much closer to the Iranian coastline than they travelled before the war. The route currently authorised by it follows a corridor along Iran’s coast.

But Iran’s attempt to control navigation has been challenged by a separate route closer to Oman.

In June, Oman, working with the International Maritime Organization (IMO), a United Nations agency that oversees shipping at sea, laid out a southern corridor intended to restore safe navigation through the strait.

A Liberian-flagged tanker, the Stoic Warrior, subsequently used a route that took it close to the coasts of the United Arab Emirates and Oman before passing around the Musandam Peninsula, an Omani exclave.

The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) objected to it, declaring that “the only authorised route” was the one announced by Iran and warning that vessels crossing without its permission would be “unacceptable and extremely dangerous”.

Following the 14-point MoU signed in June in the Swiss city of Geneva, traffic in the strait had picked up. But the resumption of attacks has severely limited commercial shipping in and around the key waterway.

Under the MoU, the US agreed to end its naval blockade within 30 days, while Iran pledged to clear mines from the Strait of Hormuz and allow ships to pass “with no charge” for 60 days.

What is the current status of traffic in the Strait of Hormuz?

Traffic is still getting through, but at substantially reduced levels.

Before the conflict, about 20 million barrels of crude oil per day flowed through the waterway. US Energy Secretary Chris Wright, speaking to media on Sunday, said current transits were averaging more than nine million barrels of oil per day.

When pipelines bypassing the strait are included, Wright said flows were probably at “two-thirds or more of pre-conflict flows”.

“So Iranians are still causing trouble, but the United States Navy is winning that battle,” he said.

Bolstering US claims was the United Kingdom Maritime Trade Operations (UKMTO) Centre, which on Sunday said 59 ships passed through the Strait of Hormuz in the previous 48 hours.

US President Donald Trump has repeatedly claimed that the waterway is under Washington’s control despite near-daily Iranian attacks on ships, going so far as to suggest renaming the Strait of Hormuz after himself.

Iran has disputed claims of growing traffic, claiming its chokehold on the waterway continues.

However, recent data from other maritime tracking companies and websites paints a mixed picture. Figures show only six vessels crossed the strait on Wednesday, 11 on Tuesday and five last Monday, with a 10-day average of just 13 vessels per day.

On Monday, marine analytics firm Kpler showed that an average of 10 commodity ships transited the strait per ⁠⁠day over the past 10 days, the lowest since May.

Before the US and Israel launched the war on Iran on February 28, more than 130 ships passed daily through the strait, which allowed free navigation. Now, the Trump administration is negotiating with Iran to open the strait.

Meanwhile, Iran’s nuclear programme, which Trump and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu invoked to launch the war, has vanished from the headlines.

Can Iran militarily enforce a new zone?

Tehran has so far demonstrated an ability to make passage through Hormuz dangerous, forcing ships to avoid the waterway. At least 19 seafarers have been killed and dozens of ships attacked since March.

Whether it can militarily enforce the much broader zone Rezaei has proposed – particularly against vessels protected by the US military – remains to be seen.

Stephen Zunes, founding chair of Middle Eastern Studies at the University of San Francisco, says Iran will struggle to enforce a restricted zone near the Strait of Hormuz.

“It’s hard to see how they will really be able to enforce it. Iranian ships and planes trying to enforce that would be very vulnerable to US attacks,” he told Al Jazeera. “But perhaps they are giving a warning, given there still would be some risk for shipping companies to not count on being able to get through the strait without suffering consequences.”

Zunes said Iran may be hoping to provoke a broader US military response, which could benefit Tehran politically by “justifying attacks” on neighbouring Gulf countries and US military facilities in the region.

That, in turn, could help Iran, as public opinion in the US seems against continuing the conflict, while pushing the Iranian public to “rally around the flag” amid growing economic hardship at home.

Moreover, Zunes noted, Iran’s plan for a restricted zone could be linked to its pending deal with Oman on shipping routes through the waterway.

If the deal with Oman is workable and something the US can accept, Iran could “pull back” from enforcing the restricted zone, Zunes said.

If not, then Tehran has “something ready to try to make it more problematic for Washington” to refuse the deal with Oman.

伊朗公布了设立限制区的计划，但在与美国的紧张关系不断升级的情况下，德黑兰能否有效执行该计划？

在伊朗南部港口城市阿巴斯港附近的霍尔木兹海峡，可以看到船只航行。[图片来源：法新社]

伊朗表示，计划在霍尔木兹海峡（全球能源咽喉要道）周围建立一个新的限制区。此前，德黑兰和华盛顿在这一关键水道上互相袭击船只，专家称之为“危险的升级”。

自 6 月 17 日签署的为期 60 天的谅解备忘录 (MoU) 于上个月到期以来，双方一直断断续续地进行着攻击。

列表 1（共 3 条）：多极格局赋予中等强国更多选择，但保障更少。

列表 2/3 美国和伊朗陷入油轮战争：这场持续数月的冲突将走向何方？

伊朗吹嘘军事回应，美国维持封锁，袭击油轮（共3条，第3条）

最新一轮冲突升级始于伊朗袭击了正在巡逻并护送试图突破德黑兰封锁的油轮的美国军舰。与此同时，美国对伊朗港口的海上封锁已严重限制了伊朗的石油和其他贸易。

结束了长达数月军事敌对状态的谅解备忘录在 60 天后破裂，原因是双方对霍尔木兹海峡的最终控制权存在争议，而伊朗一直利用霍尔木兹海峡作为对抗美国的筹码。

油轮已成为美以对伊战争的最新目标。德黑兰方面多次警告船只不要未经授权穿越霍尔木兹海峡，与此同时，有报道称越来越多的油轮正在通过该海峡。战争爆发前，全球20%的石油和天然气供应都经由该海峡运输。

那么，伊朗提议的区域究竟在哪里？会有哪些限制？德黑兰打算如何执行这些限制？

伊朗对限制区说了什么？

伊朗最高国家安全委员会秘书穆赫辛·雷扎伊表示，该区域将在未来几天内公布。

据伊朗国家媒体报道，他表示：“这一区域将从美国海军的封锁线开始，包括波斯湾的部分区域。任何进入这一新区域的船只都将被列入伊朗的制裁名单。”

雷扎伊表示，该区域将“从美国海军封锁线开始，向霍尔木兹海峡延伸，并从这一侧继续进入波斯湾”。

然而，德黑兰方面很少透露该区域的具体边界，也没有说明被列入制裁名单对进入该区域的船只意味着什么。

雷扎伊表示，与阿曼合作绘制的霍尔木兹海峡航线新地图也将很快获得批准。

他补充说：“位于伊朗和阿曼水域、由伊朗管理的新国际走廊的地图已经达成一致，应该会在未来几天内签署。”

“只有当他们（美国人）停止对伊朗的破坏、威胁和攻击时，我们才会承诺开放霍尔木兹海峡。”

此前，伊朗副外长卡齐姆·加里巴巴迪上个月底表示，伊朗和阿曼已就途经霍尔木兹海峡的船只的临时海上航线达成一致，船只“将从我们的领海进入，部分出港航线也将从我们的领海进入”。

美国和世界对此有何反应？

目前美国或国际社会尚未对雷扎伊宣布设立新区域一事作出直接回应。

然而，周日，华盛顿方面驳斥了伊朗当地媒体报道的一项说法，即一艘美国船只试图进入德黑兰认为的禁区并遭到袭击。

美国中央司令部（CENTCOM）发言人蒂姆·霍金斯上尉称伊朗的说法“完全是谎言”。

据称，此次袭击发生在华盛顿袭击三艘伊朗油轮，以及德黑兰袭击油轮并向在霍尔木兹海峡附近巡逻的美国军舰发射弹道导弹几天之后。

伊朗不是已经规定了船只途经霍尔木兹海峡的航线吗？

是的。伊朗已经要求船只使用其批准的通过霍尔木兹海峡的航线。

伊朗于今年4月首次公布了其批准的航行路线图，引导船只比战前更靠近伊朗海岸线航行。目前伊朗批准的航线沿着伊朗海岸线延伸。

但伊朗试图控制航行路线的努力受到了另一条靠近阿曼的路线的挑战。

6 月，阿曼与负责海上航运的联合国机构国际海事组织 (IMO) 合作，制定了一条南部走廊，旨在恢复海峡的安全航行。

一艘悬挂利比里亚国旗的油轮“斯多葛勇士号”随后选择了一条靠近阿拉伯联合酋长国和阿曼海岸的航线，然后绕过了阿曼的飞地穆桑达姆半岛。

伊朗伊斯兰革命卫队（IRGC）对此表示反对，并宣称“唯一授权的路线”是伊朗宣布的路线，并警告说，未经伊朗许可而穿越伊朗的船只“是不可接受的，而且极其危险”。

继6月份在瑞士日内瓦签署的14点谅解备忘录之后，海峡的航运有所改善。但袭击事件的再次发生严重限制了这条重要水道及其周边地区的商业航运。

根据谅解备忘录，美国同意在 30 天内结束其海上封锁，而伊朗承诺清除霍尔木兹海峡的水雷，并允许船只“免费”通过 60 天。

霍尔木兹海峡目前的交通状况如何？

交通仍然畅通，但流量大幅减少。

冲突爆发前，每天约有2000万桶原油经由这条水道运输。美国能源部长克里斯·赖特周日对媒体表示，目前日均原油运输量超过900万桶。

赖特表示，如果将绕过海峡的管道也计算在内，那么流量可能达到“冲突前流量的三分之二或更多”。

“所以伊朗人仍在制造麻烦，但美国海军正在赢得这场战斗，”他说。

英国海事贸易运营中心（UKMTO）周日表示，在过去 48 小时内，有 59 艘船只通过了霍尔木兹海峡，这进一步佐证了美国的说法。

尽管伊朗几乎每天都对船只发动袭击，美国总统唐纳德·特朗普仍一再声称该水道处于华盛顿的控制之下，甚至提议将霍尔木兹海峡以他自己的名字重新命名。

伊朗否认了有关交通量增长的说法，声称其对该水道的控制依然稳固。

然而，其他海事追踪公司和网站的最新数据显示，情况却喜忧参半。数据显示，周三只有6艘船穿越海峡，周二11艘，上周一5艘，过去10天的平均日均通行量仅为13艘。

周一，海洋分析公司 Kpler 的数据显示，过去 10 天里，平均每天有 10 艘商品船通过海峡，这是自 5 月以来的最低水平。

在美以两国于2月28日对伊朗发动战争之前，每天有超过130艘船只通过霍尔木兹海峡，航行自由。如今，特朗普政府正与伊朗谈判，试图重新开放该海峡。

与此同时，特朗普和以色列总理内塔尼亚胡曾援引伊朗核计划发动战争，而伊朗核计划却从新闻头条消失了。

伊朗能否通过军事手段划定新的区域？

迄今为止，德黑兰已展现出使霍尔木兹海峡航行变得危险的能力，迫使船只避开该水道。自3月以来，至少有19名海员丧生，数十艘船只遭到袭击。

能否以军事手段强制执行雷扎伊提议的更广泛的区域——特别是针对受美国军方保护的船只——还有待观察。

旧金山大学中东研究创始主席斯蒂芬·祖内斯表示，伊朗将很难在霍尔木兹海峡附近实施限制区。

“很难想象他们究竟要如何才能真正执行这项禁令。伊朗的船只和飞机如果试图执行禁令，将极易受到美国的攻击，”他告诉半岛电视台。“但或许他们是在发出警告，因为航运公司仍然不能指望能够毫发无损地通过海峡。”

祖内斯表示，伊朗可能希望激起美国更广泛的军事反应，这或许能为伊朗在海湾邻国和该地区的美国军事设施发动袭击“提供正当理由”，从而在政治上使德黑兰受益。

反过来，这可能对伊朗有所帮助，因为美国公众舆论似乎反对继续冲突，同时在国内经济日益困难的情况下，促使伊朗公众“团结在国旗周围”。

此外，祖内斯指出，伊朗设立限制区的计划可能与其即将与阿曼就通过该水道的航运路线达成的协议有关。

祖内斯表示，如果与阿曼达成的协议可行，并且美国可以接受，伊朗可能会“放弃”执行限制区规定。

否则，德黑兰“已经准备好了一些手段，试图让华盛顿更难”拒绝与阿曼达成的协议。