Israel election results: No clear winner projected, what’s next?

President Isaac Herzog will task the strongest candidate with forming government once results are finalised.

Supporters of former military chief Gadi Eisenkot, leader of the Yashar party, react following national election exit polls at his party headquarters in Tel Aviv, Israel, October 28, 2026 [Shir Torem/Reuters]

Exit polls from Israel’s legislative elections have come in, with no party or bloc projected to secure a clear mandate to form a new government.

According to The Times of Israel, the partial results give Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s bloc 56 seats and the opposition alliance 48.

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That could leave neither bloc with the 61 seats needed for a majority in the 120-seat parliament, setting the stage for weeks or months of political jockeying to form Israel’s next government.

The results also show the Arab-led parties, which are not part of either coalition, on course to secure 16 seats. This means the Arab-led parties could emerge as kingmakers if other parties agree to join forces with them.

Here’s what comes next:

What are the exit poll projections for the Israeli parties?

Here’s the breakdown, according to The Times of Israel, with over 66 percent of ballots counted.

Netanyahu’s ruling bloc is leading on 56 seats:

United Torah Judaism – 8

Religious Zionism – 6

The opposition alliance is ahead on 48 seats:

Arab-led parties are on course to win 16 seats:

How have parties reacted?

Gadi Eisenkot, the main challenger to the incumbent prime minister, said the exit polls show a “lack of confidence” in Netanyahu, while Yair Lapid, the current opposition leader, said the prime minister’s bloc has suffered a “crushing defeat”.

“This is a total collapse, and the public has told them to go home,” Lapid said.

But Gideon Saar, Israel’s foreign minister and a member of Netanyahu’s Likud party, said the opposition’s celebrations were premature.

In a social media post, he said: “Likud is the largest party in Israel. It is always good to learn something from the past.”

Netanyahu, who heads Likud, has served as prime minister for nearly 19 of the past 30 years and has repeatedly survived political crises.

Ehab Jabareen, a Palestinian political analyst and researcher based in Israel, told Al Jazeera that early exit poll projections show “a clear weakening of Netanyahu’s bloc” but expressed caution about “declaring either a Netanyahu victory or the end of his political career”.

“The exit polls suggest that his bloc has lost its majority, but they also suggest that his opponents face a difficult task in building one,” he said. “If neither side can form a government, Netanyahu could remain in office as caretaker while the negotiations continue.”

Who will the president nominate to form a government?

It remains to be seen.

Once the final vote tally is announced on November 4, Israeli President Isaac Herzog will speak with party leaders about who they want as prime minister, then tap the candidate he believes has the best chance of forming a government.

That will not necessarily be the leader of the party that won the most seats in the Knesset.

With Netanyahu and Eisenkot’s parties emerging as the strongest, the two are viewed as leading contenders.

How much time will the invited leader have to form a coalition?

Up to 42 days. The candidate initially has 28 days, but the president can extend it by 14 days.

During this time, parties could engage in intensive negotiations and dealmaking, seeking policy concessions or potential ministerial portfolios, as the designated candidate tries to cobble together enough support to govern.

If the candidate cannot assemble a coalition with at least 61 seats, they could also try to form a minority government by relying on support from smaller parties, or negotiate a power-sharing arrangement with alternating prime ministers.

To be sworn in, a new government must win a parliamentary confidence vote by a simple majority, which can be fewer than 61 votes if a number of parties abstain.

What if negotiations fail?

If the first candidate fails to form a government, Herzog has the option of asking another Knesset member to try to do so within 28 days. If that candidate also fails, a majority of Knesset members could put forward a third candidate, who would have a final 14 days to try to assemble one.

If the Knesset remains at an impasse, it would be formally dissolved, and Israelis would return to the polls for another round of elections.

Those elections would have to be called within 90 days. In the meantime, Netanyahu’s government would remain in office as a caretaker government.

Has this happened before?

Prolonged gridlock in the Knesset forced Israelis into three rounds of elections between April 2019 and March 2020. The result was a power-sharing agreement between Netanyahu and his then-chief rival, Benny Gantz, under which they were supposed to rotate the prime ministership.

That government collapsed a year later after failing to pass a budget.

Will the opposition form a coalition with the Arab-led parties?

While the exit polls suggest the Arab-led parties could become kingmakers, both Netanyahu and Eisenkot have ruled out partnering with them, citing a lack of shared values.

Asaf Ronel, an Israeli political analyst, said that while exit polls suggest an end to Netanyahu’s “nightmarish government”, there are serious questions about whether other leaders can overcome their “racism and refusal” to collaborate with the Arab-led groups.

“The question now is whether they can let go of their racist election promise, otherwise the most likely scenario is that we are back to another round of elections in the next few months,” he said.

Mohamad Bazzi, director of the Hagop Kevorkian Center for Near Eastern Studies at New York University, said ignoring Arab-led parties will prove a difficult stance to maintain as negotiations continue.

“The numbers are going to make it difficult without that block, that large block, of seats for the Arab parties. It’s going to be difficult to get to that magic number,” he said, referring to the 61 seats required for a majority.

Bazzi also foresees an arrangement where the Arab parties could come to a compromise with Eisenkot’s opposition bloc.

“They could be invited in a form where they don’t actually have any ministries and where they don’t really have power in the governing coalition, but they would provide their support in the Knesset,” he explained.

一旦选举结果最终确定，总统艾萨克·赫尔佐格将委任最有力的候选人组建政府。

2026年10月28日，以色列特拉维夫，亚沙尔党领导人、前军事首脑加迪·艾森科特的支持者在其党总部对全国大选出口民调结果做出反应。[Shir Torem/路透社]

以色列立法选举的出口民调结果已经出炉，没有哪个政党或联盟预计能够获得组建新政府的明确授权。

据《以色列时报》报道，初步结果显示，总理本雅明·内塔尼亚胡的联盟获得 56 个席位，反对派联盟获得 48 个席位。

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这样一来，两个阵营都可能无法获得在120个席位的议会中获得多数所需的61个席位，从而为组建以色列下一届政府展开数周或数月的政治角力埋下伏笔。

结果还显示，不属于任何联盟的阿拉伯政党有望获得16个席位。这意味着，如果其他政党同意与他们结盟，这些阿拉伯政党可能成为决定选举结果的关键力量。

接下来是：

以色列各政党的出口民调预测结果如何？

据《以色列时报》报道，在已统计的66%以上的选票中，以下是详细结果。

内塔尼亚胡的执政联盟目前领先56个席位：

联合托拉犹太教 – 8

宗教犹太复国主义——6

反对派联盟目前领先48个席位：

阿拉伯国家主导的政党有望赢得16个席位：

各方对此作何反应？

现任总理的主要挑战者加迪·艾森科特表示，出口民调显示民众对内塔尼亚胡“缺乏信心”，而现任反对党领袖亚伊尔·拉皮德则表示，总理的阵营遭遇了“惨败”。

拉皮德说：“这里彻底崩溃了，公众已经让他们回家了。”

但以色列外交部长、内塔尼亚胡领导的利库德集团成员吉迪恩·萨尔表示，反对派的庆祝活动为时尚早。

他在社交媒体上发帖称：“利库德集团是以色列最大的政党。从过去吸取教训总是好的。”

领导利库德集团的内塔尼亚胡在过去30年中担任总理近19年，并多次成功渡过政治危机。

居住在以色列的巴勒斯坦政治分析家和研究员伊哈卜·贾巴林告诉半岛电视台，早期出口民调预测显示“内塔尼亚胡阵营明显削弱”，但他对“宣布内塔尼亚胡获胜或他的政治生涯结束”持谨慎态度。

“出口民调显示，他的阵营失去了多数席位，但也表明他的反对派组建政府面临重重困难，”他说。“如果双方都无法组建政府，内塔尼亚胡可能会在谈判继续进行期间继续担任看守政府总理。”

总统将提名谁来组建政府？

此事尚待观察。

11月4日最终计票结果公布后，以色列总统伊萨克·赫尔佐格将与各党派领导人商讨他们希望由谁担任总理，然后挑选他认为最有希望组建政府的候选人。

那不一定是赢得以色列议会最多席位的政党的领导人。

内塔尼亚胡和艾森科特的政党实力日益增强，两人被视为主要竞争者。

受邀领导人将有多少时间来组建联盟？

最多 42 天。候选人最初有 28 天的时间，但总统可以延长 14 天。

在此期间，各方可能会进行密集的谈判和交易，寻求政策让步或潜在的部长职位，因为指定的候选人会努力争取足够的支持来执政。

如果候选人无法组建至少拥有 61 个席位的联盟，他们也可以尝试依靠小党的支持组建少数派政府，或者与轮流担任总理的人协商权力分享安排。

新政府要宣誓就职，必须以简单多数票赢得议会的信任投票，如果一些政党弃权，则所需票数可能少于 61 票。

如果谈判失败怎么办？

如果第一位候选人组阁失败，赫尔佐格可以选择让另一位议员在28天内尝试组阁。如果这位候选人也失败了，议会多数议员可以推选第三位候选人，这位候选人将在最后14天内尝试组阁。

如果以色列议会继续陷入僵局，它将被正式解散，以色列人将再次投票举行新一轮选举。

这些选举必须在90天内举行。在此期间，内塔尼亚胡政府将继续作为看守政府执政。

以前发生过这种情况吗？

以色列议会长期陷入僵局，迫使以色列人在 2019 年 4 月至 2020 年 3 月期间举行了三轮选举。最终结果是内塔尼亚胡和他当时的主要竞争对手本尼·甘茨达成了一项权力分享协议，根据该协议，他们应该轮流担任总理。

一年后，由于未能通过预算，该政府垮台。

反对派会与阿拉伯政党组成联盟吗？

尽管出口民调显示阿拉伯国家领导的政党可能成为造王者，但内塔尼亚胡和艾森科特都排除了与他们合作的可能性，理由是缺乏共同价值观。

以色列政治分析家阿萨夫·罗内尔表示，虽然出口民调显示内塔尼亚胡的“噩梦般的政府”即将结束，但其他领导人能否克服他们的“种族主义和拒绝”与阿拉伯领导的团体合作，仍然存在严重的疑问。

他说：“现在的问题是，他们能否放弃带有种族主义色彩的竞选承诺，否则最有可能的情况是，在接下来的几个月里，我们将再次迎来新一轮选举。”

纽约大学哈戈普·凯沃尔基安近东研究中心主任穆罕默德·巴齐表示，随着谈判的继续，无视阿拉伯主导的各方将是一个难以维持的立场。

“如果没有阿拉伯政党占据的那大批席位，席位数量将会非常有限。要达到多数席位所需的61席将会非常困难，”他说道。

巴齐还预见到阿拉伯各方可能会与艾森科特的反对派联盟达成妥协。

他解释说：“可以邀请他们以某种形式加入，在这种形式下，他们实际上没有任何部长职位，在执政联盟中也没有真正的权力，但他们会在以色列议会提供支持。”