Election Day storm could impact voter turnout in key midterm races in the central US

A storm tracking through the central United States on Election Day could soak voters.

CNNChris Dolce2026-10-28 16:59查看原文 ↗

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A soggy storm will track through the central United States on Election Day and could influence voter turnout for key races in the region .

Exactly which races will see rain next Tuesday is still a toss-up, with questions remaining about the storm’s exact location and strength. This is normal for a forecast nearly a week away.

We’ll know more by this weekend, but for now, it’s looking like Iowa, Kansas, Michigan, Ohio and Texas might have to contend with wet conditions.

The rain will be a turnout factor in those states and for others in the central US who aren’t among the more than 35 million people who have already cast ballots through early voting.

Rainfall and other active weather tend to suppress voter turnout while sunshine has the opposite effect, multiple studies have found .

What early voting data is showing ahead of the 2026 midterms

Tuesday’s rain threat could extend from parts of the Great Lakes and Upper Midwest to the western Gulf Coast, but exactly where the storm sets up will mean the difference between staying dry, a washout or nuisance showers.

Gusty winds could accompany the rain in the Midwest and Plains, and strong thunderstorms are possible on the storm’s southern side.

Dry weather will likely bookend the storm along much of the East Coast and in the West. The only exception is coastal areas of the Mid-Atlantic and Southeast where nuisance showers can’t be completely ruled out yet.

One forecast is for sure: There will be no need to bundle up. High temperatures in most of the nation’s eastern half are forecast to be 5 to 15 degrees Fahrenheit above average. Only the Southwest will have temperatures tilting a bit cooler than average.

The breakdown below shows the forecast for some of the key states in the midterms. Keep in mind these forecasts will likely change as confidence grows in the storm’s path by this weekend.

Georgia: Likely dry with highs in the 70s and low 80s.

Iowa: Rain is likely at least part of the day, although there is still a chance showers could push out of the state by early morning. Highs are expected to reach the 50s and low 60s.

Kansas: Rainfall is a good bet in parts of the state, but how much and exactly where is still up in the air. Highs will be in the 50s and 60s.

Maine: Likely dry with highs in the 40s and lower 50s.

Michigan: Forecast models show vastly different outcomes. Some have widespread rain sweeping across much of the state, while others bring just nuisance showers to western Michigan or the Upper Peninsula. Highs will range from the 40s and 50s in the Upper Peninsula to the 60s in southern Lower Michigan.

New Hampshire: Likely dry with highs in the 40s and 50s.

North Carolina: Likely dry with highs in the 70s.

Ohio: Most forecast models keep rainfall west of the state, but it’s too early to rule out wet weather. Highs should reach the 60s.

Texas: The eastern half of Texas, especially along and east of Interstate 35, has the highest chance to see rain. Some thunderstorms are possible too. Highs will range from 80s near the coast to 60s in the state’s panhandle.

奥斯汀·约翰逊/法新社/盖蒂图片社

选举日当天，一场潮湿的暴风雨将席卷美国中部，可能会影响该地区关键选举的投票率。

下周二哪些比赛会下雨目前仍难以确定，因为暴雨的确切位置和强度仍存在疑问。对于近一周后的天气预报来说，这种情况很正常。

到本周末我们就会知道更多情况，但就目前来看，爱荷华州、堪萨斯州、密歇根州、俄亥俄州和德克萨斯州可能都要应对潮湿的天气状况。

在这些州以及美国中部其他一些尚未通过提前投票投出选票的3500多万人中，降雨将影响投票率。

多项研究发现，降雨和其他恶劣天气往往会抑制投票率，而阳光则会产生相反的效果。

2026年中期选举前的提前投票数据显示了什么？

周二的降雨威胁可能从五大湖区和中西部北部延伸到墨西哥湾西岸，但风暴究竟在哪里形成，将决定是保持干燥、遭遇暴雨还是只有恼人的阵雨。

中西部和中部平原地区可能会伴有阵风，风暴南侧可能会出现强雷暴。

东海岸大部分地区和西部地区很可能在风暴前后都保持干燥天气。唯一的例外是中大西洋和东南部沿海地区，这些地区目前还不能完全排除出现零星阵雨的可能性。

可以肯定的是：无需穿得严严实实。预计美国东部大部分地区的气温将比平均水平高出华氏5到15度。只有西南部地区的气温会略低于平均水平。

以下列出了部分中期选举关键州的预测情况。请注意，随着本周末对风暴路径的判断越来越准确，这些预测可能会有所变化。