Netanyahu is the ultimate survivor. But can he survive this time?

Ronen Zvulun/Reuters

In a political career that has spanned more than three decades, Benjamin Netanyahu has been written off too many times to count, only to prove the obituaries were penned prematurely. Israel’s election results this week appear to give the prime minister’s opponents a chance to end his run, but in the country’s ruthless political system, it’s no guarantee.

By Wednesday night, most votes had been counted. But there is no clear winner for Israel’s top post, setting up weeks — possibly months — in which Netanyahu’s political survival remains on the line.

With the vote counting nearing its conclusion, Netanyahu’s Likud party remains the largest party in the 120-seat parliament, known as the Knesset, with an estimated 26 seats. But his right-wing bloc has lost its majority, set to win only 53 seats, short of the 61-seat majority needed to govern.

Netanyahu hasn’t won. But he hasn’t lost, either — at least not yet. Now, he has to stop his rivals from building their own government, and he may survive again.

On paper, the opposition holds roughly 67 seats, but that arithmetic is fractured by ideological, national and personal rivalries. Netanyahu’s main challenger, Gadi Eisenkot , won 21 seats, but the Jewish opposition parties total only 48, well short of victory. To reach 61, they would need the support of two Arab parties, Raam and the Joint List, which are projected to win a record 19 seats between them. Analysts say that record turnout by Arabs or Palestinian citizens of Israel was in part a backlash to four years of a far-right national security minister under whom crime in the Arab community soared.

This is where the math gets complicated. Raam is an Islamist party that draws heavily from Israel’s Bedouin community. Its leader, Mansour Abbas, became the first Arab politician to join an Israeli government following the country’s 2021 election. The Joint List, projected to be the bigger Arab party, combines several smaller parties: the Communist Hadash, secularist Taal and nationalist Balad factions.

On Wednesday, Yair Golan, leader of the left-wing Democrats party, called on his partners to count the Arab parties as part of the bloc, rejecting what he called Netanyahu’s “racist division between Jewish and Arab votes.” But two of Eisenkot’s right-wing allies, Naftali Bennett and Avigdor Liberman, have opposed any government that depends on the Arab parties. (They have not issued a statement on the issue since polls closed.)

A source close to Netanyahu said his main post-election goal is to delegitimize and therefore prevent the Jewish-Arab political cooperation that could send him home.

“He is very concerned about a minority government,” the source said. Netanyahu even plans to pressure individual opposition lawmakers not to cooperate with the Arab parties. After campaigning against them throughout the election, Likud issued a statement Wednesday accusing the Arab parties of “stealing the election” through bribery, threats, violence and forgery, echoing election fraud claims from his closest ally, US President Donald Trump. The Central Elections Committee said Wednesday it was examining the complaint, but the committee had already dismissed thousands of complaints from the different parties on election day.

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Netanyahu plans to “neutralize this possibility by all means,” the source told CNN, “including launching an attack on Iran or enlisting President Trump to intervene in Israeli politics on his behalf.”

The opposition fears that Netanyahu could use a security crisis to stall or block a new government. Before the election, Netanyahu had pressed Trump to launch a joint attack on Iran, but Washington held off, partly because Israeli military chief of staff Eyal Zamir warned it could disrupt the vote. An Israeli security source told CNN the operational plans are ready and awaiting Trump’s approval, possibly after the US midterms.

“There is no way to know what Netanyahu will do,” an opposition source told CNN. “We are aware that he may try to push for another escalation.” Another source said that Netanyahu “will do everything he can not to leave the prime minister’s office, including domestic and external chaos.”

Eisenkot, a former Israel Defense Forces chief of staff, called on Israel’s security chiefs Tuesday night to remember that “Netanyahu is a caretaker prime minister, without a mandate and without public confidence.” Speaking to supporters shortly after exit polls were published, Eisenkot declared that the public “has chosen change.”

In his first reaction to the updated results since Tuesday night’s speech, Eisenkot said he remains committed to “bringing change to Israel.”

The numbers can still change. By Wednesday evening, the Central Elections Committee is expected to finish counting most ballots. Attention now turns to double-envelope ballots from home by soldiers, prisoners, hospital patients and staff, diplomats abroad and voters with disabilities. The committee estimates there are between 430,000 and 480,000 double envelopes, enough for over 10 seats. They are counted separately in a special verification process, with final results expected Thursday.

Then the political maneuvering begins in earnest.

The next step runs through President Isaac Herzog, whose post-election role is pivotal. His job here is to consult with all elected parties on the candidate they recommend as prime minister, before picking the one he believes is most likely to secure a 61-seat majority. This is not necessarily the leader of the largest party but the one with the most plausible path to a coalition.

Eisenkot is likely to collect more recommendations than Netanyahu, since the Arab parties are expected to back him.

Then the clock starts ticking.

The chosen candidate has 28 days — and a possible 14-day extension — to negotiate with other parties over cabinet posts, budgets and policies in order to form a government. If he fails, the mandate passes to another candidate for another four weeks. If he fails, too, the Knesset gets a short window to put forward an alternative candidate. If that fails, the country goes to automatic elections.

Netanyahu, as caretaker prime minister, has a built-in advantage. If Eisenkot receives the mandate first — and fails — all he needs to do is wait for his time to pass. And if Israel finds itself headed for new elections, Netanyahu will remain caretaker for months.

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Eisenkot isn’t out of options entirely.

Even without forming a government, the opposition could still leverage its parliamentary majority to replace the Knesset speaker and other key positions. That could limit Netanyahu’s ability to govern and even enable the opposition to advance legislation.

But Eisenkot, a retired lieutenant general, isn’t on his preferred battlefield. Netanyahu’s coalition remains incredibly loyal, and he doesn’t have to worry in any real way about defections. The same cannot be said for Eisenkot. His diverse coalition is far less ideologically aligned, and even the tiniest step could splinter the bloc and send the country back to elections.

For now, the focus is on Herzog, whose role is even more important given the current deadlock. With neither bloc holding a clear majority, he may try to push Netanyahu and Eisenkot to form a unity government.

“We must do everything to avoid another round of elections,” Herzog said Wednesday. He called on party leaders to come to consultations with an “open mind.”

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在长达三十余年的政治生涯中，本杰明·内塔尼亚胡曾无数次被认为政治生涯即将终结，但每一次都证明这些预言都为时尚早。本周以色列的选举结果似乎给了这位总理的反对者一个终结他政治生涯的机会，但在该国残酷的政治体制下，这并不能保证他最终能够成功。

截至周三晚间，大部分选票已经统计完毕。但以色列最高职位仍未决出胜负，这意味着内塔尼亚胡的政治前途仍将面临数周甚至数月的考验。

随着计票接近尾声，内塔尼亚胡领导的利库德集团仍然是拥有120个席位的议会（以色列议会）中最大的政党，预计获得26个席位。但他的右翼联盟已经失去了多数席位，预计只能赢得53个席位，距离执政所需的61个席位还差很远。

内塔尼亚胡还没赢，但也没输——至少目前还没输。现在，他必须阻止对手组建自己的政府，这样他或许还能再次保住饭碗。

从纸面上看，反对派大约拥有67个席位，但由于意识形态、民族和个人恩怨，这一数字并不均衡。内塔尼亚胡的主要挑战者加迪·艾森科特赢得了21个席位，但犹太反对党总共只有48个席位，远未达到获胜所需的席位。为了获得61个席位，他们需要两个阿拉伯政党——拉姆党和联合名单党——的支持，预计这两个政党将赢得创纪录的19个席位。分析人士指出，阿拉伯裔或巴勒斯坦裔以色列公民的投票率创下纪录，部分原因是他们对一位极右翼国家安全部长执政四年的反弹，在他的领导下，阿拉伯社区的犯罪率飙升。

事情到这里就变得复杂了。拉姆党是一个伊斯兰主义政党，其支持者主要来自以色列的贝都因社群。该党领导人曼苏尔·阿巴斯在2021年以色列大选后成为首位加入以色列政府的阿拉伯政治家。联合名单党预计将成为规模更大的阿拉伯政党，它由几个较小的政党组成：包括共产主义的哈达什党、世俗主义的塔阿勒党以及民族主义的巴拉德党。

周三，左翼民主党领导人亚伊尔·戈兰呼吁其盟友将阿拉伯政党纳入联盟，并驳斥了他所谓的内塔尼亚胡“在犹太选票和阿拉伯选票之间进行种族主义分裂”的做法。但艾森科特的两位右翼盟友纳夫塔利·贝内特和阿维格多·利伯曼反对任何依赖阿拉伯政党的政府。（自投票结束以来，他们尚未就此问题发表声明。）

一位接近内塔尼亚胡的消息人士称，他当选后的主要目标是使犹太人和阿拉伯人之间的政治合作失去合法性，从而阻止这种合作，以免他被赶下台。

消息人士称：“他非常担心出现少数派政府。”内塔尼亚胡甚至计划向个别反对派议员施压，阻止他们与阿拉伯政党合作。利库德集团在整个选举期间一直反对阿拉伯政党，并在周三发表声明，指责他们通过贿赂、威胁、暴力和伪造等手段“窃取选举”，这与他最亲密的盟友、美国总统唐纳德·特朗普对选举舞弊的指控如出一辙。中央选举委员会周三表示正在调查这一投诉，但该委员会在选举日当天已经驳回了各政党提出的数千起投诉。

克里斯·麦克格拉斯/盖蒂图片社

消息人士告诉 CNN，内塔尼亚胡计划“不惜一切手段消除这种可能性”，“包括对伊朗发动攻击，或者寻求特朗普总统代表他干预以色列政治”。

反对派担心内塔尼亚胡可能利用安全危机来拖延或阻止新政府的组建。大选前，内塔尼亚胡曾敦促特朗普对伊朗发动联合打击，但华盛顿方面并未采取行动，部分原因是以色列国防军总参谋长埃亚尔·扎米尔警告称，此举可能会扰乱选举。一位以色列安全部门消息人士告诉CNN，作战计划已经准备就绪，只待特朗普批准，可能要等到美国中期选举之后。

一位反对派消息人士告诉CNN：“我们无法预知内塔尼亚胡会采取什么行动。我们知道他可能会试图推动局势进一步升级。”另一位消息人士称，内塔尼亚胡“会不惜一切代价保住总理职位，哪怕是在国内和国际上制造混乱也在所不惜。”

以色列国防军前总参谋长艾森科特周二晚间呼吁以色列安全部门负责人记住，“内塔尼亚胡只是个看守总理，既没有民意授权，也没有公众信任。”在出口民调公布后不久，艾森科特向支持者发表讲话，宣称公众“选择了变革”。

艾森科特在周二晚发表讲话后首次对更新后的选举结果作出回应，称他仍然致力于“为以色列带来变革”。

最终结果仍有可能变化。预计中央选举委员会将于周三晚间完成大部分选票的计票工作。目前，计票工作将重点放在军人、囚犯、医院病人及工作人员、驻外外交官和残疾选民等群体寄出的双层信封选票上。委员会估计，双层信封选票的数量在43万至48万张之间，足以统计超过10个席位的选票。这些选票将通过专门的核查程序单独计票，最终结果预计将于周四公布。

然后，政治角力才真正开始。

下一步将由总统伊萨克·赫尔佐格负责，他在选举后的角色至关重要。他的任务是与所有当选政党协商他们推荐的总理候选人，然后从中选出他认为最有可能获得61个席位多数支持的候选人。这个人不一定是最大党的领导人，而是最有可能组建联合政府的领导人。

由于阿拉伯政党预计会支持艾森科特，因此他可能会比内塔尼亚胡获得更多推荐。

然后，时间开始倒计时。

被选中的候选人有28天的时间（并可申请14天的延期）与其他政党就内阁职位、预算和政策进行谈判，以组建政府。如果他组建失败，则授权给另一位候选人，为期四周。如果这位候选人也失败，议会将有一个短暂的机会提出替代候选人。如果替代候选人也失败，国家将自动举行大选。

作为看守总理，内塔尼亚胡拥有天然优势。如果艾森科特先获得授权——但最终失败——他只需等待任期结束即可。而如果以色列最终需要举行新的选举，内塔尼亚胡将继续担任看守总理数月之久。

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艾森科特并非完全没有办法。

即使无法组建政府，反对派仍可利用其在议会的多数席位，更换议长和其他关键职位。这可能会限制内塔尼亚胡的执政能力，甚至使反对派能够推进立法。

但退役中将艾森科特如今身处他最理想的战场。内塔尼亚胡的执政联盟依然无比忠诚，他根本无需担心有人倒戈。艾森科特的情况则截然不同。他领导的联盟成员构成多元化，意识形态远不如内塔尼亚胡的执政联盟一致，哪怕最微小的举动都可能导致联盟分裂，使国家再次面临选举。

目前，焦点集中在赫尔佐格身上，鉴于当前的僵局，他的作用更加重要。由于两个阵营均未获得绝对多数席位，他可能会尝试推动内塔尼亚胡和艾森科特组建联合政府。

赫尔佐格周三表示：“我们必须尽一切努力避免再次举行选举。”他呼吁各党派领导人以“开放的心态”参与磋商。