Democrats in striking distance: New CNN polls in four states highlight party’s path to Senate majority

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CNN polling across four key Senate races in the final days of the midterm campaign finds Democrats well-positioned in Michigan and Texas , with no clear leader in the races in Maine or Kansas .

The four states tell the story of a midterm playing field that has shifted in unexpected ways, leaving Democrats hopeful that they’ll be able to take control of the Senate after next Tuesday’s elections. That prospect largely seemed out of reach earlier this year, and it remains far from a done deal. But with President Donald Trump’s ratings underwater even in states he won easily in 2024, territory that was once staunchly Republican now appears to be up for grabs.

In Michigan, the epitome of a battleground state, Democrat Abdul El-Sayed (49%) has opened up a lead over Republican Mike Rogers (42%) among likely voters amid signs that the state’s Democratic base has unified behind him, and that discouraged Republicans are checking out.

Texas, which hasn’t elected a Democrat in a statewide race in three decades, gives Democrat James Talarico (49%) a narrow lead over Republican Ken Paxton (43%) among likely voters. Talarico’s bid benefits from deeply negative impressions of Paxton, as well as sizable support among the Black, Latino and Asian voters in the state who voted for Trump in 2024.

Early on, Maine was widely viewed as one of Democrats’ best pickup opportunities this cycle, with Sen. Susan Collins the only Republican up for reelection in a state that voted Democratic in 2024. But the race has remained a tight contest: The new poll of likely voters finds no clear leader between Collins (45%) and her Democratic challenger Troy Jackson (49%), even as the race has become squarely a referendum on Collins.

And in deep-red Kansas, there is no clear leader between Democrat Adam Hamilton (49%) and Republican Sen. Roger Marshall (45%), even as likely voters there say they would prefer Republicans to control the Senate. Voters here largely view Marshall unfavorably and say their choices are about Marshall more so than Hamilton.

Taken together, these four states paint a picture of a Democratic Party well-positioned to make a play for Senate control. They exemplify the extraordinary range of the playing field in a political environment that borders on historic negativity toward the party in power, and of the ways in which individual candidates can overcome – or succumb to – the forces of political habit.

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For Democrats to take control of the Senate, they will need a net gain of four seats; three of these four seats are currently held by Republicans. Beyond the core math, they’ll need the prevailing political winds and the dynamics of these individual races to align.

There is still room for those dynamics to shift. In all but Maine, at least 1 in 8 likely voters say they could still change their mind about whom to support. In Texas and Kansas, at least 6 in 10 of those uncommitted likely voters are Republicans or Republican-leaning independents, suggesting there is room for political gravity to work in the GOP’s favor as voters settle on their decisions. More than 9 in 10 Maine likely voters, though, say they are locked into their choice. In all four states, enough voters are movable to close the gap between candidates.

El-Sayed has opened up a lead over Rogers in what was a no-clear-leader race in CNN’s polling around Labor Day . That lead rests on worsening views of Rogers, as well as consolidated support among Democrats following the state’s contentious August primary.

All told, El-Sayed now holds the support of 95% of Democratic likely voters, up a touch from 90% in the last poll.

Likely voters in the state are largely making their choices based on their views of El-Sayed. Three-quarters of his supporters see their vote as one of support for him, and 57% of Rogers supporters say their vote is against El-Sayed – a reversal in how Rogers’ voters view their choice compared with earlier in the campaign.

That shift comes as views of Rogers have notably worsened: 50% now have an unfavorable view of the former Congressman, up from 42% in early September. El-Sayed’s favorable ratings remain roughly evenly split between positive and negative views.

Texas’ tilt toward a Democrat in its Senate contest demonstrates how individual candidates can short - circuit political currents. Trump carried Texas in 2024 by the largest margin in any of his three runs for the presidency, winning over sizable shares of the state’s voters of color, including a majority of Latino and Asian voters. And there are signs that Talarico, to a greater extent than some other Democratic candidates, is overperforming the political environment.

Talarico has the support of 63% of Latino likely voters in the state and 64% among likely voters of color generally. That includes carrying 22% of likely voters of color who say they backed Trump in 2024.

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Talarico’s favorability rating is far more positive than Paxton’s, and most Talarico supporters say their decision is more of a sign of support for the Democrat than an anti-Paxton vote. The poll finds Paxton struggling to generate positive support even among his own partisans: 24% hold an unfavorable view of Paxton, compared with just 2% of Democrats holding a negative view of Talarico.

Still, nobody would confuse Texas for being Democratic-friendly territory. While Trump’s approval rating in the state has tipped into the negative, the GOP remains more popular than the Democratic Party, and there’s no clear leader in the state’s race for governor.

In Kansas, the most Republican-friendly of the four states polled, only about one-third hold a positive view of the Democratic Party.

But Hamilton, like Talarico, is overperforming his party – even as he’s a lesser-known quantity. In this case, the more relevant number may be Marshall’s underperformance and unpopularity. Most likely voters say that they view the Republican nominee negatively, and a 59% majority of Hamilton’s backers say they’re motivated primarily by opposition to Marshall.

Hamilton has the support of roughly 12% of Republican and Republican-leaning voters, a significantly broader crossover than for any other Democratic candidate tested. And those voters without an opinion of Hamilton – about one-fifth of the electorate – still support him over Marshall.

There is no clear leader in the Maine Senate race, and the fundamentals of the race remain roughly the same as in CNN’s last poll there just ahead of Labor Day. Collins’ continued competitive position speaks to her ability to defray criticism that she is too close to an unpopular president.

Compared to GOP nominees in the other three states, Collins is less broadly seen as willing to place the interests of Trump and the Republican Party ahead of the people in her state. In fact, Maine likely voters are about as apt to see Jackson as beholden to the Democratic Party as they are to say Collins is to the GOP. Collins also picks up more support among Trump disapprovers (21%) than any of the other GOP candidates tested in these polls (Rogers at 16%, Marshall at 12%, Paxton at 10%).

Collins needs to win over some voters dissatisfied with her party, because views of the GOP are more negative in Maine than in any of the other states polled.

The race is clearly turning on views of Collins herself. About three-quarters of likely voters behind each candidate say their choices are motivated by Collins more than Jackson. Her favorability rating remains broadly net-negative (54% have an unfavorable view), but Jackson’s is also narrowly negative (46% unfavorable to 39% favorable). And many more report seeing advertising in support of Collins (42%) than of Jackson (27%).

In the final stretch, the poll finds that while Jackson’s backers remain more motivated to vote (79% are extremely motivated compared with 62% among Collins’ supporters), deep motivation among Collins’ voters has grown by 9 points since early September while motivation among Jackson’s voters has held steady.

Many voters across these four states are keenly aware that their choice carries national implications. For some, that’s a driving factor – even beyond the character of the candidates and the issues at play in the specific races. A 55% majority of the voters supporting the Democrat Jackson in Maine say that party control is their top concern, while in Texas and Kansas, it’s more of a factor for those backing Republican candidates than Democrats, including being the top consideration for half of those supporting Marshall in Kansas.

But in these states that are likely to be central to determining who holds power in the Senate next year, a majority of voters point to other factors as their top consideration.

CNN’s Isabelle LaBianco contributed to this report.

The CNN polls of likely voters were conducted online and by telephone from Oct. 20-27, 2026 in Michigan and Texas and Oct. 20-26, 2026 in Kansas and Maine. Registered voters were randomly sampled from both registered voter lists and a probability-based panel. Results among likely voters include all registered voters in the poll weighted for their predicted likelihood of voting in this year’s election. Results among the 838 likely voters in Kansas have a margin of sampling error of plus or minus 4.5 percentage points; among the 783 likely voters in Maine, the margin of sampling error is 4.5 percentage points; among the 768 likely voters in Michigan it is 4.7 percentage points, and among the 923 likely voters in Texas it is 4.2 percentage points.

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CNN 在中期选举最后几天对四场关键的参议院竞选进行的民意调查显示，民主党在密歇根州和德克萨斯州处于有利地位，但在缅因州和堪萨斯州的竞选中没有明显的领先者。

这四个州的选情表明，中期选举的格局发生了意想不到的变化，民主党人希望在下周二的选举后能够掌控参议院。今年早些时候，这一前景似乎遥不可及，而现在也远未尘埃落定。但即便在特朗普总统2024年轻松获胜的州，他的支持率也已跌至负值，曾经的共和党铁票仓如今似乎也成了民主党争夺的目标。

在典型的摇摆州密歇根州，民主党候选人阿卜杜勒·埃尔-赛义德（49%）在可能投票的选民中领先于共和党候选人迈克·罗杰斯（42%），有迹象表明该州的民主党基本盘已经团结在他周围，而沮丧的共和党人正在放弃投票。

德克萨斯州在过去三十年中从未在全州选举中选出过民主党候选人，但在可能的选民中，民主党候选人詹姆斯·塔拉里科（49%）以微弱优势领先于共和党候选人肯·帕克斯顿（43%）。塔拉里科的胜选得益于帕克斯顿极差的公众印象，以及该州黑人、拉丁裔和亚裔选民的大力支持——这些选民在2024年总统大选中都投票给了特朗普。

早期，缅因州被普遍视为民主党本轮选举周期中最具希望的州之一，因为苏珊·柯林斯参议员是该州唯一一位面临连任的共和党参议员，而该州在2024年大选中投票支持民主党。但选情依然胶着：最新民调显示，柯林斯（45%）和她的民主党挑战者特洛伊·杰克逊（49%）之间没有明显的领先者，尽管这场选举实际上已经演变成对柯林斯的一次公投。

在深红州堪萨斯，民主党候选人亚当·汉密尔顿（49%）和共和党参议员罗杰·马歇尔（45%）的支持率不相上下，尽管当地选民表示他们更希望共和党控制参议院。堪萨斯州的选民普遍对马歇尔持负面看法，并表示他们的选择更多地是出于对马歇尔而非汉密尔顿的考虑。

综合来看，这四个州的情况表明，民主党已做好充分准备，力争掌控参议院。它们也体现了在当前政治环境下，各方竞争格局的非凡差异——这种政治环境对执政党的负面情绪几乎达到了历史最高水平——以及候选人如何克服（或屈服于）政治惯性的力量。

中期选举不到两周，最有可能易手的10个参议院席位

民主党要想掌控参议院，需要净增四个席位；这四个席位中有三个目前由共和党人占据。除了基本的席位计算之外，他们还需要当前的政治风向以及各选区的具体选情都朝着同一个方向发展。

这些动态仍有变化空间。除缅因州外，其他各州至少有八分之一的潜在选民表示，他们仍有可能改变主意，决定支持哪位候选人。在德克萨斯州和堪萨斯州，至少十分之六的未决潜在选民是共和党人或倾向于共和党的独立人士，这表明随着选民最终做出决定，政治风向仍有可能向共和党倾斜。然而，超过十分之九的缅因州潜在选民表示，他们已确定自己的选择。在这四个州，都有足够多的选民可能改变立场，从而缩小候选人之间的差距。

在CNN劳动节前后进行的民调中，埃尔-赛义德与罗杰斯的选情一度胶着，但如今两人已分出胜负。埃尔-赛义德的领先优势主要源于罗杰斯支持率的下降，以及在8月份该州竞争激烈的初选后，民主党内部支持率的巩固。

总的来说，埃尔-赛义德目前获得了95%的民主党潜在选民的支持，比上次民调中的90%略有上升。

该州的潜在选民很大程度上是根据他们对埃尔-赛义德的看法来做出选择的。四分之三的埃尔-赛义德支持者认为他们的投票是对他的支持，而57%的罗杰斯支持者表示他们投票反对埃尔-赛义德——这与竞选初期罗杰斯支持者对投票的看法截然相反。

这一转变正值公众对罗杰斯的看法明显恶化之际：目前已有50%的人对这位前国会议员持负面看法，高于9月初的42%。埃尔-赛义德的支持率则仍然大致持平，正面和负面评价各占一半。

德克萨斯州参议员选举中民主党候选人的胜选趋势表明，个别候选人可以左右政治走向。特朗普在2024年总统大选中以三次竞选总统以来最大的优势赢得了德克萨斯州，赢得了该州相当一部分有色人种选民的支持，其中包括大多数拉丁裔和亚裔选民。种种迹象表明，塔拉里科的表现，比其他一些民主党候选人更能体现出其超常的政治实力。

塔拉里科在该州获得了63%的拉丁裔选民支持，以及64%的有色人种选民支持。这其中包括22%表示曾在2024年支持特朗普的有色人种选民的支持。

乔·雷德尔/盖蒂图片社

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塔拉里科的支持率远高于帕克斯顿，而且大多数塔拉里科的支持者表示，他们的决定更多地是出于对这位民主党人的支持，而非反对帕克斯顿。民调显示，帕克斯顿甚至难以在自己的支持者中获得正面支持：24%的民主党人对帕克斯顿持负面看法，而只有2%的民主党人对塔拉里科持负面看法。

然而，没人会把德克萨斯州误认为是民主党的地盘。虽然特朗普在该州的支持率已经转为负值，但共和党仍然比民主党更受欢迎，而且该州州长竞选中也没有明显的领先者。

在接受民意调查的四个州中，堪萨斯州是共和党最友好的州，只有大约三分之一的人对民主党持积极看法。

但汉密尔顿和塔拉里科一样，表现超出了各自党派的预期——尽管他的知名度相对较低。在这种情况下，更相关的数据或许是马歇尔表现不佳和支持率低迷。大多数可能投票的选民表示他们对这位共和党候选人持负面看法，而汉密尔顿的支持者中，有59%的人表示他们投票的主要动机是反对马歇尔。

汉密尔顿获得了约12%的共和党及倾向共和党的选民的支持，这一支持率远高于其他任何一位接受测试的民主党候选人。而那些对汉密尔顿没有明确意见的选民——约占选民总数的五分之一——仍然支持他而不是马歇尔。

缅因州参议员竞选目前尚无明显领先者，选情基本面与CNN在劳动节前夕进行的民调结果大致相同。科林斯持续保持竞争力，表明她有能力消除外界对她与一位不受欢迎的总统关系过于密切的批评。

与其他三个州的共和党候选人相比，科林斯被认为更不愿意将特朗普和共和党的利益置于本州人民的利益之上。事实上，缅因州的潜在选民认为杰克逊效忠民主党的可能性，与认为科林斯效忠共和党的可能性几乎相同。此外，科林斯在反对特朗普的选民中获得的支持率（21%）也高于其他任何一位参与民调的共和党候选人（罗杰斯为16%，马歇尔为12%，帕克斯顿为10%）。

科林斯需要赢得一些对她所在政党不满的选民的支持，因为在缅因州，人们对共和党的看法比在其他任何接受民意调查的州都要负面。

这场竞选显然取决于选民对柯林斯本人的看法。在支持两位候选人的选民中，约有四分之三的人表示，他们选择柯林斯而非杰克逊是出于对柯林斯的喜爱。柯林斯的支持率总体上仍然偏低（54%的人持负面看法），而杰克逊的支持率也略低于柯林斯（46%的人持负面看法，39%的人持正面看法）。此外，看到支持柯林斯的广告的选民比例（42%）远高于看到支持杰克逊的广告的选民比例（27%）。

在最后阶段，民调显示，虽然杰克逊的支持者仍然更有投票动力（79% 的人投票动力非常强，而柯林斯的支持者中只有 62% 的人投票动力强），但自 9 月初以来，柯林斯选民的深度投票动力增长了 9 个百分点，而杰克逊选民的投票动力则保持稳定。

这四个州的许多选民都清楚地意识到，他们的选择具有全国性的影响。对一些人来说，这甚至比候选人的个人品格和具体选举议题更为重要。在缅因州，支持民主党候选人杰克逊的选民中，有55%的人表示，党派控制是他们最关心的问题；而在德克萨斯州和堪萨斯州，对于支持共和党候选人的选民来说，党派控制比支持民主党候选人的选民更为重要，例如在堪萨斯州，支持马歇尔的选民中有一半人将党派控制作为首要考虑因素。

但在这些可能对明年参议院权力归属起到关键作用的州，大多数选民表示，其他因素才是他们最主要的考虑因素。

CNN的伊莎贝尔·拉比安科对本报道亦有贡献。

CNN于2026年10月20日至27日在密歇根州和德克萨斯州，以及2026年10月20日至26日在堪萨斯州和缅因州，通过网络和电话对可能投票的选民进行了民意调查。已登记选民的样本来自已登记选民名单和一个基于概率的样本组，并采用随机抽样的方式选取。可能投票选民的调查结果包含了所有参与调查的已登记选民，并根据他们预计参加今年选举的投票可能性进行了加权。堪萨斯州838名可能投票选民的调查结果的抽样误差为正负4.5个百分点；缅因州783名可能投票选民的调查结果的抽样误差为4.5个百分点；密歇根州768名可能投票选民的调查结果的抽样误差为4.7个百分点；德克萨斯州923名可能投票选民的调查结果的抽样误差为4.2个百分点。