Is Fox News pivoting to its post-Trump era? The answer lies in what it is — and isn’t — showing

Patrick T. Fallon/AFP/Getty Images

President Donald Trump is “dominating the airwaves and controlling the conversation,” Fox News host Jesse Watters declared on October 21, touting the president’s midterm campaign blitz.

Trump was speaking in South Carolina at that same moment. Fox didn’t carry any of it live.

As Republicans fight to retain control of Congress, the party’s most powerful television ally has been making its own choices about what the closing message should be — cheering Trump’s campaigning while frequently avoiding his speeches.

The Murdochs are thinking about a post-Trump era and looking ahead to the 2028 presidential election — believing the network will be center stage as both the Republicans and Democrats choose nominees.

But right now, Fox’s ratings are down, and its defenses are up. The country’s dominant conservative network is a reflection of Republican malaise amid a midterm season that has given the party little to cheer about. Several of its hosts sound not just determined, but downright desperate to juice GOP turnout.

Some Trump fans have literally tuned it all out. Normally cable news ratings surge during an election season, but Fox’s total audience fell about 27% in October compared with the same month a year ago.

The Hollywood Reporter called it the steepest decline suffered by any cable news network in the run-up to an election in the past decade. The Bulwark’s culture editor Sonny Bunch said in response, “This is probably more revealing of GOP enthusiasm than every poll released thus far.”

Fox still commands a huge audience, however, including many voters who identify as independents and liberals. That’s partly why Democrats like Michigan Senate candidate Abdul El-Sayed have popped up on Fox’s air in recent weeks, courting voters who are disappointed by Trump and willing to consider a Democrat.

Trump, in turn, has railed against Fox when he has seen Democrats on the network that he considers his own. Right now Fox’s profitable but difficult alliance with Trump is being tested like never before.

The change in Fox’s appetite for Trump’s speeches is striking. From January through September, Trump delivered 14 campaign-style rally speeches, and Fox News took 12 of them live, a CNN analysis finds.

In fact, the network was so eager to show the president speaking that when Trump briefly handed the microphone to a few members of Congress during a July 27 rally in Michigan, host Brian Kilmeade assured viewers that Fox’s cutaway would be brief.

“We’ll bring you back there live when he starts speaking again,” he said, “and we won’t have you miss any of the action.”

During Trump’s fall midterm blitz, however, Fox viewers have missed a lot of Trump action, so to speak. The network aired live portions of just nine of his 24 speeches, according to CNN’s tally through Wednesday night.

In early October, Fox routinely ignored Trump’s live events and showed only short clips of the speeches afterward. This approach continued until late in the month, when Fox began to dip into the president’s speeches with some regularity.

The bulk of the rally airtime has been during the network’s weekend programming, which is lower-rated than weekday commentary shows like “The Five” and “Jesse Watters Primetime.” Fox has appeared loath to interrupt its most popular shows for Trump, particularly when he is just repeating his stump speech. (Fox has live-streamed every rally online.)

Even Newsmax, Fox’s far-less-popular rival for MAGA viewership, has dialed back on airing Trump’s rallies compared with earlier this year, often airing just a few minutes before directing viewers to its paid app for the rest, CNN analysis found.

“I hate to do this. I hate interrupting the president,” Newsmax host Greg Kelly said while cutting away from Trump’s October 1 rally after about three minutes. He promised to watch the rest later — “You always learn things” — but explained: “We have some other content that we have to get through.”

The slow backing away from Trump’s rallies comes as he registers some of the weakest approval ratings of his presidency and seeks to preserve Republican congressional majorities that are threatened in part by his own unpopularity. (Earlier this month, Fox’s own polling unit put Trump’s job approval at 36%, a record low in the network’s polling.)

Trump’s long, meandering speeches ostensibly promote GOP candidates, but can veer into extended airings of personal grievances, sales pitches for expensive White House renovations and all-too-frequent observations about the male physique .

Meanwhile, Fox’s hosts can offer a more focused Republican pitch, and that’s exactly what they do. Hour after hour, hosts and guests decry the Democratic Party and denounce socialism. In recent days, they have stoked fear about riots in France spreading stateside and summoned outrage over Barack Obama’s supposed snobbery toward the Cheesecake Factory.

Watters remarked earlier this month that “fear porn” is necessary to motivate voters: “You have to say ‘These people will take your health care. They’re going to let in the third world. They’re going to jack up your taxes.’ And that’s what’s going to get people to come out to vote. You have to say, ‘These people are scary and dangerous. You know what we’re all about.’ And that’s really a choice.”

On Wednesday night, though, Watters let Trump do most of the talking. The president’s Ohio speech ran uninterrupted for almost the entire hour.

From a business standpoint, Fox News is the envy of the cable television universe. The network commands a large and loyal audience and ranks as the top-rated channel across all of cable in prime time, easily outrating CNN and MS NOW.

But Fox’s ratings have sagged sharply this fall. Some might see it as a bit of political foreshadowing. If next week is an electoral earthquake, Fox’s ratings are a foreshock, signaling what may be coming.

October was Fox’s lowest-rated month since December 2023. The year-over-year audience decline suggests that “conservatives are tuning out ahead of the high-stakes elections,” as Oliver Darcy wrote for Status earlier this week.

Nielsen’s recent methodology changes may also explain the decline, though CNN and MS NOW posted year-over-year gains in October, likely driven by election-season interest.

Fox is used to seeing viewer mood swings show up in the ratings. In 2020, when Trump allies attacked Fox for accurately reporting that he had lost to Joe Biden, Fox’s ratings dropped precipitously. The ratings pressure was on the minds of some Fox hosts and producers who subsequently platformed Trump’s election lies, leading to multiple defamation lawsuits.

That 2020 ratings decline was an election aftershock. The Fox base slowly but surely tuned back in over time. But at the moment, Trump fatigue is taking a real toll on Fox’s ratings, and thus its bottom line.

Some Democrats running in red and purple states have seen Fox as a useful platform to campaign.

David Jolly, the Democratic candidate for governor in Florida, gave an interview to Fox’s Bill Hemmer and Dana Perino earlier this week, recognizing the network’s large audience across the state. Jolly shared the interview on social media afterward and thanked the hosts for the invitation.

El-Sayed and Kentucky Senate Democratic candidate Charles Booker have also appeared on the network recently.

But for every Democrat who has said yes to a Fox interview, many have said no, reflecting the party’s split over whether to treat the network as an opponent or an opportunity.

Trump and some of his aides have bristled at El-Sayed’s visibility on Fox. The president railed against host Martha MacCallum’s “softball” interview with El-Sayed earlier this month.

Then he attacked Fox for giving airtime to the independent candidate challenging Nebraska’s Republican Senate incumbent. “Fox News is long form interviewing the sleazebag, Dan Osborn, right now, who is running against our GREAT Republican Senator, Pete Ricketts, from Nebraska,” the president wrote. “Why are they doing this???”

The network rarely talks about its coverage choices and avoids responding to the president’s missives. But Fox News president Jay Wallace, during an unrelated interview with Axios, alluded to Trump’s anger about El-Sayed and said, “Someone didn’t necessarily like that. But that’s what we do.”

Jessica Koscielniak/Reuters

Fox News is tuning out Trump’s rallies. Here’s what that means

Wallace’s rebuttal is obvious: Fox’s news programs are supposed to cover all the news, not just GOP views, even though the network is largely defined by pro-Trump opinion shows that repeat the GOP party line.

Even those opinion shows can contain surprising moments. A new El-Sayed campaign ad features Watters and other Fox figures making flattering remarks about the Democratic candidate and skeptical remarks about Mike Rogers, the Trump-backed Republican in the race.

Meanwhile, Trump remains dependent on Fox to reach the voter base he shares with the network. The relationship is likely to remain awkward. Trump has signaled that he might scapegoat Fox for Republican losses next week.

“Fox News is spending far too much time putting on the OPPONENTS of Republican party candidates,” he complained over the weekend.

Trump claimed that Fox’s lack of “help” is “the only reason this race is close, if it is indeed close.”

Patrick T. Fallon/法新社/盖蒂图片社

10月21日，福克斯新闻主持人杰西·沃特斯宣称，唐纳德·特朗普总统“主导了媒体，控制了舆论”，并大力宣传总统的中期竞选攻势。

就在同一时刻，特朗普正在南卡罗来纳州发表讲话。福克斯新闻没有进行现场直播。

在共和党人努力保住国会控制权之际，该党最强大的电视盟友一直在自行决定最后的竞选信息应该是什么——一方面为特朗普的竞选活动欢呼，另一方面却经常回避他的演讲。

默多克家族正在考虑后特朗普时代，并展望 2028 年总统大选——他们相信，随着共和党和民主党选择候选人，该电视台将成为中心舞台。

但眼下，福克斯的收视率下滑，防御姿态也随之加强。这家美国保守派主导的电视网反映了共和党在中期选举季的低迷状态，因为本届选举几乎没有给共和党带来任何值得庆祝的成果。福克斯的几位主持人听起来不仅决心要提高共和党的投票率，而且似乎不顾一切。

一些特朗普的支持者完全无视了新闻报道。通常情况下，有线电视新闻的收视率在选举季会飙升，但福克斯新闻10月份的总收视人数与去年同期相比下降了约27%。

《好莱坞报道》称这是过去十年来有线新闻网络在选举前夕遭遇的最大跌幅。《堡垒》杂志文化编辑桑尼·邦奇回应道：“这或许比迄今为止公布的所有民调都更能反映共和党人的热情。”

然而，福克斯新闻仍然拥有庞大的观众群，其中包括许多自认为是独立选民和自由派人士的选民。这在一定程度上解释了为什么像密歇根州参议员候选人阿卜杜勒·埃尔-赛义德这样的民主党人最近几周频频出现在福克斯新闻的节目中，试图争取那些对特朗普感到失望并愿意考虑民主党候选人的选民的支持。

反过来，特朗普也猛烈抨击福克斯新闻，因为他看到民主党人在这家他视为自己阵营的电视台露面。目前，福克斯新闻与特朗普之间有利可图却又充满挑战的联盟正面临前所未有的考验。

福克斯新闻对特朗普演讲的兴趣发生了显著变化。CNN的一项分析发现，从1月到9月，特朗普发表了14场竞选式集会演讲，其中12场被福克斯新闻现场直播。

事实上，该电视台非常渴望播出总统讲话的画面，以至于在 7 月 27 日密歇根州的一次集会上，当特朗普短暂地将麦克风交给几位国会议员时，主持人布莱恩·基尔米德向观众保证，福克斯的画面切换将会很短暂。

“等他再次开始讲话时，我们会把直播画面连线到现场，”他说，“我们不会让您错过任何精彩瞬间。”

然而，在特朗普秋季中期选举的密集竞选活动中，福克斯新闻的观众却错过了特朗普的许多重要活动。据CNN截至周三晚间的统计，该电视台仅直播了他24场演讲中的9场。

10月初，福克斯新闻通常对特朗普的现场活动不予转播，只在事后播放一些演讲片段。这种做法一直持续到月底，之后福克斯新闻才开始较为频繁地播出总统的演讲。

大部分集会播出时间都安排在福克斯电视台的周末节目时段，而周末节目的收视率低于工作日的评论节目，例如《The Five》和《Jesse Watters Primetime》。福克斯似乎不愿为了特朗普而中断其最受欢迎的节目，尤其是在他只是重复竞选演讲的时候。（福克斯对每一场集会都进行了网络直播。）

CNN 分析发现，即使是福克斯新闻在争取 MAGA 观众方面远不如其受欢迎的竞争对手 Newsmax，也减少了对特朗普集会的播出，与今年早些时候相比，通常只播出几分钟，然后引导观众使用其付费应用程序观看剩余内容。

“我很不想这样做。我很不想打断总统，”Newsmax主持人格雷格·凯利在特朗普10月1日的集会直播大约三分钟后切断了直播信号。他承诺稍后会继续观看——“你总能从中学习到一些东西”——但他解释说：“我们还有其他内容要播报。”

特朗普逐渐减少竞选集会之际，正值他的支持率跌至其总统任期内最低点，他正努力保住共和党在国会的多数席位，而这一多数席位正因他自身支持率的下降而受到威胁。（本月初，福克斯新闻的民调显示，特朗普的支持率仅为36%，创下该电视台民调历史新低。）

特朗普冗长而漫无边际的演讲表面上是为了宣传共和党候选人，但有时会演变成长时间地发泄个人不满、推销昂贵的白宫翻新工程，以及对男性体格的频繁评论。

与此同时，福克斯新闻的主持人可以更有针对性地宣传共和党的理念，而他们也正是这么做的。他们和嘉宾们一连几个小时都在抨击民主党，谴责社会主义。最近几天，他们煽动民众恐慌，声称法国的骚乱会蔓延到美国，还大肆宣扬奥巴马对芝士蛋糕工厂（Cheesecake Factory）的所谓“势利眼”。

沃特斯本月早些时候曾表示，“恐吓宣传”对于激励选民至关重要：“你必须说，‘这些人会剥夺你的医疗保健。他们会允许第三世界国家入境。他们会大幅提高你的税收。’这才能让人们出来投票。你必须说，‘这些人很可怕，很危险。你们知道我们是什么样的人。’这其实是一种选择。”

不过，周三晚上，沃特斯让特朗普滔滔不绝地讲了大部分内容。总统在俄亥俄州的演讲几乎持续了一个小时，期间没有受到任何干扰。

从商业角度来看，福克斯新闻频道令有线电视界艳羡不已。该频道拥有庞大且忠实的观众群，在黄金时段收视率高居所有有线电视频道之首，轻松超越CNN和MS NOW。

但福克斯电视台的收视率在今年秋季大幅下滑。有些人认为这或许预示着某种政治风向。如果下周的选举真的会带来一场“地震”，那么福克斯的收视率下滑就是一次前兆，预示着未来可能发生的情况。

10 月份是福克斯电视台自 2023 年 12 月以来收视率最低的月份。正如 Oliver Darcy 本周早些时候在 Status 网站上撰文指出，同比收视率下降表明“保守派人士在即将到来的重要选举前夕正在减少收视”。

尼尔森最近的方法论变化也可能解释了收视率的下降，尽管 CNN 和 MS NOW 在 10 月份的收视率同比增长，这很可能是由于选举季的关注所致。

福克斯新闻早已习惯收视率受观众情绪波动的影响。2020年，特朗普的支持者攻击福克斯新闻准确报道他败给乔·拜登后，福克斯的收视率急剧下降。收视率的压力让一些福克斯的主持人和制片人感到焦虑，他们随后开始传播特朗普关于选举的谎言，导致多起诽谤诉讼。

2020年收视率的下滑是选举后的余震。福克斯的忠实观众群逐渐恢复了收视率。但目前，特朗普的疲软情绪正在对福克斯的收视率及其盈利造成切实的影响。

一些在共和党占优势和摇摆州参选的民主党候选人将福克斯新闻视为一个有用的竞选平台。

佛罗里达州民主党州长候选人戴维·乔利本周早些时候接受了福克斯新闻主持人比尔·赫默和达娜·佩里诺的采访，他表示感谢福克斯新闻在全州拥有庞大的观众群。采访结束后，乔利在社交媒体上分享了这段视频，并感谢两位主持人的邀请。

埃尔-赛义德和肯塔基州参议院民主党候选人查尔斯·布克最近也曾出现在该电视台的节目中。

但对于每一个同意接受福克斯新闻采访的民主党人来说，都有许多人拒绝了，这反映出该党对于应该将福克斯新闻视为对手还是机遇存在分歧。

特朗普及其一些助手对埃尔-赛义德在福克斯新闻频道的曝光率感到不满。本月初，总统曾猛烈抨击主持人玛莎·麦卡勒姆对埃尔-赛义德的“温和”采访。

随后，他抨击福克斯新闻给挑战内布拉斯加州共和党参议员的独立候选人提供播出时间。“福克斯新闻现在正在对那个卑鄙小人丹·奥斯本进行长时间采访，他正在挑战我们伟大的共和党参议员皮特·里基茨（来自内布拉斯加州）。”总统写道，“他们为什么要这么做？？？”

该电视台很少谈及报道选择，也避免回应总统的言论。但福克斯新闻总裁杰伊·华莱士在接受Axios采访时（与此无关），暗示了特朗普对埃尔-赛义德的愤怒，并表示：“有人可能不喜欢这样。但这就是我们所做的。”

杰西卡·科斯切尔尼亚克/路透社

福克斯新闻正在屏蔽特朗普的竞选集会。这意味着什么？

华莱士的反驳显而易见：福克斯新闻节目应该报道所有新闻，而不仅仅是共和党的观点，尽管该电视台很大程度上是由支持特朗普的评论节目来定义的，这些节目重复着共和党的党派路线。

就连那些评论节目也会出现令人惊讶的时刻。埃尔-赛义德竞选团队的一则新广告中，沃特斯和其他福克斯新闻的嘉宾对这位民主党候选人大加赞赏，而对特朗普支持的共和党候选人迈克·罗杰斯则持怀疑态度。

与此同时，特朗普仍然依赖福克斯新闻来接触他与该电视台共同的选民基础。双方关系可能仍将十分尴尬。特朗普已暗示，他可能会将下周共和党的失利归咎于福克斯新闻。

“福克斯新闻花了太多时间报道共和党候选人的反对者，”他周末抱怨道。

特朗普声称，福克斯新闻缺乏“帮助”是“这场选举之所以势均力敌的唯一原因，如果这场选举真的势均力敌的话”。