Israel’s election ended in deadlock. Here are four ways out

Israel faces weeks, possibly months, of political limbo after final results show there’s no clear winner in its elections .

Neither of the two main blocs – one led by Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s right-wing Likud party, the other led by the centrist Yashar party of his main rival, Gadi Eisenkot – have reached the required 61-seat majority to form a government in Israel’s 120-seat parliament.

So how could a new government be formed?

Certainly, it does not look easy, with deep-rooted political and ideological divisions making any seemingly straightforward coalition almost impossible.

Still, it can be done, even if the result is a tenuous alliance that survives little more than a year or so in office. If party leaders are unable to figure it out in the 12 weeks they will have available, then Israelis will be back at the polls.

Here’s some potential scenarios that could avoid that.

On paper, the opposition’s surest path to unseat Netanyahu is built on Jewish-Arab cooperation. And that is its biggest obstacle.

Two of the opposition bloc’s right-wing party leaders, former Prime Minister Naftali Bennett and former Defense Minister Avigdor Liberman, oppose any government that depends on the two Arab parties in parliament – the Joint List and Raam – whether it’s from inside the coalition, or as outside supporters of a minority government. The two leaders have hardened their positions since the Hamas-led attack of October 7, 2023.

Only one government in Israel’s history has enjoyed the full participation of an Arab party. Raam was part of an eight-party coalition that succeeded in ousting Netanyahu in 2021, but it collapsed just after a year in office.

Even without forming a government, the opposition parties could still work together and leverage their parliamentary majority to replace the Knesset speaker, along with other key positions, and thereby constrain Netanyahu’s caretaker government as it continued in power. But the prospects of assembling a coalition to replace him as Israel’s leader remain highly complicated and politically charged.

Another option would see the implosion of the two blocs in favor of a unity government. Netanyahu’s Likud party would certainly be involved, along with some of his existing coalition partners, as well as – crucially – at least one party from the opposition bloc.

Netanyahu, in this case, is believed to be willing to part ways with his far-right National Security Minister Ben-Gvir – but not from far-right Finance Minister Bezazel Smotrich and the ultra-Orthodox parties.

Eisenkot , however, has ruled out sitting with Netanyahu, and it would be seen by many Israelis desperate to see the back of ‘Bibi’ as an act of betrayal if he were to change his mind.

Another scenario could see Netanyahu encouraging defections from opposition parties or individual lawmakers.

But all four opposition bloc party leaders – Eisenkot, Bennett, Liberman and Yair Golan – have declared they will not sit with him. And with Netanyahu’s bloc a full eight seats short, persuading eight individual defectors sets a high bar.

While all these possibilities are being discussed in the background, Israeli President Isaac Herzog will hold a very public round of consultations with the leaders of the parties that have made it into parliament.

Once he has solicited their opinions, he will task one of those leaders with the job of trying to form a government. Arab parties are expected to voice their support for Eisenkot, so the Yashar leader could be asked to go first.

Whoever gets the nod will have 28 days to complete the job, with a possible 14-day extension if needed.

If it all comes to nothing, the president will ask a second leader to have a go. They get 28 days only to sort it out.

After that, a majority of Knesset members could ask the president to task a third candidate, who then has 14 days to build a coalition.

If none of these produce a breakthrough, there will be another election.

The person who appears best-placed to navigate this timetable is Netanyahu. As caretaker prime minister, he can afford to wait: If main rival Eisenkot gets the first shot – and fails – the mandate is likely to pass to him. And if he fails as well, the political deadlock seems certain to lead Israel to another round of elections – with Netanyahu remaining caretaker for months, until another government is formed.

A repeat election – which would happen no earlier than next spring – is a real possibility, as these results look set to return Israel to a state of political paralysis and what would be the seventh general election in eight years.

以色列大选最终结果显示没有明确的获胜者，该国可能面临数周甚至数月的政治僵局。

以色列两大政治集团——一个是由总理本杰明·内塔尼亚胡领导的右翼利库德集团领导，另一个是由他的主要竞争对手加迪·艾森科特领导的中间派亚沙尔党领导——均未在以色列120个席位的议会中获得组建政府所需的61个席位多数。

那么，如何才能组建新政府呢？

当然，这看起来并不容易，根深蒂固的政治和意识形态分歧使得任何看似简单的联盟都几乎不可能实现。

即便如此，这也不是不可能，即便最终形成的联盟脆弱不堪，执政时间可能只有一年左右。如果各党派领导人无法在12周的期限内找到解决方案，那么以色列人将再次举行大选。

以下是一些可以避免这种情况的潜在方案。

从理论上讲，反对派推翻内塔尼亚胡的最可靠途径是建立在犹太人和阿拉伯人合作的基础上。而这恰恰是他们面临的最大障碍。

反对派联盟的两名右翼政党领导人，前总理纳夫塔利·贝内特和前国防部长阿维格多·利伯曼，反对任何依赖议会中两个阿拉伯政党——联合名单党和拉姆党——的政府，无论这两个政党是作为联合政府内部成员，还是作为少数派政府的外部支持者。自2023年10月7日哈马斯发动袭击以来，这两位领导人的立场更加强硬。

以色列历史上只有一届政府曾有阿拉伯政党全面参与。拉姆党是2021年成功推翻内塔尼亚胡的八党联盟成员之一，但该联盟执政仅一年便宣告瓦解。

即使无法组建政府，反对党仍可联合起来，利用其在议会的多数席位，更换议长以及其他关键职位，从而限制内塔尼亚胡的看守政府继续执政。但组建联盟以取代内塔尼亚胡成为以色列领导人的前景仍然极其复杂，且充满政治风险。

另一种选择是两大阵营瓦解，组建联合政府。内塔尼亚胡的利库德集团肯定会参与其中，他的一些现有执政联盟伙伴也会参与，而且——至关重要的是——至少还有一个来自反对派阵营的政党也会参与。

在这种情况下，人们认为内塔尼亚胡愿意与极右翼国家安全部长本-格维尔分道扬镳，但不会与极右翼财政部长贝扎泽尔·斯莫特里奇和极端正统派政党分道扬镳。

然而，艾森科特已经排除了与内塔尼亚胡会面的可能性，如果他改变主意，许多急于让“比比”（内塔尼亚胡的昵称）下台的以色列人会将其视为一种背叛行为。

另一种可能是内塔尼亚胡鼓励反对党成员或个别议员倒戈。

但反对党联盟的四位领导人——艾森科特、贝内特、利伯曼和亚伊尔·戈兰——都已宣布不会与他同台。而内塔尼亚胡的联盟还差八个席位，要说服八位成员倒戈，难度可想而知。

在所有这些可能性都在幕后讨论之际，以色列总统伊萨克·赫尔佐格将与进入议会的各党派领导人举行一轮公开磋商。

在征求各方意见后，他将委派其中一位领导人负责组建政府。预计阿拉伯各党派将公开支持艾森科特，因此亚沙尔党领导人可能会被优先考虑。

无论谁获得批准，都将有 28 天的时间完成这项工作，如果需要，可以延长 14 天。

如果一切努力都徒劳无功，总统将邀请第二位领导人尝试执政。他们只有28天的时间来解决问题。

之后，以色列议会多数议员可以要求总统任命第三位候选人，该候选人有 14 天的时间来组建联合政府。

如果这些措施都未能取得突破，将会再次举行选举。

最能掌控这一时间表的人似乎是内塔尼亚胡。作为看守总理，他有时间等待：如果主要竞争对手艾森科特率先参选——但失败了——那么执政授权很可能会落到他手中。而如果艾森科特也失败了，政治僵局几乎肯定会导致以色列再次举行大选——内塔尼亚胡将继续担任看守总理数月，直到新政府组建完成。

重新举行大选——最早也要到明年春天——是很有可能的，因为这些选举结果似乎注定会让以色列再次陷入政治瘫痪，这将是八年来的第七次大选。