Trump’s blockade pushes Iran toward military escalation

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As Washington abandons talks with Iran for an aggressive economic pressure campaign, a cornered Tehran is now threatening military escalation and a wider war to force negotiators back to the table.

US President Donald Trump has dismissed diplomacy with the Islamic Republic, calling a June ceasefire agreement one that “isn’t worth the paper it’s written on.” His administration has instead piled pressure on Iran through a global sanctions campaign, military strikes and a maritime blockade that stops goods from leaving or entering the country.

The multifront campaign has put Iran under unprecedented pressure, forcing its fatigued population to endure still more strain. Iranian Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei , meanwhile, remains conspicuously absent. Tuesday will mark his sixth month in hiding in an attempt to avoid the fate of his father and predecessor, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, who was killed in an airstrike at the start of the US-Israeli war against Iran in late February.

Iran’s military officials are increasingly touting new tactics in response to the pressure, threatening to target nations taking part in the blockade and warning that they could broaden the conflict.

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“We concluded that new strategies must be adopted in the war, in negotiations, and in confronting the blockade,” Iran’s Supreme National Security Council leader, Mohsen Rezaei, said in an interview with Iranian media on Sunday. He also suggested that Iran could expand its own blockade beyond the strait by introducing a new “exclusion zone” in the Persian Gulf and Gulf of Oman.

Over the past few weeks, Iran and Oman have been slowly negotiating management of the Strait of Hormuz . On Monday, Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesman Esmaeil Baghaei said a “temporary safe route” through the strait would likely be registered with the International Maritime Organization in the “coming days.” It remains unclear if the US would recognize the agreement being negotiated between Iran and Oman.

For now, mediators have identified two main obstacles to resolving the conflict, Qatari Foreign Ministry spokesperson Majed al-Ansari told CNN’s Becky Anderson: political will and technical solutions.

“Political will is based on narrative, meaning that we find the right narrative for the parties of the conflict to get out of this crisis. And it’s juggling four or five balls at the same time in trying to find all the solutions needed,” he said.

Despite the diplomatic stall, Iran’s top officials, including President Masoud Pezeshkian, have repeatedly signaled their desire to return to the June agreement — one widely viewed by observers as favorable to Tehran. Domestically, however, hard-line conservatives remain critical of any agreement with the US, accusing the Iranian president and his negotiators of compromising Iran’s wartime gains.

“Tehran is trying to reconcile two pressures: a war-weary population that needs economic relief and an ideological base that does not want capitulation,” Hamidreza Azizi, senior Iran analyst at the International Crisis Group (ICG) think tank, told CNN. “That is why the preferred outcome is diplomacy, but diplomacy that can be presented domestically as the result of Iranian strength rather than retreat.”

Cornered, Iran now faces a quagmire. Without compromise on its demands over control of the Strait of Hormuz, its nuclear program or sanctions relief, pressure from Washington is unlikely to ease, while any compromise with Washington would leave Iran’s top officials answering to ideologically driven hard-line factions within the regime.

“The Iranian nation accepts neither threats nor coercion, nor negotiations whose outcome would be the weakening of the country’s rights,” Hossein Taeb, head of the hard-line Basij paramilitary volunteer group, said Monday. “Negotiations are for securing the nation’s rights, not surrendering them.”

Despite Iranian and Qatari officials talking up efforts to reestablish diplomacy, Trump maintains that his tactics do not seek to “force” Iran back to the negotiating table, instead, signaling Washington’s comfort with the status quo.

“I like our position now much better, with almost total control of the Hormuz Strait, and their economy totally collapsing,” Trump wrote on Truth Social last week. “They are just playing out the inevitable,” he added, before calling on Iranian people to “rise up and fight” the regime.

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The memorandum of understanding set a roadmap for further negotiations over Iran’s nuclear program and sanctions relief, while preparing for a future in which Tehran would have a role in managing the Strait of Hormuz, which is crucial for the transport of a fifth of the world’s oil supply.

In the weeks that followed the signing of the agreement, Iran attempted to control traffic across the Strait of Hormuz, while the US launched a heavy barrage of strikes on Iranian targets along the coastline.

The US Navy also began escorting vessels carrying crude out of the Strait of Hormuz, slowly ramping up the transit of oil to relieve pressure on markets, while regional countries such as the United Arab Emirates and Saudi Arabia have shifted away from Hormuz to export oil to their clients.

“Our energy exports will not be held hostage, nor will our trade and economic activity,” UAE presidential adviser Anwar Gargash said at the Hili Forum in Abu Dhabi on Monday.

“We are actively expanding port capacity along our eastern coast. Together with the pipelines, railways and trade links needed to connect alternative corridors for cargo are being developed and strengthened,” he added.

Washington has also not let up military pressure, ordering strikes on Iranian targets, including last week, when an attack killed 18 people. Among them were four people at a wedding celebration , including a child, after shrapnel from a US strike hit a house in a village along the Strait of Hormuz, according to Iranian officials.

In response, Iran has targeted regional countries and vessels transiting the strait, while its proxies in Yemen have attacked Saudi oil facilities. But the ferocity of the strikes do not compare to the early days of the war when Iran launched hundreds of rockets and drones on regional targets, including Israel, heavily disrupting livelihoods and inflicting damage on stable countries.

“The logic is that Tehran cannot simply wait while the US gradually erodes its military and economic leverage,” Azizi, of the ICG, said. “This does not necessarily mean Iran wants another large-scale war. More likely (it) would be calibrated escalation in the sense of greater pressure on shipping, expanding the attacks on US bases or targeting its naval assets, or potentially some targets related to regional energy infrastructure.”

Amid the growing pressure, Iran’s lawmakers are sending deterring messages, warning the region of new weaponry and tactics, including attacks on warships and bases, while its military commanders claim that the Iranian army has now updated equipment and systems “in line with new threats.”

The objective would be to make the “current situation sufficiently costly” for the US that diplomacy again “becomes preferable,” Azizi said.

Such a strategy carries risks, however.

“Once both sides begin testing each other’s red lines, the risk of miscalculation increases significantly. An Iranian attack causing substantial US casualties, or a US response crossing one of Tehran’s red lines, could quickly take the confrontation beyond calibrated escalation and back toward full-scale war,” Azizi said.

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华盛顿放弃与伊朗的谈判，转而采取咄咄逼人的经济施压行动，被逼到墙角的德黑兰现在威胁要升级军事行动，发动更大规模的战争，以迫使谈判代表重返谈判桌。

美国总统唐纳德·特朗普对与伊朗的外交努力不屑一顾，称6月份达成的停火协议“一文不值”。他的政府反而通过全球制裁、军事打击和海上封锁，加大对伊朗的施压力度，阻止货物进出伊朗。

这场多线作战给伊朗带来了前所未有的压力，迫使疲惫不堪的民众承受更大的痛苦。与此同时，伊朗最高领袖穆杰塔巴·哈梅内伊仍然不见踪影。周二将是他隐居的第六个月，他试图避免重蹈其父、前任最高领袖阿亚图拉·阿里·哈梅内伊的覆辙。阿里·哈梅内伊于2月底美以对伊战争爆发之初在一次空袭中丧生。

面对压力，伊朗军方官员越来越多地吹嘘新的战术，威胁要打击参与封锁的国家，并警告说他们可能会扩大冲突。

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伊朗最高国家安全委员会主席穆赫辛·雷扎伊周日接受伊朗媒体采访时表示：“我们认为，在战争、谈判和应对封锁方面，都必须采取新的战略。”他还暗示，伊朗可以通过在波斯湾和阿曼湾设立新的“禁区”，将封锁范围扩大到霍尔木兹海峡以外。

过去几周，伊朗和阿曼一直在就霍尔木兹海峡的管理问题进行缓慢谈判。周一，伊朗外交部发言人伊斯梅尔·巴盖伊表示，一条通过该海峡的“临时安全航道”很可能在“未来几天”内向国际海事组织登记。目前尚不清楚美国是否会承认伊朗和阿曼正在谈判达成的这项协议。

卡塔尔外交部发言人马吉德·安萨里告诉 CNN 的贝基·安德森，目前调解人已经确定了解决冲突的两大障碍：政治意愿和技术解决方案。

他说：“政治意愿取决于叙事，这意味着我们要找到合适的叙事方式，让冲突各方能够摆脱这场危机。这就像同时处理四五个问题，试图找到所有需要的解决方案。”

尽管外交僵局持续，伊朗高级官员，包括总统马苏德·佩泽什基安，已多次表示希望重返6月份达成的协议——该协议被观察人士普遍认为对德黑兰有利。然而，在国内，强硬保守派仍然对任何与美国达成的协议持批评态度，指责伊朗总统及其谈判代表损害了伊朗在战争中取得的成果。

国际危机组织（ICG）高级伊朗问题分析师哈米德雷扎·阿齐兹告诉CNN：“德黑兰正试图调和两种压力：一是饱受战争蹂躏、需要经济援助的民众；二是不愿屈服的意识形态基础。因此，伊朗更倾向于通过外交途径解决问题，但这种外交方式必须在国内被视为伊朗实力增强的体现，而非退缩的表现。”

伊朗如今陷入困境。如果不对其在霍尔木兹海峡控制权、核计划或解除制裁等问题上的诉求做出妥协，来自华盛顿的压力不太可能缓解；而任何与华盛顿的妥协都将使伊朗高层官员不得不听命于政权内部受意识形态驱动的强硬派势力。

“伊朗人民既不接受威胁和胁迫，也不接受任何会削弱国家权利的谈判，”强硬派民兵组织巴斯基民兵领导人侯赛因·塔伊布周一表示。“谈判是为了维护国家权利，而不是为了放弃国家权利。”

尽管伊朗和卡塔尔官员大谈重建外交的努力，但特朗普坚称他的策略并非旨在“迫使”伊朗重返谈判桌，而是表明华盛顿对现状感到满意。

“我现在对我们所处的局面满意多了，我们几乎完全控制了霍尔木兹海峡，而他们的经济正在彻底崩溃，”特朗普上周在Truth Social网站上写道。“他们只是在上演不可避免的结局，”他补充道，随后呼吁伊朗人民“奋起反抗”伊朗政权。

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该谅解备忘录为进一步就伊朗核计划和解除制裁进行谈判制定了路线图，同时为德黑兰未来在管理霍尔木兹海峡方面发挥作用做好准备，霍尔木兹海峡对于运输世界五分之一的石油供应至关重要。

在协议签署后的几周内，伊朗试图控制霍尔木兹海峡的交通，而美国则对伊朗沿海目标发动了猛烈的打击。

美国海军也开始护送运载原油的船只离开霍尔木兹海峡，逐步增加石油运输量以缓解市场压力，而阿拉伯联合酋长国和沙特阿拉伯等地区国家则已不再通过霍尔木兹海峡向其客户出口石油。

阿联酋总统顾问安瓦尔·加尔加什周一在阿布扎比举行的希利论坛上表示：“我们的能源出口不会被挟持，我们的贸易和经济活动也不会。”

“我们正在积极扩建东海岸的港口吞吐能力。同时，我们也在开发和加强连接其他货物运输通道所需的管道、铁路和贸易线路，”他补充道。

华盛顿方面也未放松对伊朗的军事压力，下令对伊朗目标发动袭击，包括上周的一次袭击，造成18人死亡。据伊朗官员称，死者中有四人正在参加婚礼，其中包括一名儿童，袭击产生的弹片击中了霍尔木兹海峡沿岸一个村庄的房屋。

作为回应，伊朗袭击了周边国家和途经霍尔木兹海峡的船只，其在也门的代理人也袭击了沙特阿拉伯的石油设施。但这些袭击的猛烈程度与战争初期相比已大相径庭。当时，伊朗向包括以色列在内的地区目标发射了数百枚火箭弹和无人机，严重扰乱了民众生活，并对一些较为稳定的国家造成了破坏。

国际危机组织（ICG）的阿齐兹表示：“德黑兰的逻辑在于，它不能坐视美国逐步削弱其军事和经济影响力。但这并不一定意味着伊朗想要再次发动大规模战争。更有可能的是，伊朗会采取有控制的升级措施，例如加大对航运的压力，扩大对美国基地或海军资产的袭击，或者可能攻击与地区能源基础设施相关的目标。”

在日益增长的压力下，伊朗议员发出威慑信号，警告该地区将出现新的武器和战术，包括袭击军舰和基地。与此同时，伊朗军方指挥官声称，伊朗军队已经“根据新的威胁”更新了装备和系统。

阿齐兹表示，其目标是让美国“付出足够的代价”，使外交手段再次“成为更可取的选择”。

然而，这种策略也存在风险。

阿齐兹表示：“一旦双方开始试探对方的红线，误判的风险就会显著增加。伊朗的袭击造成美军重大伤亡，或者美国的回应越过德黑兰的红线，都可能迅速使对抗超出可控升级的范畴，重新走向全面战争。”