Why isn’t China’s AI and tech boom saving its stock markets?

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The global artificial intelligence boom that has helped sustain Chinese economic momentum this year still can’t offset its domestic woes, particularly in its stock market.

Since peaking in June, key Chinese indexes have fallen more than 20%, crossing the threshold for a bear market. Beijing responded last week by pumping $19 billion into exchange-traded funds, according to Bloomberg data, its biggest intervention since early 2025, when US President Donald Trump’s tariff offensive roiled global markets.

But analysts say interventions like this may do little to arrest the persistent slide, amid weak consumer spending and concerns over a possible bursting of the AI bubble. On Thursday, China’s benchmark CSI 300 index of stocks listed in Shanghai and Shenzhen closed down 1%.

Even national tech champions that have helped fuel a record trade surplus this year could not escape the crash. Shanghai’s STAR50 index, composed of China’s homegrown AI and chip leaders, has plunged more than 40% since a June peak.

Meanwhile, shares in the world’s largest humanoid robot maker by sales Unitree, which surged 600% in its Shanghai debut in August, have halved, and the valuation of memory chipmaker CXMT, which became Shanghai’s top weighted stock three months after listing, has fallen by nearly 30% since its August peak.

“The selloff reflects a repricing of crowded AI trades, weak domestic demand, and the lack of stimulus,” said Gary Ng, senior economist for Asia Pacific at Natixis Corporate and Investment Bank.

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The meltdown of stocks also extended to Hong Kong, where the benchmark Hang Seng index has plummeted more than 12% this year. Together with Indonesia and India, stocks in China have emerged as the worst performers in the region this year.

Ng explained that Hong Kong faces pressure through its exposure to Chinese companies and selling by mainland investors. Beijing’s increasing scrutiny of cross-border investments and tightening of offshore tax rules also contributed to the plunge, he said.

“Any measure to address the stock market sentiment tends to be short-lived if there are no policies to address underlying key issues,” said Lorraine Tan, director of equity research in Asia at Morningstar, a financial services firm.

“There are imbalances in China’s economy, including excess capacity in many sectors, that need to be addressed. The lack of fiscal spending this year has also been a drag,” she said, adding that measures are needed to boost domestic consumption.

China’s stock rout offers a cautionary tale as investors and analysts warn that an abrupt collapse of the debt-fueled AI boom could send tech stocks, which have soared this year, tumbling worldwide.

For now, China’s equity sell-off is unlikely to trigger significant spillovers into global markets, experts said. Strict controls on capital flows limit foreign investors’ participation in Chinese markets, reducing the possibility that turmoil could spread internationally.

Still, within China, the selloff is hitting some retail investors at one of the worst possible times.

While demand for AI chips and hardware worldwide has accelerated Chinese exports this year and lifted the country to expectation-beating third-quarter growth , stagnant domestic consumption and a prolonged housing market downturn continue to drag.

About 70% of Chinese household wealth is tied up in property. But since the sector began unravelling five years ago, household savings have remained trapped in falling assets, driving some capital into the domestic stock market. However, with Beijing tightening restrictions on offshore trading to curb capital flight in recent months, mainland retail investors face increasingly limited options.

“Chinese equities have generally underperformed most markets this year, and this could contribute to a negative wealth effect that further softens household confidence,” said Lynn Song, chief economist for Greater China at Dutch bank ING.

At a financial forum in Beijing last week, Wu Qing, chairman of the country’s market regulator, vowed to prioritize stability and “do everything possible to maintain the safety and stability of the capital market.”

“We will also encourage eligible listed companies to step up share buybacks and increase their holdings of their own shares, delivering better returns to investors,” he added.

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今年，全球人工智能的蓬勃发展虽然帮助中国经济保持了增长势头，但仍无法抵消其国内的困境，尤其是在股市方面。

自6月份触顶以来，中国主要股指已下跌超过20%，跌破熊市门槛。彭博社数据显示，上周北京方面向交易所交易基金（ETF）注资190亿美元，这是自2025年初美国总统特朗普发起关税攻势扰乱全球市场以来，中国最大规模的干预措施。

但分析人士表示，在消费支出疲软以及对人工智能泡沫可能破裂的担忧加剧的情况下，此类干预措施可能难以阻止股市持续下滑的趋势。周四，沪深300指数收跌1%。

即使是今年助力中国创纪录贸易顺差的国家级科技龙头企业也未能幸免于难。由中国本土人工智能和芯片领军企业组成的上海科创板50指数，自6月份的峰值以来已下跌超过40%。

与此同时，全球销售额最大的人形机器人制造商优尼特（Unitree）的股价在8月份上海上市首日飙升600%后，已经下跌了一半；而存储芯片制造商CXMT的估值在上市三个月后成为上海权重最高的股票，但自8月份达到峰值以来，其估值已经下跌了近30%。

“此次抛售反映了人工智能交易拥挤、国内需求疲软以及缺乏刺激措施等因素导致的重新定价，”法国外贸银行亚太区高级经济学家吴嘉瑞表示。

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股市暴跌的浪潮也蔓延至香港，恒生指数今年已下跌超过12%。中国股市与印尼和印度股市一起，成为今年亚太地区表现最差的股市之一。

吴先生解释说，香港面临的压力主要来自其对中国企业的投资以及内地投资者的抛售。他还表示，北京方面日益严格的跨境投资审查和离岸税收规则的收紧也加剧了股价暴跌。

“如果没有政策来解决根本的关键问题，任何旨在提振股市情绪的措施往往都是短暂的，”金融服务公司晨星亚洲股票研究主管洛林·谭表示。

她表示：“中国经济存在一些不平衡现象，包括许多行业产能过剩，这些问题需要解决。今年财政支出不足也是一个拖累因素。”她补充说，需要采取措施提振国内消费。

中国股市暴跌敲响了警钟，投资者和分析师警告称，由债务驱动的人工智能繁荣一旦突然崩溃，可能会导致今年以来一路飙升的科技股在全球范围内暴跌。

专家表示，目前来看，中国股市的抛售不太可能引发全球市场的重大溢出效应。严格的资本流动管制限制了外国投资者参与中国市场，降低了市场动荡蔓延至国际的可能性。

然而，在中国国内，此次抛售正值一些散户投资者遭遇最糟糕的时机之一。

虽然全球对人工智能芯片和硬件的需求加速了今年中国出口，并推动中国第三季度经济实现超出预期的增长，但国内消费停滞和房地产市场长期低迷仍在拖累经济增长。

中国家庭财富约70%都集中在房地产领域。但自五年前房地产市场开始走下坡路以来，家庭储蓄一直被困在不断贬值的资产中，导致部分资金流入国内股市。然而，近几个月来，北京方面收紧了离岸交易限制以遏制资本外流，内地散户投资者的选择也日益受限。

“今年以来，中国股市整体表现逊于大多数市场，这可能会导致负面的财富效应，进一步削弱家庭信心，”荷兰银行ING大中华区首席经济学家林松表示。

上周在北京举行的一次金融论坛上，中国市场监管机构主席吴青誓言要优先考虑稳定，并“尽一切可能维护资本市场的安全稳定”。

他还补充道：“我们还将鼓励符合条件的上市公司加大股票回购力度，增加自身持股比例，从而为投资者带来更好的回报。”