Trump is setting the stage to contest the midterms. Here’s how

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With only days to the election, time is running out for some of the more extreme pre-election doomsday scenarios that have percolated as a result of President Donald Trump’s chronic and unfounded rhetoric about widespread fraudulent voting.

He has not declared a national emergency to nationalize elections, something he refused to rule out.

His efforts to weaponize the US Postal Service against mail-in voting failed, at least this time. Millions of Americans have already voted early and by mail .

As the voters who want to vote on Election Day prepare to cast their ballots, the focus is turning to the casting of ballots and beyond.

Multiple recent news stories might have caused concern for voters.

Dolly Parton’s sister Stella, for instance, raised alarm in a social media post that a voting machine had changed her vote. Experts told CNN voters need to be paying attention to their ballots, but it’s usually a stray touch or a long fingernail — user error, in other words — that can cause this type of mixup. Occasionally a mistake can result from a machine being improperly calibrated.

A series of bomb threats , likely called in from outside the country, disrupted some voting in Georgia and other states in 2024. Such shenanigans are going to be high on the list of things election officials are prepping for this year — anything from bad weather to network outages to swarms of bees .

Election workers game out all sorts of things and state election officials generally speak with one voice when they say that votes will be cast and counted accurately.

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While most Americans still have faith in the system, the president does not.

There has been a lot of conjecture and worrying — some of it justified and some of it fanciful — about how exactly the Trump administration might go about contesting results of the 2026 midterm election.

Asked this week if he would respect the results, Trump included a caveat.

“I will if they are honest elections, yeah.”

Since Trump has alleged fraud even in elections he has won, the operating assumption should be that he will not think they are honest, especially if Republicans lose control of the House, the Senate or both.

He has even offered $1 million rewards to anyone whose tip leads to a conviction for election fraud, something the Republican election lawyer Ben Ginsberg said he views comically.

“If there was evidence of fraud, uh, they would have found it already,” Ginsberg told CNN’s Brianna Keilar this week. “So I take it more as sort of performance art right before the election.”

The Department of Justice has launched a last-minute effort to call congressional elections in California and Washington state into question based on dubious theories of fraudulent voting.

In California, the administration claimed there were 20,000 people who could be noncitizens on the rolls, while in Washington state, the administration alleged this week that 400 possible noncitizen voters had voted 1,500 times in past elections. The Justice Department sent letters to both states demanding they set aside the ballots of those the department claimed could be noncitizens — and sued California when the state said that the request ran afoul of its laws… The allegations have sparked questions about how the administration created its lists of voters who could be noncitizens — and criticism that its claims of tens of thousands of noncitizens voters have whittled down under scrutiny.

And, separately, the administration has ramped up its investigation of Rep. Ilhan Omar, the Somalia-born lawmaker from Minnesota, raising questions about whether Republicans could challenge her ability to be seated again in the next Congress.

Trump also directed the Department of Justice to get involved in Alaska’s Senate race, where he wants to weaponize Democrats’ efforts to game the state’s ranked-choice voting system.

The president got an apparent boost when the New York Times published a report that seemed to implicate Democrats in an effort to recruit a second candidate named Dan Sullivan to confuse voters. Never mind that the incumbent, Sen. Dan Sullivan, will be identified on the ballot as the incumbent and the Republican.

Ginsberg summarized the ensuing scandal for Democrats as “remarkably politically clumsy and embarrassing for (Democrat Mary Peltola’s) campaign. But Ginsberg added “there’s not an illegality here.”

That hasn’t stopped the DOJ from launching a criminal probe into how the second Dan Sullivan got onto the ballot, and Alaska’s Republican governor has said he might not certify results .

All of these cases are legal long shots, according to experts across the political aisle. And Trump’s election challenges have a poor record in court.

But all his efforts to allege fraud have some political currency.

“They’re just throwing all this stuff out there in an attempt to discourage people from believing in the system and trying to discourage people from coming out and registering to vote and then actually voting themselves,” Eric Holder, who was attorney general under President Barack Obama, told CNN’s Pamela Brown last week.

Unlike in previous elections, Trump now has a Department of Justice helmed by his former personal lawyer, Todd Blanche.

While Blanche has said the DOJ has no plans to contest election results in any state, he also won’t rule it out, as Fox News noted .

“Of course, I’m not going to say that,” Blanche told reporters in Virginia in October. “But am I planning my days around the election to be somewhere to not certify? Of course not, no, not at all.”

He may have no plans, but the federal government is doing more than in previous years to keep an eye on the election.

CNN’s Gabe Cohen, Jeremy Herb and Dugald McDonnell have an extensive report for CNN subscribers on how players in the Trump administration have alleged, without evidence, widespread cheating and problems with voting machines. It also looks at what they can still do as voters head to polls. Read it here.

The system by which DOJ lawyers are sent to monitor how states monitor polling places and guarantee people have access to ballot boxes is nothing new and has been utilized by both Democrats and Republicans. But the Trump administration is more than doubling — to over 1,000 — the number of election monitors it is sending compared with the most recent midterm election. It’s also going to all 50 US states.

One thousand monitors in a nation of 330 million people is not many, and these monitors should be barred from interrupting voting at any polling place. But they could gather information for potential federal government challenges to any state’s election. The RNC also plans to ramp up its monitoring of polling places. Both parties traditionally send monitors.

Federal law prohibits the deployment of the military or armed federal agents to polling places. FBI Director Kash Patel, however, has refused to rule out sending FBI agents to polling places. “I don’t know that we can’t legally do it,” he said at a recent Senate hearing .

But Patel said FBI agents would be on guard on Election Day. “We’re going to house our agents and intel analysts in our field offices for election security,” Patel said, adding, “We have election crisis coordinators manned at all 56 field offices.”

It’s to be hoped that there is no crisis of any kind at election places. And it’s a good thing for the FBI to be prepared. But the administration has also made a point of making claims of voter fraud when there’s no evidence.

For the record, current House Speaker Mike Johnson , a Trump ally who helped him challenge the 2020 election in Congress, said questions about whether Republicans could block the seating of lawmakers were “silly; of course we’ll have a peaceful transfer.”

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Johnson said he will follow the Constitution and seat lawmakers whose victories are certified in their states.

“I may not like some of those outcomes, but that’s our system, and for anyone to suggest otherwise is absurd,” Johnson told CNN’s Manu Raju . He also predicted Republicans will keep control of the House, which is a minority view among people paying close attention to the election atmosphere.

In the Senate, contested elections have delayed the seating of senators in the past, most recently in 2008, in an extremely close race between Democratic Sen. Al Franken, who was ultimately declared the winner, and Sen. Norm Coleman, the Republican who lost. Ultimately, it is up to senators to seat their colleagues.

In that regard, everyone should hope for clear winners after Election Day.

None of this is to say Trump’s unprecedented efforts to influence the election haven’t already had an effect.

Republicans’ efforts to gerrymander themselves some new seats were more successful than those of the Democrats, but some of that could backfire in states such as Texas and Florida, where Latino voters who supported Trump in 2024 might this year shun the GOP. It’s also not yet clear what will happen in Southern states where some voters are angry about the Supreme Court’s gutting of Civil Rights-era protections for districts meant to give minority voters a voice in Congress.

Redistricting is expected to expand next year, and so are Trump’s efforts to curb voting by mail. In that regard, 2026 could serve as a dress rehearsal for the next presidential election, in 2028, when Trump won’t be on the ballot but his legacy will be on the line.

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距离选举日仅剩几天，由于唐纳德·特朗普总统长期以来毫无根据地散布有关选举舞弊的言论，一些极端的选前末日预言正在酝酿之中，但时间已经不多了。

他没有宣布全国进入紧急状态以实现选举全国化，但他拒绝排除这种可能性。

他企图利用美国邮政系统来对抗邮寄投票的举动失败了，至少这一次是这样。数百万美国人已经提前投票或通过邮寄方式投票。

随着希望在选举日投票的选民准备投票，人们的关注点逐渐转移到投票过程及其他方面。

最近发生的几起新闻事件可能引起了选民的担忧。

例如，多莉·帕顿的妹妹斯特拉在社交媒体上发帖称，投票机篡改了她的选票，引发了人们的担忧。专家告诉CNN，选民需要仔细核对选票，但通常是由于不小心触碰或指甲过长——换句话说，是人为失误——导致的。有时，机器校准不当也会导致错误。

一系列炸弹威胁（很可能来自境外）扰乱了2024年佐治亚州和其他一些州的投票。此类干扰事件将是今年选举官员重点防范事项之一——从恶劣天气到网络中断，再到蜂群，无所不包。

选举工作人员会推演各种方案，而州选举官员在表示选票将准确投出和统计时，通常都会给出一致的说法。

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虽然大多数美国人仍然对体制抱有信心，但总统却不这么认为。

关于特朗普政府究竟会如何对 2026 年中期选举结果提出质疑，人们有很多猜测和担忧——其中一些是有道理的，一些则是异想天开的。

本周当被问及是否会尊重选举结果时，特朗普提出了一个附加条件。

“如果选举公正，我会参加。”

由于特朗普甚至在他赢得的选举中也声称存在舞弊，因此可以合理推断，他不会认为选举结果是诚实的，尤其是在共和党失去对众议院、参议院或两者都失去控制权的情况下。

他甚至悬赏 100 万美元，奖励任何提供线索并最终导致选举舞弊罪名成立的人，共和党选举律师本·金斯伯格对此表示觉得很可笑。

“如果真有舞弊的证据，呃，他们早就发现了，”金斯伯格本周告诉CNN的布里安娜·凯拉尔。“所以我更倾向于认为这是选举前的一场行为艺术。”

美国司法部在最后一刻发起行动，试图以可疑的舞弊投票理论为由，质疑加利福尼亚州和华盛顿州的国会选举结果。

在加利福尼亚州，政府声称选民名册上有2万名可能是非公民的人；而在华盛顿州，政府本周指控有400名可能是非公民的选民在过去的选举中投了1500次票。司法部致函这两个州，要求他们搁置司法部声称可能是非公民的选票——并在加州表示该要求违反其法律后，对加州提起诉讼……这些指控引发了人们对政府如何编制可能为非公民的选民名单的质疑，以及对其声称的数万名非公民选民人数在审查下大幅减少的批评。

此外，政府还加大了对来自明尼苏达州的索马里裔议员伊尔汗·奥马尔的调查力度，这引发了人们对共和党人是否会质疑她能否在下届国会再次就任的疑问。

特朗普还指示司法部介入阿拉斯加州的参议员竞选，他想利用民主党人操纵该州排序复选投票制度的企图来达到目的。

《纽约时报》发表的一篇报道似乎暗示民主党人试图招募一位名叫丹·沙利文的第二候选人来混淆选民，这无疑给总统带来了支持率的提升。然而，现任参议员丹·沙利文的名字仍会在选票上被明确标注为现任议员和共和党人。

金斯伯格将随后发生的这场丑闻总结为“对民主党人来说，这是一次极其笨拙且令人尴尬的政治事件，尤其对（民主党人玛丽·佩尔托拉的）竞选而言。”但金斯伯格补充说，“这里并不违法。”

但这并没有阻止美国司法部对第二个丹·沙利文如何出现在选票上展开刑事调查，而阿拉斯加州的共和党州长也表示他可能不会认证选举结果。

各政治派别的专家都认为，所有这些诉讼在法律上胜算渺茫。而且，特朗普的选举挑战在法庭上的记录也十分糟糕。

但他所有关于欺诈的指控都具有一定的政治意义。

“他们散布这些谣言，是为了阻止人们对这个制度产生信任，阻止人们出来登记投票，然后真正去投票，”巴拉克·奥巴马总统时期的司法部长埃里克·霍尔德上周告诉 CNN 的帕梅拉·布朗。

与以往的选举不同，特朗普现在的司法部由他的前私人律师托德·布兰奇领导。

虽然布兰奇表示司法部没有计划对任何州的选举结果提出质疑，但正如福克斯新闻指出的那样，他也没有排除这种可能性。

“我当然不会这么说，”布兰奇十月份在弗吉尼亚州告诉记者，“但我会为了不去认证选举结果而特意安排时间去某个地方吗？当然不会，绝​​对不会。”

他可能没有计划，但联邦政府正在比往年更加密切地关注此次选举。

CNN的加布·科恩、杰里米·赫布和杜格尔德·麦克唐纳为CNN订阅用户撰写了一份详尽的报道，揭露了特朗普政府内部人士如何在没有任何证据的情况下，声称存在大规模舞弊和投票机故障。报道还探讨了在选民前往投票站之际，他们还能做些什么。点击此处阅读报道。

司法部派遣律师监督各州如何监管投票站并确保民众能够顺利投票的制度并非新鲜事物，民主党和共和党都曾使用过。但与最近一次中期选举相比，特朗普政府此次派遣的选举监督员人数增加了一倍多，超过1000人，而且覆盖了美国所有50个州。

在一个拥有3.3亿人口的国家，1000名监票员的数量并不算多，而且这些监票员应该被禁止在任何投票站干扰投票。但他们可能会收集信息，供联邦政府对任何州的选举结果提出质疑。共和党全国委员会也计划加强对投票站的监督。两党历来都会派遣监票员。

联邦法律禁止向投票站部署军队或武装联邦特工。然而，联邦调查局局长卡什·帕特尔拒绝排除向投票站派遣联邦调查局特工的可能性。他在最近的一次参议院听证会上说：“我不知道我们这样做是否合法。”

但帕特尔表示，联邦调查局特工将在选举日严阵以待。“为了选举安全，我们将把特工和情报分析员安置在各自的外勤办事处，”帕特尔说，并补充道，“我们在所有56个外勤办事处都配备了选举危机协调员。”

希望选举现场不会出现任何危机。联邦调查局做好准备是件好事。但政府也一直在毫无证据的情况下声称存在选民舞弊。

现任众议院议长迈克·约翰逊是特朗普的盟友，他曾帮助特朗普在国会挑战 2020 年的选举结果。约翰逊表示，关于共和党人是否可以阻止议员就职的问题“很愚蠢；我们当然会和平交接”。

乔·兰贝蒂/盖蒂图片社

约翰逊表示，他将遵循宪法，让那些在其所在州获得选举结果认证的议员就职。

约翰逊告诉CNN的马努·拉朱：“我可能不喜欢其中一些结果，但这就是我们的制度，任何持相反观点的人都是荒谬的。”他还预测共和党将继续掌控众议院，但这在密切关注选举形势的人群中属于少数派观点。

在参议院，以往的选举争议曾导致参议员就职延迟，最近一次是在2008年，当时民主党参议员阿尔·弗兰肯（最终胜出）和共和党参议员诺姆·科尔曼（落败）之间的竞争异常激烈。最终，参议员们有权决定其他参议员的就职事宜。

在这方面，每个人都应该希望选举日后能产生明确的获胜者。

但这并不意味着特朗普史无前例地试图影响选举还没有产生影响。

共和党人试图通过选区划分来增加席位，其努力比民主党更为成功，但这种做法在德克萨斯州和佛罗里达州等州可能会适得其反。在这些州，2024年支持特朗普的拉丁裔选民今年或许会放弃共和党。此外，南方各州的局势也尚不明朗，一些选民对最高法院削弱民权时代对少数族裔选区保护的条款感到愤怒，这些选区旨在赋予少数族裔选民在国会的发言权。

预计明年选区重划范围将扩大，特朗普限制邮寄投票的力度也将加大。从这个角度来看，2026年大选可能成为2028年总统大选的一次预演。届时，特朗普虽然不会出现在选票上，但他的政治遗产仍将面临考验。