Storm set to hit central US on Election Day as key midterm races hang in balance

Ryan Murphy/AFP/Getty Images

A storm headed for the central United States on Election Day could affect voter turnout in key races across the region .

The beginnings of our storm are just off the West Coast and will cross into the US Saturday night. It will funnel in abundant moisture from the tropical Pacific, setting up a serious flooding threat in the Southwest this weekend before it brings soggy weather to the central states for Election Day.

Heavy rain is expected to fall over the Four Corners states of Arizona, New Mexico, Utah and Colorado on Sunday into Monday, and could bring serious flash flooding, before the system marches into the central US by Election Day.

Soggy weather is likely for a widespread area on Tuesday, stretching from the Great Plains and Upper Midwest to the Lower Mississippi Valley and western Gulf Coast. Stormy conditions are possible for keys races in Iowa, Kansas, Michigan and Texas.

The threat of flooding rain on Tuesday is currently low, but voters traveling to the polls could encounter ponding on roads.

Thunderstorms are expected on the storm’s southern side, a few of which could intensify and turn severe from eastern Texas into Arkansas, Louisiana, Mississippi and Tennessee.

Blustery conditions are also likely throughout a large portion of the impacted states, especially in the Plains. Kansas could see wind gusts between 30 to 40 mph, up to 50 mph in Nebraska.

Weather conditions could factor in to voter turnout in those states and for others in the central US who aren’t among the more than 49 million people who have already cast ballots through early voting.

Rainfall and other active weather tend to suppress voter turnout while sunshine has the opposite effect, multiple studies have found .

What early voting data is showing ahead of the 2026 midterms

Dry weather will likely sandwich the storm along much of the East Coast and in the West. The only exception is coastal areas of the Southeast and northern California where nuisance showers can’t be completely ruled out yet.

Across the country though, there will be no need to bundle up to go vote. High temperatures in most of the nation’s eastern half are forecast to be 5 to 20 degrees Fahrenheit above average. Only portions of the the Southwest will have temperatures tilting a bit cooler than average.

The breakdown below shows the forecast for some of the key states in the midterms. Keep in mind these forecasts will likely change as confidence grows in the storm’s path over this weekend.

Georgia: Likely dry with highs in the 70s and 80s.

Iowa: Rain is likely, with heaviest totals falling over the eastern portion of the state from Monday evening into Tuesday midday. Highs will reach the 60s, but could lean cooler in the northwest corner.

Kansas: Central and eastern parts of the state are most likely to see rainfall along with elevated winds. Highs will range from the 50s and 60s, with widespread wind gusts between 20 to 30 mph.

Maine: Scattered showers are possible across the interior portions of the state, but the timing is still up in the air. Highs will reach the 50s and 60s.

Michigan: Rain will fall throughout the state for at least part of the day, with prolonged showers likely further north. Highs will range from the 50s and 60s in the Upper Peninsula to the low 70s in Lower Michigan.

New Hampshire: A stray shower or two is possible in northern portions of the state, but more significant rain chances are low right now. Highs will be in the 50s and 60s.

North Carolina: Likely dry with highs in the 70s.

Ohio: Mostly dry with highs in the 60s and 70s.

Texas: Eastern and coastal Texas will likely see rain. A few severe thunderstorms with damaging wind are also possible. High will range from the 80s near the coast to the 60s in the state’s panhandle and west Texas.

CNN Meteorologist Chris Dolce contributed to this story.

Ryan Murphy/AFP/Getty Images

选举日当天，一场风暴将袭击美国中部地区，可能会影响该地区关键选举的投票率。

这场风暴的源头就在西海岸附近，将于周六晚间进入美国。它将从热带太平洋带来大量水汽，在本周末给美国西南部地区造成严重的洪涝灾害威胁，随后在选举日当天给中部各州带来潮湿天气。

预计周日至周一，亚利桑那州、新墨西哥州、犹他州和科罗拉多州这四个州将迎来强降雨，并可能引发严重的突发性洪水，之后这股天气系统将在选举日之前进入美国中部。

周二，大片地区可能出现阴雨天气，影响范围从大平原和中西部北部一直延伸到密西西比河下游流域和墨西哥湾西部沿岸。爱荷华州、堪萨斯州、密歇根州和德克萨斯州的关键选举日可能会受到暴雨天气的影响。

周二出现暴雨洪涝的威胁目前较低，但前往投票站的选民可能会遇到道路积水。

预计风暴南侧将出现雷暴，其中一些雷暴可能会增强，从德克萨斯州东部到阿肯色州、路易斯安那州、密西西比州和田纳西州，雷暴将发展成强雷暴。

受影响的大部分州，尤其是平原地区，都可能出现大风天气。堪萨斯州阵风风速可能达到每小时30至40英里，内布拉斯加州阵风风速可能高达每小时50英里。

天气状况可能会影响这些州以及美国中部其他一些州的投票率，这些州的选民还不是已经通过提前投票投出选票的 4900 多万人中的一部分。

多项研究发现，降雨和其他恶劣天气往往会抑制投票率，而阳光则会产生相反的效果。

2026年中期选举前的提前投票数据显示了什么？

干燥天气可能会使风暴席卷美国东海岸大部分地区和西部。唯一的例外是东南部沿海地区和加利福尼亚州北部，这些地区目前还不能完全排除出现零星阵雨的可能性。

不过，全国各地的人们都不需要穿得严严实实去投票。预计美国东部大部分地区的气温将比平均水平高出华氏5到20度。只有西南部部分地区的气温会略低于平均水平。

以下列出了部分中期选举关键州的预测情况。请注意，随着本周末对风暴路径预测的准确性不断提高，这些预测可能会有所变化。

乔治亚州：可能干燥，最高气温在70到80华氏度之间。

爱荷华州：预计周一晚至周二中午，东部地区将出现强降雨，降雨量最大。最高气温将达到60华氏度左右，但西北部地区气温可能略低。

堪萨斯州：该州中部和东部地区最有可能出现降雨和强风。最高气温将在50至60华氏度之间，普遍存在阵风，风速在20至30英里/小时之间。

缅因州：该州内陆地区可能出现零星阵雨，但具体时间尚不确定。最高气温将达到50至60华氏度。

密歇根州：全州至少今天部分时间将有降雨，北部地区可能出现持续阵雨。最高气温上半岛地区在50至60华氏度之间，下密歇根地区在70华氏度左右。

新罕布什尔州：该州北部地区可能出现零星阵雨，但目前出现较大降雨的可能性较低。最高气温将在50至60华氏度之间。

北卡罗来纳州：天气干燥，最高气温在70华氏度左右。

俄亥俄州：大部分地区干燥，最高气温在60到70华氏度之间。

德克萨斯州：德克萨斯州东部和沿海地区可能会有降雨。部分地区也可能出现强雷暴，并伴有破坏性大风。沿海地区最高气温将达到80多华氏度（约27摄氏度），而该州狭长地带和西部地区最高气温将达到60多华氏度（约16摄氏度）。

CNN气象学家克里斯·多尔切对本文亦有贡献。