Middle East on edge as fears mount the Iran war could restart after the midterms

With little transparency from Washington and warmongering from Tehran, people across the Middle East have been left anxious and confused, scanning for signals on whether the conflict between Iran and the United States will reignite.

“The mood has definitely shifted,” a 36-year-old American national living in Saudi Arabia told CNN. She plans to leave before Tuesday’s midterms, after which US President Donald Trump has hinted renewed fighting is possible.

“People are more cautious in general, and it feels like a waiting game to see what happens,” she added.

At home and workplaces across Gulf Arab countries, questions are swirling. Residents are searching for clues that c ould help them make plans in case of school closures or travel disruption.

The war began in February when the US and Israel launched strikes on Iran that killed Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei. It entered its eighth month this week with both sides still locked in a stubborn stalemate, neither making progress diplomatically nor capable of breaking the military impasse.

Trump has offered little clarity on his endgame, oscillating between threats of further strikes and openness to possible diplomacy. Iran has tried to project its own deterrence, claiming it now possesses weaponry capable of striking more targets and inflicting even greater damage than before. Mediation is continuing – but a breakthrough would depend on at least one of the two sides breaching their own red lines.

Trump wrote on social media earlier this month that Washington “will not be attacking Iran at any time prior to the midterm elections.” That the US president neither ruled out or confirmed strikes would resume afterwards is part of the reason for the ongoing nerves.

“The US has been actively feeding into this regionwide sense of anxiety as it keeps signaling that another round of escalation might be imminent” Hasan Alhasan a senior fellow for Middle East policy at the International Institute for Strategic Studies told CNN. “But it’s becoming difficult to distinguish pressure tactics from genuine signals.”

Adding to a sense that escalation could be imminent, Israel’s Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu - who partnered the US in attacking Iran and has been pushing for new strikes - will remain in office despite losing his majority in the recent elections. Negotiations to form a new government in Israel look set to begin in earnest next week, but election results suggest it will be difficult for opposition parties to oust Netanyahu quickly, if at all.

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In the absence of clarity, residents in the region often rely on hearsay or search social media for reports on troop movements to determine whether a US strike is imminent.

Over the past month, Iranian military commanders have also intensified a series of public messages claiming that Iran has built-up large stockpiles of new weapons, a tactic designed to induce fear among Washington’s allies in the region.

A senior security official in Tehran told CNN that Iran will try to target infrastructure beyond oil facilities in the region, including AI, and warned that if the conflict resumes, it will be a long “war of surprises.” On Saturday, Iran’s supreme leader Mojtaba Khamenei ordered a response “without geographical limitations” to any new threat, an apparent effort to present a leader still yet to be seen in public as playing an active role in military preparations.

Foreign workers drawn to wealthy Gulf Arab states by economic opportunities and a tax-free lifestyle have for decades lived in relative stability in a region mired in conflict. That sense of security was shattered this year after the US and Israel launched the war, prompting Tehran to fire unprecedented barrages of ballistic missiles and drones onto Arab cities disrupting schools, travel and business and causing multiple casualties.

Yet despite the war, many residents stayed put, telling CNN they feel confident under the protection of well-armed regional militaries. Practical concerns remain, though.

“I’m actively trying not to think about that happening again because I really don’t want another winter with strikes,” Michelle, a 36-year-old American resident in Abu Dhabi told CNN. “I’ve always felt safe here…but I’m more concerned that our lives will have to change again.”

This month, people were surprised to find out that families of US diplomats have begun discreetly leaving, with the sudden departures becoming known only after their children started saying goodbye to classmates at school. Many of those leaving had only recently returned to their posts after being ordered out at the height of the Iran war in March, making the exits feel like a frustrating and chaotic déjà vu.

Mahmud Hams/AFP/Getty Images

Fueling anxiety among residents are reports of thousands of US troops being dispatched to the region , as reported by the Associated Press.

In Saudi Arabia, where major events have already been canceled and offices closed with staff working remotely after the Iran-allied Houthi rebels intensified strikes, residents told CNN the were concerned that a return to war could increase pressure on a country already embroiled in conflict along its southern border.

“My neighbors and friends are bunkering for November but starting to get concerned about flights disruptions over the holidays,” said the 36-year-old American national in Saudi Arabia, comparing it to the covid era. “A lot of offices have moved to virtual or have reduced staff and remote learning is in place.”

Elsewhere in the region, other international gatherings remain on track, though the risk remains that they could be disrupted if the US launches strikes in the coming week.

In Abu Dhabi, where no attacks have been recorded since May, two US oil firms canceled plans for their executives to attend one of the region’s biggest oil conferences citing security concerns, Reuters reported. The event will proceed as scheduled next week with “strong” US participation and more than 120 American exhibiting companies, the organizer, DMG, told Reuters.

The conference is expected to host nearly 240,000 people, according to the organizers.

In Bahrain, one of the worst hit countries by Iran this year, people said they still felt the psychological impact of the war.

“There is still that traumatic effect ,” 21-year-old Fawaz told CNN. “When you hear the bombings, it’s kind of like you feel it in your hearts and it’s hard to sleep at night, especially when there are bombings outside.”

“A lot of people have become used to it by now but it’s still very scary,” he added.

Despite growing anxiety over the possible resumption of war, there has been a flurry of quiet diplomacy over the past week.

US Vice President JD Vance sent Iran’s top security official Mohsen Rezaei a letter, which the Islamic Republic is reviewing, according to Iranian media. Trump has claimed that the letter was related to an Iranian request for medical supplies, but it has raised hopes a diplomatic breakthrough could still be possible.

Iranian officials are in Qatar for talks, a Qatari official said. Qatar has played a prominent role mediating, but the official added there was no US delegation present Saturday.

Photo Illustration by Leah Abucayan/Alberto Mier/CNN/Getty Images

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In stark contrast to Trump’s warnings, the US ambassador to Turkey and special envoy to Syria and Iraq Tom Barrack told CNN’s Becky Anderson that he thinks there could be “dramatic steps” in the next two weeks

“We’re close. I think we’re very close to a place where we can finally say: Let’s just have a time out,” he said, adding that it is, however, a “matter of trust and who goes first.”

Iranian officials have sai d they’re open for diplomacy with the US, but they do not have trust that talks will stop military strikes, citing several past occasions when the Islamic Republic was struck during negotiations.

And a central figure also warned that Iran was not ready to compromise.

“Iran’s conditions have been repeatedly and clearly stated to the mediators,” said Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, the Iranian parliamentary speaker who is leading negotiations with the US. “The carrot-and-stick approach has no effect on Iran. Progress can only be achieved once Iran’s seven conditions have been agreed upon.”

由于华盛顿缺乏透明度，而德黑兰则大肆宣扬战争，整个中东地区的人们感到焦虑和困惑，都在寻找伊朗和美国之间的冲突是否会再次爆发的信号。

一位居住在沙特阿拉伯的36岁美国公民告诉CNN：“气氛确实发生了变化。”她计划在周二的中期选举前离开，美国总统唐纳德·特朗普曾暗示，选举后可能会再次爆发冲突。

她补充说：“人们普遍更加谨慎，感觉就像在等待结果。”

在海湾阿拉伯国家，无论是在家中还是在工作场所，人们都在猜测各种问题。居民们正在寻找线索，以便在学校停课或旅行中断的情况下制定应对计划。

这场战争始于今年2月，当时美国和以色列对伊朗发动空袭，导致伊朗最高领袖阿里·哈梅内伊身亡。本周战争已进入第八个月，双方仍陷入僵局，外交上毫无进展，军事上也无力打破僵局。

特朗普对其最终目标始终语焉不详，时而威胁要发动更多打击，时而又表示愿意通过外交途径解决问题。伊朗则试图展现自身的威慑力，声称其目前拥有的武器能够打击更多目标，造成比以往更大的破坏。调解仍在继续，但能否取得突破取决于双方至少有一方愿意突破各自的底线。

特朗普本月早些时候在社交媒体上发文称，华盛顿“在中期选举前不会对伊朗发动攻击”。美国总统既没有排除也没有证实选举后会恢复打击行动，这也是持续紧张局势的部分原因。

“美国一直在积极加剧整个地区的焦虑情绪，不断发出新一轮局势升级可能即将发生的信号，”国际战略研究所中东政策高级研究员哈桑·阿尔哈桑告诉CNN。“但现在越来越难以区分施压策略和真正的信号。”

以色列总理内塔尼亚胡与美国联手打击伊朗，并一直力主发动新的空袭。尽管他在最近的选举中失去了多数席位，但他仍将继续留任。以色列组建新政府的谈判预计将于下周正式启动，但选举结果表明，反对党即使能够迅速罢免内塔尼亚胡，也并非易事。

图片来自彭博社/彭博社/彭博社（经由Getty Images）

由于情况不明朗，该地区的居民往往依靠道听途说或在社交媒体上搜索有关军队调动的报道，来判断美国是否即将发动袭击。

过去一个月，伊朗军方指挥官还加大了公开宣传力度，声称伊朗已经储备了大量新型武器，这一策略旨在恐吓华盛顿在该地区的盟友。

德黑兰一位高级安全官员告诉CNN，伊朗将试图袭击该地区石油设施以外的基础设施，包括人工智能，并警告说，如果冲突重燃，这将是一场旷日持久的“出其不意之战”。周六，伊朗最高领袖穆杰塔巴·哈梅内伊下令对任何新的威胁做出“不受地域限制”的回应，这显然是为了展现这位尚未公开露面的领导人在军事准备中扮演着积极的角色。

数十年来，受经济机遇和免税生活方式吸引，大量外籍劳工涌入富裕的海湾阿拉伯国家，在战乱频仍的地区过着相对稳定的生活。然而，今年美国和以色列发动战争后，这种安全感荡然无存。德黑兰随即向阿拉伯城市发射了前所未有的弹道导弹和无人机，扰乱了学校、交通和商业活动，并造成多人伤亡。

尽管战火纷飞，许多居民仍选择留守，他们告诉CNN，在装备精良的地区军队的保护下，他们感到安心。不过，实际问题依然存在。

“我尽量不去想那种事再次发生，因为我真的不想再经历一个罢工频发的冬天，”36岁的美国居民米歇尔告诉CNN。“我一直觉得这里很安全……但我更担心我们的生活会再次发生改变。”

本月，人们惊讶地发现，美国外交官的家属已开始悄悄离开，直到他们的孩子开始在学校与同学告别后，人们才得知这一消息。许多离开的人此前在三月份伊朗战争高峰期被调离岗位，不久前才返回，因此，此次离境让人感到一种令人沮丧和混乱的似曾相识。

Mahmud Hams/法新社/盖蒂图片社

据美联社报道，有消息称数千名美军士兵被派往该地区，这加剧了当地居民的焦虑情绪。

在沙特阿拉伯，随着伊朗支持的胡塞武装加强袭击，重大活动已被取消，办公室关闭，员工远程办公。当地居民告诉 CNN，他们担心战争的再次爆发可能会给这个已经深陷南部边境冲突的国家带来更大的压力。

“我的邻居和朋友们都在为11月做准备，但他们也开始担心假期期间的航班会受到影响，”这位36岁的美国公民在沙特阿拉伯说道，并将这种情况与新冠疫情时期进行了比较。“很多公司都转为线上办公或裁员，远程学习也已经普及。”

该地区其他地方的其他国际会议仍在按计划进行，但如果美国在下周发动袭击，这些会议仍有可能受到干扰。

据路透社报道，自五月以来未发生任何袭击事件的阿布扎比​​，两家美国石油公司以安全担忧为由，取消了其高管出席该地区规模最大的石油会议之一的计划。会议主办方DMG告诉路透社，该会议将于下周按计划举行，届时将有“强大的”美国参与，并有超过120家美国公司参展。

据组织者称，预计将有近24万人参加此次会议。

巴林是今年受伊朗袭击最严重的国家之一，那里的人们表示，他们仍然能感受到战争带来的心理影响。

“那种创伤后遗症依然存在，”21岁的法瓦兹告诉CNN。“听到爆炸声，就像心痛一样，晚上很难入睡，尤其是在外面发生爆炸的时候。”

“现在很多人已经习惯了，但这仍然很可怕，”他补充道。

尽管人们对战争可能再次爆发感到日益担忧，但过去一周以来，各方悄然展开了一系列外交斡旋。

据伊朗媒体报道，美国副总统万斯致函伊朗最高安全官员穆赫辛·雷扎伊，伊朗方面正在审阅此信。特朗普声称这封信与伊朗请求提供医疗物资有关，但这封信的出现燃起了人们对外交突破仍有可能实现的希望。

一位卡塔尔官员表示，伊朗官员正在卡塔尔进行会谈。卡塔尔在斡旋中发挥了重要作用，但这位官员补充说，周六没有美国代表团出席。

图片由 Leah Abucayan/Alberto Mier/CNN/Getty Images 提供

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与特朗普的警告截然相反，美国驻土耳其大使兼叙利亚和伊拉克问题特使汤姆·巴拉克告诉CNN的贝基·安德森，他认为未来两周可能会出现“戏剧性的举措”。

“我们很接近了。我认为我们离最终能够说出‘让我们暂停一下’这句话已经非常接近了，”他说道，并补充说，但这“是一个信任问题，以及谁先来的问题”。

伊朗官员表示，他们愿意与美国进行外交对话，但他们不相信谈判能够阻止军事打击，并列举了过去几次在谈判期间伊朗遭到袭击的事件。

一位核心人物还警告说，伊朗不准备妥协。

伊朗议会议长穆罕默德·巴格尔·加利巴夫正在领导与美国的谈判，他表示：“伊朗已多次明确地向调解人陈述了其条件。胡萝卜加大棒的策略对伊朗无效。只有在伊朗提出的七项条件得到同意后，才能取得进展。”