Legal filing questions Trump’s claims of non-citizen voting in California

Data scientists find that many ‘likely non-citizens’ identified by the Trump administration were erroneously flagged.

A man walks past an early voting location in Bakersfield, California, on October 22 [Carlos Barria/Reuters]

A new court filing has cast further doubt on the accuracy of a list of “likely non-citizen” voters that the administration of United States President Donald Trump sent to the state of California ahead of the midterm elections.

On Saturday, the Coalition for Humane Immigrant Rights (CHIRLA), an advocacy group, submitted an analysis to the court conducted by two data scientists from the University of California, Los Angeles (UCLA).

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It found that more than four in every 10 names on the list were not on California’s voter rolls.

It also found that thousands of potentially eligible US citizens were incorrectly identified as ineligible to vote.

The Trump administration’s list, delivered to California in early October, had suggested that as many as 20,930 “likely non-citizens” were registered on the state’s voter rolls.

That list has formed the basis of a lawsuit, filed on October 15, that calls on California to sequester any ballots sent to those “likely non-citizens”, preventing them from being tallied as part of voting results.

The lawsuit is unfolding in the final days before Tuesday’s pivotal midterm elections, which will decide which party controls the US Congress, as well as key state and local offices.

Trump has expressed fear that, if his Republican Party loses its majorities in the two chambers of Congress, he could be impeached.

The Republican leader also has a track record of spreading false information about elections, including that his defeat in the 2020 presidential race was the result of a “rigged” vote.

He has often targeted California in his criticism. The state – the most populous in the country – is considered a longtime left-wing stronghold. It will elect 52 seats to the 435-member House of Representatives in Tuesday’s elections.

Already, Trump has accused California of “cheating” in its June 2 primary elections, after several Republican candidates underperformed, including Los Angeles mayoral hopeful Spencer Pratt.

Under the US Constitution’s Elections Clause, election administration falls solely to the states, though Congress may pass regulations governing voting.

Critics, including California’s Democratic Governor Gavin Newsom, have cited that fact in their rebuttal to Trump’s lawsuit.

All 50 states already prohibit non-citizen voting in federal elections and undertake measures to prevent voter fraud, which is considered exceedingly rare.

Other states that have received similar lists of “likely non-citizen” voters have also found significant errors in the Trump administration’s accounting. Nevada, for example, found that none of the names included on that list were non-citizen voters.

Such errors have raised concerns that eligible citizens would see their votes denied if the Trump administration wins its California lawsuit.

Still, the Trump administration has threatened state officials with prosecution over the potential for non-citizen voting.

It has also vigorously pursued its lawsuit through federal court. On Friday, the 9th Circuit Court of Appeals in San Francisco rejected the complaint a second time , determining it unconstitutional.

“We decline the United States’s invitation to contravene the Elections Clause by undermining the Constitution’s plain text,” the court majority wrote in its ruling.

In Saturday’s court filing, the data scientists from UCLA’s Voting Rights Project found that 8,880 names on the list were not listed anywhere in California’s current voter files, a proportion of 42 percent.

Many other names on the list were either confirmed as US citizens or may correspond to US citizens.

“This review proves, at least as a preponderance of the evidence, that demands of election officials under criminal and civil threats, endangers the voting rights of plaintiff CHIRLA’s members and clients,” the filing said.

It was co-signed by the Democratic candidate to succeed Newsom as governor, Xavier Becerra.

数据科学家发现，特朗普政府认定的许多“疑似非公民”都被错误地标记了。

10 月 22 日，一名男子走过加利福尼亚州贝克斯菲尔德的提前投票地点 [Carlos Barria/Reuters]

一份新的法庭文件进一步质疑了美国总统唐纳德·特朗普政府在中期选举前向加利福尼亚州提交的“可能非公民”选民名单的准确性。

周六，倡导组织“人道移民权利联盟”（CHIRLA）向法院提交了一份由加州大学洛杉矶分校（UCLA）的两名数据科学家进行的分析报告。

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调查发现，名单上超过十分之四的名字不在加利福尼亚州的选民名册上。

调查还发现，数千名可能符合投票资格的美国公民被错误地认定为没有投票资格。

特朗普政府于 10 月初向加利福尼亚州提交的名单显示，该州选民名册上登记了多达 20930 名“可能非公民”。

这份名单成为 10 月 15 日提起的一项诉讼的基础，该诉讼要求加利福尼亚州扣押任何寄给这些“可能非公民”的选票，以防止这些选票被计入投票结果。

这场诉讼发生在周二关键的中期选举前的最后几天，此次选举将决定哪个党派控制美国国会以及重要的州和地方职位。

特朗普曾表示担心，如果他的共和党失去在国会两院的多数席位，他可能会被弹劾。

这位共和党领导人还有散布有关选举的虚假信息的记录，包括声称他在 2020 年总统竞选中的失败是“操纵”投票的结果。

他经常将加利福尼亚州作为批评的焦点。这个美国人口最多的州长期以来被认为是左翼的堡垒。在周二的选举中，该州将选出众议院435个席位中的52个。

此前，包括洛杉矶市长候选人斯宾塞·普拉特在内的几位共和党候选人在6月2日的初选中表现不佳，特朗普已指责加州“作弊”。

根据美国宪法的选举条款，选举管理完全由各州负责，但国会可以制定管理投票的法规。

包括加州民主党州长加文·纽森在内的批评人士在反驳特朗普的诉讼时都引用了这一事实。

所有 50 个州都已禁止非公民在联邦选举中投票，并采取措施防止选民欺诈，而选民欺诈被认为极其罕见。

其他收到类似“疑似非公民”选民名单的州也发现特朗普政府的统计存在重大错误。例如，内华达州发现名单上没有一个名字是非公民选民。

此类错误引发了人们的担忧，即如果特朗普政府在加州的诉讼中胜诉，符合资格的公民的投票权将被剥夺。

尽管如此，特朗普政府仍威胁要起诉各州官员，指控他们存在非公民投票的可能性。

该公司还积极通过联邦法院提起诉讼。周五，位于旧金山的第九巡回上诉法院第二次驳回了该诉讼，裁定其违宪。

“我们拒绝美国通过破坏宪法明文来违反选举条款的邀请，”法院多数派在裁决中写道。

在周六提交给法院的文件中，加州大学洛杉矶分校投票权项目的数据科学家发现，名单上的 8880 个名字在加州当前的选民档案中没有列出，占比 42%。

名单上的许多其他名字要么已被证实是美国公民，要么可能与美国公民相符。

“本次审查至少从优势证据来看证明，在刑事和民事威胁下向选举官员提出要求，危及原告 CHIRLA 的成员和客户的投票权，”该文件称。

该提案由接替纽森担任州长的民主党候选人泽维尔·贝塞拉共同签署。