Italy forgoes $14 billion deficit spending on defense amid wobbling economy

ROME — The Italian government is giving up a chance to grab an extra €12 billion ($14 billion) in defense spending as it shifts its focus to keeping energy bills down ahead of national elections next year.

Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni has been toying with the idea of triggering a European Union scheme to exempt a quantity of defense spending from calculations of annual deficit spending to allow extra arms purchases without breaking EU deficit rules.

The so-called National Escape Clause (NEC) would have boosted Italian defense spending by about €12 billion over three years if used, sources have told Defense News — a handy sum as Italy strives to push its arms budget to 5% of GDP from the current 2%.

But when asked about the NEC this week, Italian prime minister Giorgia Meloni said, “Today we have other priorities. I have the priority of energy costs and the priority of responding to the needs of citizens.”

The decision followed years in which Meloni’s government urged the EU to set up a scheme like the NEC, arguing it was the only way to boost defense spending.

“I think there were different opinions about the NEC within the Italian government, with the economy minister Giancarlo Giorgetti against it,” said Alessandro Marrone, who heads the defense program at Rome think tank IAI.

“The extra spending would push up Italy’s deficit, even if the EU allowed it, at a time when Italy’s priority is fiscal credibility, energy prices and inflation,” he added.

The EU normally requires member states to keep their budget deficit below 3% of GDP or face infraction procedures. But if they use the NEC scheme they can now add on extra defense spending worth 1.5% of GDP, every year, for four years starting from 2025 without punishment.

So far 17 member states have participated in the scheme including Germany.

The NEC looked tailor made for Italy, which spent spent €29.18 billion on defense in 2024, equaling 1.54% of GDP and only made it to 2% in 2025 by inserting existing expenditures to its defense budget calculation.

Rome is now trying to reach five percent as per NATO targets. Last year it applied for €14.9 billion in so-called SAFE loans made available by the EU for defense spending.

Marrone said that using just the SAFE loan funds would however only get Italy to defense spending worth 2.5 percent of GDP.

In October, Rome said it would look into the NEC scheme if the SAFE loans were not enough to meet spending targets.

But Meloni’s government also said it did not want to use the NEC option while its annual deficit remained over 3%. This week, new figures showed the deficit was 3.1%, prompting Meloni to state Italy would not be using the NEC scheme.

“This was a policy choice by Italy - there is nothing to stop a member state using the NEC while they are over 3%. Others have,” said an EU official who spoke on condition of anonymity.

What may have persuaded Meloni to ignore the NEC option is opposition in Italy to hiked defense spending as voters prioritize the sagging economy and the threat of increased energy prices following the U.S.-Israeli attacks on Iran.

Italy’s economic outlook is set to become a political hot potato this year as Meloni seeks reelection in 2027.

Following news that Italy’s deficit spending was stuck at 3.1%, opposition leader Elly Schlein said Italy’s commitment to push defense spending to 5% was “mistaken, unobtainable and will irreparably damage our welfare.”

Tom Kington is the Italy correspondent for Defense News.

罗马——意大利政府放弃了获得额外 120 亿欧元（140 亿美元）国防开支的机会，转而将重点放在明年全国大选前降低能源价格上。

总理乔治娅·梅洛尼一直在考虑启动欧盟的一项计划，该计划将一部分国防开支从年度赤字支出计算中豁免，以便在不违反欧盟赤字规则的情况下购买额外的武器。

据《防务新闻》报道，消息人士透露，如果启用所谓的“国家豁免条款”（NEC），意大利的国防开支将在三年内增加约 120 亿欧元——对于努力将军费预算从目前的 2% 提高到 GDP 的 5% 的意大利来说，这是一笔可观的数目。

但本周被问及NEC时，意大利总理乔治娅·梅洛尼表示：“如今我们有其他优先事项。我的首要任务是控制能源成本，并满足民众的需求。”

此前多年，梅洛尼政府一直敦促欧盟建立类似NEC的机制，认为这是提高国防开支的唯一途径。

“我认为意大利政府内部对NEC有不同的看法，经济部长詹卡洛·乔尔杰蒂就反对它，”罗马智库IAI国防项目负责人亚历山德罗·马罗内说。

他补充说：“即使欧盟允许，额外的支出也会推高意大利的财政赤字，而目前意大利的首要任务是财政信誉、能源价格和通货膨胀。”

欧盟通常要求成员国将预算赤字控制在GDP的3%以下，否则将面临违规处罚。但如果它们采用NEC方案，则可以从2025年起连续四年，每年增加相当于GDP 1.5%的额外国防开支，而无需受到惩罚。

目前已有17个成员国参与该计划，其中包括德国。

NEC 似乎是为意大利量身定制的，意大利在 2024 年的国防开支为 291.8 亿欧元，相当于 GDP 的 1.54%，而 2025 年，即使将现有支出纳入国防预算计算，国防开支也仅达到 2%。

罗马目前正努力达到北约设定的5%的目标。去年，罗马申请了欧盟提供的149亿欧元所谓“安全贷款”（SAFE贷款），用于国防开支。

马龙表示，如果仅使用 SAFE 贷款资金，意大利的国防开支只能达到国内生产总值的 2.5%。

10 月份，罗马方面表示，如果 SAFE 贷款不足以达到支出目标，将考虑 NEC 计划。

但梅洛尼政府也曾表示，在年度赤字超过3%的情况下，他们不愿启用NEC方案。本周公布的新数据显示，赤字为3.1%，这促使梅洛尼宣布意大利不会采用NEC方案。

一位不愿透露姓名的欧盟官员表示：“这是意大利的政策选择——没有任何规定阻止成员国在排放量超过3%的情况下使用NEC（国家排放交易体系）。其他国家也这样做过。”

促使梅洛尼忽略NEC方案的原因可能是意大利民众反对增加国防开支，因为选民们优先考虑的是疲软的经济以及美国和以色列袭击伊朗后能源价格上涨的威胁。

由于梅洛尼寻求在 2027 年连任，意大利的经济前景注定会成为今年的政治烫手山芋。

在得知意大利的财政赤字支出停滞在 3.1% 之后，反对党领袖埃莉·施莱因表示，意大利将国防开支提高到 5% 的承诺是“错误的、无法实现的，并且会对我们的福祉造成不可挽回的损害”。

汤姆·金顿是《防务新闻》驻意大利记者。