More than 50 million votes cast in US midterm elections: What does it mean?

A record number of early votes is cast as both parties campaign before Tuesday’s polls.

A person casts an early ballot at the Hamilton County Board of Elections in Norwood, Ohio [File: Samuel Corum/Pool via Reuters]

Early voting has surged in the 2026 United States midterm elections with more than 50 million Americans casting their ballots as of Sunday, according to an analysis by the University of Florida.

Most of the 50 states allow early in-person voting while all of them allow mail-in voting. About 23 million people voted through mail-in ballots, which President Donald Trump unsuccessfully tried to curb before the elections.

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With two days left to go before Election Day on Tuesday, support for Democrats was 51.5 percent and for Republicans 43.1 percent, the latest national polls suggested.

The president’s tariff policy and his decision to launch a war with Israel on Iran are hurting his Republican Party. Both have been blamed for contributing to a cost-of-living crisis.

Why are so many Americans voting early? How does it work?

Here’s what we know:

How many Americans have voted early?

Early voting gives US citizens a chance to cast their ballots before Election Day.

According to the US government, people may vote early in person in most states by visiting designated polling stations. All states offer vote-by-mail options, in which registered voters may receive and return ballots by Election Day by mail.

The number of states offering options to vote in person before November expanded from 24 in 2000 to 47 in 2026, plus Washington, DC. But early-voting periods, eligibility requirements and procedures vary widely by state.

This year, out of about 210 million registered voters, 53.14 million had voted early as of 6:56am East Coast time (11:56 GMT) on Sunday , according to the University of Florida analysis. This includes 29 million in-person votes and 23 million mail-in ballots.

In the 2022 midterm elections, 46 million people had voted early.

Early voting enthusiasm has been higher among Democrats this year with more than 11 million registered Democrats having voted early, compared with about 8 million registered Republicans, according to the university’s analysis.

Which states have seen a surge in early votes?

Early voting has particularly surged in the state of Texas, a key battleground, where more than 7 million people have already voted early. This is over 1.5 million more than voted early in the 2022 midterms, according to the University of Florida analysis.

According to an Associated Press polling analysis, in South Carolina, where Trump won by nearly 18 percentage points in 2024, early voting has surged 83 percent compared with the same point in 2022. The state has open races for governor and US Senate this year.

In Kansas, where Republican Senator Roger Marshall faces Democratic Methodist minister Adam Hamilton, early voting has increased 34 percent with roughly 83,000 more ballots cast than at the same point four years ago, AP reported.

In Maine, where Republican Senator Susan Collins faces Democratic former state Senate President Troy Jackson, early voting is up 44 percent. Michigan has also recorded roughly 409,000 more early votes than at the same point in 2022, a 32 percent increase.

Why are people voting early?

According to the University of Maryland’s Center for Democracy and Civic Engagement (CDCE), there are many reasons why Americans are voting early.

This could be because “some voters find early voting to be more logistically convenient than Election Day voting” or have been “mobilised” to vote early, it said.

“Many voters report voting early because of anxiety about the election or a feeling of wanting to ‘get it over with’ or ‘cross it off their list’ as soon as possible,” the CDCE said.

The centre added that some voters choose to vote early for social or cultural reasons. It noted how efforts like “Parties at the Polls” and community celebrations of voting “try to create a more celebratory environment at certain voting locations, especially during early in-person voting”.

While early turnout figures don’t show which candidates voters have chosen or what the final results will be, Democratic political strategist Celinda Lake told Al Jazeera this past week that many voters were looking for change.

“You got a lot of voters who say, ‘I’m going to do a Hail Mary for change, but I hope you do something,’” she said.

“We all just really want a better future for everyone, especially like the next generation,” one young voter told Al Jazeera.

Another young voter pointed to social media as a reason for the increased interest in the election. “Definitely social media. Social media and the media have put voting in the limelight,” the voter told Al Jazeera.

What has Trump said about mail-in voting?

Trump has repeatedly cast doubt on the security of mail-in voting, which enables people to vote early by mail. Trump, who himself has repeatedly voted by mail, cited debunked claims of widespread election fraud associated with it.

Mail-in ballots, which have been in place for decades, have been found to increase voter turnout and currently account for a third of all votes cast in the US.

State and county officials in eight states send ballots to the homes of all registered voters, who then mail them back before a deadline. The rest of the states send ballots only to the registered voters who request them. Voters may return the ballots through official election drop boxes. In some states, the ballots have to reach the voting centre by Election Day while in others, ballots postmarked by Election Day but received after it may still be counted.

Eight states, several of them Democratic-leaning – California, Colorado, Hawaii, Nevada, Oregon, Utah, Vermont and Washington – as well as the District of Columbia allow all elections to be conducted entirely by mail.

Others allow smaller elections to be conducted by mail.

Trump has falsely blamed his 2020 presidential election loss on mail-in voting fraud. He and his supporters also opposed changes made during the COVID-19 pandemic to expand mail-in voting.

In March, Trump signed an executive order directing the US Postal Service to take control of mail-in voting by designing new envelopes with special barcodes that would allow the federal government to ensure ballots are only from eligible voters.

For the midterms, that move would have forced all states to adopt a uniform envelope style in a short time.

Democrats and activists challenged the order in several courts, resulting in a series of back-and-forth rulings from May to August.

Last month, however, the Supreme Court rejected Trump’s bid to require the mail-in voting restrictions before this month’s elections.

周二正式投票前，两党展开竞选活动，提前投票人数创下纪录。

一名选民在俄亥俄州诺伍德市汉密尔顿县选举委员会提前投票。[图片：Samuel Corum/Pool via Reuters]

根据佛罗里达大学的一项分析，截至周日，已有超过5000万美国人在2026年美国中期选举中提前投票。

美国50个州中的大多数允许提前亲自投票，所有州都允许邮寄投票。约有2300万人通过邮寄选票投票，而唐纳德·特朗普总统在选举前曾试图限制邮寄投票，但最终未能成功。

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距离周二的选举日还有两天，最新的全国民调显示，民主党的支持率为 51.5%，共和党的支持率为 43.1%。

总统的关税政策以及他决定与以色列联手对伊朗开战，正在损害他的共和党。这两项政策都被认为是造成生活成本危机的原因之一。

为什么这么多美国人提前投票？具体流程是怎样的？

我们目前掌握的情况如下：

有多少美国人已经提前投票？

提前投票让美国公民有机会在选举日之前投票。

根据美国政府规定，大多数州允许选民提前亲自前往指定的投票站投票。所有州都提供邮寄投票选项，已登记的选民可以在选举日之前通过邮件收到并寄回选票。

允许选民在11月之前亲自投票的州数量从2000年的24个增加到2026年的47个，外加华盛顿特区。但各州的提前投票时间、资格要求和程序差异很大。

根据佛罗里达大学的分析，今年约有2.1亿注册选民，截至周日美国东部时间上午6点56分（格林尼治标准时间11点56分），已有5314万人提前投票。这其中包括2900万张现场投票和2300万张邮寄选票。

2022年中期选举中，有4600万人提前投票。

根据该大学的分析，今年民主党人的提前投票热情更高，已有超过 1100 万注册民主党人提前投票，而注册共和党人提前投票人数约为 800 万。

哪些州的提前投票人数激增？

在关键的摇摆州德克萨斯州，提前投票人数尤其激增，已有超过700万人提前投票。根据佛罗里达大学的分析，这比2022年中期选举的提前投票人数多出150多万。

据美联社民调分析显示，在2024年特朗普以近18个百分点优势获胜的南卡罗来纳州，提前投票率比2022年同期激增了83%。该州今年将举行州长和联邦参议员的竞选。

据美联社报道，在堪萨斯州，共和党参议员罗杰·马歇尔与民主党卫理公会牧师亚当·汉密尔顿展开角逐，提前投票人数比四年前同期增加了 34%，大约增加了 83000 张选票。

在缅因州，共和党参议员苏珊·柯林斯将与民主党前州参议院议长特洛伊·杰克逊展开角逐，该州的提前投票人数增加了44%。密歇根州的提前投票人数也比2022年同期增加了约40.9万人，增幅达32%。

人们为什么提前投票？

根据马里兰大学民主与公民参与中心 (CDCE) 的说法，美国人提前投票的原因有很多。

报告称，这可能是因为“一些选民发现提前投票在后勤方面比选举日投票更方便”，或者他们已被“动员起来”提前投票。

CDCE表示：“许多选民表示，他们提前投票是因为对选举感到焦虑，或者想要尽快‘结束选举’或‘从待办事项清单上划掉’。”

该中心补充说，一些选民选择提前投票是出于社会或文化原因。中心指出，诸如“投票站派对”和社区庆祝投票的活动“旨在为某些投票站，尤其是在提前现场投票期间，营造更具庆祝氛围的氛围”。

虽然早期投票率数据无法显示选民选择了哪些候选人或最终结果会是什么，但民主党政治策略家塞琳达·莱克上周告诉半岛电视台，许多选民都在寻求改变。

她说：“很多选民会说，‘我要孤注一掷，争取改变，但我希望你们能做点什么。’”

一位年轻选民告诉半岛电视台：“我们都真心希望每个人都能拥有更美好的未来，尤其是下一代。”

另一位年轻选民指出，社交媒体是人们对选举兴趣日益浓厚的原因之一。“绝对是社交媒体。社交媒体和媒体让投票成为公众关注的焦点，”这位选民告诉半岛电视台。

特朗普对邮寄投票说了些什么？

特朗普一再质疑邮寄投票的安全性，邮寄投票允许人们提前投票。特朗普本人曾多次通过邮寄投票，但他却引用已被揭穿的关于邮寄投票存在大规模选举舞弊的说法。

邮寄投票制度已经实施了几十年，事实证明，它可以提高选民投票率，目前占美国所有投票数的三分之一。

八个州的州和县级官员会将选票寄送到所有已登记选民的家中，选民需在截止日期前寄回选票。其余各州则只向提出申请的已登记选民寄送选票。选民也可以通过官方的选举投票箱寄回选票。在一些州，选票必须在选举日当天送达投票中心；而在另一些州，即使邮戳日期为选举日当天，但之后收到的选票也可能被计入。

八个州（其中几个倾向于民主党的州——加利福尼亚州、科罗拉多州、夏威夷州、内华达州、俄勒冈州、犹他州、佛蒙特州和华盛顿州）以及哥伦比亚特区允许所有选举完全通过邮寄方式进行。

其他一些州允许以邮寄方式进行小规模选举。

特朗普错误地将2020年总统大选的失败归咎于邮寄投票舞弊。他和他的支持者还反对在新冠疫情期间为扩大邮寄投票范围而做出的改变。

今年 3 月，特朗普签署了一项行政命令，指示美国邮政局通过设计带有特殊条形码的新信封来控制邮寄投票，以便联邦政府能够确保选票只来自合格选民。

如果中期选举采取这一举措，将会迫使所有州在短时间内采用统一的信封样式。

民主党人和活动人士在多个法院对该命令提出质疑，导致从 5 月到 8 月出现了一系列反复的裁决。

然而，上个月，最高法院驳回了特朗普要求在本月选举前实施邮寄投票限制的请求。