Doubts on AI investment to test Korean economy

Global AI investment is increasingly reliant on debt as major technology companies face financing pressures, raising concerns that a slowdown could weaken memory-chip demand and hurt Korea’s semiconductor-dependent economy. Alphabet, Meta and Amazon have reported negative free cash flow as they fund AI infrastructure, while credit-risk indicators for Meta and Amazon have risen. Samsung Electronics and SK hynix say their high-bandwidth memory supplies are sold out through at least next year, but their outlook depends on continued investment by hyperscalers. Semiconductors accounted for 49 percent of Korea’s October exports, amplifying the potential economic impact of shifts in AI spending or chip prices.

Alphabet’s capital expenditures equaled 121.4 percent of its operating cash flow, and its third-quarter free cash flow was negative $9.07 billion for a second consecutive quarter.

Meta reported a third-quarter free-cash-flow deficit of $2.1 billion, while Amazon’s deficit reached $42.4 billion over the preceding 12 months.

Amazon issued $25 billion in corporate bonds in July after raising $37 billion four months earlier, and Meta announced plans on Oct. 27 to raise up to $97.5 billion through equity offerings.

Omdia said global smartphone shipments fell 20 percent year-on-year in the third quarter of 2026, reaching their lowest third-quarter level since 2013 amid rising memory-chip prices.

Korea’s cumulative exports from January through October reached $930 billion, and semiconductors made up 49 percent of total exports in October.

Published Nov 2, 2026 3:08 pm KST

Updated Nov 2, 2026 3:47 pm KST

Korea has 3 to 4 years to prepare for post-memory boom economy

Image generated by ChatGPT

Growing concerns over the sustainability of the global artificial intelligence (AI) investment boom are translating into mounting financing pressures on major tech companies, raising fears that a slowdown in AI spending could deal an outsized blow to Korea's semiconductor-dependent economy.

Tech giants such as Google, Meta and Amazon are heavily relying on debt to finance their massive capital expenditures, as borrowing costs continue to rise. This also adds pressure to the fundraising plans of AI developers such as OpenAI and Anthropic.

This could eventually slow the pace of AI investment and weigh on memory chip prices, potentially sending shock waves through Korea's broader economy, which heavily relies on corporate tax revenue from Samsung Electronics and SK hynix.

Google's parent company Alphabet disclosed on Wednesday that its capital expenditures amounted to 121.4 percent of the cash generated from operating activities, meaning the company spent more on investments, mostly in AI infrastructure, than it generated from its operations.

Its free cash flow (FCF) remained negative for the second consecutive quarter, recording a deficit of $9.07 billion in the third quarter. Following the announcement, Alphabet shares plunged 13.9 percent over the following two trading sessions on Thursday and Friday.

Meta and Amazon face similar situations. Meta reported negative FCF of $2.1 billion in the third quarter, while Amazon recorded an FCF deficit of $42.4 billion over the past 12 months.

Both companies have increasingly relied on debt and equity financing to cover shortfalls from their AI infrastructure investments. Amazon issued $25 billion in corporate bonds in July, just four months after raising $37 billion. Meta also announced plans on Oct. 27 to raise up to $97.5 billion through equity offerings.

In July, Goldman Sachs projected that Big Tech companies would finance more than a third of their AI investments through debt in 2027. That prediction now appears to be materializing, as major technology companies increasingly turn to borrowing to sustain their AI infrastructure spending.

Samsung executives hold a seminar joined by OpenAI CEO Sam Altman at Samsung Human Resources Development Center in Yongin, Gyeonggi Province, Sunday. Courtesy of Samsung Electronics

These developments also suggest that investors are becoming increasingly concerned about the credit risks from AI investments.

According to CNBC, Meta's credit default swap spread, a derivative-based indicator that reflects investors' perceptions of a company's credit risk, was up 177 percent year to date as of Oct. 27, while Amazon's spread had risen 129 percent.

AI developers are also facing difficulties in securing funding. During his visit to Korea last weekend, OpenAI CEO Sam Altman met with top executives from Samsung Electronics and SK Group. While the meetings were publicly described as discussions about the future of AI, industry officials believe Altman also sought to discuss ways to stabilize memory chip supplies, share investment costs and strengthen capital ties.

When hyperscalers and AI developers face a slowdown in fundraising, concerns also grow that growth in orders for memory chips — a key driver of Korea's economy — could slow.

Samsung Electronics and SK hynix each reported record-breaking earnings last week, with both companies saying their high-bandwidth memory supplies are sold out through at least next year. Samsung expects demand to outpace supply through 2028, while SK hynix projects the imbalance will persist until 2030.

However, these forecasts are based on market expectations that hyperscalers will increase their investments by more than 60 percent year-on-year in 2027. If those investment plans are affected, the outlook for the broader memory chip market could also be shaken.

Another potential risk is that soaring memory chip prices are beginning to weigh on demand.

Market tracker Omdia said Monday that global smartphone shipments plunged 20 percent year-on-year in the third quarter of 2026, hitting their lowest third-quarter level since 2013, due to rising memory chip prices. Intel shares plunged 28.6 percent on Friday amid weakening PC demand. Although these developments have so far been concentrated in consumer devices, concerns are growing that servers and AI data centers could eventually face a similar squeeze.

“The problem is that Big Tech companies’ capital expenditures are growing faster than their operating cash flows, creating greater uncertainty over how they will finance them,” Kiwoom Securities analyst Han Ji-young said.

“As Intel's case has shown, concerns about weakening business-to-consumer demand due to rising memory chip prices have yet to be resolved, so investors are likely to remain cautious.”

Samsung Electronics and SK hynix chips are loaded onto a Korean Air cargo aircraft bound for Hong Kong at Incheon International Airport, July 30. Joint Press Corps

If the semiconductor industry falters, the broader Korean economy could also suffer. The Ministry of Trade, Industry and Resources announced Sunday that Korea's cumulative exports from January through October reached $930 billion, surpassing the $900 billion mark for the first time. If the trend continues, the country is expected to become the world's fourth economy to achieve $1 trillion in annual exports by the end of this year.

In particular, semiconductors accounted for 49 percent of total exports in October, effectively serving as the main driver of the export-dependent Korean economy.

The chip industry's strong performance has also translated into higher tax revenue and provided fiscal support for the government, with President Lee Jae Myung unveiling a record 821 trillion won budget proposal in his address to the National Assembly on Monday.

This also means that any shifts in global AI investment trends or chip prices could have an amplified impact on the broader Korean economy.

“The next three to four years, during which the semiconductor boom is expected to continue, will be a critical window for Korea to prepare for what comes afterward,” said Jang Sang-sik, head of trade trend analysis at the Korea International Trade Association.

“Memory chipmakers say they have sufficient orders and have signed long-term agreements, but that does not always shield them from price fluctuations, while signs of growing difficulties in financing AI investments are also emerging … Korea therefore needs to diversify its semiconductor industry beyond memory chips and expand exports in other industries, while continuing to strengthen semiconductors as a strategic asset.”

由于大型科技公司面临融资压力，全球人工智能投资越来越依赖债务融资，这引发了人们的担忧：经济放缓可能会削弱存储芯片需求，并损害韩国这个依赖半导体产业的经济。Alphabet、Meta和亚马逊在为人工智能基础设施建设提供资金的过程中，均报告了负自由现金流，而Meta和亚马逊的信用风险指标也有所上升。三星电子和SK海力士表示，其高带宽内存供应至少已售罄至明年，但它们的前景取决于超大规模数据中心运营商的持续投资。半导体占韩国10月份出口总额的49%，这放大了人工智能支出或芯片价格变化可能带来的经济影响。

Alphabet 的资本支出相当于其经营现金流的 121.4%，其第三季度自由现金流连续第二个季度为负 90.7 亿美元。

Meta公司第三季度自由现金流赤字为21亿美元，而亚马逊在前12个月的赤字达到424亿美元。

亚马逊在四个月前筹集了 370 亿美元后，于 7 月份发行了 250 亿美元的公司债券；Meta 于 10 月 27 日宣布计划通过股权发行筹集高达 975 亿美元的资金。

Omdia表示，由于内存芯片价格上涨，2026年第三季度全球智能手机出货量同比下降20%，达到2013年以来的最低第三季度水平。

韩国1月至10月累计出口额达9300亿美元，其中10月份半导体产品占出口总额的49%。

发布于2026年11月2日下午3:08（韩国标准时间）

更新于2026年11月2日下午3:47（韩国标准时间）

韩国有3到4年的时间为后记忆繁荣经济做好准备

图片由 ChatGPT 生成

人们越来越担心全球人工智能 (AI) 投资热潮的可持续性，这给大型科技公司带来了越来越大的融资压力，引发了人们的担忧：人工智能支出放缓可能会对依赖半导体的韩国经济造成巨大打击。

由于借贷成本持续上涨，谷歌、Meta和亚马逊等科技巨头正严重依赖债务融资来支付其庞大的资本支出。这也给OpenAI和Anthropic等人工智能开发商的融资计划带来了压力。

这最终可能会减缓人工智能投资的步伐，并对存储芯片价格造成压力，进而可能对严重依赖三星电子和 SK 海力士企业税收的韩国整体经济造成冲击。

谷歌母公司 Alphabet 周三披露，其资本支出占经营活动产生的现金的 121.4%，这意味着该公司在投资（主要是人工智能基础设施）上的支出超过了其运营收入。

其自由现金流（FCF）连续第二个季度为负，第三季度亏损90.7亿美元。消息公布后，Alphabet股价在周四和周五的两个交易日内暴跌13.9%。

Meta和亚马逊面临着类似的情况。Meta第三季度自由现金流为负21亿美元，而亚马逊过去12个月的自由现金流亏损高达424亿美元。

两家公司都越来越依赖债务和股权融资来弥补人工智能基础设施投资的资金缺口。亚马逊在7月份发行了250亿美元的公司债券，而就在四个月前，该公司刚刚筹集了370亿美元。Meta也在10月27日宣布计划通过股权发行筹集高达975亿美元的资金。

今年7月，高盛预测，到2027年，大型科技公司将通过债务融资为其人工智能投资提供超过三分之一的资金。如今，这一预测似乎正在成为现实，因为大型科技公司越来越多地转向借贷来维持其人工智能基础设施支出。

周日，三星高管在位于京畿道龙仁市的三星人力资源开发中心举行研讨会，OpenAI首席执行官Sam Altman也出席了此次研讨会。图片由三星电子提供。

这些事态发展也表明，投资者越来越关注人工智能投资带来​​的信用风险。

据 CNBC 报道，截至 10 月 27 日，Meta 的信用违约互换利差（一种反映投资者对公司信用风险看法的衍生品指标）今年迄今已上涨 177%，而亚马逊的利差上涨了 129%。

人工智能开发者在融资方面也面临困境。上周末，OpenAI首席执行官萨姆·奥特曼访问韩国期间，会见了三星电子和SK集团的高管。虽然公开宣称会谈内容是关于人工智能的未来，但业内人士认为，奥特曼此行也意在探讨如何稳定内存芯片供应、分担投资成本以及加强资本联系。

当超大规模数据中心和人工智能开发商面临融资放缓时，人们也越来越担心，作为韩国经济关键驱动力的内存芯片订单增长可能会放缓。

三星电子和SK海力士上周均公布了创纪录的盈利，两家公司均表示，其高带宽内存的供应至少已售罄至明年。三星预计到2028年，需求将持续超过供应，而SK海力士则预测这种供需失衡的局面将持续到2030年。

然而，这些预测是基于市场预期，即超大规模数据中心运营商在 2027 年的投资将同比增长 60% 以上。如果这些投资计划受到影响，更广泛的存储芯片市场的前景也可能受到冲击。

另一个潜在风险是，内存芯片价格飙升开始抑制需求。

市场研究机构Omdia周一表示，受内存芯片价格上涨的影响，2026年第三季度全球智能手机出货量同比下降20%，创下2013年以来的第三季度最低水平。英特尔股价上周五暴跌28.6%，原因是个人电脑需求疲软。尽管这些变化目前主要集中在消费电子设备领域，但人们越来越担心服务器和人工智能数据中心最终也可能面临类似的困境。

“问题在于，大型科技公司的资本支出增长速度超过了其经营现金流的增长速度，这使得它们如何融资变得更加不确定，”Kiwoom Securities 分析师韩智英表示。

“正如英特尔的案例所表明的那样，由于内存芯片价格上涨导致企业对消费者需求疲软的担忧尚未消除，因此投资者可能会继续保持谨慎。”

7月30日，在仁川国际机场，三星电子和SK海力士的芯片被装载到一架飞往香港的大韩航空货机上。（联合新闻社）

如果半导体产业出现衰退，韩国整体经济也可能受到影响。韩国产业通商资源部周日宣布，今年1月至10月韩国累计出口额达到9300亿美元，首次突破9000亿美元大关。如果这一趋势持续下去，韩国有望在今年年底成为全球第四个年出口额达到1万亿美元的经济体。

尤其值得一提的是，半导体在10月份占韩国出口总额的49%，有效地成为依赖出口的韩国经济的主要驱动力。

芯片行业的强劲表现也转化为更高的税收收入，为政府提供了财政支持。周一，李在明总统在向国会发表讲话时，公布了创纪录的 821 万亿韩元预算提案。

这也意味着全球人工智能投资趋势或芯片价格的任何变化都可能对韩国整体经济产生更大的影响。

韩国国际贸易协会贸易趋势分析负责人张相植表示：“预计未来三到四年半导体行业将继续蓬勃发展，这将是韩国为之后的发展做好准备的关键时期。”

“存储芯片制造商表示，他们订单充足，并已签署长期协议，但这并不能完全保护他们免受价格波动的影响，同时人工智能投资融资困难的迹象也日益显现……因此，韩国需要使其半导体产业多元化，摆脱对存储芯片的依赖，并扩大其他行业的出口，同时继续加强半导体作为战略资产的地位。”