Back by sustained global AI demand, manufacturing firms in Singapore optimistic about next six months: EDB survey

Manufacturing firms in Singapore remain optimistic about the next six months despite geopolitical developments continuing to cloud the global economic outlook.

This was revealed in an Economic Development Board (EDB) survey on Monday (Nov 2) involving 397 manufacturing firms, conducted between September and October.

They were asked to indicate their expectation of general business conditions and other indicators such as output and employment for the period between October this year and March 2027.

According to the Business Expectations of Manufacturing Sector survey, a weighted 29 per cent of manufacturers expected business conditions to improve from the third quarter, while 5 per cent foresee weaker conditions.

Among them, precision engineering companies, led by semiconductor-related equipment firms, are the most upbeat, expecting global artificial intelligence (AI)-related investment to continue expanding.

This was followed by firms in the electronics cluster, driven by robust orders secured for semiconductors used in AI applications.

Both these sectors similarly led the chart during the last round of survey conducted between June and July.

The chemicals sector remained the most pessimistic, with firms in the petroleum segment remaining concerned about persistent uncertainty in crude oil feedstock supply from the Middle East.

Meanwhile, transport engineering firms, while with a net weighted positive sentiment, expect headwinds to their business outlook owing to rising costs in areas such as materials, fuel and freight.

Overseas competition was also cited as a reason.

Output, export orders, job forecast for Q4

A net weighted balance of 34 per cent of manufacturers are expecting their output to increase in Q4 2026, up from the 26 per cent forecast for the third quarter.

Among manufacturing businesses, all sectors — except for transport engineering businesses — are expecting their production to increase.

In particular, the electronics cluster, the semiconductors and computers peripherals and data storage segments expect higher production of semiconductors and data storage products, to cater to buoyant demand from AI data centres.

The transport engineering cluster's sentiment returns are premised on expectations of lower production of oil and gas-field equipment owing to geopolitical uncertainties weighing on clients' orders.

A net weighted balance of 72 per cent of firms in the manufacturing sector expect employment levels in the fourth quarter to remain broadly similar as the last quarter.

Only the biomedical manufacturing and transport engineering sectors are projecting drops in employment levels.

尽管地缘政治局势持续给全球经济前景蒙上阴影，但新加坡的制造业企业对未来六个月仍保持乐观。

新加坡经济发展局 (EDB) 周一（11 月 2 日）公布的一项调查显示，9 月至 10 月期间，共有 397 家制造企业参与了调查。

他们被要求指出对今年 10 月至 2027 年 3 月期间的总体商业状况和其他指标（如产出和就业）的预期。

根据制造业行业商业预期调查，29%的制造商预计商业环境将从第三季度开始改善，而5%的制造商预计商业环境将恶化。

其中，以半导体相关设备公司为首的精密工程公司最为乐观，预计全球人工智能（AI）相关投资将继续扩大。

随后，电子产业集群中的企业也纷纷上涨，这主要得益于人工智能应用中使用的半导体获得了强劲的订单。

在 6 月至 7 月进行的上一轮调查中，这两个行业同样位居榜首。

化工行业依然最为悲观，石油行业的企业仍然担心来自中东的原油原料供应持续存在不确定性。

与此同时，尽管交通工程公司整体情绪偏向积极，但由于材料、燃料和货运等领域的成本上升，预计其业务前景将面临不利因素。

海外竞争也被认为是原因之一。

第四季度产量、出口订单、就业预测

净加权平均值显示，34% 的制造商预计其产量将在 2026 年第四季度增加，高于第三季度 26% 的预测值。

除交通工程企业外，制造业所有部门都预计产量将会增加。

特别是电子产业集群、半导体及计算机外围设备和数据存储领域，预计半导体和数据存储产品的产量将会增加，以满足人工智能数据中心旺盛的需求。

交通工程集群的情绪回报是基于对油气田设备产量下降的预期，因为地缘政治的不确定性影响了客户的订单。

制造业企业中，72% 的企业预计第四季度就业水平将与上一季度大致相同。

只有生物医药制造和运输工程行业预计就业水平会下降。