Here’s where Trump’s housing agenda stands before midterms

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America’s housing market is paralyzed, with buyers pulling back and builders growing more pessimistic ahead of the midterms.

Adding to the strain: Mortgage rates have surged back above 7% in recent weeks, hitting a three-year high of 7.4% last month. The average 30-year fixed rate eased slightly to 7.24% last week, according to Freddie Mac.

America’s housing woes run deep. Homebuilding hasn’t kept pace with demand since the 2008 financial crash decimated the country’s housing industry. Elevated mortgage rates have also pushed up monthly payments for buyers, all while home prices keep climbing each month to record-high levels.

As of the third quarter, the average household must earn $115,600 in income to afford the typical cost of housing – that’s 75% higher than the $66,200 required five years ago, according to Oxford Economics.

That has translated to the number of homes trading hands to hover near 30-year lows for the past three years.

President Donald Trump won the 2024 election amid growing frustration over the cost of living. Two years later, affordability remains a defining issue heading into the midterm elections, as Americans continue to grapple with high prices for housing, groceries, gasoline and other everyday essentials.

But while the White House has taken some steps aimed at housing affordability during Trump’s second term, largely through executive orders, the issue has featured relatively little in the administration’s public messaging over the last two years.

Trump, who was a real estate developer for decades, said on the 2024 campaign trail that his plan for tackling the cost of housing would primarily rely on lowering interest rates.

He doubled down on that promise this year.

“People that own their homes, we’re going to keep them wealthy. We’re going to keep those prices up. We’re not going to destroy the value of their homes,” Trump said at a cabinet meeting at the start of this year. “We’re going to make it easier to buy. We’re going to get interest rates down.”

For a brief moment, mortgage rates appeared poised to fall. In January, Trump directed Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, the government-sponsored enterprises that underpin much of the US mortgage market, to buy $200 billion in mortgage-backed securities in an effort to push rates lower.

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Rates dropped earlier in the year, dipping below 6% in February for the first time since 2022, when the Federal Reserve began its fight against post-pandemic inflation, raising hopes that cheaper borrowing would ease the housing affordability crunch.

But the reprieve was short-lived. Mortgage rates climbed once again after the US began its war with Iran, and have remained elevated since.

Mortgage rates are tied to the 10-year Treasury yield, which moves with investors’ expectations for inflation, economic growth and the Fed’s interest rate policy. In recent months, the bond market has been hit by renewed inflation fears, an oil-price shock linked to the Iran conflict, rising federal deficits and a surge in AI investment.

And early signs point to the bond market turmoil adding to the housing market’s woes.

Pending home sales fell to a record low in September, in data going back to 2001, according to the National Association of Realtors. New home construction also dropped to a four-month low, Census Bureau data showed, as elevated borrowing costs continue to weigh on the market.

The gloom is spreading to builders, too: Homebuilder sentiment, a measure of how confident the industry feels about the housing market, sank to a 14-year low in September, according to the latest survey from the National Association of Home Builders.

Overall, the housing market’s issues are going to take a long time to solve.

But some bright spots remain: Rents have stabilized nationally over the last few years, said Yonah Freemark, a principal research associate in the Housing and Communities Division at the Urban Institute. That’s partly due to increased multifamily apartment construction between 2020 and 2024, which helped relieve demand pressures, he added.

Overall, the federal government may not have much power to affect the housing market’s supply, because zoning and permitting decisions are made by local and state governments, said Daryl Fairweather, Redfin’s chief economist.

“In places that have been builder-friendly and have allowed supply to meet demand, we have seen prices come down and affordability improve,” Fairweather said, pointing to Austin, Texas, as an example, which has seen home prices fall from their peak in 2022. The city expanded its housing stock by roughly 30% between 2015 and 2024, according to Pew.

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Last month, Trump signed an executive order that directs federal agencies to ease the burden of mortgage insurance and refinance costs, among other measures.

“President Trump has been laser-focused on making housing more affordable,” said Davis Ingle, a White House spokesperson. “The President will not stop fighting until the American Dream of homeownership is within reach for every American, which is why he continues to sign bold new executive orders and calls on Congress to pass further legislation.”

But the White House’s tariff regime has added to the cost of building housing, according to the NAHB – and deportations have slowed home-building projects in many areas that rely on an immigrant construction workforce.

Some White House proposals to improve housing affordability never materialized, such as a 50-year mortgage or the ability to make mortgages portable , which would allow homeowners with lower rates to take their existing loan to a new property when they move.

Most housing initiatives were also handled by executive order, rather than through legislation.

The one exception was the ROAD to Housing Act, which Congress passed with broad bipartisan support this summer. The bill included measures to increase the supply of housing and a provision to limit large investor purchases of single-family homes, which codified into law one of Trump’s executive orders.

However, Trump allowed the measure to become law without his signature, rather than signing it or vetoing it. At the time, Trump called the housing bill “a big yawn” and “of minor importance.”

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美国房地产市场陷入瘫痪，购房者纷纷撤离，建筑商在中期选举前也越来越悲观。

雪上加霜的是：近几周抵押贷款利率飙升至7%以上，上个月更是触及三年来的最高点7.4%。据房地美（Freddie Mac）的数据显示，上周30年期固定利率平均略微回落至7.24%。

美国的住房困境由来已久。自2008年金融危机重创美国房地产行业以来，房屋建造速度一直跟不上需求。高企的抵押贷款利率也推高了购房者的月供，与此同时，房价却持续攀升，屡创新高。

根据牛津经济研究院的数据，截至第三季度，普通家庭必须年收入达到 115,600 美元才能负担得起典型的住房成本——这比五年前所需的 66,200 美元高出 75%。

这意味着过去三年房屋交易数量一直徘徊在 30 年来的最低水平附近。

在民众对生活成本日益增长的不满情绪中，唐纳德·特朗普总统赢得了2024年大选。两年过去了，生活成本问题仍然是中期选举的关键议题，因为美国民众仍在努力应对住房、食品杂货、汽油和其他日常必需品的高昂价格。

虽然白宫在特朗普的第二个任期内采取了一些旨在提高住房可负担性的措施，主要通过行政命令，但在过去两年中，这个问题在政府的公开宣传中相对较少被提及。

曾从事房地产开发数十年的特朗普在 2024 年竞选期间表示，他解决住房成本问题的计划将主要依靠降低利率。

今年他加倍兑现了这一承诺。

“对于那些拥有房产的人，我们会让他们保持富裕。我们会维持房价高位。我们不会摧毁他们的房产价值，”特朗普在今年年初的一次内阁会议上说。“我们会降低购房门槛。我们会降低利率。​​”

抵押贷款利率一度似乎即将下降。今年1月，特朗普指示房利美和房地美（这两家政府支持企业是美国抵押贷款市场的主要支撑机构）购买2000亿美元的抵押贷款支持证券，以期降低利率。

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今年早些时候利率有所下降，2 月份跌破 6%，这是自 2022 年以来首次跌破 6%。当时，美联储开始对抗疫情后的通胀，这燃起了人们的希望，认为更便宜的借贷将缓解住房负担能力危机。

但这种喘息之机是短暂的。美国发动对伊朗的战争后，抵押贷款利率再次攀升，并一直居高不下。

抵押贷款利率与10年期美国国债收益率挂钩，而10年期国债收益率又随投资者对通胀、经济增长和美联储利率政策的预期而波动。近几个月来，债券市场受到通胀担忧再度加剧、与伊朗冲突相关的油价冲击、联邦赤字不断攀升以及人工智能投资激增等因素的影响。

早期迹象表明，债券市场的动荡加剧了房地产市场的困境。

据美国房地产经纪人协会的数据显示，9月份待售房屋数量跌至自2001年有记录以来的历史新低。人口普查局的数据显示，由于高企的借贷成本持续对市场构成压力，新房建设量也降至四个月以来的最低水平。

悲观情绪也蔓延到了建筑商身上：根据全美住宅建筑商协会的最新调查，衡量建筑商对住房市场信心的指标——住宅建筑商信心指数——在9月份跌至14年来的最低点。

总体而言，住房市场的问题需要很长时间才能解决。

但也有亮点：城市研究所住房与社区部门首席研究员约纳·弗里马克表示，过去几年全国租金已趋于稳定。他补充说，这部分归功于2020年至2024年间多户公寓建设的增加，这有助于缓解需求压力。

Redfin首席经济学家达里尔·费尔韦瑟表示，总体而言，联邦政府可能没有太大权力影响住房市场的供应，因为分区和许可决定是由地方和州政府做出的。

费尔韦瑟表示：“在那些对建筑商友好、允许供应满足需求的地区，我们看到房价下降，住房可负担性提高。”他以德克萨斯州奥斯汀为例，指出该市房价已从2022年的峰值回落。根据皮尤研究中心的数据，该市在2015年至2024年间住房存量增加了约30%。

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上个月，特朗普签署了一项行政命令，指示联邦机构减轻抵押贷款保险和再融资成本的负担，以及采取其他措施。

白宫发言人戴维斯·英格尔表示：“特朗普总统一直致力于降低住房成本。总统将不懈努力，直到每个美国人都能实现拥有住房的美国梦。正因如此，他不断签署新的行政命令，并呼吁国会通过更多立法。”

但据美国住宅建筑商协会 (NAHB) 称，白宫的关税政策增加了住房建设成本，而且在许多依赖移民建筑工人的地区，驱逐出境减缓了房屋建设项目。

白宫提出的一些改善住房负担能力的方案从未实现，例如 50 年抵押贷款或抵押贷款可转移性，这将允许利率较低的房主在搬家时将现有贷款转移到新房产。

大多数住房计划也是通过行政命令而不是立法来实施的。

唯一的例外是《住房之路法案》（ROAD to Housing Act），该法案于今年夏天获得国会两党广泛支持通过。该法案包含增加住房供应的措施，以及限制大型投资者购买独栋住宅的条款，该条款将特朗普的一项行政命令正式写入法律。

然而，特朗普既没有签署也没有否决这项法案，而是让它在没有他签字的情况下生效。当时，特朗普称这项住房法案“令人昏昏欲睡”且“无关紧要”。