CNA Explains: What happens to carbon credits when the forests protecting them burn?

Wildfires in Indonesia are threatening forests linked to carbon credit projects. What does this mean for companies that have paid to offset their emissions, and are the safeguards enough?

Firefighters spray water at a wildfire in Ogan Ilir, South Sumatra, Indonesia, Sep 11, 2026. (Photo: CNA/Wisnu Agung Prasetyo)

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Imagine paying to protect a forest thousands of kilometres away, only to see it go up in flames. Has the climate benefit you paid for gone up in smoke too?

Companies purchase carbon credits overseas, including from Indonesia, to offset emissions from their operations.

The market continues to attract interest, with 1,056 new buyers from the Asia-Pacific region entering the carbon credit market last year, according to carbon market database Allied Offsets.

But with Indonesia's wildfires reaching areas linked to carbon credit projects, questions are emerging over whether those credits remain valid, who bears the cost of the carbon released, and whether existing safeguards are sufficient.

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Why and how do firms buy carbon credits?

Carbon credits allow companies to compensate for emissions generated by activities such as air travel, shipping and manufacturing, by paying for emissions reductions or removals elsewhere.

One carbon credit represents 1 tonne of greenhouse gas emissions reduced or removed from the atmosphere.

Forest conservation projects, for instance, can generate credits by preventing deforestation and the release of carbon stored in trees and soil. Other projects earn credits by removing carbon dioxide already in the atmosphere.

Before these credits can be sold, the emissions saved must be calculated and independently verified.

Unlike projects that reduce emissions by replacing fossil fuels with cleaner energy, forest projects face an additional risk: Carbon stored in trees and soil can later be released through fires or deforestation.

Do forest fires wipe out the credit?

When a protected forest burns, carbon stored in its vegetation and soil can be released back into the atmosphere, potentially undoing some of the emissions savings that the project was credited for delivering.

However, a fire does not automatically invalidate all the carbon credits previously issued by a project.

Experts must first determine the extent of the damage and how much carbon has actually been released.

While satellite images can identify fire hotspots and burnt areas, they may not capture the full extent of the damage, particularly in peatlands where fires can continue burning underground.

Mr Bjorn Fonden, Asia-Pacific director at the International Emissions Trading Association (IETA), said assessing a fire's impact requires looking beyond the visible damage to determine whether the project has delivered its intended climate benefits.

"When we look at the fires, the question we ask is not simply are the trees still standing, but if the project prevented emissions that otherwise would have happened," he said.

He added that independent verifiers must conduct scientific field measurements, including assessing how much underground peat and biomass has burnt.

These findings are then used to establish whether previously credited emissions savings have been reversed.

A project affected by fire may generate fewer new credits in subsequent years. If the fire releases carbon associated with credits already issued, the loss may also need to be compensated for.

How are carbon credit buyers protected?

One of the main safeguards used by carbon credit programmes is an arrangement known as a buffer pool.

Under this system, a portion of the credits generated by forest projects is withheld from sale and placed in a shared reserve.

These credits act as insurance against unforeseen events, including wildfires, floods and other disasters.

When a reversal occurs – meaning carbon previously prevented from being released from the atmosphere is released back into it – credits from the buffer pool can be cancelled to compensate for the verified loss.

This is designed to compensate for carbon losses and preserve the integrity of credits already issued, although it cannot undo the emissions released by a disaster.

“The buffer pool is there not just from one project, but from maybe hundreds of projects around the world,” said IETA’s Mr Fonden.

“So, in the case of a reversal in one specific project, that can be complemented by results from other projects that do not have fire or other reversal risks.”

However, the system’s effectiveness depends on whether sufficient credits have been set aside to cover losses.

Could disasters overwhelm the safeguards?

While buffer pools are designed to manage losses, concerns are growing over whether they can withstand increasingly frequent and severe wildfires.

Climate change is raising the risk of extreme fire conditions in many forested regions, potentially exposing multiple carbon credit projects to damage at the same time.

If several large forests burn within a relatively short period, the carbon released could exceed the credits available in reserve.

Scientists have questioned whether existing buffer pools adequately account for such risks, particularly as historical fire patterns may no longer reliably predict future conditions.

So, who decides how many credits must be set aside?

Mr Ben Rattenbury from carbon ratings firm Sylvera said carbon crediting standards typically require projects to contribute a percentage of their issued credits to buffer pools, depending on the project type and its risks.

“Let's say (it could be) 5 per cent, or for some project types it might be higher, of the credits from a specific project required to go into the buffer pool,” he said.

“In terms of who decides how adequate the volume of credits in the buffer pool is, this would be the responsibility of the crediting standards.”

Some non-governmental organisations and other market observers also scrutinise the arrangements, he added.

Some standards have updated their risk calculations to better account for extreme weather and other threats.

But the challenge remains: If fire risks increase faster than the reserves intended to cover them, the system could face a shortfall.

Can carbon credits help prevent fires?

Experts say revenue from selling carbon credits can also help prevent fires.

Funds generated by these projects can support forest patrols, firefighting teams and early-warning systems, allowing authorities and local communities to detect and respond to fires before they spread.

In peatland areas, the money can also be used to maintain water levels and prevent the soil from drying out.

This is particularly important because peatlands store substantial amounts of carbon accumulated over thousands of years. When drained or dried out, they become highly vulnerable to fires that can smoulder underground and release large quantities of greenhouse gases.

However, the effectiveness of these measures varies between projects, making it important for prospective buyers to assess the risks before investing.

“Before (embarking) on a project, you need to do due diligence, either via satellite images or historical and forward-looking data for places likely to have these wildfires happening, and perhaps avoid those places,” said Ms Zhang Yiwen, co-founder of carbon removal startup CarbonSynk.

She also highlighted the importance of working with local communities and farmers to address practices that contribute to fire risks, as such measures can help prevent human activities from undermining the long-term protection of forests.

Despite the fires in Indonesia, demand for the country’s carbon credits has remained relatively steady.

Ms Oi-Yee Choo, CEO of Singapore-based carbon exchange Climate Impact X, said trading activity involving Indonesian credits on the company's platform has remained relatively stable.

“So far, we haven’t seen any impact on trading. (The fires) haven’t particularly hurt the depth of the sales of the Indonesian credits on our platform and the demand hasn't significantly shifted away,” she told CNA.

Forest carbon credits can finance conservation efforts and help protect ecosystems that might otherwise face deforestation or degradation.

But their value ultimately depends on whether the emissions reductions they represent can be sustained over time.

For companies buying forest carbon credits, the question is no longer simply whether a project can protect a forest today, but whether the climate benefits they are paying for can withstand the fires of tomorrow.

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印尼的野火正在威胁与碳信用项目相关的森林。这对已付费抵消其碳排放的公司意味着什么？现有的保障措施是否足够？

2026 年 9 月 11 日，消防队员在印度尼西亚南苏门答腊岛奥甘伊利尔的野火中喷水。（照片：CNA/Wisnu Agung Prasetyo）

这段音频由人工智能工具生成。

想象一下，你花钱保护了数千公里外的一片森林，结果却眼睁睁地看着它化为灰烬。你为此付出的气候效益是否也随之付诸东流了？

企业从海外（包括印度尼西亚）购买碳信用额，以抵消其运营产生的排放。

根据碳市场数据库 Allied Offsets 的数据，去年有 1056 位来自亚太地区的新买家进入碳信用市场，该市场持续吸引着人们的兴趣。

但随着印尼的野火蔓延到与碳信用项目相关的地区，人们开始质疑这些信用额度是否仍然有效，谁来承担释放的碳的成本，以及现有的保障措施是否足够。

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企业为何以及如何购买碳信用额度？

碳信用额度允许公司通过支付费用在其他地方减少或清除碳排放，来抵消航空旅行、航运和制造业等活动产生的排放。

一个碳信用额度代表减少或从大气中清除 1 吨温室气体排放。

例如，森林保护项目可以通过防止森林砍伐和释放储存在树木和土壤中的碳来获得碳信用额度。其他项目则通过去除大气中已有的二氧化碳来获得碳信用额度。

这些碳排放额度在出售之前，必须计算出减少的排放量，并进行独立核实。

与通过用更清洁的能源替代化石燃料来减少排放的项目不同，森林项目面临着额外的风险：储存在树木和土壤中的碳可能会通过火灾或森林砍伐释放出来。

森林火灾会抹杀信用记录吗？

当一片受保护的森林燃烧时，储存在其植被和土壤中的碳会释放回大气中，这可能会抵消该项目所取得的部分减排成果。

然而，火灾并不会自动使项目之前发放的所有碳信用额失效。

专家必须首先确定损害程度以及实际释放了多少碳。

虽然卫星图像可以识别火灾热点和烧毁区域，但它们可能无法捕捉到全部损失程度，尤其是在泥炭地，火灾可能会在地下继续燃烧。

国际排放交易协会 (IETA) 亚太区总监比约恩·方登先生表示，评估火灾的影响需要超越可见的损害，以确定该项目是否实现了其预期的气候效益。

他说：“当我们审视这些火灾时，我们提出的问题不仅仅是树木是否还屹立不倒，而是该项目是否阻止了原本会发生的排放。”

他还补充说，独立核查人员必须进行科学的实地测量，包括评估有多少地下泥炭和生物质被烧毁。

然后利用这些发现来确定之前已确认的减排量是否已被逆转。

受火灾影响的项目在随后几年可能产生的新碳信用额度减少。如果火灾释放的碳与已发放的碳信用额度相关，则可能还需要对此损失进行补偿。

如何保障碳信用买家的权益？

碳信用计划采用的主要保障措施之一是缓冲池机制。

根据该制度，森林项目产生的部分碳信用额度将不予出售，而是存入共享储备金。

这些信用额度可以作为保险，以应对包括野火、洪水和其他灾害在内的不可预见事件。

当发生逆转时——意味着先前阻止从大气中释放的碳又被释放回大气中——缓冲池中的信用额度可以被取消，以补偿已核实的损失。

这样做是为了弥补碳损失，维护已发行碳信用额的完整性，但无法消除灾害造成的排放。

“缓冲资金池不仅来自一个项目，而是来自世界各地数百个项目，”IETA 的 Fonden 先生说。

“因此，如果某个特定项目出现逆转，可以通过其他没有火灾或其他逆转风险的项目的结果来补充。”

然而，该系统的有效性取决于是否已预留足够的信贷额度来弥补损失。

灾难能否突破安全防护措施？

虽然缓冲池旨在应对损失，但人们越来越担心它们是否能够承受日益频繁和严重的野火。

气候变化正在增加许多森林地区发生极端火灾的风险，可能会同时对多个碳信用项目造成损害。

如果几片大森林在相对较短的时间内燃烧，释放的碳可能超过储备中可用的碳信用额度。

科学家们质疑现有的缓冲池是否足以应对此类风险，尤其是历史火灾模式可能不再能可靠地预测未来情况。

那么，由谁来决定必须预留多少学分呢？

来自碳评级公司 Sylvera 的 Ben Rattenbury 先生表示，碳信用标准通常要求项目将其已发放信用额度的一部分贡献给缓冲池，具体比例取决于项目类型及其风险。

他说：“假设某个特定项目的信用额度中有 5%（或者对于某些项目类型，这个比例可能会更高）需要存入缓冲池。”

“至于由谁来决定缓冲资金池中的信贷额度是否充足，这应由信贷标准部门负责。”

他还补充说，一些非政府组织和其他市场观察人士也会审查这些安排。

一些标准已经更新了风险计算方法，以便更好地考虑极端天气和其他威胁。

但挑战依然存在：如果火灾风险增加的速度超过了旨在应对这些风险的储备金的增长速度，该系统可能会面临资金短缺。

碳信用额度能帮助预防火灾吗？

专家表示，出售碳信用额度所获得的收入也有助于预防火灾。

这些项目产生的资金可以支持森林巡逻队、消防队和预警系统，使当局和当地社区能够在火灾蔓延之前发现并应对火灾。

在泥炭地地区，这笔资金还可以用于维持水位，防止土壤干涸。

这一点尤为重要，因为泥炭地储存着数千年来积累的大量碳。一旦泥炭地干涸或失去水分，就极易发生火灾，地下火势可能阴燃并释放大量温室气体。

然而，这些措施的有效性因项目而异，因此潜在买家在投资前评估风险非常重要。

“在（开始）一个项目之前，你需要进行尽职调查，可以通过卫星图像或历史和前瞻性数据来确定可能发生野火的地方，并可能避开这些地方，”碳移除初创公司 CarbonSynk 的联合创始人张艺雯女士说。

她还强调了与当地社区和农民合作解决导致火灾风险的做法的重要性，因为这些措施可以帮助防止人类活动破坏森林的长期保护。

尽管印尼发生火灾，但对该国碳信用额的需求仍然保持相对稳定。

总部位于新加坡的碳交易平台 Climate Impact X 的首席执行官 Oi-Yee Choo 女士表示，该公司平台上涉及印尼碳信用额的交易活动一直保持相对稳定。

她告诉亚洲新闻台：“到目前为止，我们还没有看到对交易的任何影响。（火灾）并没有特别影响我们平台上印尼信贷的销售深度，需求也没有明显变化。”

森林碳信用额可以为保护工作提供资金，并有助于保护那些可能面临森林砍伐或退化的生态系统。

但它们的价值最终取决于它们所代表的减排效果能否长期持续。

对于购买森林碳信用额的公司来说，问题不再仅仅是一个项目能否保护今天的森林，而是他们为之付费的气候效益能否经受住未来的火灾。

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