Could a midterm defeat tame Trump? Not on foreign policy, Chinese experts say

Chinese experts say a divided US Congress after Tuesday’s midterm elections may constrain President Donald Trump’s legislative agenda but is unlikely to stop him from pursuing active, potentially risky foreign policy. They expect Democrats to have a strong chance of taking the House, while the Senate outcome remains less certain and a Democratic victory may not amount to a decisive blue wave. The experts say Trump could continue using executive powers and making rapid shifts in diplomacy, trade and national security, while Trumpism may persist beyond his presidency.

Trump had signed 292 executive orders by October 22 of his second term, compared with 220 during his entire first term.

More than 140 of the orders were signed during Trump’s first 100 days back in the White House.

The midterms will decide all 435 House seats, 35 of the 100 Senate seats and 36 of the 50 state governorships.

Diao Daming said a narrow Democratic majority could be divided over policy and might have to accommodate the party’s rising democratic socialist wing.

Meng Weizhan said affordability, border policy and AI would remain among Trump’s priorities, while the gap between announced measures and their eventual delivery could widen.

Published Nov 3, 2026 10:54 am KST

Updated Nov 3, 2026 11:02 am KST

U.S. President Donald Trump takes off his hat as he departs after delivering remarks at the Lincoln Memorial Reflecting Pool in Washington, DC, Nov. 02 . AFP-Yonhap

A potential lame-duck phase may not deter US President Donald Trump from pursuing more "transactional" or "risky" foreign policy moves after the midterm elections, Chinese experts warn, while casting doubt on expectations of a powerful Democratic wave.

Amid a season of high-stakes contests that could reshape global politics, the US vote on Tuesday stands out.

The election, which will determine who takes control of the US Congress, could result in Trump and his fellow Republicans no longer holding all the levers of power over the next two years.

Multiple models and ratings project that Democrats are on track to flip the House of Representatives, although forecasts differ on what the net seat gain will be.

There have also been signs in recent months that the party's once narrow path to sweeping both chambers has widened, even though most of the Senate seats regarded as toss-ups are in traditionally red states, meaning the Democrats must win in Republican territory.

Observers in China agree that the US midterms on November 3 are likely to usher in a divided government.

They expect that such a shift could expose Trump to increased investigative oversight, raise the odds of impeachment led by House Democrats, and induce congressional gridlock for his administration's legislative, personnel and budget priorities for the rest of his second term.

"The next two years could be a lame-duck [period for Trump]," said Diao Daming, an international relations professor specialising in US politics at Renmin University in Beijing.

Still, Diao said Trump had been consistently expanding presidential power and was likely to continue his approach of bypassing Congress through a barrage of executive orders to advance policies, leading to the prospect of more legal disputes.

As of October 22, Trump had already signed 292 executive orders during the first half of his second term - outpacing the 220 signed during his entire first term - according to the American Presidency Project.

Of those, more than 140 were signed in his first 100 days back in the White House, dwarfing the total issued by any predecessor over the same time frame.

US policy towards Russia, Iran, Europe and China could swing rapidly between heavy pressuring and partial bargaining.

Although Trump might emerge from the midterm elections with less room to advance legislation, he could remain active on executive and foreign policy actions, Meng Weizhan, a social sciences researcher at Fudan University in Shanghai, wrote in a social media post late last month.

"He can still decide a lot of things," Meng wrote.

Even if lasting only a few months, a single decision on tariffs, corporate licences, sanctions enforcement, military deployments or senior official appointments could have real-world consequences, he noted.

"He still has the capacity to change policy direction, although some policies will be hard to sustain," Meng added.

Zhao Zhijiang, a research assistant at Beijing-based independent think tank Anbound, also expected Trump to retain considerable latitude in areas such as trade, tariffs, sanctions, immigration enforcement, administrative regulation, diplomacy and national security.

While Trump himself would enter the later stage of his presidency after the midterms, "Trumpism will not necessarily decline in tandem", Zhao said, adding that younger Republicans were taking up the movement's political line.

"The so-called lame duck problem is more about Trump's personal term in office. Whether Trumpism can endure over the long run is the more important variable for gauging the future shape of American politics," he said.

Republicans are heading into the midterm race with slim majorities in both the House and Senate, at a time when several polls show Trump's domestic approval ratings at record lows.

The vote on Tuesday has been widely framed as a referendum on the US president, even though the man - who has been perceived as a mercurial leader upending the post-World War II order that the US helped build - is not on the ballot.

His first presidency saw Republicans yield about 40 seats, losing their House majority in the 2018 midterms, although they expanded their Senate majority with a two-seat net gain.

What followed were two years of investigations, subpoenas and impeachment.

The global spotlight is fixed on whether the elections can galvanise Democrats to repeat such a scenario to keep Trump in check.

All 435 House seats, 35 of the 100 Senate seats and 36 of the 50 state governorships will be decided in the midterm elections.

A Democratic takeover of the House is "almost a high-probability event", said Diao, adding that the outcome in the Senate remained harder to call but the likelihood of Republicans losing their grip there was "continuing to rise".

However, he expected that winning one chamber, or even both, would not necessarily secure Democrats the power to dominate the agenda.

"Even if the Democrats come back, it may feel like a fragile, even narrow, even ineffective majority," Diao said.

If Democrats get a thin House majority, they might have to adjust some policies to accommodate the party's rising democratic socialist wing, whose views often diverge from those of the party establishment, Diao said.

Even if Democrats flipped the Senate, they would probably hold only a razor-thin majority, which would be either insufficient to end a filibuster or difficult to hold together, given that Pennsylvania's Democratic Senator John Fetterman could align with Republicans on many issues.

U.S. President Donald Trump speaks during a campaign rally at Salina Regional Airport, Salina, Kansas, Nov. 1. AFP-Yonhap

The assessment was echoed by other Chinese analysts.

"Even if Democrats controlled both chambers, they would still find it difficult to get around the presidential veto to enact a full slate of new policies on their own," Meng wrote in his note.

He noted that Republicans might narrowly hold the Senate while Democrats could take the House.

He also noted that several states' redrawing of congressional maps since last year could leave the scale of any Democratic House win in question, while some Republican candidates could outperform the polls in some tight districts due to campaign spending, voter turnout and local footprint.

Zhao from Anbound said that recent Republican efforts to shore up campaign mobilization and defenses, together with some candidates distancing themselves from Trump on specific issues, had made a Democratic landslide in earlier projections more uncertain.

He cited surveys showing that Americans lacked confidence in either party's ability to solve the country's problems. "The current situation looks more like a punishment of the Republican party in power than strong support for the Democrats," he said.

Diao also said Democrats had offered no clear solutions beyond criticising Republicans, when inflation, higher oil prices driven by the conflict in the Middle East and the fallout from the trade war with Canada had fuelled public frustration with the Trump administration.

"Even if the Democrats win both chambers, is that a so-called blue wave? You don't have a political platform ... so what would the wave be made of?" Diao said. "That's why some people say it's not a blue wave but a red undertow."

As a new balance of power looms over Washington, there has been discussion on Chinese social media over whether Trump will enter "garbage time" for the remainder of his presidency.

Experts said the characterization missed the mark. The widely used sports term refers to the closing stretch of a game when one side has such an insurmountable lead that the outcome is not in doubt and players tend to become passive. The term has recently taken on a more political hue on Chinese social media.

Zhao said Trump's final two years in office "would not be a period of policy stagnation".

He expected the US president to maintain a hard line on immigration while pressing ahead with issues such as energy production, deregulation, manufacturing investment and trade talks.

"Diplomacy may become even more transactional. US policy towards Russia, Iran, Europe and China could swing rapidly between heavy pressuring and partial bargaining," he said.

Meng also expected Trump to keep up his frenetic governing style over the next two years, although the gap between announced measures and eventual delivery could widen, adding that affordability, border policy and AI would also be among his priorities.

"Foreign policy is what is really worth watching more closely," he wrote.

He noted that Trump appeared to have fallen out with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky recently, although Meng considered that the US leader had spent the last two years trying to maintain an "equal" distance from both Moscow and Kyiv.

"The split in US-Europe ties is likely to deepen," he wrote. "This is something that may not be influenced by Congress."

Meng added there was a "high degree of unpredictability" over Iran and Cuba.

Diao expected Trump to become more "legacy-driven" in foreign affairs and seek to do more in this field.

"On the other hand, in areas he believes he can control or achieve results quickly, he may also take some risky actions," he said.

Read the article at SCMP.

中国专家表示，周二的中期选举后，美国国会分裂的局面可能会限制特朗普总统的立法议程，但不太可能阻止他推行积极且可能存在风险的外交政策。他们预计民主党很有可能赢得众议院，而参议院的归属仍不明朗，即使民主党获胜，也未必会形成压倒性的“蓝色浪潮”。专家指出，特朗普可能会继续动用行政权力，并在外交、贸易和国家安全领域迅速调整政策，而“特朗普主义”的影响力也可能延续到他卸任之后。

截至特朗普第二个任期的10月22日，他已签署了292项行政命令，而他整个第一个任期内只签署了220项。

其中超过 140 项行政命令是在特朗普重返白宫的头 100 天里签署的。

中期选举将决定众议院全部 435 个席位、参议院 100 个席位中的 35 个以及 50 个州长职位中的 36 个。

刁大明表示，民主党的微弱多数可能会在政策上产生分歧，并且可能不得不迁就党内日益壮大的民主社会主义派。

孟伟战表示，经济承受能力、边境政策和人工智能仍将是特朗普的优先事项，但已宣布的措施与最终落实之间的差距可能会扩大。

发布于2026年11月3日上午10:54（韩国标准时间）

更新于2026年11月3日上午11:02（韩国标准时间）

11月2日，美国总统唐纳德·特朗普在华盛顿特区林肯纪念堂倒影池发表讲话后脱帽离开。法新社-韩联社

中国专家警告称，即使进入跛脚鸭时期，美国总统唐纳德·特朗普在中期选举后也可能不会停止推行更多“交易性”或“冒险性”的外交政策举措，同时他们对民主党可能掀起的强大浪潮表示怀疑。

在可能重塑全球政治格局的高风险选举季中，周二的美国大选尤为引人注目。

这次选举将决定谁控制美国国会，其结果可能导致特朗普及其共和党同僚在未来两年内不再掌握所有权力。

多项模型和评级预测民主党有望翻转众议院，尽管对于净增席位数量，各方预测不一。

近几个月来也有迹象表明，该党曾经狭窄的横扫参众两院的道路已经拓宽，尽管大多数被认为是摇摆不定的参议院席位都位于传统的红色州，这意味着民主党人必须在共和党的地盘上获胜。

中国观察人士一致认为，11月3日举行的美国中期选举很可能导致美国出现分裂的政府。

他们预计，这种转变可能会使特朗普面临更严格的调查监督，增加众议院民主党人发起弹劾的可能性，并导致国会在其第二个任期剩余时间内对其政府的立法、人事和预算优先事项造成僵局。

“未来两年可能是特朗普的跛脚鸭时期，”北京人民大学专门研究美国政治的国际关系教授刁大明说。

不过，刁表示，特朗普一直在不断扩大总统权力，并且很可能会继续通过一系列行政命令绕过国会来推进政策，这可能会导致更多的法律纠纷。

据美国总统项目统计，截至 10 月 22 日，特朗普在其第二个任期的前半段已经签署了 292 项行政命令，超过了他整个第一个任期内签署的 220 项。

其中，在他重返白宫的头 100 天里签署了 140 多份文件，远远超过了任何一位前任在同一时期签署的文件总数。

美国对俄罗斯、伊朗、欧洲和中国的政策可能会在强力施压和部分谈判之间迅速摇摆。

尽管特朗普在中期选举后推进立法的空间可能会缩小，但他仍可能在行政和外交政策方面保持活跃。上海复旦大学社会科学研究员孟伟展上个月底在社交媒体上发帖写道。

“他仍然可以决定很多事情，”孟写道。

他指出，即使只是持续几个月，一项关于关税、企业许可证、制裁执行、军事部署或高级官员任命的决定也可能产生现实世界的后果。

孟补充说：“他仍然有能力改变政策方向，尽管有些政策难以持续。”

北京独立智库安邦研究所的研究助理赵志江也预计，特朗普将在贸易、关税、制裁、移民执法、行政法规、外交和国家安全等领域保留相当大的自主权。

赵立坚表示，虽然特朗普本人将在中期选举后进入总统任期的后期阶段，“但特朗普主义不一定会随之衰落”，他还补充说，年轻的共和党人正在接受这一运动的政治路线。

他说：“所谓的跛脚鸭问题更多地关乎特朗普的个人任期。特朗普主义能否长期持续下去，才是衡量美国政治未来走向的更重要因素。”

共和党在众议院和参议院都仅占微弱多数，即将迎来中期选举。与此同时，多项民调显示，特朗普在国内的支持率正处于历史低位。

周二的投票被广泛视为对美国总统的一次全民公投，尽管这位被认为反复无常、颠覆了美国帮助建立的二战后秩序的领导人并没有出现在选票上。

在他第一个总统任期内，共和党失去了大约 40 个席位，在 2018 年中期选举中失去了众议院多数席位，尽管他们在参议院的多数席位增加了两个。

接下来是长达两年的调查、传唤和弹劾。

全球的目光都集中在这次选举能否激励民主党人再次上演类似戏码，以制衡特朗普。

中期选举将决定众议院全部 435 个席位、参议院 100 个席位中的 35 个以及 50 个州长职位中的 36 个。

刁表示，民主党接管众议院“几乎是极有可能发生的事件”，他还补充说，参议院的结果仍然难以预测，但共和党失去对参议院控制权的可能性“正在持续上升”。

然而，他预计赢得参众两院中的一院，甚至两院，并不一定能确保民主党人掌握主导议程的权力。

“即使民主党人重新掌权，他们的多数席位也可能显得脆弱、微弱，甚至无效，”刁说。

刁表示，如果民主党在众议院获得微弱多数席位，他们可能不得不调整一些政策，以适应党内日益壮大的民主社会主义派，该派的观点往往与党内建制派的观点相悖。

即使民主党人赢得了参议院的控制权，他们可能也只能获得微弱的多数席位，这要么不足以结束冗长辩论，要么难以维持，因为宾夕法尼亚州的民主党参议员约翰·费特曼在许多问题上可能与共和党人结盟。

美国总统唐纳德·特朗普于11月1日在堪萨斯州萨利纳市萨利纳地区机场举行的竞选集会上发表讲话。（法新社-韩联社）

其他中国分析人士也表达了类似的观点。

孟在信中写道：“即使民主党控制了参众两院，他们仍然很难绕过总统否决权，自行推行一整套新政策。”

他指出，共和党人可能以微弱优势保住参议院，而民主党人则可能拿下众议院。

他还指出，自去年以来，几个州重新划分了国会选区，这可能会使民主党在众议院的胜利规模变得不确定，而一些共和党候选人由于竞选支出、选民投票率和当地影响力，可能会在一些竞争激烈的选区中表现超出民调预期。

来自安邦的赵表示，共和党近期加强竞选动员和防御的努力，以及一些候选人在特定问题上与特朗普保持距离，使得此前预测的民主党大获全胜变得更加不确定。

他援引民调显示，美国民众对两党解决国家问题的能力都缺乏信心。“目前的形势看起来更像是对执政的共和党的惩罚，而不是对民主党的强力支持，”他说。

刁还表示，民主党人除了批评共和党人之外，没有提出任何明确的解决方案。与此同时，通货膨胀、中东冲突导致的油价上涨以及与加拿大贸易战的后果，都加剧了公众对特朗普政府的不满。

“即便民主党赢得了参众两院，那也能算是所谓的蓝色浪潮吗？你们没有统一的政治纲领……那这浪潮又由什么构成呢？”刁说，“所以有些人说这不是蓝色浪潮，而是红色暗流。”

随着华盛顿即将迎来新的权力平衡，中国社交媒体上开始讨论特朗普在其总统任期剩余时间里是否会进入“垃圾时间”。

专家表示，这种描述并不准确。这个广泛用于体育领域的术语指的是比赛最后阶段，一方领先优势巨大，胜负已定，球员们往往会变得消极被动。最近，这个词在中国社交媒体上被赋予了更多政治色彩。

赵立坚表示，特朗普执政的最后两年“不会是政策停滞的时期”。

他预计美国总统将在移民问题上保持强硬立场，同时推进能源生产、放松管制、制造业投资和贸易谈判等问题。

他说：“外交可能会变得更加功利化。美国对俄罗斯、伊朗、欧洲和中国的政策可能会在强力施压和部分讨价还价之间迅速摇摆。”

孟晚舟还预计，特朗普在未来两年将继续保持其快节奏的执政风格，尽管宣布的措施与最终落实之间的差距可能会扩大，并补充说，可负担性、边境政策和人工智能也将是他的优先事项之一。

他写道：“外交政策才是真正值得密切关注的。”

他指出，特朗普最近似乎与乌克兰总统泽连斯基闹翻了，尽管孟认为，这位美国领导人在过去两年里一直试图与莫斯科和基辅保持“平等”的距离。

他写道：“美欧关系的裂痕可能会加深。这种情况可能不会受到国会的影响。”

孟补充说，伊朗和古巴局势存在“高度不确定性”。

刁预计特朗普在外交事务上会更加注重“历史遗产”，并寻求在该领域做出更多贡献。

“另一方面，在他认为可以控制或快速取得成果的领域，他也可能会采取一些冒险的行动，”他说。

请阅读《南华早报》上的文章。