Israel political deadlock leaves Netanyahu’s future hanging in the balance

With neither bloc near a majority, Arab and ultra-Orthodox parties hold the key to Israel’s next government.

Protesters hold portraits of Benjamin Netanyahu during a demonstration in support of the Israeli prime minister at Habima Square in Tel Aviv on October 31, 2026, following Israel's general election [Jack Guez/AFP]

Israel’s election results are due to be certified on Wednesday, but with both leading blocs falling short of a parliamentary majority, negotiations remain deadlocked.

As things stand, the right-wing coalition of Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu secured 53 seats in the October 27 vote, while the self-styled Zionist opposition alliance led by former army chief Gadi Eisenkot had 48. A majority requires 61 seats in the 120-strong Knesset. The 19 remaining seats went to the two Arab-led lists – the Joint List and Ra’am, or the United Arab List.

list 1 of 4 Israel election: When will government be formed, who will lead it?

list 2 of 4 Israeli officials say results stand as Netanyahu claims election ‘stolen’

list 3 of 4 The future of the Palestinian vote in Israel

list 4 of 4 Arab parties back Eisenkot: What’s the latest in Israel’s coalition talks?

Netanyahu’s camp has been accused of seeking to delegitimise the results after launching a series of largely discounted claims that the vote for the Arab parties, which scored their best-ever electoral performance, had been manipulated by foreign interference.

Despite their historic showing that was boosted by an unprecedented surge in voter turnout, the two Arab-led lists remain politically isolated. And while there have been indications that they would be prepared to support, or at least not oppose, an Eisenkot-led government, their backing remains contentious within the opposition – a broad and increasingly fractious alliance that also includes parties led by former Prime Ministers Naftali Bennett and Yair Lapid, left-winger Yair Golan and right-winger Avigdor Lieberman.

Former military chief Gadi Eisenkot, leader of the Yashar party, waves an Israeli flag following the exit polls at his party headquarters [Shir Torem/Reuters]

After a meeting on Tuesday, the main opposition leaders issued a statement announcing that they were preparing to “act immediately” to replace Netanyahu’s governing coalition “with a national emergency government and translate the clear parliamentary majority in the Knesset into action”. Yet, the statement did not specify how they would reach the majority that would ultimately depend on them allying with either the Arab-led lists or two ultra-Orthodox parties, which have historically supported Netanyahu in return for shielding some of their members from military service.

“Essentially, we’re both on track to a government, and nowhere near being able to form one,” Israeli pollster Mitchell Barak told Al Jazeera.

‘Not clear who’s talking to who’

Though informal negotiations are widely reported to have begun, official talks on establishing a governing coalition will start only after the results are certified on Wednesday. Netanyahu’s Likud party has already mooted refusing to recognise the results, citing its continuing claims of irregularities in the Arab vote. Those allegations have been investigated and discounted by police, while a separate probe by the internal security service, the Shin Bet, remains ongoing.

Once the results are certified, President Isaac Herzog will begin consultations with all the parties to determine which member of the Knesset, not necessarily a party leader, is best placed to form a government.

Herzog, who lost to Netanyahu after an especially bitter contest in 2015, has found himself in the unusual position of having to decide who should be given the first opportunity to form a government, while simultaneously considering the prime minister’s longstanding request for a pardon in his ongoing corruption trial .

One of Herzog’s options is to ask the Arab parties to recommend Eisenkot. If selected, the leader of the centrist Yashar party will initially have 28 days to assemble a coalition, a period that can be extended by 14 days. Should he fail, Herzog can then invite another candidate to try.

For his part, Netanyahu on Monday argued that Likud’s first-place finish, with 27 seats, gave him a mandate to lead the next government. “We aim to form a broad government with our partners and with any other party that wishes to join, provided they do not support terrorism,” he said.

Still, it is unlikely he will be able to command a majority without entering an alliance with the Arab parties that he has consistently vilified, or a large-scale wave of defections from the opposition.

Whatever the state of the negotiations, the new Knesset is due to be sworn in on November 10.

Barak said coordination within the opposition appeared minimal, while personal animosities between Netanyahu and Herzog further complicated already fraught negotiations.

“It’s really not clear who’s talking to who,” he added.

“Earlier this week, they named [Bennett’s running mate] Lapid as their choice of speaker, which was apparently news to both Eisenkot and Bennett. Equally, Netanyahu now has to appeal to his political rival, Herzog, both to be given the responsibility of forming a government and to be pardoned before any conviction,” Barak continued.

“All the while, he’s claiming that the Arab parties cannot be considered legitimate partners in government, which makes it almost impossible for anyone to form a coalition with them.”

However, the extent to which the efforts to delegitimise the Arab parties may succeed remains uncertain. Ra’am served as a central plank of the Bennett-Lapid coalition in 2021–22, the first time an independent Arab party had formally joined an Israeli government, with public pressure to do so again growing.

A protester holds a placard during a demonstration near the prime minister’s residence in Jerusalem, calling for the formation of a Jewish-Arab coalition government on October 31 [AFP ]

Over the weekend , thousands rallied in Tel Aviv calling upon Eisenkot to make a deal with the Arab parties that reflected the overwhelming number of votes cast against Netanyahu’s governing coalition. However, following the meeting between the opposition leaders on Tuesday, sources within the Joint List told Al Jazeera they were not expecting to be invited to support the bloc anytime soon.

Instead, speculation has turned to the possibility of one of the two ultra-Orthodox parties – Shas and United Torah Judaism (UTJ), and particularly the latter – defecting to the opposition and backing Eisenkot.

Neither Shas nor UTJ have had straightforward relationships with Netanyahu’s governing coalition. In fact, it was the withdrawal of their parliamentary support in May, following what they saw as the coalition’s failure to pass a draft law exempting some of their ultra-Orthodox members from military service, that fundamentally weakened its majority in parliament.

“There are rumours that the Ashkenazi [Jews, who make up the bulk of the UTJ membership] are ready to break with Netanyahu and go to Eisenkot,” political analyst Nimrod Flaschenberg told Al Jazeera.

“I am sceptical, but even that would still leave them short of an overall majority, so they would still need support from one of the Arab parties, even if that is Ra’am supporting them from outside a formal coalition,” he said of the parliamentary arithmetic.

Hanging over all, however, are developments tied to Israel’s deep and longstanding alliance with the United States.

Barak said the entire government-formation process risked being disrupted by the results of Tuesday’s midterm elections in the US, which could weaken Israel’s foremost ally, President Donald Trump, or be overtaken entirely by renewed war with Iran.

Netanyahu, particularly, went to pains during the election campaign to stress his relationship with Trump, whose Republican Party faces a tough race to keep hold of Congress.

Equally, both Trump’s rhetoric as well as the renewed build-up of US forces in the region may all signal the beginning of renewed conflict with Israel’s regional nemesis, Iran.

“Netanyahu cannot form a coalition,” Yossi Mekelberg, a senior fellow at Chatham House, told Al Jazeera. “It’s a numbers game, and he just doesn’t have the numbers – no amount of talking and planning can change that, but an emergency could, and in Israel, there’s no more popular an emergency than one involving Iran.”

In such an instance, he speculated that the incumbent could ask the opposition to fall in behind him, but that would raise the possibility of a former captain dictating war policy to former generals.

“There’s also the possibility that, however you want to define it, Israel has a successful war against Iran. That leads to a surge in popularity for Netanyahu when negotiations on a coalition resume, or [him] calling unnecessary, fresh elections,” said Mekelberg.

由于阿拉伯政党和极端正统派政党都未能获得多数席位，因此它们掌握着以色列下一届政府的关键。

2026年10月31日，以色列大选后，在特拉维夫哈比玛广场，抗议者手持本杰明·内塔尼亚胡的画像，举行示威活动支持以色列总理。[杰克·格兹/法新社]

以色列的选举结果将于周三得到认证，但由于两大主要阵营均未能获得议会多数席位，谈判仍陷入僵局。

截至目前，总理本雅明·内塔尼亚胡领导的右翼联盟在10月27日的选举中赢得了53个席位，而由前陆军总司令加迪·艾森科特领导的自称“犹太复国主义”的反对​​派联盟则获得了48个席位。在拥有120个席位的以色列议会中，多数党需要61个席位。剩余的19个席位则由两个阿拉伯人主导的名单——联合名单和阿拉伯联合名单（Ra'am）获得。

以色列选举相关问题（共 4 个问题，第 1 个）：政府何时组建？谁将领导政府？

以色列官员称选举结果有效，内塔尼亚胡则声称选举“被窃取”。

列表 3/4：巴勒斯坦人在以色列的投票权未来

4个阿拉伯政党全部支持艾森科特：以色列组阁谈判的最新进展如何？

内塔尼亚胡阵营被指控试图使选举结果失去合法性，此前他们提出了一系列大多未被采纳的说法，称阿拉伯政党的选票受到了外国干预的操纵，而这些政党在选举中取得了有史以来最好的成绩。

尽管得益于前所未有的高投票率，这两个阿拉伯人主导的政党联盟取得了历史性的胜利，但它们在政治上仍然孤立无援。虽然有迹象表明它们准备支持，或者至少不反对艾森科特领导的政府，但它们在反对派内部的支持仍然存在争议——反对派是一个范围广泛且日益分裂的联盟，成员还包括前总理纳夫塔利·贝内特和亚伊尔·拉皮德领导的政党、左翼人士亚伊尔·戈兰以及右翼人士阿维格多·利伯曼领导的政党。

以色列前军事首长、亚沙尔党领袖加迪·艾森科特在出口民调结果公布后，在其党总部挥舞以色列国旗。[Shir Torem/路透社]

周二会议结束后，主要反对派领导人发表声明，宣布他们正准备“立即采取行动”，以“国家紧急政府”取代内塔尼亚胡的执政联盟，“并将议会中的明显多数转化为实际行动”。然而，声明并未具体说明他们将如何获得多数席位，而这最终取决于他们是否与阿拉伯人主导的政党联盟或两个极端正统派政党结盟。历史上，这两个极端正统派政党一直支持内塔尼亚胡，以换取内塔尼亚胡为其部分成员免除兵役。

“从本质上讲，我们都在朝着组建政府的方向发展，但离真正组建政府还差得很远，”以色列民调专家米切尔·巴拉克告诉半岛电视台。

“不清楚是谁在和谁说话”

尽管有报道称非正式谈判已经开始，但关于组建执政联盟的正式会谈要等到周三选举结果正式认证后才会启动。内塔尼亚胡领导的利库德集团已经表示将拒绝承认选举结果，理由是他们一直声称阿拉伯选民的投票存在违规行为。警方已经对这些指控进行了调查并予以驳斥，而以色列国内安全局（辛贝特）的另一项调查仍在进行中。

一旦选举结果得到认证，总统伊萨克·赫尔佐格将开始与各方进行磋商，以确定哪位议员（不一定是政党领袖）最适合组建政府。

赫尔佐格在 2015 年一场异常激烈的选举中败给了内塔尼亚胡，如今他发现自己处在一个不同寻常的境地：他必须决定谁应该获得组建政府的首要机会，同时还要考虑总理长期以来对其正在进行的腐败审判提出的赦免请求。

赫尔佐格的选项之一是请阿拉伯政党推荐艾森科特。如果艾森科特被选中，这位中间派政党亚沙尔党的领导人最初有28天的时间组建联合政府，这一期限可以延长14天。如果他组建失败，赫尔佐格可以邀请另一位候选人尝试。

内塔尼亚胡周一辩称，利库德集团以27个席位位居榜首，这赋予了他领导下一届政府的授权。他说：“我们的目标是与我们的合作伙伴以及任何其他希望加入的政党组建一个广泛的政府，前提是他们不支持恐怖主义。”

不过，如果不与他一直诋毁的阿拉伯政党结盟，或者反对派出现大规模倒戈潮，他不太可能获得多数支持。

无论谈判进展如何，新一届以色列议会将于11月10日宣誓就职。

巴拉克表示，反对派内部的协调似乎微乎其微，而内塔尼亚胡和赫尔佐格之间的个人恩怨进一步加剧了本已紧张的谈判的复杂性。

“真的不清楚是谁在和谁说话，”他补充道。

巴拉克继续说道：“本周早些时候，他们提名拉皮德（贝内特的竞选搭档）担任议长，这显然让艾森科特和贝内特都感到意外。同样，内塔尼亚胡现在不得不向他的政治对手赫尔佐格求助，既希望他能承担组建政府的重任，也希望他能在被定罪前获得赦免。”

“与此同时，他却声称阿拉伯政党不能被视为合法的执政伙伴，这使得任何人几乎不可能与他们组成联合政府。”

然而，旨在使阿拉伯政党失去合法性的努力究竟能在多大程度上取得成功，目前仍不明朗。拉姆党是2021-2022年贝内特-拉皮德联合政府的核心组成部分，这是首个正式加入以色列政府的独立阿拉伯政党，而公众要求其再次加入的呼声也日益高涨。

10月31日，一名抗议者在耶路撒冷总理官邸附近举行示威活动，举着标语牌，呼吁组建犹太-阿拉伯联合政府。[法新社]

周末期间，数千人在特拉维夫集会，呼吁艾森科特与阿拉伯政党达成协议，以反映绝大多数选民反对内塔尼亚胡执政联盟的投票结果。然而，在周二反对派领导人会晤后，联合名单内部消息人士告诉半岛电视台，他们预计近期内不会被邀请支持该联盟。

相反，人们开始猜测两个极端正统派政党之一——沙斯党和联合托拉犹太教党（UTJ），尤其是后者——可能会倒戈成为反对派，并支持艾森科特。

沙斯党和联合托拉犹太教党与内塔尼亚胡的执政联盟关系一直并不融洽。事实上，正是由于他们认为执政联盟未能通过一项旨在豁免部分极端正统派成员兵役的法律草案，导致两党在5月份撤回了对执政联盟的议会支持，才从根本上削弱了执政联盟在议会的多数席位。

政治分析家尼姆罗德·弗拉申贝格告诉半岛电视台：“有传言说，阿什肯纳兹犹太人（UTJ成员的主体）准备与内塔尼亚胡决裂，转而支持艾森科特。”

“我对此表示怀疑，但即便如此，他们仍然无法获得绝对多数席位，所以他们仍然需要某个阿拉伯政党的支持，即使是拉姆党在正式联盟之外支持他们，”他谈到议会席位分配时说道。

然而，笼罩所有这一切的，是与以色列和美国之间根深蒂固的长期联盟相关的事态发展。

巴拉克表示，整个组阁进程有可能受到周二美国中期选举结果的干扰，这可能会削弱以色列最重要的盟友唐纳德·特朗普总统的地位，或者导致以色列与伊朗再次爆发战争，从而完全被战争所吞噬。

内塔尼亚胡在竞选期间尤其不遗余力地强调他与特朗普的关系，而特朗普领导的共和党正面临着保住国会控制权的艰难挑战。

同样，特朗普的言论以及美国在该地区重新集结兵力，都可能预示着与以色列的地区宿敌伊朗之间新的冲突即将开始。

“内塔尼亚胡不可能组建联合政府，”查塔姆研究所高级研究员约西·梅克尔伯格告诉半岛电视台。“这是一场数字游戏，而他根本没有足够的票数——再多的谈判和计划也改变不了这一点，但紧急情况或许可以，而在以色列，没有什么紧急情况比涉及伊朗的紧急情况更受民众欢迎了。”

在这种情况下，他推测现任总统可能会要求反对派支持他，但这可能会导致一位前上尉向前将军们发号施令，制定战争政策。

“还有一种可能性，无论你怎么定义，以色列都取得了对伊朗的战争胜利。这会导致内塔尼亚胡的支持率飙升，届时组建联合政府的谈判将重新启动，或者他会因此举行不必要的重新选举，”梅克尔伯格说。