Early CNN Voter Poll results find an electorate deeply unhappy with Trump and the economy

Voters are broadly unhappy with the state of the nation, the condition of the economy and President Donald Trump’s job performance, according to the preliminary national results of CNN’s Voter Poll.

Roughly three-quarters of voters nationally say they feel dissatisfied or worse with the way things are going in the country, with around 4 in 10 describing themselves as angry.

There are two factors driving that unhappiness, the early results suggest: negative views of Trump and dissatisfaction with current economic conditions. How precisely those dynamics play out remains to be seen — particularly in some of the deeply Republican states that have become home to unexpectedly competitive Senate races.

Roughly 6 in 10 voters nationally disapprove of Trump’s job performance, with about half saying they disapprove strongly. About one-fifth of voters who backed Trump in 2024 now disapprove of his performance.

The share of voters who say inflation has caused them hardship is similar to where it stood in 2024. But this time, many voters lay the blame directly on Trump. Around two-thirds say they feel he has worsened economic conditions in the country, with most attributing higher costs directly to his policies, rather than factors outside of his control.

Most voters doubt that Trump has the right priorities and say he puts his own interests above those of the country. And despite the president’s exhortations to his base to vote as though he were on the ballot, less than a fifth of voters say their House vote was cast in support of Trump, with the rest saying either that they were voting in opposition to Trump or that he was not a factor in their decision.

Around three-quarters of voters call economic conditions bad, and roughly 9 in 10 say the cost of living was “crucial” or a major factor in their vote choice.

Asked to choose the most important issue facing the country, voters are most likely to say it’s the economy, followed by the state of democracy — a broad issue that often encompasses Democratic opposition to Trump. Relatively few call immigration, healthcare, foreign policy or crime their top concern.

The CNN Voter Poll, a successor to previous years’ exit polls, combines traditional in-person interviews at polling places on Election Day with tens of thousands of interviews conducted nationwide in the weeks before the election. That scope makes the polls a powerful tool for understanding the demographic profile and political views of voters in this year’s election. And their findings will eventually be weighted against the ultimate benchmark: the results of the elections themselves.

Even so, exit polls are still polls, with margins for error — which means they’re most useful when treated as estimates , rather than precise measurements. That’s particularly true for the earliest numbers, which haven’t yet been adjusted to match final election results. Learn more about how this year’s surveys were conducted here .

Many of the early Voter Poll findings align with political dynamics seen through the midterm campaign. Voters’ unhappiness with the first two years of this Trump White House go beyond economic discontent, with most saying his administration has gone too far on immigration enforcement and that the US made the wrong decision in taking military action against Iran.

Voters’ unhappy views of Washington don’t stop with the executive branch. Views of Congress and the Supreme Court are also negative, and opinions of both political parties are underwater, the GOP more deeply so than the Democrats. In the initial results, Democrats hold a slight edge over the Republicans on trust to handle the economy — a striking number, given their disadvantage on this issue in past cycles — with roughly one-fifth saying they don’t trust either party.

And voters also express pessimism about the US more broadly, with most expecting life for the next generation to be worse than life today, and only about one-third saying the economic system is fair to most Americans.

METHODOLOGY |The CNN Voter Poll conducted by SSRS was conducted from October 19-November 3, and is expected to include a representative sample of approximately 100,000 voters nationwide. The Voter Poll combines data collected from verified registered voters online and by telephone, with data collected in-person at polling locations in 15 states. Data collected before Election Day includes both pre-election and Election Day voters and has been weighted by voters’ probability of turning out. Recontact interviews were conducted among people who could not be verified as having voted prior to Election Day to confirm their choices and turnout. Respondents could complete the poll in English or Spanish. Results for the full national sample have a margin of error of plus or minus 0.6 percentage points; it is larger for subgroups and in individual states.

根据 CNN 选民民意调查的初步全国结果显示，选民普遍对国家现状、经济状况和唐纳德·特朗普总统的工作表现感到不满。

全国约有四分之三的选民表示，他们对国家现状感到不满或更糟，其中约有十分之四的人表示愤怒。

初步结果显示，造成这种不满情绪的因素有两个：对特朗普的负面看法以及对当前经济状况的不满。这些因素最终将如何演变，还有待观察——尤其是在一些共和党传统票仓州，这些州的参议院选举出人意料地竞争激烈。

全国范围内，大约十分之六的选民不认可特朗普的执政表现，其中约一半表示强烈不认可。在2024年支持特朗普的选民中，约有五分之一现在不认可他的表现。

认为通货膨胀给他们带来经济困难的选民比例与2024年相近。但这一次，许多选民将矛头直接指向特朗普。约三分之二的选民表示，他们认为特朗普加剧了美国的经济困境，其中大多数人将物价上涨直接归咎于他的政策，而非他无法控制的因素。

大多数选民怀疑特朗普的优先事项是否正确，认为他将个人利益置于国家利益之上。尽管总统呼吁其支持者像对待自己一样投票，但只有不到五分之一的选民表示他们在众议院选举中投票支持特朗普，其余选民则表示他们要么投票反对特朗普，要么表示特朗普并非他们投票决定的考虑因素。

约四分之三的选民认为经济状况糟糕，约十分之九的选民表示生活成本是“至关重要的”或影响他们投票选择的主要因素。

当被问及国家面临的最重要问题时，选民最有可能选择经济，其次是民主状况——这是一个涵盖范围很广的问题，通常也包括民主党对特朗普的反对。相对而言，很少有人将移民、医疗保健、外交政策或犯罪列为他们最关心的问题。

CNN选民民调是往年出口民调的延续，它结合了选举日当天在投票站进行的传统现场采访，以及选举前几周在全国范围内开展的数万次访谈。如此广泛的覆盖面使得该民调成为了解今年选民人口结构和政治观点的有力工具。而其调查结果最终将与最终的衡量标准——选举结果本身——进行比对。

即便如此，出口民调毕竟是民调，存在误差范围——这意味着它们最有用的用途是作为估计值，而不是精确测量值。对于尚未根据最终选举结果进行调整的早期数据而言，这一点尤其如此。点击此处了解更多关于今年调查如何进行的信息。

许多早期选民民调结果与中期选举的政治动态相吻合。选民对特朗普执政头两年的不满不仅仅体现在经济方面，大多数选民认为他的政府在移民执法方面做得太过火，而且美国对伊朗采取军事行动的决定也是错误的。

选民对华盛顿的不满不仅限于行政部门。他们对国会和最高法院的看法也同样负面，两党的支持率都处于低位，共和党的低迷程度甚至比民主党更甚。初步结果显示，在经济信任度方面，民主党略微领先于共和党——考虑到他们在以往选举周期中在这方面的劣势，这一结果令人惊讶——约有五分之一的选民表示他们不信任任何一方。

选民们对美国的整体状况也表达了悲观情绪，大多数人预计下一代的生活会比现在更糟，只有大约三分之一的人认为当前的经济体系对大多数美国人是公平的。

方法论 | CNN委托SSRS进行的选民民意调查于10月19日至11月3日进行，预计样本量约为10万，具有全国代表性。该民意调查结合了通过网络和电话收集的已核实注册选民数据，以及在15个州的投票站现场收集的数据。选举日前收集的数据包括选前投票和选举日当天投票的选民，并根据选民的投票概率进行了加权。对于无法核实是否在选举日前投票的选民，进行了回访访谈，以确认他们的选择和投票情况。受访者可以用英语或西班牙语完成调查。全国样本的误差幅度为正负0.6个百分点；子群体和各州的误差幅度更大。