A border district in Texas is flashing warning signs for Republicans in the midterms

Daisy Alcazar is a one-issue voter this midterm year: stopping Donald Trump.

“I don’t think we are going to survive if we don’t speak up this election,” Alcazar said. “We are on fire. We are being burned down to the floor. Our businesses. Our economy.”

Alcazar and her husband own La Pale, a traditional Mexican ice cream and fruit bar shop. They have a storefront in Brownsville and sell through a local grocery chain. “Our life savings are on the line,” she said.

Walk-in sales are down 50%. First, it was inflation’s toll on working families.

“The splurge money,” she said. “We are a luxury item right now.”

Then, the fear factor. Alcazar was one of several small-business owners who told CNN many Hispanic families are afraid to go out for ice cream, or burgers or coffee — especially if the business is Latino-owned — due to fears of being detained by US Immigration and Customs Enforcement.

“We are a target now,” Alcazar said. “And it doesn’t matter if you are documented or undocumented, legal or illegal. … People are afraid to use public transportation because ICE enforcement is literally walking up and down the streets. We cannot normalize this.”

We visited Alcazar and South Texas as part of our “ All Over the Map ” project, an effort to track elections and major issue debates through the eyes of experiences of everyday Americans. That there is good reason to visit speaks volumes about President Donald Trump’s midterm political troubles. Alcazar lives in the 34th Congressional District, which was among the big targets when, at Trump’s request, Texas Republicans drew new US House maps for the 2026 midterms.

The 34th is one of just 13 districts nationwide that Trump carried in 2024 at the same time voters elected a Democrat to the House. Trump won the 34th by a little more than 4 points in 2024, while Democratic Rep. Vicente Gonzalez won by less than 3 points. Had the new lines been in place then, Trump would have won by 10 points.

Yet what Texas Republicans thought would be a safe new GOP district — and a 2026 pickup — is a tossup. If Republicans can’t win in a Texas district they drew to their advantage, it’s a safe bet the Democrats will win the House and change the trajectory of the Trump presidency.

Four of the five Democratic-held seats targeted by Texas Republicans are majority Latino under the new maps. But Trump’s standing among Latinos has fallen dramatically nationwide since the start of his second term, outpacing his drop in approval overall.

Louis Sorola knows a lot of Latinos who voted for Trump. He predicts a 2026 backlash.

“Because things have changed in the last year,” said Sorola, a Brownsville attorney who cast his first vote more than 40 years ago for Ronald Reagan but has mostly supported Democrats in recent elections. “We didn’t have the economy in the shape that it is. We didn’t have ICE acting like a Gestapo police force. We didn’t have the tariffs hurting us. We didn’t have a lot of things. We didn’t have the Epstein files in front of us.”

Brownsville is home to the southernmost crossing at the US-Mexico border. Illegal crossings are way down — a promise kept that could be a great political asset for the president and his party in the midterms, particularly in a region with thousands of immigration and border agents and their families. But the immigration issue is instead, at the moment anyway, a clear liability.

“There is a whole argument to make about border security,” said Milton Reyna, a three-time Trump voter who owns a blue-collar bar in Corpus Christi. But Reyna added this: “Being Hispanic, I think that there does need to be some empathy.”

Corpus Christi is the big change on the new map.

The current 34th includes parts of Hidalgo County along the border. But the 2026 map shifts Hidalgo to a neighboring district and adds a big chunk of Nueces County — the Corpus Christi area.

As a result, the new 34th has about 63,000 fewer voting-age Hispanic residents, and Nueces leans more Republican than Hidalgo.

“A lot of our customers tend to be, tend to lean further right,” Reyna said. “So, when Trump was elected, we got a surge.”

Reyna plans to vote Republican in November but said he would skip the March 3 primaries.

“I think everybody’s a bit exhausted talking about politics,” Reyna said. “I tend to turn the TV off a little bit more than I used to.”

A handful of Reyna’s friends and co-workers were on hand for our interview. A quick chat with them around the bar was telling.

Four of the five were Hispanic. Four voted for Trump.

“I feel like he’s creating a lot of chaos,” said Ramon Herrera, the lone Kamala Harris voter in the group. “It’s a little bit too extreme.”

All four of the Trump voters said the president was mostly doing a good job.

“What he ran on, he’s addressed,” said Mike Martinez, a Reyna business partner. “He’s been working on it.”

Three of the four, though, voiced at least some reservations about how he gets things done.

“Probably 80% positive to 20% negative,” said Westly Belcher, who owns a few local small businesses.

Richard Contreras said Trump should assert “better control” over ICE.

“Go after the true criminals,” he said. “Leave the abuelos and abuelitas alone.”

None of the five voiced interest in the March primary and no one raised their hand when asked whether Trump’s endorsement might influence their thinking about the primary.

“He’s lost a little juice just because of the methods, the way he is doing it,” said Contreras, a Corpus Christi real estate agent.

Two of the Trump voters were open to voting for a Democrat in November.

Contreras said divided government might force some compromise in Washington. “Something to think about,” he said. But Contreras also said he had a favorable early impression of GOP candidate Eric Flores — a fellow veteran.

Celeste Montemayor, the bar manager, sounded most open.

“I do think some things need to change,” Montemayor said. “I just think what we are doing may not be working.”

Trump’s 2024 victory over Harris came with increased Latino support. He won 55% of the Texas Hispanic vote in 2024, up from 41% in 2020 and 37% in 2016.

Rural Kingsville was a Trump stronghold. It’s among the places to watch as the midterm year plays out.

Steve Martinez is associate pastor at Kingsway Family Church, where the congregation is 80% Hispanic. Martinez says he tries to avoid names and political parties when asked for voting advice.

“I always say biblically what I stand for,” Martinez said. “Congress is a big thing right now. I ask a question: What are your views on homosexuality? What are your views on abortion? You know, that is what is important to me.”

Martinez acknowledged that after Sunday services of late, there are questions about how to square immigration enforcement tactics with Christian values.

“It is hard, yes, to see some of these families separated and to see all that is going on,” Martnez said. “But at the same time, I tell people the law is the law, and we have to abide by it.”

Martinez believes most Christian conservatives will stay loyal to Trump and the GOP.

Outside the church, though, is a reminder that kitchen-table issues often drive voting decisions: A long double line of cars lined up for a church food bank. Some arrived four hours before it opened.

“The need is great,” Martinez said. Some can’t find jobs. Others are on fixed incomes that don’t keep pace with inflation. Some are large families.”

“People are struggling right now financially,” Martinez said.

Alcazar, the Brownsville ice cream shop owner, said she finds it increasingly difficult to understand Latinos still loyal to Trump and Republicans.

“I don’t know if they thought they were excluded from the brown color that we have,” she said. “I just can’t see how they translate that.”

More important to her, though, is persuading more Latinos in her community who think politics doesn’t matter to become midterm voters.

“Our voice matters,” she said. “We can make a change. This is the year that the Latino community can show up for their people.”

黛西·阿尔卡扎尔是今年中期选举中唯一关注议题的选民：阻止唐纳德·特朗普。

“如果我们这次选举不发声，我认为我们就活不下去了，”阿尔卡萨尔说。“我们正处于水深火热之中。我们快要被烧成灰烬了。我们的企业，我们的经济。”

阿尔卡萨尔和她的丈夫经营着一家名为“La Pale”的传统墨西哥冰淇淋和水果吧店。他们在布朗斯维尔有一家实体店，同时也通过当地一家连锁超市销售产品。“我们毕生的积蓄都押在这家店上了，”她说。

到店销售额下降了50%。首先，是通货膨胀对工薪家庭的影响。

“那是用来挥霍的钱，”她说。“我们现在是奢侈品。”

其次是恐惧因素。阿尔卡萨尔是众多向 CNN 表示许多西班牙裔家庭不敢出门吃冰淇淋、汉堡或咖啡的小企业主之一——尤其是如果这家店是拉丁裔拥有的——因为他们害怕被美国移民和海关执法局拘留。

“我们现在成了目标，”阿尔卡萨尔说。“无论你是否有合法身份，合法还是非法，都无关紧要……人们害怕乘坐公共交通工具，因为移民执法人员就在街上巡逻。我们不能让这种情况正常化。”

作为“遍及地图”（All Over the Map）项目的一部分，我们走访了阿尔卡萨尔和德克萨斯州南部。该项目旨在通过普通美国民众的视角，追踪选举和重大议题的辩论。此次走访本身就充分说明了唐纳德·特朗普总统在中期选举中面临的政治困境。阿尔卡萨尔居住在第34国会选区，该选区是应特朗普要求，德克萨斯州共和党人为2026年中期选举重新划分美国众议院选区时重点关注的地区之一。

第34选区是全国仅有的13个在2024年大选中特朗普获胜但同时民主党人当选众议员的选区之一。2024年，特朗普在第34选区以略高于4个百分点的优势获胜，而民主党众议员维森特·冈萨雷斯则以不到3个百分点的优势胜出。如果当时采用新的选区划分方案，特朗普将以10个百分点的优势获胜。

然而，德州共和党人原本以为会稳操胜券的新选区——以及2026年大选的囊中之物——如今却胜负难料。如果共和党人连他们精心划分的德州选区都无法取胜，那么民主党人赢得众议院控制权，从而改变特朗普总统任期的走向，几乎是板上钉钉的事。

根据新的选区划分方案，德克萨斯州共和党人瞄准的五个民主党把持席位中，有四个席位的选民以拉丁裔为主。但自特朗普第二个任期开始以来，他在全国范围内的拉丁裔选民支持率大幅下降，降幅超过了他整体支持率的降幅。

路易斯·索罗拉认识很多投票给特朗普的拉丁裔选民。他预测2026年会出现反弹。

“因为过去一年情况发生了变化，”索罗拉说道。这位布朗斯维尔的律师四十多年前投出了他的第一张选票，当时投给了罗纳德·里根，但近几届选举他大多支持民主党。“我们当时的经济状况并非如此糟糕。移民和海关执法局（ICE）不像盖世太保那样行事。关税也没有对我们造成损害。很多事情我们都没有遇到。爱泼斯坦的案卷也没有摆在我们面前。”

布朗斯维尔是美墨边境最南端的过境点。非法越境人数大幅下降——这一承诺得以兑现，对于总统及其所在政党而言，在中期选举中无疑是一项巨大的政治优势，尤其是在这个拥有数千名移民和边境执法人员及其家属的地区。然而，至少目前来看，移民问题却成了明显的劣势。

“关于边境安全，有很多争论可以展开，”米尔顿·雷纳说道。他曾三次投票给特朗普，在科珀斯克里斯蒂拥有一家蓝领酒吧。但雷纳补充道：“作为一名拉丁裔，我认为确实需要一些同理心。”

科珀斯克里斯蒂是新地图上最大的变化。

目前的第34选区包括伊达尔戈县的部分地区，与该县接壤。但2026年的选区划分方案将伊达尔戈县划入邻近选区，并纳入努埃塞斯县的大片区域——科珀斯克里斯蒂地区。

因此，新的第 34 选区有大约 63,000 名投票年龄的西班牙裔居民，而努埃塞斯比伊达尔戈更倾向于共和党。

雷纳说：“我们的很多客户都倾向于右翼政治立场。所以，特朗普当选后，我们的业务量激增。”

雷纳计划在11月投票给共和党，但他表示将不参加3月3日的初选。

雷纳说：“我觉得大家对谈论政治都有些厌倦了。我现在比以前更经常关掉电视了。”

雷纳的一些朋友和同事也到场接受了我们的采访。在酒吧和他们简单聊了几句，就足以说明问题了。

五人中有四人是拉丁裔。其中四人投票给了特朗普。

“我觉得他制造了很多混乱，”这群人中唯一一位支持卡玛拉·哈里斯的选民拉蒙·埃雷拉说。“这有点太极端了。”

这四位特朗普的支持者都表示，总统总体上做得不错。

雷纳的商业伙伴迈克·马丁内斯说：“他竞选时承诺的事情，他都一一兑现了。他一直在努力解决这些问题。”

不过，这四个人中有三个人对他做事的方式至少表达了一些保留意见。

“大概80%是正面的，20%是负面的，”拥有几家当地小企业的韦斯特利·贝尔彻说道。

理查德·孔特雷拉斯表示，特朗普应该对美国移民及海关执法局（ICE）加强“控制”。

“去抓真正的罪犯，”他说。“别去招惹那些老爷爷奶奶们。”

五人中无人表示对三月份的初选感兴趣，当被问及特朗普的背书是否会影响他们对初选的看法时，也没有人举手。

“他因为方法和做事方式而失去了一些活力，”科珀斯克里斯蒂的房地产经纪人孔特雷拉斯说。

两名特朗普的支持者表示，他们不排除在11月投票给民主党候选人。

孔特雷拉斯表示，分裂的政府可能会迫使华盛顿做出一些妥协。“值得思考，”他说。但孔特雷拉斯也表示，他对共和党候选人埃里克·弗洛雷斯——一位同样退伍的军人——有着良好的初步印象。

酒吧经理塞莱斯特·蒙特马约尔听起来最坦诚。

蒙特马约尔说：“我确实认为有些事情需要改变。我只是觉得我们目前的做法可能行不通。”

特朗普在2024年击败哈里斯，得益于拉丁裔选民支持率的上升。他在2024年赢得了55%的德克萨斯州拉丁裔选票，高于2020年的41%和2016年的37%。

金斯维尔乡村地区曾是特朗普的票仓。随着中期选举的进行，这里是值得关注的地区之一。

史蒂夫·马丁内斯是金斯威家庭教会的副牧师，该教会的会众中有80%是西班牙裔。马丁内斯说，当被问及投票建议时，他尽量避免提及姓名和政党。

“我总是用圣经来表明我的立场，”马丁内斯说。“国会现在事关重大。我会问：你们对同性恋的看法是什么？你们对堕胎的看法是什么？你知道，这对我来说才是最重要的。”

马丁内斯承认，最近几次周日礼拜结束后，人们开始质疑如何将移民执法策略与基督教价值观相协调。

“看到这些家庭被迫分离，看到这一切发生，确实令人难过，”马丁内斯说。“但与此同时，我也告诉人们，法律就是法律，我们必须遵守。”

马丁内斯认为，大多数基督教保守派人士将继续忠于特朗普和共和党。

然而，教堂外的一幕却提醒我们，民生问题往往会影响选民的投票决定：教堂食物银行外排起了长长的车队，有些人甚至在开门前四个小时就到了。

“需求很大，”马丁内斯说。“有些人找不到工作。有些人收入固定，但涨幅跟不上通货膨胀。还有一些人是大家庭。”

“人们现在经济上都很困难，”马丁内斯说。

布朗斯维尔冰淇淋店老板阿尔卡萨尔表示，她越来越难以理解那些仍然忠于特朗普和共和党的拉丁裔人。

“我不知道他们是不是认为自己不属于我们这种棕色皮肤的人群，”她说。“我实在无法理解他们是怎么理解的。”

不过，对她来说，更重要的是说服社区里更多认为政治无关紧要的拉丁裔选民参与中期选举。

“我们的声音很重要，”她说。“我们可以做出改变。今年是拉丁裔社区为他们的人民挺身而出的一年。”