What’s next after Trump’s massive miscalculation triggers historic defeat

Hilary Swift for CNN

There’s only way to view the Democrats’ midterm election triumph : It is one of the most colossal repudiations of a sitting president in modern history.

Voters had the chance to cast their judgment on Trump’s imperial power grabs; his unpopular war in Iran; his failure to roll back the punishing cost of living; his chaos; his administration’s alleged corruption; and his masked agents rounding up migrants.

They responded by destroying the MAGA monopoly in Washington, handing both the House and the Senate to Democrats, and reviving the constitutional system of checks and balances in a freak blue wave that crashed across GOP heartlands.

The Democratic victory was so huge and swift that it thwarted even Trump’s tendency to view any election he loses as spoiled by fraud. The feared administration operation to challenge the result never materialized. There will be no repeat of the infamy of 2020 because the Democratic win was too big to rig .

American democracy, pushed to its limits during Trump’s two terms, now seems likely to survive him.

And Trump was meek, sounding chastened and nearly unrecognizable when calling into media outlets after the Republican devastation was revealed. A day after calling himself “Mr. Veto,” the president even pledged to find common ground with the party he’d recently declared an existential threat to America. “Well, we’re going to work with the Democrats to make sure things go well for our country. Very important,” he told Politico’s Election Night livestream.

Trump tried to argue that GOP candidates had doomed themselves — largely by not being him. But there was no escaping the reality.

He’d made the election all about himself, despite his appalling approval ratings and the clear through-line between his decision to wage war with Iran this year and the soaring gasoline and diesel prices that hurt millions of families.

HIs self-indulgence turned out to be a massive miscalculation, and his boasts that the country should thank him for its “golden age” were an act of self-delusion that clearly conflicted with the evidence of everyone’s daily life.

And the president’s attempts to tilt the electoral map by gerrymandering districts to eject Democrats mostly foundered on his own massive unpopularity that knocked out Republicans instead.

Andrew Harnik/Getty Images

In 2024, Trump pulled off one of the greatest comebacks in American history to claim a nonconsecutive second presidential term. Two years later, the rout of a Republican Party he transformed in his image must rank as one of the greatest flameouts.

As election night unfolded on Tuesday, the evidence of a political realignment built slowly, then seemed to explode in an unbelievable torrent as Democrats won the House, piled up stunning Senate wins in unheard-of places like South Carolina and Texas, then added a clutch of governorships.

Most of the candidates Trump muscled into key races failed disastrously — including Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton and South Carolina Sen. Darline Graham, who lost her late brother’s seat. Had Trump’s team not chased Sens. Joni Ernst and Thom Tillis out of politics for MAGA heresy, the GOP might have clung on to Iowa and North Carolina.

CNN polling data showed that clear majorities in the country oppose Trump’s war; his economy; his immigration crackdowns; and his leadership.

Trump’s political team has long lauded him as a generational political superstar with an almost supernatural feel for the GOP grassroots and the capacity to deliver political victories that a conventional Republican could never pull off.

There’s some truth to that. But 10 years after his shock first presidential election victory, those powers deserted Trump on Tuesday, after an exhausting monthlong bid to save Republicans in the reddest political territory across the country.

Nowhere encapsulated the scale of the rout and the rejection of Trump more than Texas, where James Talarico won a first Senate seat for Democrats in nearly four decades . And Gov. Greg Abbott — a Republican bulwark — remarkably also fell, beaten in his bid for a fourth term by Democratic lawyer Gina Hinojosa .

Many Trump critics have seen his political career as a backlash to the first Black presidency, of Barack Obama, and have been shaken by his searing racial rhetoric, White cultural references and attacks on minority women and Muslims.

But the elasticity of American politics has shone through again. In a backlash to the backlash, Hinojosa will be the first Latina governor of Texas. Georgia will have its and the nation’s first Black woman governor in Keisha Lance Bottoms. Abdul El-Sayed will be the first Muslim elected to the Senate after fending off Trump’s religious bigotry during the campaign. And House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries is poised to become the first Black speaker.

Trump is far from the first president to endure a midterm meltdown. Obama suffered a “shellacking” in 2010; George W. Bush took a “thumpin’” in 2006; and Bill Clinton’s unpopularity triggered a Republican revolution in 1994.

But 2026 seems especially personal. The president’s entire persona and political rationale is built around the conceit that he’s one of the world’s greatest winners. Yet he’s just been dealt one of the most ignominious defeats.

“I wasn’t on the Ballot and if I was, we would have won IN A LANDSLIDE! Thank you for your attention to this matter. President DONALD J. TRUMP” the president wrote on Truth Social.

But his words rang hollow. Just two days ago he’d told a crowd in Iowa: “Pretend I’m on the ballot because, essentially, I am on the ballot.”

Ellie Merritt for CNN

The new Democratic Congress will make the lives of everyone in Trump’s orbit miserable next year with relentless investigations into the administration, the Iran war, alleged White House corruption and potentially the business ventures that have swelled the president’s personal wealth during nearly two years in office.

After capturing the Senate, the Democrats will have power to block any Supreme Court vacancies that occur during the last two years of Trump’s term and the confirmation of any new Cabinet secretaries that the party opposes.

A period of fierce partisan warfare is now likely. Trump might have been stung by the country’s rebuke on Tuesday, and he will effectively be a lame duck. But the most disruptive president in generations is unlikely to behave like one.

Expect showdowns over the budget and over the Iran war if Trump can’t end it before the next Congress arrives in January. Also likely are prolonged constitutional tussles over his attempts to rule through executive power and Democratic subpoenas for testimony from Trump aides. The president may become even more erratic and aggressive overseas as he tries to compensate for his crimped domestic power.

The size of the GOP disaster on Tuesday — when Democrats won almost everything they hoped to in their wildest dreams, and more — raises grave questions for those eyeing the GOP presidential race in 2028.

Vice President JD Vance now has a giant problem: He’s been seen as Trump’s heir apparent, but he may now have to begin the delicate business of separating himself from the boss. Could Secretary of State Marco Rubio be the man to create a new post-MAGA coalition with remnants of the old GOP, of which he was once a leading light? Or will others, such as Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis, now reason that a hopeful from outside a discredited administration will have a chance of winning the nomination and reviving the Republican brand?

Democrats will also have an issue when they finally stop partying. They’ll have a share of power but will lack the full capacity to deliver the change that voters crave because of Trump’s veto pen. If they can’t deliver on affordability, where both President Joe Biden and Trump failed, they could find themselves on the wrong end of an election night drubbing in just two years.

There are fundamental lessons everyone should learn from this tempestuous era. No political victory is forever, and no majority is permanent.

And most importantly, no president, no matter how powerful they believe themselves to be, is invincible.

希拉里·斯威夫特为CNN撰稿

看待民主党中期选举胜利的唯一方式就是：这是现代史上对在任总统最惨重的否定之一。

选民有机会对特朗普的帝国式权力攫取、不得人心的伊朗战争、未能降低高昂的生活成本、造成的混乱、政府涉嫌腐败以及蒙面特工围捕移民等行为做出评判。

他们的回应是摧毁了MAGA在华盛顿的垄断，将众议院和参议院都交给了民主党，并在席卷共和党腹地的蓝色浪潮中恢复了宪政制衡体系。

民主党的胜利如此巨大且迅速，甚至挫败了特朗普一贯的作风——即认为任何败选的选举都存在舞弊。人们担心的挑战选举结果的行动最终并未发生。2020年的丑闻不会重演，因为民主党的胜利如此巨大，根本不可能被操纵。

在特朗普两届任期内被推向极限的美国民主，现在看来很有可能在他去世后继续存在下去。

在共和党惨败的消息公布后，特朗普在接受媒体采访时显得温顺谦逊，几乎让人认不出来。就在一天前，他还自称“否决先生”，而如今，他甚至承诺要与他不久前还宣称对美国构成生存威胁的政党寻求共同点。“我们会与民主党人合作，确保我们国家一切顺利。这非常重要。”他在接受Politico的选举之夜直播采访时说道。

特朗普试图辩称，共和党候选人注定失败——主要是因为他们不是他。但现实是无法回避的。

尽管他的支持率极低，而且他今年决定对伊朗发动战争与汽油和柴油价格飙升导致数百万家庭受苦之间存在明显的联系，但他还是把这次选举变成了他自己的事。

他的自我放纵最终被证明是一个巨大的误判，他吹嘘国家应该感谢他带来的“黄金时代”，这是一种自欺欺人的行为，明显与每个人的日常生活证据相矛盾。

总统试图通过操纵选区划分来改变选举格局，从而将民主党人赶下台，但他的努力大多以失败告终，因为他本人极不受欢迎，反而使共和党人落败。

Andrew Harnik/Getty Images

2024年，特朗普上演了美国历史上最伟大的逆转之一，赢得了非连续的第二个总统任期。两年后，他一手打造的共和党惨败，堪称历史上最惨重的失败之一。

周二晚选举之夜，政治格局重组的迹象逐渐显现，随后似乎以惊人的速度爆发：民主党赢得了众议院，在南卡罗来纳州和德克萨斯州等鲜为人知的地区取得了令人瞩目的参议院胜利，随后又赢得了一系列州长职位。

特朗普强推的大多数关键选区候选人都惨败，包括德克萨斯州总检察长肯·帕克斯顿和南卡罗来纳州参议员达琳·格雷厄姆（她失去了已故哥哥的席位）。如果特朗普团队没有以“让美国再次伟大”（MAGA）为由将参议员乔尼·恩斯特和汤姆·蒂利斯逐出政坛，共和党或许还能保住爱荷华州和北卡罗来纳州。

CNN民调数据显示，美国绝大多数民众反对特朗普发动的战争、他的经济政策、他的移民打压政策以及他的领导能力。

特朗普的政治团队长期以来一直称赞他是百年一遇的政治巨星，对共和党基层有着近乎超自然的洞察力，并且有能力取得传统共和党人永远无法取得的政治胜利。

这话不无道理。但十年前，特朗普出人意料地首次赢得总统大选，但周二，在他历经一个月精疲力竭、试图挽救共和党在全国最保守的地区——共和党阵营——的颓势之后，这些力量却离他而去。

德克萨斯州最能体现特朗普惨败和选民弃绝他的程度。詹姆斯·塔拉里科为民主党赢得了近四十年来首个参议院席位。而共和党的堡垒——州长格雷格·阿博特——也出人意料地落败，在竞选第四个任期时败给了民主党律师吉娜·希诺霍萨。

许多特朗普的批评者认为他的政治生涯是对首位黑人总统巴拉克·奥巴马的反弹，并对他激烈的种族主义言论、白人文化典故以及对少数族裔女性和穆斯林的攻击感到震惊。

但美国政治的弹性再次显现。在对反弹的反弹中，希诺霍萨将成为德克萨斯州首位拉丁裔州长。佐治亚州将迎来该州乃至全美首位黑人女州长——凯莎·兰斯·博顿斯。阿卜杜勒·埃尔-赛义德在竞选期间顶住了特朗普的宗教偏见，成为首位当选参议员的穆斯林。众议院少数党领袖哈基姆·杰弗里斯有望成为首位黑人议长。

特朗普远非首位遭遇中期选举惨败的总统。奥巴马在2010年遭遇“惨败”；小布什在2006年惨败；而比尔·克林顿的低支持率在1994年引发了共和党的变革。

但2026年似乎对他来说意义尤为重大。总统的整个形象和政治理念都建立在他自认为世界上最伟大的赢家之一的基础上。然而，他刚刚遭遇了最耻辱的失败之一。

“我的名字不在选票上，如果我在的话，我们肯定会以压倒性优势获胜！感谢大家对此事的关注。唐纳德·J·特朗普总统”总统在Truth Social上写道。

但他的话听起来空洞无物。就在两天前，他还在爱荷华州对一群人说：“就当我的名字在选票上吧，因为实际上，我的名字确实在选票上。”

艾莉·梅里特为CNN报道

明年，新一届民主党控制的国会将对特朗普政府、伊朗战争、白宫涉嫌腐败以及可能在近两年的任期内大幅增加总统个人财富的商业活动展开无情调查，这将使所有与特朗普关系密切的人都过得非常痛苦。

民主党夺取参议院控制权后，将有权阻止特朗普任期最后两年内出现的任何最高法院空缺，以及阻止确认该党反对的任何新内阁部长。

一场激烈的党派斗争即将到来。特朗普或许已被周二全国的谴责所震慑，他实际上也将成为一位跛脚鸭总统。但这位几代以来最具破坏性的总统不太可能表现得像个跛脚鸭。

如果特朗普无法在明年1月新一届国会就职前结束伊朗战争，预计双方将在预算和伊朗战争问题上展开激烈对抗。此外，围绕他试图通过行政权力进行统治以及民主党传唤特朗普助手作证等问题，也可能出现旷日持久的宪法之争。为了弥补国内权力受限的局面，总统在海外可能会变得更加反复无常和咄咄逼人。

周二共和党遭遇惨败——民主党几乎赢得了他们梦寐以求的一切，甚至更多——这给那些关注2028年共和党总统候选人的人提出了严峻的问题。

副总统万斯现在面临一个巨大的难题：他一直被视为特朗普的接班人，但现在他可能不得不开始一项棘手的任务——与老板划清界限。国务卿马可·卢比奥能否与他曾经是领军人物的共和党残余势力一起，在“让美国再次伟大”（MAGA）运动之后组建一个新的联盟？或者，像佛罗里达州州长罗恩·德桑蒂斯这样的人，是否会认为来自一个声名狼藉的政府之外的候选人，更有机会赢得提名，重振共和党的形象？

当民主党人最终停止狂欢时，他们也将面临一个问题。他们将掌握一部分权力，但由于特朗普的否决权，他们将缺乏足够的能力来实现选民渴望的变革。如果他们无法在降低民众负担能力方面有所作为——而这正是拜登和特朗普两位总统都未能做到的——那么仅仅两年后，他们就可能在选举之夜遭遇惨败。

每个人都应该从这个动荡的时代中汲取一些基本教训。没有哪项政治胜利是永恒的，也没有哪项多数地位是永远的。

最重要的是，没有哪个总统，无论他自认为多么强大，是不可战胜的。