How Mississippi became an unlikely Senate battleground

Getty Images & Mississippi Free Press/AP

An unpopular president , a charismatic Democratic candidate and an incumbent who has underperformed other Republicans in recent elections have turned a US Senate race in Mississippi into the nail-biter of the midterms.

As of Wednesday afternoon, Democrat Scott Colom was just a few dozen votes ahead of Sen. Cindy Hyde-Smith in a contest that remains too close to call but underscores the midterms’ seismic shift toward Democrats, even in deep-red territory.

The race could come down to roughly 15,000 provisional ballots, according to Colom’s campaign, still pending verification. But in the meantime, both sides expressed confidence they will prevail.

“Once the process plays out, where we are, where the ballots are, we’re gonna win,” Colom said during a news conference Wednesday. “And it’s because the people of Mississippi turned out in historic numbers to make this race possible in a midterm election.”

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In a statement, Hyde-Smith campaign manager Jake Monssen said the team is “closely monitoring” the thousands of ballots still outstanding in the race.

“We remain confident that when every legally cast vote is fully and accurately counted, Mississippians will have reelected Cindy Hyde-Smith,” he added.

The close race comes after Colom campaigned relentlessly to become the first Black senator from Mississippi since the Reconstruction era. The 43-year-old local district attorney argued repeatedly that the Republican headwinds and state’s significant Black electorate – which at 35% is the largest of any state – would put the GOP bastion in contention with enough attention and money.

Lauren Witte/Clarion Ledger/USA Today Network/Reuters

He got both, with several Democratic super PACs making last-minute ad buys and a parade of his party’s biggest names, including former Vice President Kamala Harris , joining him on the stump in the campaign’s waning weeks.

Groups such as the Democracy Alliance – a network of liberal donors – also made early investments to build the infrastructure to support Democrats in the state, including helping the state branch of the NAACP open 11 voter registration sites to boost Black turnout. The NAACP said it registered more than 17,000 voters this year.

Black voters made up about 30% of voters in the race, according to the CNN Voter Poll , with nearly all of them breaking for Colom.

“Mississippians showed up and shocked the nation,” Derrick Johnson, the president and CEO of the NAACP, said in a statement Wednesday.

On the Republican side, President Donald Trump joined Hyde-Smith for an eleventh-hour rally to boost turnout in a state he won by 23 points just two years ago. Hyde-Smith has historically underperformed Trump after she was first appointed to the Senate 2018. In 2020, she won her first full term by 10 points, while Trump won Mississippi by 16 points that year.

During her tenure, however, Hyde-Smith also laid the groundwork for Colom’s challenge when she blocked his nomination to a federal judgeship in 2023, although Colom had the backing of other Republicans, including Sen. Roger Wicker, the state’s senior senator.

Sarah Warnock/USA Today Network/REUTERS

She objected to a donation by liberal billionaire George Soros to a PAC that backed Colom’s first district attorney race. She also cited Colom’s decision to sign a 2021 letter that condemned “the criminalization of transgender people and gender-affirming healthcare.”

In a recent interview with CNN, Colom insisted his campaign to oust Hyde-Smith is not a grudge match. “I’m a Christian. I forgive her,” he said. “Me not having a federal judgeship is not a motivating factor for me at all.”

Instead, he’s argued that the senator has failed her constituents in the Senate.

Colom’s campaign has unleashed some of the most attention-getting ads of the midterms to argue that the incumbent had lost touch with Mississippian’s economic pain. One video mocked Hyde-Smith for remarking that are “so many proteins to choose from” when asked about rising beef prices.

“Pick another protein? She done lost her damn mind. I’d rather pick another senator,” one woman drawled in the ad that quickly went viral.

During the campaign, Colom deleted another ad that featured an artificial intelligence-generated depiction of Hyde-Smith running away from reporters after the state Attorney General Lynn Fitch threatened legal action against him.

Both sides now are gearing up for a legal showdown over the results as the ballot count continues.

Voter advocates and legal observers expect it could take until next week, at the earliest, for initial indications of how many of the roughly 15,000 provisional ballots – known in the state as “affidavit ballots” – will go into the final count after being vetted. Several counties in Mississippi have already started that process.

Provisional ballots are used in Mississippi for a number of reasons, such as a lack of a photo ID, a voter not being found in the pollbook — which can happen if a voter was tagged as inactive — or people submitting incomplete voter registration forms.

Voter advocates expect affidavit ballots cast by inactive voters to make up a significant share, because of a commercial credit data program the state used for the first time this cycle to clean its rolls. Those voters shouldn’t need to take extra steps to see their eligibility verified, but those who were missing photo ID or had other issues will need take action to cure their ballots.

In addition to canvassing the provisional ballots, election officials will also be counting mail ballots that arrive within a five-day grace period the state allows for properly postmarked absentee ballots to be received by the elections office. That number is expected to be smaller than the affidavit ballots to be processed.

CNN’s Adam Cancryn and Annie Grayer contributed to this report.

盖蒂图片社和密西西比自由报/美联社

一位不受欢迎的总统、一位魅力四射的民主党候选人和一位在最近几次选举中表现逊于其他共和党人的现任议员，使得密西西比州的美国参议院竞选成为中期选举中最扣人心弦的一场角逐。

截至周三下午，民主党候选人斯科特·科洛姆仅以几十票的微弱优势领先于参议员辛迪·海德-史密斯，这场选举结果仍然难以预测，但也凸显了中期选举中民主党取得的巨大胜利，即使在深红地区也是如此。

据科洛姆竞选团队称，这场选举的最终结果可能取决于大约15000张尚未核实的临时选票。但与此同时，双方都表示有信心赢得选举。

科洛姆在周三的新闻发布会上说：“一旦选举程序完成，无论我们身处何处，无论选票如何，我们都会赢。这是因为密西西比州人民以历史性的投票率，使得这次中期选举成为可能。”

为什么民主党人在密西西比州敢于怀揣梦想？这一切都始于一位候选人开着墨西哥卷饼餐车穿越全州。

海德-史密斯竞选经理杰克·蒙森在一份声明中表示，该团队正在“密切关注”这场选举中仍未统计的数千张选票。

“我们仍然相信，当每一张合法选票都被全面、准确地统计出来后，密西西比州人民将会再次选举辛迪·海德-史密斯，”他补充道。

科洛姆为成为自重建时期以来密西西比州首位黑人参议员而不懈努力，最终选情胶着。这位43岁的当地地区检察官反复强调，共和党的逆风以及该州庞大的黑人选民群体（占比高达35%，位居全美各州之首）足以让这个共和党堡垒在选举中占据一席之地，前提是投入足够的关注和资金。

Lauren Witte/Clarion Ledger/今日美国网络/路透社

他两方面都得到了支持：几个民主党超级政治行动委员会在最后一刻购买了广告，而且包括前副总统卡马拉·哈里斯在内的该党众多重量级人物也在竞选的最后几周与他一起出现在竞选集会上。

像民主联盟（一个由自由派捐助者组成的网络）这样的团体也进行了早期投资，以建设支持该州民主党的各项基础设施，包括帮助全国有色人种协进会（NAACP）州分会开设11个选民登记点，以提高黑人选民的投票率。全国有色人种协进会表示，今年已登记了超过17000名选民。

根据 CNN 选民民意调查，黑人选民约占此次选举选民的 30%，其中几乎所有人都支持科洛姆。

“密西西比州人民挺身而出，震惊了全国，”全国有色人种协进会主席兼首席执行官德里克·约翰逊周三在一份声明中表示。

共和党方面，特朗普总统与海德-史密斯一同出席了一场紧急集会，旨在提高该州的投票率。两年前，特朗普在该州以23个百分点的优势获胜。自2018年首次被任命为参议员以来，海德-史密斯的得票率一直低于特朗普。2020年，她以10个百分点的优势赢得了她的第一个完整任期，而特朗普当年在密西西比州的得票率则高出16个百分点。

然而，在她任职期间，海德-史密斯也为科洛姆的挑战奠定了基础，她在 2023 年阻止了科洛姆被提名为联邦法官，尽管科洛姆得到了其他共和党人的支持，包括该州资深参议员罗杰·威克。

萨拉·沃诺克/今日美国网络/路透社

她反对自由派亿万富翁乔治·索罗斯向支持科洛姆首次竞选地区检察官的政治行动委员会捐款。她还提到科洛姆在2021年签署了一封谴责“将跨性别者和性别肯定医疗保健定为犯罪”的信函。

科洛姆在最近接受CNN采访时坚称，他发起罢免海德-史密斯的运动并非出于个人恩怨。“我是一名基督徒，我原谅她，”他说。“我没有联邦法官职位根本不是我发起罢免运动的动机。”

相反，他认为这位参议员在参议院辜负了她的选民。

科洛姆的竞选团队在本次中期选举中推出了一些最引人注目的广告，旨在证明现任议员已经脱离了密西西比州民众的经济困境。其中一段视频嘲讽海德-史密斯在被问及牛肉价格上涨时所说的“有这么多蛋白质可以选择”。

“换一种蛋白质？她简直疯了。我宁愿换个参议员。”一位女士在迅速走红的广告中慢条斯理地说。

在竞选期间，科洛姆删除了另一则广告，该广告中用人工智能生成了海德-史密斯逃离记者的画面，此前州检察长林恩·菲奇威胁要对他采取法律行动。

随着计票工作的继续，双方都已做好准备，就选举结果展开法律较量。

选民权益倡导者和法律观察人士预计，最早也要到下周才能初步确定，大约15000张临时选票（在该州被称为“宣誓选票”）中，有多少张在经过审核后会进入最终计票。密西西比州的几个县已经开始了这一程序。

在密西西比州，临时选票的使用有很多原因，例如缺少带照片的身份证件、在选民名册中找不到选民（如果选民被标记为不活跃，则可能会发生这种情况）或人们提交不完整的选民登记表。

选民权益倡导者预计，由于该州本轮选举首次启用商业信用数据程序清理选民名册，不活跃选民通过宣誓书投出的选票将占相当大的比例。这些选民无需采取额外步骤来验证其资格，但那些缺少带照片的身份证明或其他问题的选民则需要采取措施来补正其选票。

除了清点临时选票外，选举官员还将统计在州政府规定的五天宽限期内寄到的邮寄选票。该宽限期允许选举办公室接收盖有有效邮戳的缺席选票。预计邮寄选票的数量将少于需要处理的宣誓选票。

CNN的亚当·坎克林和安妮·格雷尔对本报道亦有贡献。