Democratic wave prompts GOP anxiety over Samuel Alito and future of Supreme Court

Al Drago/Bloomberg/Getty Images

The Democratic rout in Tuesday’s midterm elections sparked an immediate sense of unease on the right about the future of the Supreme Court and a new round of Republican anxiety over decisions by Justices Samuel Alito and Clarence Thomas to stick it out rather than step down.

Multiple sources close to both conservative justices who were granted anonymity to speak freely told CNN on Wednesday they did not anticipate either man leaving the court because of the election results.

But while that may tamp down speculation about an attempt to confirm a justice during a lame duck session of Congress, it will nevertheless leave some legal conservatives on edge for years.

“I hope Clarence Thomas and Sam Alito have historically great health insurance plans,” Josh Hammer, senior counsel to a group that helps support conservative judicial nominations, posted to social media on Wednesday.

As it became clear Democrats would capture the Senate, some Republicans began to openly fret that President Donald Trump’s opportunity to shore up the Supreme Court’s 6-3 conservative majority had slipped from reach. They noted that Alito, 76, and Thomas, 78, may be in their 80s by the time the next GOP president has a chance at a high court nomination with a Republican Senate.

Finn Gomez/Getty Images

Wars, executive actions and a lot of construction: How Trump is expected to handle being a lame-duck president

The Supreme Court’s conservative majority has been a defining feature of the Trump era, pushing the law on abortion, guns and religion to the right at breakneck speed. While Trump had a major hand in that dynamic — naming three justices during his first term — it’s possible he will now finish his second term without a single appointment.

“No Supreme Court justice will be confirmed under President Trump’s administration unless something happens in the next six weeks,” Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis, a Republican, said Wednesday. “That’s not just true for these two years, that would likely be true for the four years after that.”

Both Alito and Thomas, the court’s oldest justices, made clear before the court’s current term began in October that they did not intend to retire. Alito also told Bloomberg News that he would stay on even if Democrats captured the Senate.

But that conviction will be tested in coming days as Republicans attempt to pick up the pieces from Democrats’ sweeping victory and others inevitably draw comparisons to Justice Ruth Bader Ginsburg, a liberal whose decision to not retire when Democrats controlled Washington let Trump solidify the court’s conservative tilt by naming Justice Amy Coney Barrett . Ginsburg died in September 2020 , weeks before that year’s presidential election.

Carolyn Kaster/AP/File

Alito, who has served on the court since 2006, will be 78 when the next presidential contest is decided in 2028. If a Democrat wins the White House, the New Jersey native would have to wait at least another four years — until age 82 — to have an opportunity to be replaced by a Republican president. Thomas, who has served on the court since 1991, will be 80 in 2028 and 84 when voters pick a president in 2032.

Those ages are not out of line with recent retirements at the Supreme Court, where justices serve for life but often step down in their 80s. Justice Anthony Kennedy , a Reagan nominee who became a swing justice, was 82 when he retired in 2018 during Trump’s first term and was succeeded by Justice Brett Kavanaugh. Liberal Justice Stephen Breyer was 83 when he stepped down and gave President Joe Biden the opportunity to nominate Justice Ketanji Brown Jackson.

Alito and Thomas both appear to be in good health, though the court rarely provides detail about the justices’ care. CNN reported in April that Alito was taken to a hospital after becoming ill at a Federalist Society dinner in Philadelphia. He was evaluated and administered fluids for dehydration at the time. Thomas missed several arguments in 2022 after being hospitalized to receive treatment for what a court spokesperson described at the time as an infection.

Both are entitled to enroll in the same health care plans as other federal employees.

Over the weekend, Thomas marked his 35th anniversary on the Supreme Court and Chief Justice John Roberts departed from the normal flow of oral arguments on Monday to make note of it.

Elizabeth Frantz/Reuters

Supreme Court prepared to rule that publicly funded religious schools can reject children of same-sex couples

“Three and a half decades later, Justice Thomas is only the second justice in this court’s history to reach this historic milestone,” Roberts said.

Thomas would become the longest-serving justice in 2028.

Both Alito and Thomas consistently vote for conservative outcomes and are beloved figures on the right, and often criticized by the left.

Alito wrote the majority opinion in 2022 overturning Roe v. Wade , completing a decades-long project of the conservative legal movement. Earlier this year, Alito authored a 6-3 opinion that largely gutted the Voting Rights Act for redistricting, a decision that helped the GOP to some extent. Thomas authored a landmark opinion in 2022 expanding Second Amendment rights and is widely viewed as a jurist who refuses to compromise his convictions.

The consternation over their seats is sure to kick up speculation about whether either justice might step down during the lame duck session of Congress when Republicans will maintain control of the Senate. Following Ginsburg’s death, Trump, aided by then-Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell, rushed Barrett through confirmation in just over a month.

But that approach would carry risks. Ed Whelan, a conservative legal commentator who regularly writes on confirmations, noted that any attempt at confirmation before the new Senate is sworn in could backfire given that a number of lame-duck senators such as John Cornyn of Texas and Thom Tillis of North Carolina “aren’t going to be eager to do Trump any favors.”

Asked by Bloomberg News last month if he was a “firm no” to the idea of retiring in a lame duck Congress, Alito responded, “Yeah.”

A historic blue wave, a stunning rejection of Trump and other takeaways from the midterms

At the same time, Alito acknowledged in an interview with CBS News in October that he had at least weighed retirement as “something I think that somebody at my age has to think about every term.”

There is no indication as yet that the White House or Senate Republicans are even thinking about a lame duck confirmation fight.

There was also little indication Alito or Thomas were distracted by the political calculations being made on their behalf as they took the bench Wednesday to hear a case involving a death row inmate in Texas. Alito stepped into the court’s ornate chamber with a tight grin and few questions. He spent more time than normal leaning far back in his black leather chair — rocking as the technical argument over habeas corpus unfolded over the course of an hour.

Thomas was especially engaged, asking pointed follow up questions that indicated skepticism that the inmate, Dexter Johnson, should be able to bring a new habeas case to challenge his sentence. Thomas even drew a chuckle from his colleagues with a tongue-and-cheek question about whether the foundational 1803 decision in Marbury v. Madison could be considered “new” under the theory raised by Johnson’s attorney.

Al Drago/Bloomberg/Getty Images

周二中期选举中民主党的惨败立即引发了右翼人士对最高法院未来的不安，也引发了共和党人对塞缪尔·阿利托和克拉伦斯·托马斯两位大法官坚持留任而不是辞职的新一轮焦虑。

周三，多位与这两位保守派大法官关系密切的消息人士告诉 CNN，他们预计这两位大法官都不会因为选举结果而离开最高法院。这些消息人士获准匿名发言。

虽然这可能会平息人们对在国会跛脚鸭会期期间确认大法官人选的猜测，但这仍然会让一些法律保守派人士在未来几年感到不安。

“我希望克拉伦斯·托马斯和萨姆·阿利托能拥有史上最好的医疗保险计划，”支持保守派法官提名的团体高级顾问乔什·哈默周三在社交媒体上发帖说。

随着民主党人即将掌控参议院的形势逐渐明朗，一些共和党人开始公开担忧，特朗普总统巩固最高法院6比3保守派多数席位的机会可能已经错失。他们指出，76岁的阿利托和78岁的托马斯，等到下一位共和党总统有机会在共和党控制的参议院提名最高法院大法官时，可能都已年过八旬。

Finn Gomez/Getty Images

战争、行政命令和大量建设：特朗普将如何应对跛脚鸭总统的任期？

最高法院的保守派多数席位是特朗普时代的显著特征，他们以惊人的速度推动堕胎、枪支和宗教等法律向右倾斜。虽然特朗普在这一过程中发挥了重要作用——在其第一任期内任命了三位大法官——但他现在有可能在第二个任期内没有任命任何一位大法官。

“除非未来六周内发生什么事，否则在特朗普总统的领导下，最高法院大法官的任命不会获得确认，”佛罗里达州州长、共和党人罗恩·德桑蒂斯周三表示。“这不仅适用于未来两年，而且很可能也会适用于之后的四年。”

最高法院两位最年长的法官阿利托和托马斯在10月本届任期开始前就已明确表示，他们无意退休。阿利托还告诉彭博新闻社，即使民主党赢得参议院多数席位，他也会继续留任。

但随着共和党人试图收拾民主党大获全胜的残局，以及人们不可避免地将共和党人与露丝·巴德·金斯伯格大法官相提并论，这种信念将在未来几天受到考验。金斯伯格大法官是一位自由派人士，她在民主党掌控华盛顿时选择不退休，这使得特朗普得以任命艾米·科尼·巴雷特大法官，从而巩固了最高法院的保守倾向。金斯伯格于2020年9月去世，距离当年的总统大选仅几周之遥。

卡罗琳·卡斯特/美联社/档案照片

自2006年起担任大法官的阿利托，在2028年下届总统大选时将年满78岁。如果民主党赢得白宫，这位新泽西州人至少还要再等四年——到82岁——才有机会被共和党总统取代。自1991年起担任大法官的托马斯，在2028年将年满80岁，在2032年选民选出总统时将年满84岁。

这些年龄与最高法院近期的退休情况并无太大出入。最高法院大法官终身任职，但通常在80多岁时卸任。安东尼·肯尼迪大法官是里根总统提名的，后来成为摇摆大法官，他在2018年特朗普第一任期内退休，时年82岁，由布雷特·卡瓦诺大法官接任。自由派大法官斯蒂芬·布雷耶在83岁时卸任，让乔·拜登总统有机会提名凯坦吉·布朗·杰克逊大法官。

阿利托和托马斯两位大法官的健康状况似乎都不错，尽管最高法院很少透露大法官们的具体医疗情况。CNN在四月份报道称，阿利托在费城参加联邦党人协会晚宴后感到身体不适，随后被送往医院。当时他接受了评估并输液治疗脱水。托马斯在2022年因住院治疗而缺席了几次庭审，当时法院发言人称他感染了病毒。

他们两人都有权参加与其他联邦雇员相同的医疗保健计划。

上周末，托马斯庆祝了他在最高法院任职 35 周年，首席大法官约翰·罗伯茨周一打破了正常的口头辩论流程，以示纪念。

伊丽莎白·弗兰茨/路透社

最高法院准备裁定，公立宗教学校可以拒绝同性伴侣的孩子入学。

罗伯茨说：“三十五年后，托马斯大法官成为本法院历史上第二位达到这一历史性里程碑的大法官。”

托马斯将于 2028 年成为任期最长的法官。

阿利托和托马斯都一贯投票支持保守派的政策，是右翼人士的偶像，但经常受到左翼人士的批评。

阿利托在2022年撰写了推翻“罗诉韦德案”的多数意见，完成了保守派法律运动长达数十年的征程。今年早些时候，阿利托又撰写了一份6比3的意见书，该意见书大幅削弱了《投票权法》在选区重划方面的效力，这一决定在一定程度上对共和党有利。托马斯在2022年撰写了一份具有里程碑意义的意见书，扩大了第二修正案赋予的权利，他被广泛认为是一位拒绝在信念上妥协的法官。

围绕两位大法官席位的争议势必会引发人们的猜测，即这两位大法官是否会在共和党继续掌控参议院的国会跛脚鸭会期期间辞职。金斯伯格去世后，特朗普在时任参议院多数党领袖米奇·麦康奈尔的协助下，仅用一个多月的时间就迅速完成了巴雷特的任命确认。

但这种做法也存在风险。经常撰写有关确认程序文章的保守派法律评论员埃德·惠兰指出，鉴于一些即将卸任的参议员，例如德克萨斯州的约翰·科宁和北卡罗来纳州的汤姆·蒂利斯，“不会乐意帮特朗普的忙”，因此在参议院新一届宣誓就职之前进行任何确认尝试都可能适得其反。

上个月，彭博新闻社问阿利托，他是否“坚决反对”在跛脚鸭国会退休的想法，阿利托回答说：“是的。”

历史性的蓝色浪潮，对特朗普的惊人否定以及中期选举的其他启示

与此同时，阿利托在 10 月份接受 CBS 新闻采访时承认，他至少考虑过退休，因为“我认为像我这个年纪的人每个任期都必须考虑这件事”。

目前没有任何迹象表明白宫或参议院共和党人正在考虑在总统候选人即将卸任之际发起确认之争。

周三，阿利托和托马斯两位大法官出庭审理一起涉及德克萨斯州死刑犯的案件时，几乎没有迹象表明他们受到外界政治考量的干扰。阿利托走进法庭装饰华丽的房间，脸上带着一丝僵硬的微笑，几乎没有提问。他比平时更多地靠在黑色皮椅上，随着长达一个小时的人身保护令技术性辩论展开，他的身体也随之摇晃。

托马斯尤其积极参与，提出了一系列尖锐的后续问题，表明他对囚犯德克斯特·约翰逊能否提起新的“人身保护令”诉讼以挑战其判决持怀疑态度。托马斯甚至半开玩笑地问，按照约翰逊律师提出的理论，1803年具有里程碑意义的“马伯里诉麦迪逊案”判决是否还能被视为“新的”，这番话引得同事们一阵轻笑。