Americans are footing a $100 billion energy bill from the Iran war

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The Iran war has saddled Americans with a massive energy bill that continues to mount as the conflict drags on.

US consumers are paying an extra $100.9 billion on gasoline and diesel alone since the war started at the end of February, according to a cost tracker published by The Watson School of International and Public Affairs at Brown University.

That amounts to $770 per US household – a figure that will likely rise as fuel costs remain elevated.

“We’re looking at a fall that’s going to be the most expensive ever for gasoline, but really for diesel. And that’s going to fuel every aspect of inflation,” Tom Kloza, chief energy adviser at Gulf Oil, told CNN’s Omar Jimenez over the weekend.

The research measures the additional financial burden on consumers by comparing actual energy prices with a “no-war” counterfactual.

Even though energy prices have not spiked as high as many feared, the Brown University tracker demonstrates how this conflict is eroding Americans’ discretionary income.

Consumers are paying $55 billion more (an average of $422 per US household) on gasoline alone since the war started.

Gas prices climbed to a fresh three-month high above $4.15 a gallon on Tuesday, according to AAA. Monday was the most expensive Labor Day for gas prices on record.

That’s up from $3.20 at this point last year and $2.98 before the war started. Gas prices are still well shy of the post-war high of $4.56 in May and the record of $5.02 a gallon in 2022 after Russia invaded Ukraine.

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Diesel, a crucial fuel that powers trucks, trains, tractors and boats, has never been more expensive than today.

The average price of a gallon of diesel is $5.90 a gallon, up from $3.76 a gallon when the war started. That easily surpasses the prior record set in 2022.

Americans are spending an extra $46 billion (an average of $348 per household) on diesel alone, according to Brown University.

Diesel has skyrocketed more than 60% so far this year, leaving it firmly on track for the biggest annual percentage increase since AAA started tracking it in 2000.

Some analysts warn of even higher prices to come.

Goldman Sachs ramped up its December price forecast on Brent, the global benchmark, by $5, to $85 a barrel. The Wall Street bank expects Brent to average $80 for 2027, up from its prior forecast of $75.

Goldman Sachs expects Middle East oil production to only gradually recover by the second of of next year and warned Brent could top $120 if Gulf output remains well below pre-war levels.

Brent crude is now flirting with $100 a barrel, a psychologically important level it hasn’t settled above since July 23.

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But the problem isn’t just that oil is expensive. It’s that there aren’t enough refineries operating to process that crude, turning it into the gasoline, jet fuel and diesel that power the world economy.

Three of the world’s four refining hubs – the Middle East, Russia and China – have been sidelined by war and export restrictions. US Gulf Coast refineries are running as fast as they can to offset those losses.

“This is a quiet but very, very concerning crisis right now,” Kloza said, adding that consumers across the country are “gonna pay a fortune.”

The August Consumer Price Index inflation report, scheduled for release on Friday, is projected to show prices climbed by 3.4% year over year. With inflation stuck well above the Federal Reserve’s 2% target, the US central bank is expected to seriously consider raising interest rates at its policy meeting next week.

Diesel is on the verge of crossing $6 a gallon nationally for the first time ever.

Patrick De Haan, head of petroleum analysis at GasBuddy, warned on X on Monday that diesel “could blow past” $8 a gallon in California.

According to AAA, diesel averaged a record $7.83 a gallon in California on Tuesday, up from $5.14 at this point last year.

“Some pumps aren’t even built to display what could come next,” De Haan said.

The record-high energy prices are a blow to President Donald Trump, who blasted Biden-era prices during the 2024 campaign and promised to make energy cheap again.

“Oil prices will drop precipitously…when we WIN the war with Iran,” Trump posted on Truth Social on Monday night, echoing comments he’s made for months as the war has dragged on.

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伊朗战争给美国人带来了巨额能源账单，而且随着冲突的持续，账单还在不断攀升。

根据布朗大学沃森国际与公共事务学院发布的一份成本追踪报告，自2月底战争爆发以来，美国消费者仅在汽油和柴油上的支出就增加了1009亿美元。

这相当于每个美国家庭770美元——随着燃料成本居高不下，这个数字很可能会上升。

“我们预计今年秋季汽油价格将创历史新高，柴油价格也将创历史新高。这将推高通货膨胀的各个方面，”海湾石油公司首席能源顾问汤姆·克洛扎周末告诉CNN的奥马尔·吉梅内斯。

该研究通过比较实际能源价格与“无战争”反事实情况，来衡量消费者面临的额外经济负担。

尽管能源价格没有像许多人担心的那样飙升，但布朗大学的追踪数据显示，这场冲突正在侵蚀美国人的可支配收入。

自战争开始以来，消费者仅在汽油一项上的支出就增加了 550 亿美元（平均每个美国家庭增加 422 美元）。

据美国汽车协会（AAA）的数据显示，周二汽油价格攀升至每加仑4.15美元以上，创下三个月来的新高。周一是劳动节汽油价格最高的一天，也是有记录以来最贵的劳动节。

这比去年同期的每加仑3.20美元和战前每加仑2.98美元的价格有所上涨。不过，目前的汽油价格仍远低于5月份战后每加仑4.56美元的高点，以及俄罗斯入侵乌克兰后2022年创下的每加仑5.02美元的纪录。

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柴油是卡车、火车、拖拉机和轮船的重要燃料，如今它的价格从未像现在这样昂贵。

柴油平均价格为每加仑5.90美元，高于战争开始时的每加仑3.76美元。这轻松超过了2022年创下的此前纪录。

据布朗大学统计，美国人仅在柴油一项上就额外花费了 460 亿美元（平均每个家庭 348 美元）。

今年以来，柴油价格已飙升超过 60%，有望创下自 AAA 于 2000 年开始追踪柴油价格以来最大的年度涨幅。

一些分析师警告称，未来价格可能还会更高。

高盛将12月份布伦特原油（全球基准原油）的价格预期上调5美元，至每桶85美元。这家华尔街投行预计，2027年布伦特原油的平均价格将达到每桶80美元，高于此前预测的75美元。

高盛预计中东石油产量要到明年下半年才能逐步恢复，并警告称，如果海湾地区的产量仍然远低于战前水平，布伦特原油价格可能会超过每桶 120 美元。

布伦特原油价格目前徘徊在每桶 100 美元附近，这是一个具有重要心理意义的水平，自 7 月 23 日以来，布伦特原油价格一直未能稳定在这个水平之上。

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但问题不仅仅在于石油价格昂贵，还在于炼油厂数量不足，无法将原油加工成汽油、航空煤油和柴油等世界经济所需的燃料。

全球四大炼油中心中的三个——中东、俄罗斯和中国——因战争和出口限制而陷入停滞。美国墨西哥湾沿岸的炼油厂正全力运转以弥补这些损失。

“这是一场悄无声息但非常令人担忧的危机，”克洛扎说，并补充说，全国各地的消费者“将为此付出巨额代价”。

8月份消费者价格指数（CPI）通胀报告将于周五公布，预计同比上涨3.4%。由于通胀率远高于美联储2%的目标，预计美联储将在下周的政策会议上认真考虑加息。

柴油价格即将首次在全国范围内突破每加仑 6 美元大关。

GasBuddy 石油分析主管 Patrick De Haan 周一在 X 电台警告称，加州的柴油价格“可能会超过”每加仑 8 美元。

据美国汽车协会 (AAA) 称，周二加州柴油均价创下每加仑 7.83 美元的历史新高，高于去年同期的每加仑 5.14 美元。

德哈恩说：“有些泵甚至没有设计成可以显示接下来可能发生的事情。”

创纪录的高能源价格对唐纳德·特朗普总统来说是一个打击，他在 2024 年竞选期间抨击了拜登时代的能源价格，并承诺让能源再次变得便宜。

“当我们赢得与伊朗的战争时，石油价格将急剧下降，”特朗普周一晚在 Truth Social 上发帖称，这与他几个月来在战争持续期间发表的言论如出一辙。