When will China have a sixth-gen fighter jet?

CHRISTCHURCH, New Zealand — Despite China’s notorious secrecy surrounding all things defense, there are indications it is making progress on a sixth-generation fighter .

Perhaps the clearest admission came from a WeChat social media post by Aviation Industry Corporation of China in January 2019. In an interview discussing sixth-gen fighters, Wang Haifeng, the chief designer at AVIC subsidiary Chengdu Aerospace Corp., said preparations were underway to research a combat aircraft that would be ready to “protect the sea and sky” by 2035.

At the time, Wang mentioned elements like manned-unmanned teaming, the use of artificial intelligence, as well as improved stealth and omnidirectional sensors.

In 2022, the head of U.S. Air Combat Command said those efforts are “on track.”

“By and large, they see it [sixth-gen fighter technology] greatly the way we see it in terms of an exponential reduction in signature and exponential acceleration in processing power and sensing, and the ability to iterate in terms of open-mission systems, to be able to essentially reprogram at the speed of relevance,” Gen. Mark Kelly said.

Fast forward to the present, and Rick Joe, who has written extensively about the Chinese military, considers the sixth-gen efforts a program of record, noting that “indicators since 2019 in the semiofficial space have only increased.” Examples include AVIC artwork depicting generic next-gen fighter configurations, academic papers, and statements from military and industry officials. In addition, satellite imagery of a tailless fighter-like airframe was seen at Chengdu Aerospace facilities in October 2021.

Joe told Defense News that demonstrator testbeds, possibly subscale versions, have already flown.

For lack of an official name, he referred to the mysterious fighter as the J-XD. “I fully expect the J-XD to have some subsystems (like engines), which will be less capable than a U.S. equivalent initially, simply because there are some domains where they are still catching up, albeit with significant closing of gaps over the past few decades.”

Joe noted that sixth-gen fighters are typically expected to include aerodynamic design and control; radiofrequency materials; flight control software; sensing technologies; data-linking and combat-management systems; weapons; and the integration of collaborative combat aircraft, or complementary drones.

“I see them as playing in the general ballpark of other nations pursuing a sixth-gen capability,” Joe said.

But when Defense News asked Brendan Mulvaney, the director of the U.S. Air Force’s China Aerospace Studies Institute, whether China currently has the capability to develop these advanced fighters, the response was slightly less optimistic for Beijing.

“Today? No. Twenty years from now? Absolutely. And we’ve seen this time and time again. We’re getting better at not ... underestimating what the Chinese system is capable of when it sets its mind to it,” Mulvaney said.

The official said mastering jet engines has been China’s bane, but it is getting better. “At the end of the day, that’s just science. I tell people that physics works the same in Berlin as it does in Beijing. So if you put enough time and effort ... you can make a good aerospace engine, especially for the military side.”

Mulvaney said China has described its future fighter as unmanned, but he believes the design is more likely optionally manned, as it depends on how quickly industry can develop AI systems, alongside other requisite technologies. “You don’t have to have a man [in it] and you potentially let it go off on its own, or it could serve as a loyal wingman.”

China’s drone manufacturers are ambitious, but it’s not entirely clear where that technology stands in terms of complementing a future sixth-gen fighter. Notably, Joe said, Chinese-made combat drones and collaborative combat aircraft that have appeared at air shows are “likely not representative of actual in-development [unmanned combat aerial vehicles] intended for the [People’s Liberation Army], which are almost certainly more ambitious in scope.”

The stealthy GJ-11 combat drone was unveiled at a military parade in Beijing, China, in 2019. (Gordon Arthur/Staff)

He also said it’s fair to assume various sophisticated combat drones “are in advanced development/testing or even limited trial service.”

An in terms of trialing manned-unmanned teaming, China’s existing J-20 fighter could contribute, as the country developed a twin-seat version where a backseat operator can control drones. However, this variant is currently a technology demonstrator.

If the Chengdu Aerospace chief designer’s predictions of a sixth-gen fighter being operational in 2035 hold true, Joe said a maiden flight would need to take place at least five years before then, and thus a prototype would need to be ready around 2028. He expressed confidence this is possible, although Mulvaney predicted it will probably take China “until the late 2030s, if not the early 2040s,” to reveal a meaningful design.

Gordon Arthur is an Asia correspondent for Defense News. After a 20-year stint working in Hong Kong, he now resides in New Zealand. He has attended military exercises and defense exhibitions in about 20 countries around the Asia-Pacific region.

新西兰基督城——尽管中国在国防领域一向以保密著称，但有迹象表明，中国在第六代战斗机的研发方面正在取得进展。

或许最明确的表态来自中国航空工业集团公司2019年1月在微信上发布的一条社交媒体帖子。在一次讨论第六代战斗机的采访中，中航工业子公司成都航天集团的总设计师王海峰表示，正在筹备研发一种到2035年能够“保卫海空”的作战飞机。

当时，王提到了有人-无人协同作战、人工智能的应用以及改进的隐身技术和全向传感器等要素。

2022年，美国空战司令部司令表示，这些努力“进展顺利”。

“总的来说，他们对第六代战斗机技术的看法与我们的看法非常相似，即特征呈指数级降低，处理能力和传感能力呈指数级提升，并且能够在开放式任务系统中进行迭代，从而能够以与时俱进的速度进行重新编程，”马克·凯利将军说。

时至今日，长期关注中国军方的里克·乔（Rick Joe）认为，第六代战机的研发计划已成定局，并指出“自2019年以来，半官方渠道的种种迹象表明，该计划的推进速度只增不减”。例如，中航工业发布的描绘下一代战机通用构型的宣传图、学术论文以及军方和工业界官员的声明等。此外，2021年10月，成都航天工业公司附近还出现了疑似无尾战斗机的卫星图像。

乔告诉《防务新闻》，演示测试平台（可能是缩小版）已经试飞过了。

由于没有正式名称，他将这款神秘战斗机称为 J-XD。“我完全预料到 J-XD 的某些子系统（例如发动机）在初期性能会逊于美国同类产品，原因很简单，尽管过去几十年来差距已显著缩小，但在某些领域，美国仍在迎头赶上。”

乔指出，第六代战斗机通常应包括空气动力学设计和控制；射频材料；飞行控制软件；传感技术；数据链接和作战管理系统；武器；以及与协同作战飞机或互补无人机的集成。

乔说：“我认为他们和其他正在追求第六代战机能力的国家处于大致相同的轨道上。”

但当《防务新闻》询问美国空军中国航天研究所所长布伦丹·穆尔瓦尼，中国目前是否具备研发这些先进战斗机的能力时，北京方面的回应则略显悲观。

“今天？不。二十年后？绝对会。而且我们已经一次又一次地看到这一点。我们越来越不会……低估中国体制一旦下定决心所能做到的事情，”穆尔瓦尼说。

这位官员表示，掌握喷气式发动机一直是中国的一大难题，但情况正在好转。“归根结底，这只是科学。我常说，物理定律在柏林和北京都适用。所以，只要投入足够的时间和精力……就能制造出优秀的航空航天发动机，尤其是在军事领域。”

穆尔瓦尼表示，中国曾将未来的战斗机描述为无人战斗机，但他认为该设计更可能是可选有人驾驶的，因为这取决于业界开发人工智能系统和其他必要技术的速度。“你不需要（飞行员）在里面，你可以让它自主飞行，或者它可以作为忠诚的僚机。”

中国的无人机制造商雄心勃勃，但就未来第六代战斗机而言，这项技术究竟处于何种水平尚不完全清楚。乔指出，值得注意的是，在航展上亮相的中国制造的作战无人机和协同作战飞机“很可能并不代表正在为解放军研发的实际无人作战飞行器，后者几乎肯定规模更大”。

2019年，隐形作战无人机GJ-11在中国北京举行的阅兵式上首次亮相。（戈登·阿瑟/摄）

他还表示，可以合理推断，各种先进的作战无人机“正处于高级研发/测试阶段，甚至正在进行有限的试用”。

在有人-无人协同作战试验方面，中国现有的歼-20战斗机可以发挥作用，因为中国已经研发出一种双座型歼-20，后座操作员可以控制无人机。然而，这种改进型目前仍处于技术验证阶段。

如果成都航天总设计师关于第六代战斗机将于2035年投入使用的预测成真，乔表示，首飞至少需要在此之前五年进行，因此原型机需要在2028年左右准备就绪。他表示对此充满信心，尽管穆尔瓦尼预测，中国可能要到“2030年代末，甚至2040年代初”才能推出有意义的设计。

戈登·阿瑟是《防务新闻》的亚洲特派记者。在香港工作20年后，他现居新西兰。他曾到访亚太地区约20个国家，参加过军事演习和防务展览。