Super El Niño-fueled fires destroyed huge tracts of this country before. They’re happening again

Abriansyah Liberto/Reuters

Wildfires are ripping across parts of Indonesia, destroying precious peatland and smothering the country in a toxic smoke so thick, people are struggling to breathe. With months of wildfire season still remaining, experts warn this could end up one of the country’s worst.

Blazes have been raging for many weeks, with parts of Sumatra and Indonesian Borneo among the hardest hit. Flights have been delayed, parks shut and thousands of schools closed as reports of asthma cases and respiratory infections soar. Authorities have deployed more than 50 aircraft for both cloud-seeding — the attempt to artificially simulate rain — and water-bombing operations, according to Reuters .

Indonesia is no stranger to wildfires; they are an annual event. But this year, the arrival of what’s expected to be a “super” El Niño — a supercharged version of the natural climate pattern which tends to bring bone dry conditions to the country — has set the stage for unusually intense blazes.

A previous super El Niño in 2015 fueled catastrophic fires, which incinerated around 2.6 million hectares — an area roughly the size of Massachusetts — cost the country as much as $28 billion and may have caused 100,000 premature deaths across Indonesia, Malaysia and Singapore.

There are fears this fire season could rival that intensity, as the current El Niño, which arrives in a world already heated by human-caused climate change, is shaping up to be historically strong. “The magnitude of the 2026 fire season is currently very similar to that of 2015,” said Nisa Novita, a peatlands researcher at YKAN, an Indonesian conservation non-profit.

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Already the fires have eaten through more than 200,000 hectares of land and the fire season is likely to continue into October and November. Over 23,000 “fire hotspots” have been detected by satellites in the last eight months, according to BKMG, the Indonesian government agency for meteorology, climatology and geophysics. This means “2026 is already surpassing 2015 in terms of fire activity,” a BKMG spokesperson said.

It’s a catastrophe for this vast archipelago of more than 17,000 islands. Indonesia is a biodiversity hotspot, home to critically endangered orangutans, Sumatran tigers and rhinos. It also contains nearly 40% of the world’s tropical peatland, water-logged ecosystems that lock up vast amounts of planet-heating carbon. “These ecosystems are essentially storing ancient carbon beneath our feet,” Novita said.

The problem is that when peatland is drained or degraded then exposed to drought, it turns into a “vast reservoir of ready fuel,” said Guillermo Rein, professor of fire science at Imperial College London. When they burn, they release massive amounts of planet-heating pollution.

Willy Kurniawan/Reuters

Huge stretches of peatland in Indonesia have been cleared and drained for commercial plantations, including those that produce palm oil, an ingredient used in a slew of products from noodles to toothpaste.

“By draining away the water … companies leave the previously fireproof landscape like a ticking carbon time bomb,” said Belgis Habiba, a forest campaigner from Greenpeace Indonesia.

Humans are usually the ones who set off this bomb, through activities such as burning land to prepare it for agriculture and plantations. But El Niño amplifies the flames by prolonging dry conditions, lowering water levels in the peatland and turning plants into tinder.

El Niño “does not necessarily create every fire, but it greatly intensifies existing fires and allows them to spread more easily,” said Herry Purnomo, Indonesia Country Program Director at the Center for International Forestry Research, a non-profit research organization.

Tropical peatland blazes are among the most dangerous on Earth. NASA describes them as a contender for the “apex predator” of fires because they burn slowly, produce vast amounts of pollution and are very difficult to extinguish, often smoldering underground as so-called zombie fires that refuse to die.

“Peat fires can persist for weeks or longer and can reignite if conditions remain dry,” said Dominick Spracklen, a professor of biosphere-atmosphere interactions at the University of Leeds.

Indonesia’s fire emissions last month were the highest recorded in August for the past 24 years, according to Copernicus, the European Union’s climate change service.

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Wildfire smoke rapidly increases tiny and very dangerous particles of air pollution called PM2.5, which can travel deep inside people’s lungs causing heart and breathing problems. More than 50,000 respiratory infections have been linked to the fires so far, according to Indonesia’s Health Ministry.

Plumes of smoke have also drifted into the neighboring countries of Malaysia, the Philippines and Singapore. Malaysia’s health ministry has reported asthma cases rising by 259%, according to local media .

“These fires demonstrate that wildfires are not a localized challenge – their impacts can extend hundreds of miles from the source,” said Mark Parrington, a senior scientist at Copernicus Atmosphere Monitoring Service.

The Copernicus Atmosphere Monitoring Service

Over the past three weeks, the fires have released nearly 49 million tons of carbon, more than the same period in 2015, Copernicus data shows. And it’s a vicious cycle. “Emissions worsen global warming and climate change, which in turn can increase the frequency and severity of drought and fire conditions,” Purnomo said.

While Purnomo believes the strength of El Niño brings “legitimate concerns,” he doesn’t think the impacts will reach the catastrophic levels of 2015. “Indonesia has learned important lessons and strengthened prevention, monitoring, and response measures,” he said.

But, experts warn, with months left of fire season, there are big fears. “The rainy session might be the only way to stop them,” Rein said — and that is likely many weeks away.

阿布里安西亚·利伯托/路透社

野火肆虐印尼部分地区，摧毁了珍贵的泥炭地，浓重的有毒烟雾笼罩着整个国家，人们呼吸困难。由于野火季还有数月才结束，专家警告说，这起火灾可能成为该国历史上最严重的火灾之一。

大火已持续肆虐数周，苏门答腊岛和印尼婆罗洲部分地区受灾最为严重。航班延误，公园关闭，数千所学校停课，哮喘和呼吸道感染病例激增。据路透社报道，当局已部署50多架飞机进行人工增雨（即人工模拟降雨）和洒水灭火作业。

印尼对野火并不陌生，野火几乎每年都会发生。但今年，预计将出现的“超级”厄尔尼诺现象——一种强度极高的厄尔尼诺气候模式，通常会给印尼带来极度干旱——为异常猛烈的火灾埋下了隐患。

2015 年的超级厄尔尼诺现象引发了灾难性的火灾，烧毁了约 260 万公顷的土地（面积大致相当于马萨诸塞州），给美国造成了高达 280 亿美元的损失，并可能导致印度尼西亚、马来西亚和新加坡 10 万人过早死亡。

人们担心今年的火灾季强度可能与2015年不相上下，因为当前的厄尔尼诺现象正值全球变暖之际，而且强度有望创历史新高。印尼环保非营利组织YKAN的泥炭地研究员尼萨·诺维塔表示：“2026年火灾季的规模目前与2015年非常相似。”

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目前，火灾已吞噬超过20万公顷土地，火灾季很可能持续到10月和11月。据印尼气象、气候和地球物理局（BKMG）称，过去八个月里，卫星已探测到超过2.3万个“火灾热点”。BKMG发言人表示，这意味着“2026年的火灾活动已经超过了2015年”。

对于这个拥有超过17000个岛屿的广袤群岛来说，这是一场灾难。印度尼西亚是生物多样性热点地区，是极度濒危的猩猩、苏门答腊虎和犀牛的家园。这里还拥有全球近40%的热带泥炭地，这些水饱和的生态系统封存着大量的温室气体碳。“这些生态系统实际上将远古碳储存在我们脚下，”诺维塔说道。

伦敦帝国理工学院火灾科学教授吉列尔莫·雷恩表示，问题在于，当泥炭地被排干或退化，并暴露于干旱环境时，就会变成“巨大的易燃物库”。一旦燃烧，它们会释放出大量的温室气体。

威利·库尼亚万/路透社

印度尼西亚大片泥炭地已被清理和排干，用于商业种植园，其中包括生产棕榈油的种植园。棕榈油是众多产品（从面条到牙膏）的原料。

“通过排干水分……企业将原本防火的土地变成了一颗定时炸弹，”绿色和平组织印尼分部的森林活动家贝尔吉斯·哈比巴说道。

人类通常是引爆这颗“炸弹”的罪魁祸首，例如为了开垦农田和种植园而焚烧土地。但厄尔尼诺现象会加剧火势，因为它延长了干旱期，降低了泥炭地的水位，并将植物变成易燃物。

国际林业研究中心（一家非营利性研究机构）印度尼西亚国家项目主任赫里·普尔诺莫表示：“厄尔尼诺现象不一定会引发每一场火灾，但它会大大加剧现有的火灾，并使火灾更容易蔓延。”

热带泥炭地火灾是地球上最危险的火灾之一。美国宇航局称其为火灾中的“顶级掠食者”，因为它们燃烧缓慢，产生大量污染，而且极难扑灭，常常像所谓的“僵尸火”一样在地下阴燃，难以熄灭。

“泥炭火可能会持续数周甚至更长时间，如果环境保持干燥，还可能复燃，”利兹大学生物圈-大气相互作用教授多米尼克·斯普拉克伦说。

据欧盟气候变化服务机构哥白尼计划称，印度尼西亚上个月的火灾排放量是过去 24 年来 8 月份记录到​​的最高值。

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野火产生的烟雾会迅速增加空气中一种名为PM2.5的微小且危害极大的颗粒物，这些颗粒物可以深入肺部，引发心脏和呼吸系统疾病。据印尼卫生部统计，迄今为止，已有超过5万例呼吸道感染病例与野火有关。

烟雾也飘到了邻国马来西亚、菲律宾和新加坡。据当地媒体报道，马来西亚卫生部报告称，该国哮喘病例增加了259%。

“这些火灾表明，野火并非局部性挑战——其影响范围可从火源延伸数百英里，”哥白尼大气监测服务中心高级科学家马克·帕林顿说。

哥白尼大气监测服务

哥白尼计划的数据显示，过去三周，山火释放了近4900万吨碳，超过了2015年同期水平。这是一个恶性循环。“排放加剧了全球变暖和气候变化，而这反过来又会增加干旱和火灾发生的频率和严重程度，”普尔诺莫说。

普尔诺莫认为，厄尔尼诺现象的强度确实会带来“合理的担忧”，但他并不认为其影响会达到2015年的灾难性程度。他说：“印尼已经吸取了重要的教训，并加强了预防、监测和应对措施。”

但专家警告说，距离火灾季节结束还有几个月，人们非常担忧。“降雨可能是阻止火灾蔓延的唯一途径，”雷恩说——而降雨可能还要好几周才会到来。