Rheinmetall scales down 2026 sales outlook on scrapped frigate program

German defense company Rheinmetall lowered its 2026 sales outlook on Thursday after the German government canceled a delayed frigate program that the company had been widely expected to win.

Rheinmetall now expects sales in the range of €13.7 billion to €14.2 billion ($15.8 billion to $16.4 billion), down from €14.0 billion to €14.5 billion previously, based on a €300 million hit to its naval division.

It also cut its order book guidance to more than €100 billion, from roughly €135 billion previously, and lowered its capital expenditure target to 8%-9% of sales from 16%.

The company left its free cash flow conversion ratio and margin targets unchanged and said it remained on track for record growth.

JPMorgan analysts said they had expected the canceled frigate program to have made more of an impact beyond 2026 and said the downgrades could signal slower growth in 2027-28.

Rheinmetall had reported a nearly 70% jump in second-quarter sales to about €3.3 billion, with all business segments contributing to the rise, in an unscheduled release last month.

Its shares fell as much as 4% in early trading before paring losses to trade 1.2% down by 0745 GMT.

Rheinmetall has seen its fortunes soar with Europe’s renewed interest in building up its defenses after Russia invaded Ukraine in February 2022, with Europe’s largest ammunition maker targeting annual sales of up to €50 billion by 2030.

The company completed the acquisition in March of the warship division of German shipbuilder Luerssen as part of its ambitions to become a bigger player in the naval sector.

It has also been considering acquiring German Naval Yards Kiel and promised to reach a final decision within weeks after a rival bidder withdrew from the process last month.

The German government’s decision in June to scrap a delayed frigate program for which Rheinmetall had looked likely to secure the contract tempered the company’s upward momentum.

“In the naval business, too, we are looking to the future and are working hard to fulfil our current maritime orders as a reliable partner with a high level of expertise, and to secure new ones on the international stage as well,” said Chief Executive Armin Papperger on Thursday.

德国国防公司莱茵金属周四下调了其2026年的销售预期，此前德国政府取消了一项延期的护卫舰项目，而此前外界普遍预期该公司会赢得该项目。

莱茵金属公司目前预计销售额在 137 亿欧元至 142 亿欧元（158 亿美元至 164 亿美元）之间，低于此前预期的 140 亿欧元至 145 亿欧元，原因是其海军部门遭受了 3 亿欧元的损失。

该公司还将订单预期从之前的约 1350 亿欧元下调至 1000 亿欧元以上，并将资本支出目标从销售额的 16% 下调至 8%-9%。

该公司维持了自由现金流转化率和利润率目标不变，并表示仍有望实现创纪录的增长。

摩根大通分析师表示，他们原本预计取消的护卫舰项目会在 2026 年以后产生更大的影响，并表示评级下调可能预示着 2027-28 年的增长速度会放缓。

莱茵金属公司上个月发布了一份非计划发布的财报，称第二季度销售额增长近 70%，达到约 33 亿欧元，所有业务部门都为这一增长做出了贡献。

其股价在早盘交易中一度下跌 4%，之后跌幅收窄，截至格林威治标准时间 07:45，跌幅为 1.2%。

随着俄罗斯在 2022 年 2 月入侵乌克兰后，欧洲重新燃起加强国防的热情，莱茵金属公司的业绩也随之飙升。这家欧洲最大的弹药制造商的目标是到 2030 年实现年销售额高达 500 亿欧元。

该公司于 3 月份完成了对德国造船商吕尔森 (Luerssen) 军舰部门的收购，这是其成为海军领域更大参与者的雄心壮志的一部分。

该公司还曾考虑收购德国基尔造船厂，并承诺在上个月竞争对手退出竞购后几周内做出最终决定。

德国政府在 6 月份决定取消一项延期的护卫舰项目，莱茵金属公司原本很有可能获得该项目的合同，这一决定抑制了该公司的上涨势头。

“在海军业务方面，我们也着眼于未来，努力履行我们当前的海事订单，成为拥有高水平专业知识的可靠合作伙伴，并在国际舞台上争取新的订单，”首席执行官阿明·帕佩格尔周四表示。