Maine and Michigan Senate races are neck and neck, CNN polls find

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The critical Senate contests in both Maine and Michigan feature tight races with no clear leader, according to new CNN polls conducted by SSRS. But voters in the two states see their choices through two very different lenses.

In Maine , the race centers more on likely voters’ broadly negative views of incumbent Sen. Susan Collins and President Donald Trump than on their impressions of the late-breaking Democratic nominee, Troy Jackson. Many voters are still getting to know Jackson after he replaced Graham Platner following allegations of sexual assault that Platner has denied.

Michigan voters are more focused on the candidates’ issue positions amid an open-seat campaign featuring one of the most progressive Democratic candidates of this cycle in Abdul El-Sayed against former GOP congressman Mike Rogers.

Fifty percent of voters say El-Sayed’s positions are too liberal, compared with 42% who say that Rogers is too conservative. Roughly two-thirds – including broad majorities of both candidates’ supporters – think El-Sayed would try to change things a lot in Washington, while just 20% say the same of Rogers.

But both Collins and Rogers face political headwinds driven by economic concerns and negativity toward Trump. The people most likely to vote in each state say that they would prefer to see Democrats win control of the Senate after this fall’s midterm elections.

Trump is deeply unpopular in both Maine and Michigan, with about two-thirds of voters in each state disapproving of his performance as president. The share of voters who say they are dissatisfied or angry with the way things are going in the country far outpaces the share who are satisfied or enthusiastic.

The economy and cost of living is far and away the top issue in each state, and by a better than two-to-one margin, likely voters say they are worse off rather than better off compared with two years ago. Most also view the increased tariffs on Canadian goods with skepticism: less than 15% think the tariffs are a good thing and about two-thirds in each state – both of which border Canada – view the tariffs negatively.

Even among likely voters, Democrats in both states are far more motivated to vote than their Republican counterparts, mirroring a trend seen nationwide in this year’s midterm polling. Among the most motivated voters, Democrats lead handily in both states.

In Michigan, likely voters split about evenly between El-Sayed at 47% and Rogers at 44%, a margin that lands within the poll’s margin of sampling error. Rogers has broadly unified Republican likely voters in the state: 97% back him. Among Democrats, 90% support El-Sayed, while just 3% say they back Rogers. Independents break toward El-Sayed, 48% to 32%, with about one in five not supporting either candidate.

About a quarter of Michigan likely voters overall haven’t yet firmly decided who they will support in the race for Senate. That number hits 40% among Black voters and voters younger than 35, and it stands at 36% among independents who are likely to vote.

Most voters who have picked a side say their vote is more in favor of their chosen candidate than against his opponent, but there is more negative sentiment among Rogers’ backers. About 4 in 10 who support Rogers say their vote is against El-Sayed while 31% backing El-Sayed say their vote is an anti-Rogers one.

Nearly half of Michigan likely voters say that the candidate’s positions on the issues are their top factor in deciding whom to support, while fewer, 31%, say that partisan control of the Senate is their top consideration and 22% cite the candidates’ character and experience.

Although El-Sayed’s positions on Israel were a point of contention in the Democratic primary, a scant 3% of likely voters statewide say US policy toward Israel is the top issue in deciding their vote. Most, 54%, say the US is doing too much to help Israel.

El-Sayed’s backing is strongest among younger voters. He carries a majority of likely voters younger than 45 while trailing among those 45 and older. He holds a 9-point lead among women while men split more evenly, 48% for Rogers to 44% for El-Sayed. White voters in the state break narrowly in Rogers’ favor, while Black voters broadly back El-Sayed, 77% to 10%, with about 14% opting for neither.

El-Sayed’s primary opponent, Rep. Haley Stevens, performed strongest in the August primary in counties with significant Black populations. The new poll suggests many Black voters haven’t yet formed opinions on El-Sayed: 66% say they have a favorable view, 2% an unfavorable one, and 32% aren’t sure yet.

Roughly one in five say they don’t have an opinion of each candidate. El-Sayed’s favorability is an even split, 40% on each side. Views of Rogers break negative, 42% unfavorable to 35% favorable.

In the race to replace Democratic Gov. Gretchen Whitmer, current Secretary of State Jocelyn Benson leads the Republican Rep. John James 50% to 41%.

In Maine, 48% of likely voters are currently backing Jackson with 45% supporting Collins. That’s inside the survey’s margin of sampling error and a considerably tighter race than the state’s gubernatorial contest, where Democrat Hannah Pingree leads Republican Bobby Charles, 52% to 39%.

Roughly 18% of likely voters say they could change their mind about whom they support for Senate, or that they haven’t yet picked a candidate.

Jackson’s supporters stand out from other voters in either state polled for their close focus on the national implications of the race. A 53% majority say that party control of the Senate is the top consideration in their vote, and nearly half cite the state of US democracy as their top issue.

Roughly 7 in 10 of Jackson’s backers say they’d be casting their ballot more out of opposition to Collins than support for him, while only a quarter of Collins backers are motivated by their opposition to Jackson.

That may in part reflect Collins’ status as a better-known quantity. While likely voters’ impressions of both candidates are negative on balance, nearly a quarter don’t yet have an opinion of Jackson, while just 8% haven’t formed an opinion on Collins.

And while Maine voters in both parties largely say they’re satisfied with their choice of candidates in the race, nearly 4 in 10 Democratic-aligned voters, compared with about a quarter of those who side with the GOP, say they’re unhappy.

Maine voters are about equally likely to call Jackson too liberal and Collins too conservative – and most reject both characterizations. But Jackson is seen as relatively likely to shake things up in Washington, with 42% saying he’d try to change things a lot if elected, compared with just 14% who think Collins would do so if given another term.

This is the first time Collins has stood for reelection since the Supreme Court overturned Roe vs. Wade, an outcome owing in part to her support for the confirmation of Justice Brett Kavanaugh. Four years later, almost two-thirds of Maine voters say they feel negatively about the 2022 Dobbs ruling, including about half saying it makes them feel angry. Those who remain angry are largely backing Jackson, while those who feel less strongly are largely behind Collins.

The CNN polls of Maine and Michigan likely voters were conducted online and by phone August 31-September 6, 2026. Registered voters were randomly sampled from both registered voter lists and a probability-based panel. Results among likely voters include all registered voters in the poll weighted for their predicted likelihood of voting in this year’s election. Results among 880 likely voters in Maine have a margin of sampling error of plus or minus 3.7 percentage points; it is 4.1 points among the 843 likely voters in Michigan.

路透社/彭博社/盖蒂图片社/美联社

根据 SSRS 为 CNN 所做的最新民调显示，缅因州和密歇根州的关键参议院选举竞争异常激烈，目前尚无明显领先者。但这两个州的选民看待选举的角度却截然不同。

在缅因州，这场选举的焦点更多地集中在选民对现任参议员苏珊·柯林斯和总统唐纳德·特朗普普遍的负面看法上，而不是他们对后来才宣布参选的民主党候选人特洛伊·杰克逊的印象。许多选民仍在了解杰克逊，因为他接替了格雷厄姆·普拉特纳的职位，而普拉特纳否认了性侵指控。

在密歇根州一个空缺席位的竞选中，选民们更加关注候选人的政策立场。本届选举周期中最具进步精神的民主党候选人之一阿卜杜勒·埃尔-赛义德将与前共和党国会议员迈克·罗杰斯展开角逐。

50%的选民认为埃尔-赛义德的立场过于自由派，而42%的选民认为罗杰斯的立场过于保守。大约三分之二的选民——包括两位候选人支持者中的绝大多数——认为埃尔-赛义德会试图对华盛顿进行大刀阔斧的改革，而只有20%的选民对罗杰斯持同样的看法。

但柯林斯和罗杰斯都面临着由经济担忧和对特朗普的负面情绪引发的政治阻力。各州最有可能投票的选民表示，他们更希望看到民主党在今年秋季的中期选举后赢得参议院的控制权。

特朗普在缅因州和密歇根州的支持率都非常低，这两个州大约有三分之二的选民不认可他的总统表现。对国家现状感到不满或愤怒的选民比例远远超过感到满意或热情的选民比例。

经济和生活成本无疑是各州选民最关心的问题，超过二比一的选民表示，与两年前相比，他们的生活水平下降了。大多数人对加拿大商品关税的提高持怀疑态度：只有不到15%的人认为关税是好事，而与加拿大接壤的两个州中，约有三分之二的人对关税持负面看法。

即使在可能投票的选民中，这两个州的民主党人也比共和党人更有投票热情，这与今年中期选举民调中全国范围内的趋势相符。在投票热情最高的选民中，民主党人在这两个州都遥遥领先。

在密歇根州，可能投票的选民中，埃尔-赛义德和罗杰斯的支持率大致相当，分别为47%和44%，这一差距在民调的抽样误差范围内。罗杰斯在该州共和党选民中获得了广泛的支持：97%的共和党选民支持他。在民主党选民中，90%支持埃尔-赛义德，只有3%支持罗杰斯。独立选民则倾向于埃尔-赛义德，支持率为48%，支持率为32%，约五分之一的独立选民对两位候选人均不予支持。

密歇根州约有四分之一的潜在选民尚未最终决定支持哪位参议员候选人。在黑人选民和35岁以下选民中，这一比例高达40%，而在可能投票的独立选民中，这一比例为36%。

大多数已表明立场的选民表示，他们的投票更多是支持自己选择的候选人，而非反对其对手，但罗杰斯的支持者中负面情绪更为明显。约有十分之四的罗杰斯支持者表示，他们的投票是反对埃尔-赛义德的，而31%的埃尔-赛义德支持者则表示，他们的投票是反对罗杰斯的。

近一半的密歇根州潜在选民表示，候选人在各项议题上的立场是他们决定支持谁的首要因素，而只有 31% 的人表示，党派对参议院的控制是他们首要考虑的因素，22% 的人则提到了候选人的品格和经验。

尽管埃尔-赛义德在以色列问题上的立场是民主党初选中的一个争议点，但在全州范围内，只有区区3%的潜在选民表示，美国对以色列的政策是他们决定投票的首要因素。大多数选民（54%）认为，美国对以色列的援助过多。

埃尔-赛义德的支持率在年轻选民中最高。他在45岁以下的潜在选民中占据多数，但在45岁及以上的选民中则落后。他在女性选民中领先9个百分点，而男性选民的支持率则较为接近，罗杰斯获得48%，埃尔-赛义德获得44%。该州的白人选民略微倾向于罗杰斯，而黑人选民则普遍支持埃尔-赛义德，支持率分别为77%和10%，另有约14%的选民未选择任何候选人。

埃尔-赛义德的主要竞争对手、众议员海莉·史蒂文斯在8月份的初选中，在黑人人口较多的县表现最为出色。最新民调显示，许多黑人选民尚未对埃尔-赛义德形成明确的看法：66%的人表示对她有好感，2%的人表示没有好感，32%的人表示不确定。

大约五分之一的人表示他们对每位候选人都没有看法。埃尔-赛义德的支持率和反对率各占40%。罗杰斯的评价则以负面为主，42%的人持负面看法，35%的人持正面看法。

在争夺接替民主党州长格雷琴·惠特默的竞选中，现任州务卿乔斯林·本森以 50% 对 41% 的得票率领先共和党众议员约翰·詹姆斯。

在缅因州，目前有48%的潜在选民支持杰克逊，45%支持柯林斯。这一结果在调查的抽样误差范围内，而且这场选举的竞争比该州的州长选举要激烈得多。在州长选举中，民主党候选人汉娜·平格里以52%对39%的优势领先于共和党候选人鲍比·查尔斯。

大约 18% 的潜在选民表示，他们可能会改变对参议员候选人的支持，或者他们还没有选定候选人。

在接受民调的两个州中，杰克逊的支持者与其他选民相比，尤其关注这场选举对全国的影响。53%的受访者表示，参议院的控制权是他们投票时的首要考虑因素，近一半的受访者则将美国民主的现状列为他们最关心的问题。

杰克逊的支持者中约有十分之七的人表示，他们投票更多是出于对柯林斯的反对，而不是支持他；而柯林斯的支持者中只有四分之一的人是出于对杰克逊的反对而投票。

这或许部分反映了柯林斯知名度更高。虽然潜在选民对两位候选人的总体印象都比较负面，但近四分之一的人对杰克逊尚无定论，而只有8%的人对柯林斯没有形成看法。

虽然缅因州两党选民大多表示对他们选择的候选人感到满意，但近 40% 的民主党选民表示不满意，而共和党选民中只有约四分之一的人表示不满意。

缅因州选民认为杰克逊过于自由派和柯林斯过于保守的可能性大致相同——而且大多数人并不认同这两种说法。但杰克逊被认为更有可能在华盛顿掀起波澜，42%的选民表示，如果他当选，他会尝试做出很多改变，而只有14%的选民认为，如果柯林斯连任，他会这样做。

这是科林斯自最高法院推翻“罗诉韦德案”以来首次竞选连任，而最高法院推翻“罗诉韦德案”的部分原因在于她支持布雷特·卡瓦诺大法官的任命。四年后，近三分之二的缅因州选民表示他们对2022年“多布斯案”的裁决持负面态度，其中约一半人表示对此感到愤怒。那些仍然愤怒的人大多支持杰克逊，而那些情绪不那么强烈的人则大多支持科林斯。

CNN于2026年8月31日至9月6日期间，通过网络和电话对缅因州和密歇根州的潜在选民进行了民意调查。调查对象为已登记选民，样本随机抽取自选民登记册和基于概率的样本组。潜在选民的调查结果包含了所有参与调查的已登记选民，并根据他们预计参加今年选举的投票可能性进行了加权。缅因州880名潜在选民的调查结果的抽样误差为正负3.7个百分点；密歇根州843名潜在选民的调查结果的抽样误差为正负4.1个百分点。