The GOP heads into the general election with a significant enthusiasm deficit

It remains to be seen whether this week’s unusual GOP midterm convention will fire up the base for the final two months of the campaign, but the party clearly needs some help.

Recent polling shows Republicans continue to suffer from a significant enthusiasm deficit heading into the stretch run of the campaign.

And crucially, President Donald Trump — who has been the star of the convention — is proving a much stronger motivator for his critics than his supporters.

The two most recent polls on this came from the University of Massachusetts and Reuters-Ipsos last week. And both show Democrats with a double-digit edge in enthusiasm.

In the former, Democrats were more likely than Republicans to say they are “very enthusiastic” about voting in the midterms by a 42%-30% margin. In the latter, the gap was 40%-27%.

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Both also show Democrats with an edge — albeit a slightly smaller one — when it came to voters who were at least “somewhat enthusiastic.”

The Reuters-Ipsos numbers were similar to where they were in November 2025, shortly after Democrats had a very good election.

The numbers are also similar to what we saw in July from other pollsters.

A CNN poll conducted by SSRS , for instance, showed a 14-point gap among those saying they were “extremely” motivated to vote — 60% among Democrats and Democratic-leaning independents vs. 46% among Republicans and GOP-leaning independents. The blue side had a smaller 6-point edge in those saying they were either “extremely” or “very” motivated to vote (79%-73%).

A Washington Post poll showed Democratic-leaning voters were 7 points more likely to be “absolutely certain” to vote (73%-66%), and they were 21 points more likely to say it’s “more important” to vote in 2026 than in previous midterm elections (70%-49%).

And finally, a Quinnipiac University poll showed an 18-point gap on the latter question (57%-39%).

The Democratic advantage is remarkably similar across pollsters and across different types of questions.

What’s more, that pattern looks a lot like the last midterm election year with Trump as president — 2018, which was a good election for Democrats in the House.

Back then, the same polls showed Democrats generally benefited from a double-digit edge among the most motivated voters and a mid-to-high single-digit edge among those who said they were certain to vote.

Julia Demaree Nikhinson/AP

The Washington Post and Quinnipiac polls in the summer of 2018 also showed Democrats with similar advantages when it came to those who said it was more important to vote that year than in other midterms ( 17-18 points ).

All of these numbers suggest a tough election ahead for Republicans. But if there’s an optimistic case to be made for the GOP, it’s that the numbers aren’t worse, especially since Trump is more unpopular today than he was eight years ago, according to most every poll. Back then, with a similar enthusiasm gap, the 2018 election still ended up being close enough that the GOP gained Senate seats (thanks to a favorable map with multiple red-state Democrats facing daunting reelections).

All of that brings us to the other potential impact of this week’s convention: shining a light on Trump.

One thing that comes through in recent polls is that the president is a much more powerful motivator for the opposition than he is for his supporters:

62% of Democrats “strongly” agreed they would be voting in significant part based on their feelings about Trump, compared to just 26% of Republicans, according to the UMass poll.

70% of Democratic-leaning voters said their vote was sending a message of opposition to Trump, compared to just 41% of Republican-leaners who said it would be a message of support, per the CNN poll.

The same numbers were 81% and 42%, respectively, in a Pew Research Center poll also conducted in July.

All of those numbers reinforce that Trump’s base isn’t enthused about turning out for him. And that’s bleeding into the party’s larger enthusiasm gap.

Perhaps the convention will remind some Trump supporters why they’ve supported him more strongly in the past or convince them that turning out to vote for other Republicans is just that important.

But Trump’s penchant for making these kinds of things all about himself could also have the opposite effect — by reminding his base exactly why they’re so meh about voting.

本周不同寻常的共和党中期选举大会能否在竞选的最后两个月激发支持者的热情还有待观察，但该党显然需要一些帮助。

最近的民调显示，共和党人在竞选冲刺阶段仍然面临着严重的选民热情不足的问题。

至关重要的是，作为大会明星的唐纳德·特朗普总统，对他的批评者来说，其激励作用远大于对他的支持者。

上周，马萨诸塞大学和路透社-益普索分别进行了两项最新的民调。两项民调均显示，民主党人在支持率方面拥有两位数的优势。

在前一项调查中，民主党人比共和党人更有可能表示他们对中期选举“非常热衷”，比例为42%比30%。在后一项调查中，这一比例为40%比27%。

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两项调查结果都显示，在至少“有些热情”的选民中，民主党人略占优势——尽管优势较小。

路透社-益普索的数据与 2025 年 11 月的数据类似，当时民主党刚刚取得了一场非常不错的选举。

这些数据与我们7月份从其他民调机构获得的数据也类似。

例如，CNN委托SSRS进行的一项民调显示，在表示“非常”有投票意愿的人群中，民主党人和倾向民主党的独立人士的比例为60%，而共和党人和倾向共和党的独立人士的比例为46%，两者相差14个百分点。在表示“非常”或“很”有投票意愿的人群中，民主党的优势较小，仅为6个百分点（79%比73%）。

《华盛顿邮报》的一项民意调查显示，倾向于民主党的选民“绝对确定”会投票的可能性高出 7 个百分点（73%-66%），而且他们表示在 2026 年投票比以往的中期选举“更重要”的可能性高出 21 个百分点（70%-49%）。

最后，昆尼皮亚克大学的一项民意调查显示，在后一个问题上存在 18 个百分点的差距（57%-39%）。

不同民调机构和不同类型的问题都显示，民主党的优势非常相似。

此外，这种模式看起来很像特朗普担任总统的上一次中期选举年——2018 年，那次选举对众议院的民主党人来说是一次不错的选举。

当时的民调显示，民主党在最积极的选民中普遍享有两位数的优势，而在表示一定会投票的选民中享有个位数的中高位优势。

朱莉娅·德马雷·尼金森/美联社

2018 年夏季，《华盛顿邮报》和昆尼皮亚克大学的民意调查也显示，在那些认为当年投票比其他中期选举更重要的人中，民主党人也具有类似的优势（17-18 个百分点）。

所有这些数字都表明，共和党即将面临一场艰难的选举。但如果说共和党还有什么值得乐观的地方，那就是情况并没有更糟，尤其是在几乎所有民调都显示特朗普如今的支持率比八年前更低的情况下。当年，尽管支持率差距与现在类似，但2018年的选举最终结果仍然非常接近，共和党最终赢得了参议院席位（这得益于当时的选情对共和党有利，因为多位来自传统共和党州的民主党议员面临着严峻的连任挑战）。

所有这些都引出了本周大会的另一个潜在影响：让特朗普成为关注焦点。

最近的民调显示，总统对反对派的激励作用远大于对支持者的激励作用：

根据马萨诸塞大学的民意调查，62%的民主党人“强烈”同意，他们的投票很大程度上取决于他们对特朗普的看法，而持此观点的共和党人仅占26%。

根据 CNN 的民意调查，70% 的民主党倾向选民表示，他们的投票是为了表达对特朗普的反对，而只有 41% 的共和党倾向选民表示，他们的投票是为了表达对特朗普的支持。

皮尤研究中心在 7 月份进行的一项民意调查显示，这两个数字分别为 81% 和 42%。

所有这些数据都进一步表明，特朗普的基本盘对投票支持他并不热情。而这正在加剧民主党整体上的热情低迷。

或许这次大会会提醒一些特朗普的支持者，他们过去为什么更坚定地支持他，或者让他们意识到，投票给其他共和党人是多么重要。

但特朗普喜欢把这类事情都扯到自己身上，这可能会产生相反的效果——让他的支持者们更加清楚地意识到他们为什么对投票如此漠不关心。