Trump’s $5,000 checks would solve a problem that doesn’t exist – and create a new one

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America’s economy has a perception problem: People think it’s weak , because prices are high. In reality, the economy is growing strong – probably too strong.

Handing out $5,000 checks to every American adult if Republicans win the midterms could initially help make folks feel better about the economy. Everyone loves free money.

Except it isn’t free.

Doling out stimulus checks when unemployment is low, inflation is high and growth is robust would raise prices even faster while adding significantly to America’s growing debt load, potentially creating a true economic problem that could cause significant pain for the people Trump’s checks would be trying to help.

President Donald Trump on Wednesday promised that if Republicans hold Congress in November, he would authorize a “dividend” for American citizens. He didn’t specify how that would be enacted or funded, although Vice President JD Vance later suggested on Fox News that tariff revenue could at least in part fund the checks.

It’s similar to proposals Trump made repeatedly last year to send Americans tariff rebate checks . It would probably take an act of Congress to accomplish and could face potentially insurmountable hurdles to becoming reality – even if Republicans win the midterms.

If the stars align and the dividend payments somehow get sent out, they could deal the economy a serious jolt. Stimulus checks have historically been an effective tool to shore up consumer confidence and spending – although typically when the economy is in dire need, such as the 2008 checks during the global financial crisis and the 2020 and 2021 checks that went out during the pandemic.

Regardless of how they’re funded, paying $5,000 to every American adult would cost the US government more than $1 trillion, adding to its more-than-$40-trillion debt load. For perspective, that’s equal to the amount that all AI companies are expected to spend on infrastructure this year – a number that is already clearly causing inflation to rise.

“It is the working definition of ill-timed and ill-advised fiscal policy,” said Joe Brusuelas, chief economist at RSM US.

Unlike when stimulus check payments were sent out in past years, America’s economy shows no signs of needing crisis-level intervention.

The US economy stands firmly on two legs: Massive spending on AI and robust growth in consumer spending, largely ( but not exclusively ) from wealthier Americans. Both are keeping growth humming at a reasonably steady pace and maintaining the unemployment rate at a healthy level just above 4%.

But they’re also contributing to inflation. In addition to high oil prices from the Iran war and Trump’s tariff policy, massive AI demand has led to big increases in chip prices, labor and building supply costs, plus electricity and software prices. Strong consumer spending has supported companies’ price hikes as shipping and technology costs continue to rise.

Inflation isn’t out of control like it was in 2022, when annual price increases topped 9% – a four-decade high. But inflation has been uncomfortably high since the pandemic and has been creeping higher again this year – a sign of an economy that is running too hot.

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That’s why the Federal Reserve has maintained rates at relatively high levels and is considering a rate hike at next week’s meeting to slow inflation – and the economy – down.

Exacerbating the problem is the government’s extreme lack of fiscal discipline . Populist economics are in vogue across both sides of the political aisle at the moment. That has led to tax cuts and spending increases, both of which also add to the mounting debt that costs taxpayers more than $1 trillion a year just to finance – equal to 19% of the overall federal budget.

Those populist spending policies also fuel inflation and have contributed to the bond market turmoil in recent weeks and months.

Bond investors are growing increasingly skeptical that Washington can get its act together to solve the underlying inflation problem – and they’re concerned that politicians may actually enact policies like $5,000 dividend checks that could make inflation worse. So bond markets are demanding a higher yield to compensate them for the growing risk that their investments will be devalued over time by rising prices.

The 10-year yield surpassed 4.86% Thursday following Trump’s announcement, hitting its highest level since 2023. That’s exacerbating some of the cost-of-living concerns Americans face: High bond yields are driving interest rates higher on consumer loans that are pegged to Treasuries, including mortgage rates and auto loans.

It’s also working against Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent’s attempt to calm down the bond market by intervening with a $6 billion government debt buyback , announced Wednesday. It would be working against Trump’s new Fed Chair, Kevin Warsh, too, who has made it his stated mission to defeat inflation. And the dividend checks would potentially force the Fed to raise rates significantly higher, undermining Trump’s long-held goal of getting rates lower.

“That’s why it’s pretty safe to say it won’t happen,” said James Reilly, senior markets economist at Capital Economics.

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美国经济存在一个认知问题：人们认为经济疲软，因为物价高企。但实际上，经济增长强劲——或许过于强劲了。

如果共和党赢得中期选举，向每位美国成年人发放5000美元支票，或许能暂时提振人们对经济的信心。毕竟，谁不喜欢免费的钱呢？

但它并非免费。

在失业率低、通货膨胀高、经济增长强劲的情况下发放刺激支票，会加速物价上涨，同时大幅增加美国不断增长的债务负担，这可能会造成真正的经济问题，给特朗普试图通过支票帮助的人们带来巨大的痛苦。

唐纳德·特朗普总统周三承诺，如果共和党在11月的大选中继续掌控国会，他将授权向美国公民发放“红利”。他没有具体说明这项计划将如何实施或筹集资金，不过副总统JD·万斯后来在福克斯新闻上暗示，关税收入至少可以部分用于支付这笔款项。

这与特朗普去年多次提出的向美国民众发放关税退税支票的提议类似。这可能需要国会立法才能实现，而且即便共和党赢得中期选举，也可能面临难以逾越的障碍。

如果一切顺利，股息能够按时发放，可能会给经济带来巨大的冲击。刺激经济的支票历来都是提振消费者信心和刺激支出的有效工具——尽管通常是在经济极度困难的时候才会发放，例如2008年全球金融危机期间发放的支票，以及2020年和2021年疫情期间发放的支票。

无论资金来源如何，向每位美国成年人发放5000美元都将耗费美国政府超过1万亿美元，使其超过40万亿美元的债务负担进一步加重。作为参考，这相当于所有人工智能公司今年预计在基础设施建设上的支出总额——而这一数字显然已经导致通货膨胀加剧。

RSM US首席经济学家乔·布鲁苏拉斯表示：“这就是不合时宜且不明智的财政政策的典型定义。”

与往年发放刺激支票时的情况不同，美国经济目前没有迹象表明需要危机级别的干预。

美国经济稳固的支柱在于两大因素：一是人工智能领域的巨额投资，二是强劲的消费增长，而消费支出主要（但不完全）来自富裕的美国人。这两方面因素共同维持着经济增长的稳定势头，并将失业率维持在略高于4%的健康水平。

但它们也加剧了通货膨胀。除了伊朗战争和特朗普关税政策导致的高油价外，人工智能的巨大需求也推高了芯片价格、劳动力和建筑材料成本，以及电力和软件价格。强劲的消费支出支撑了企业提价，而运输和技术成本也在持续上涨。

通货膨胀不像2022年那样失控，当时年物价涨幅超过9%，创下四十年来新高。但自疫情爆发以来，通货膨胀率一直居高不下，今年更是再次攀升——这表明经济运行过热。

安吉拉·韦斯/法新社/盖蒂图片社

这就是为什么美联储一直维持利率在相对较高的水平，并正在考虑在下周的会议上加息，以减缓通货膨胀和经济增长的原因。

雪上加霜的是，政府极度缺乏财政纪律。目前，民粹主义经济学在两党都盛行。这导致了减税和支出增加，而这两者都加剧了不断攀升的债务，每年仅偿还债务一项就需要纳税人花费超过1万亿美元——相当于联邦预算总额的19%。

这些民粹主义支出政策也加剧了通货膨胀，并导致了近几周和几个月的债券市场动荡。

债券投资者越来越怀疑华盛顿能否齐心协力解决根本性的通胀问题——他们担心政客们可能会出台诸如发放5000美元股息支票之类的政策，从而加剧通胀。因此，债券市场要求更高的收益率，以弥补他们因物价上涨而导致投资贬值的风险。

特朗普宣布加息后，10年期国债收益率周四突破4.86%，达到2023年以来的最高水平。这加剧了美国人面临的一些生活成本担忧：高债券收益率推高了与国债挂钩的消费贷款利率，包括抵押贷款利率和汽车贷款利率。

这同时也阻碍了财政部长斯科特·贝森特周三宣布的60亿美元政府债券回购计划，该计划旨在通过干预来稳定债券市场。此外，这也将对特朗普新任命的美联储主席凯文·沃什不利，沃什已明确表示其使命是抑制通胀。而且，这些股息支票可能会迫使美联储大幅提高利率，从而破坏特朗普长期以来降低利率的目标。

“因此，几乎可以肯定地说，这种情况不会发生，”凯投宏观(Capital Economics)高级市场经济学家詹姆斯·雷利(James Reilly)表示。