Global oil hits $105 per barrel and bond yields surge

Aaron M. Sprecher/AP

Oil prices rose Thursday, with Brent crude hitting $105 per barrel for the first time since May, as conflict in the Middle East continued to roil global markets.

Oil prices have climbed back above the $100 per barrel mark this week as fighting in the Straight of Hormuz and Red Sea has intensified. The US and Iran have traded strikes, while the Iran-backed Houthis have attacked Saudi Arabia and ignited tensions in the Bab al-Mandab Strait.

Brent crude, the global oil benchmark, and US crude each rose more than 4% on Thursday before pulling back slightly. US crude oil hit $100 per barrel for the first time since May before paring some gains and trading at $99 per barrel.

Resurgent conflict has stoked concerns of further disruptions to global oil supplies and the flow of crude through the Strait of Hormuz. The rise in oil prices has added to nerves about inflation and central bank rate hikes, sending ripples through bonds and stocks.

“The step up in attacks in the Strait of Hormuz and by the Houthis against Saudi Arabia suggests that Iran and its proxies are trying to regain the initiative in the war,” Jason Tuvey, deputy chief emerging markets economist at Capital Economics, said in a note.

“This could set back the recovery in oil output in the Gulf and raises the risk that global energy prices rise even further in the coming weeks,” Tuvey said.

The bond market sell-off intensified on Thursday, with the key 10-year Treasury yield surging nine basis points to 4.93%, its highest level since October 2023.

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Bond yields hit highest levels since 2023 after Treasury Department announces up to $6 billion buyback

Bond yields have surged despite the Treasury Department on Wednesday announcing it would buy back up to $6 billion bonds on Thursday, a move that could ease pressure on yields.

Some investors weren’t satisfied with the scale of the announcement, while others contend that government buybacks aren’t enough to change the trajectory of bond yields, which have surged this year on concerns about higher energy prices and central bank rate hikes.

“Treasury is figuratively shooting a BB gun at an elephant,” Mike O’Rourke, chief market strategist at JonesTrading, said in a note.

The surge in oil prices and bond yields Thursday morning came as new data showed headline wholesale inflation picked up in August. Traders are pricing in a 70% chance that the Federal Reserve raises interest rates at its policy meeting next week, up from a 61% chance on Wednesday and a 49% chance one week ago, according to CME FedWatch.

Stocks were lower Thursday, with the major US indexes dropping for the fourth day in a row. The S&P 500 fell 0.6%, extending a recent bout of weakness.

The S&P 500 is down more than 2.5% since its last record high on August 13. As corporate earnings seasons winds down, investors are turning their focus to the Iran war, rising bond yields and assessing the outlook for the Federal Reserve.

The stress from the war with Iran is showing up in markets beyond just crude oil. Diesel prices, essential for the fuel powering trucking and shipping, have surged this year to record highs. The national average diesel price hit a record $5.98 a gallon on Thursday, according to AAA data.

The spike in refined oil products is more concerning than crude oil surging, said Claudio Galimberti, chief economist at Rystad Energy. Businesses, industry and consumers use refined products, so the trends in the price of diesel matter more than just what’s going on with Brent crude, Galimberti said.

“When it comes to crude, the situation is actually less dangerous than it is in the oil products, specifically diesel,” Galimberti told CNN.

The European Central Bank raised its main interest rate by a quarter of a percentage point to 2.5% Thursday, the second increase this year as the energy shock precipitated by the Iran war drives prices higher.

“The conflict in the Middle East continues to generate inflation pressures, and inflation is set to remain well above target for an extended period,” the ECB said in a statement.

CNN’s Hanna Ziady contributed reporting.

亚伦·M·斯普雷彻/美联社

周四油价上涨，布伦特原油价格自5月以来首次达到每桶105美元，原因是中东冲突继续扰乱全球市场。

本周，随着霍尔木兹海峡和红海战事升级，油价重回每桶100美元以上。美国和伊朗互相发动空袭，而伊朗支持的胡塞武装则袭击了沙特阿拉伯，并引发了曼德海峡的紧张局势。

周四，全球原油基准布伦特原油和美国原油价格均上涨超过4%，随后略有回落。美国原油价格一度触及每桶100美元，创下5月以来新高，之后涨幅收窄，最终交投于每桶99美元附近。

冲突再度升级，加剧了人们对全球石油供应和霍尔木兹海峡原油运输进一步中断的担忧。油价上涨加剧了人们对通胀和央行加息的担忧，并引发债券和股票市场的波动。

“霍尔木兹海峡袭击事件的增加以及胡塞武装对沙特阿拉伯的袭击表明，伊朗及其代理人正试图重新夺回战争的主动权，”凯投宏观(Capital Economics)副首席新兴市场经济学家杰森·图维(Jason Tuvey)在一份报告中表示。

图维表示：“这可能会阻碍海湾地区石油产量的复苏，并增加未来几周全球能源价格进一步上涨的风险。”

周四债券市场抛售加剧，关键的 10 年期美国国债收益率飙升 9 个基点至 4.93%，为 2023 年 10 月以来的最高水平。

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财政部宣布高达60亿美元的债券回购计划后，债券收益率达到2023年以来的最高水平。

尽管美国财政部周三宣布将于周四回购至多 60 亿美元的债券，此举可能会缓解收益率压力，但债券收益率仍然飙升。

一些投资者对公告的规模并不满意，而另一些投资者则认为，政府回购债券不足以改变债券收益率的走势，今年以来，由于担心能源价格上涨和央行加息，债券收益率已经飙升。

JonesTrading首席市场策略师Mike O'Rourke在一份报告中表示：“财政部此举就像是用BB枪射击大象一样。”

周四早盘，油价和债券收益率飙升，原因是最新数据显示8月份整体批发通胀率有所上升。据芝加哥商品交易所（CME）旗下FedWatch的数据显示，交易员预计美联储下周政策会议上加息的可能性为70%，高于周三的61%和一周前的49%。

周四股市走低，美国主要股指连续第四个交易日下跌。标普500指数下跌0.6%，延续了近期的疲软走势。

自8月13日创下历史新高以来，标普500指数已下跌超过2.5%。随着企业财报季接近尾声，投资者正将注意力转向伊朗战争、不断上升的债券收益率以及对美联储前景的评估。

伊朗战争带来的压力正波及原油以外的其他市场。柴油价格是卡车和航运的重要燃料，今年以来已飙升至历史新高。据美国汽车协会（AAA）的数据显示，周四全美柴油平均价格达到每加仑5.98美元，创下历史新高。

Rystad Energy首席经济学家克劳迪奥·加林贝蒂表示，成品油价格飙升比原油价格暴涨更令人担忧。加林贝蒂指出，企业、工业和消费者都需要使用成品油，因此柴油价格的走势比布伦特原油价格的波动更为重要。

“就原油而言，情况实际上比石油产品，特别是柴油，要安全得多，”加林贝蒂告诉 CNN。

欧洲中央银行周四将主要利率上调0.25个百分点至2.5%，这是今年第二次加息，原因是伊朗战争引发的能源冲击推高了价格。

欧洲央行在一份声明中表示：“中东冲突持续造成通胀压力，通胀率预计将在较长一段时间内远高于目标水平。”

CNN的汉娜·齐亚迪对此报道亦有贡献。