Houthi’s Stranglehold On Strategic Bab Al-Mandab Strait Grows Stronger胡塞武装对战略要地曼德海峡的控制日益加强
The capture of the port of Mokha and possibly the islands of Perim and Zuraq can give the Houthis key points of control over the Red Sea and the Strait.

Published Sep 10, 2026 5:28 PM EDT
-(Photo by AFP via Getty Images) /
The Iranian-backed Houthi rebels have captured Mokha – a key Red Sea port in southwestern Yemen near the Bab al-Mandab (BAM) Strait. There are also reports they seized two islands located in the Red Sea shipping lanes . These moves against the Saudi Arabian-backed forces that previously held these areas could further cement the Houthi’s control over the narrow chokepoint to the Gulf of Aden, where the group has already imposed a blockade on Saudi oil exports .
The Houthi’s drive to control the BAM has been emboldened by the U.S. being stretched thin in its ongoing fight against Iran . Combined with Tehran’s control of the Strait of Hormuz , this threatens to add to the Islamic Republic’s command over the flow of oil from the Middle East. It is a maximum pressure campaign on the U.S. and global markets, something we have predicted for years. Amid all this activity, the per-barrel price of Brent Crude is well over the $100 mark now .
The port of Mokha. (Google Earth)
The rapid advance on Mokha was planned and backed by Iran, according to the leader of Saudi-backed forces that retreated from Mokha, which is about 50 miles north of the BAM. It took place as Tehran has taken a more belligerent stance in the region that has seen it reportedly damage U.S. aircraft in a recent attack on Jordan earlier this week and get closer to striking U.S. Navy warships with ballistic missiles.
“The Joint Forces have formed a command center south of the city of Mokha, following Houthi breakthroughs across various combat axes under heavy fire, in which the Houthis used various types of weapons,” Deputy Chairman of the Presidential Leadership Council (PLC), Lt. Gen. Tareq Saleh, said in his acknowledgment that his forces lost the port. The PLC was created in 2022 to represent the internationally recognized government of Yemen.
“The armed forces on the West Coast — the National Resistance, the Giants [Brigades], and the Homeland Shield — in addition to units of the Taiz axis west of the governorate, have paid a heavy price, martyrs and wounded, over the past days as they confronted the Houthi attack, which was planned by Iran, supported by it, and carried out with the participation of its various proxies/tools.”
“Thanks to God, our armed forces were able to repel an enemy combat formation a short time ago in the province of Taiz, forcing it to withdraw,” Houthi spokesman Brig. Gen. Yahya Saree proclaimed . “This was achieved by targeting it with a number of locally manufactured surface-to-air missiles.”
(Houthi Telegram channel)
Videos have emerged showing Houthi forces inside Mokha and its airport and a large amount of equipment being seized.
The people of the port city of Al-Mokha gave a warm reception to Yemeni armed forces fighters following the city's strategic liberation. pic.twitter.com/0XDrveJPxU — IRNA News Agency ☫ (@IrnaEnglish) September 10, 2026
The people of the port city of Al-Mokha gave a warm reception to Yemeni armed forces fighters following the city's strategic liberation. pic.twitter.com/0XDrveJPxU
⚡️BREAKING: The Houthis have announced a Cessation of Combat Operations along the Coast of Bab al-Mandab Strait following the Collapse of Pro-Saudi Forces The Core Military of the Houthis has entered the City of Mokha Additionally, all Islands Key to Controlling the Bab… pic.twitter.com/95HI4TJ6Bm — Iran Observer (@IranObserver0) September 10, 2026
⚡️BREAKING: The Houthis have announced a Cessation of Combat Operations along the Coast of Bab al-Mandab Strait following the Collapse of Pro-Saudi Forces The Core Military of the Houthis has entered the City of Mokha Additionally, all Islands Key to Controlling the Bab… pic.twitter.com/95HI4TJ6Bm
Houthi forces captured the key coastal city of Mokha overnight after Saudi/UAE backed forces retreated. Seen here, Houthi fighters pose with an abandoned M-ATV MRAP at the city’s critical seaport. pic.twitter.com/1WD6l08MVc — OSINTtechnical (@Osinttechnical) September 10, 2026
Houthi forces captured the key coastal city of Mokha overnight after Saudi/UAE backed forces retreated. Seen here, Houthi fighters pose with an abandoned M-ATV MRAP at the city’s critical seaport. pic.twitter.com/1WD6l08MVc
Houthi fighters were filmed on the runway of Mokha international airport after capturing the city. pic.twitter.com/56Rc4BwsNf — Open Source Intel (@Osint613) September 10, 2026
Houthi fighters were filmed on the runway of Mokha international airport after capturing the city. pic.twitter.com/56Rc4BwsNf
Holy score. This footage from Al Jazeera shows some of the equipment that was left behind for the Yemeni to capture in Mokha. https://t.co/yc0nwRlIse pic.twitter.com/Jn8VT571LY — Reno (@theRenoNara) September 10, 2026
Holy score. This footage from Al Jazeera shows some of the equipment that was left behind for the Yemeni to capture in Mokha. https://t.co/yc0nwRlIse pic.twitter.com/Jn8VT571LY
Even before the capture of Mokha, the rebel group held the BAM under threat with its array of drones and missiles, some of which it launch from deeper in Yemen. In fact, the group became the first to fire anti-ship ballistic missiles (ASBM) at vessels during its campaign against Red Sea shipping.
©2023, The International Institute for Strategic Studies, originally published on https://iiss.org/online-analysis/military-balance/2024/01/houthi-anti-ship-missile-systems-getting-better-all-the-time/(reproduced with permission) (International Institute of Strategic Studies)
Mokha, however, provides a potential new surveillance and launching point for the Houthis to deploy mines as well as aerial drones and uncrewed surface vessels (USVs) they can use to attack shipping. As we have reported previously , the rebel group pioneered the operational use of some of these weapons.
The Houthis “are determined to control the ports in order to use booby-trapped boats from areas close to shipping lanes,” Col. Abdul Basit Al-Baher, a Yemeni army officer and military analyst, told Arab News last month as the rebels were pushing closer to the port.
You can see video and images of a Houthi USV that struck the Greek-owned ship Tutor in the Red Sea in 2024 below.
Photos of Houthi kamikaze USV right before it struck Greek-owned cargo ship Tutor. The ship's guard were totally confused as to what they were observing. They couldn't even react before it hit the ship. https://t.co/ZwFlWnsFAR pic.twitter.com/8ORRrvZWH6 — Clash Report (@clashreport) June 17, 2024
Photos of Houthi kamikaze USV right before it struck Greek-owned cargo ship Tutor. The ship's guard were totally confused as to what they were observing. They couldn't even react before it hit the ship. https://t.co/ZwFlWnsFAR pic.twitter.com/8ORRrvZWH6
In addition to Mokha, the Houthis also reportedly captured two important islands that could also add to its control over shipping through the strait. However, TWZ cannot independently confirm this.
There are claims that the Houthis seized Perim Island , which sits right in the middle of the BAM. In 2021, satellite images we obtained showed completion of a new, approximately 6,150-foot-long runway on the island as well as hangars and other facilities. The installation was supposedly meant primarily to support drone operations and was built by the United Arab Emirates.
This strategically located island sits in the narrowest part of the BAM, less than two miles west of Yemen and about 13 miles east of Djibouti, giving the Houthis a commanding presence at the mouth of the Red Sea.
PHOTO © 2025 PLANET LABS INC. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED. REPRINTED BY PERMISSION)
(PHOTO © 2025 PLANET LABS INC. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED. REPRINTED BY PERMISSION)
Zuqar Island, which was also reportedly captured , sits in the middle of the Red Sea about 80 miles north of Perim Island. In the custody of the Yemeni government since 1998, it was being “used by government forces to track shipping traffic, monitor movements by Houthi rebels and stop weapons smuggling in the Red Sea,” according to The National .
Last year, images emerged of construction of a runway on the island.
This satellite image from 2025 shows the runway on Perim Island. (PHOTO © 2025 PLANET LABS INC. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED. REPRINTED BY PERMISSION)
It is unclear who built these island runway, though there have been indications that it could have been the United Arab Emirates once again.
A closer look at the new 2.1 km runway on Yemen’s 🇾🇪 Jabal Zuqar Island in the southern Red Sea shows a small apron with one completed aircraft hangar and another likely under construction, plus a taxiway leading to two military emplacements, likely to shelter aircraft or UAVs. https://t.co/cnphe6yCeO pic.twitter.com/iOwr7C6I91 — Rich Tedd 🛰 ✈️ (@AfriMEOSINT) October 20, 2025
A closer look at the new 2.1 km runway on Yemen’s 🇾🇪 Jabal Zuqar Island in the southern Red Sea shows a small apron with one completed aircraft hangar and another likely under construction, plus a taxiway leading to two military emplacements, likely to shelter aircraft or UAVs. https://t.co/cnphe6yCeO pic.twitter.com/iOwr7C6I91
Zuqar Island sits about 7 km east of the northbound shipping lane in the Red Sea. Control over these two islands could allow the Houthis to mirror the pattern Iran established in the Strait of Hormuz by directing traffic to pass through a narrow passage between Qeshm and Larak islands.
The Iranian transit scheme for the Strait of Hormuz. (Iranian government)
The conflict between Saudi Arabia and the Houthis grew out of a civil war in Yemen that erupted in 2014. It expanded a year later when a Saudi-led coalition joined forces with the government ousted by the Houthis and raged on until the parties reached a tenuous ceasefire in 2022. The Saudis held off on getting involved in the recent Red Sea conflict which saw the U.S. and coalition warships duking it out with the Houthis, and eventually led to a U.S.-led air campaign over Yemen. Tensions, however, reignited after that conflict ended when the Houthis joined the U.S.-Iran conflict on the side of their major supporter. In addition to the aforementioned blockade, the Houthis began striking Saudi refineries.
The Houthis already control the port of Hodeidah, about 100 miles to the north. Capturing Mokha and the two islands extends their reach even closer to the BAM.
In the wake of the Houthi blockade imposed in July, traffic in the BAM fell by 15% , according to Lloyd’s List Intelligence .
“ On average, 273 ships sailed through the chokepoint each week between 27 July and 23 August,” the organization reported. “The naval ban on Saudi Arabia came into effect on 20 July, and the weekly average in the run up date was 319. Still, traffic remains above volumes seen before the crisis in the Middle East Gulf that led to a flurry of activity in the Red Sea as Saudi oil was redirected to Yanbu.”
As we have explained in the past , Saudi Arabia has diverted millions of barrels of oil per day through pipelines to its Yanbu port on the Red Sea in an effort to minimize the energy shortages due to the hostilities near the Persian Gulf.
Saudi Arabia has increasingly sent oil to its port of Yanbu on the Red Sea. (Photo by Yasin Demirci/Anadolu via Getty Images) Anadolu
The biggest impact of the blockade, Lloyd’s List Intelligence notes, is that it is driving up the cost to deliver oil by forcing traffic north through the Suez Canal, “extending voyage times and tying up capacity. In the Middle East, rising use of Hormuz shuttle tankers and multiple STS transfers is creating delays and increasing vessel utilization. Combined, these rising inefficiencies have led to the third VLCC spot-rate spike since the beginning of the crisis in the Middle East Gulf.”
The Houthi strikes on Saudi’s oil infrastructure, including a Houthi missile and drone attack against the Saudi Aramco refinery at Jazan on the Red Sea earlier this week , add a further dilemma for Riyadh, making it harder to get its product to points of shipment.
Video of of the aftermath of those strikes, which you can see below, emerged on social media.
Following Houthi strikes, fires can be seen raging at the Jizan oil refinery in Saudi Arabia. pic.twitter.com/tAqOPlsmvS — OSINTdefender (@sentdefender) September 8, 2026
Following Houthi strikes, fires can be seen raging at the Jizan oil refinery in Saudi Arabia. pic.twitter.com/tAqOPlsmvS
All this is raising the specter of the U.S. having to get as involved as it did during the previous Houthi campaign against shipping that ended last September, which could pull resources away from Iranian-focused operations, if supporting such an operation is even possible at all at this point. The Navy, and other key elements of the U.S. military, is overstretched and worn down by continuous deployments for many months leading up to Venezuela and then Iran, and now six months after Operation Epic Fury.
U.S. forces in the Persian Gulf are under increasing pressure as tensions with Iran continue to simmer. On Tuesday, several U.S. Air Force jets were damaged in an Iranian missile barrage on Muwaffaq Salti Air Base in Jordan, according to CBS News . An A-10 Thunderbolt II close support jet lost a wing and about eight F-15E Strike Eagle multi-role fighters were slightly damaged and returned to service, the network noted.
There is also a report that Acting Navy Secretary Hung Cao said Iranian forces “blew the hell out of Bahrain” where the U.S. military has a number of key facilities, including the headquarters of the U.S. Fifth Fleet. The country has been the subject of frequent Iranian barrages since the U.S. and Israel first attacked on Feb. 28 .
Cao’s assessment matches what we have seen and heard prior to his comments and raises anew the question of whether the U.S. will return to Bahrain and other bases in the region heavily attacked by Iran.
In an exclusive interview, Acting Navy Secretary Hung Cao told me that Iranian forces "blew the hell out of Bahrain." While open-source analyses have long indicated that the U.S. Fifth Fleet Headquarters at Naval Support Activity Bahrain sustained extensive damage in the early… — Ryan Morgan (@R_S_Morgan) September 10, 2026
In an exclusive interview, Acting Navy Secretary Hung Cao told me that Iranian forces "blew the hell out of Bahrain." While open-source analyses have long indicated that the U.S. Fifth Fleet Headquarters at Naval Support Activity Bahrain sustained extensive damage in the early…
On the sea, Iranian missiles are getting closer to hitting U.S. Navy warships, the Wall Street Journal reported .
“At least three times in the past week, Iranian forces have launched missiles at American warships, including an aircraft carrier, taking direct aim at the U.S. Navy in a way it hasn’t done since the start of the war,” the newspaper noted. “The attempted strikes on warships have led to much closer calls than previous attempts, with Iran using maneuverable warheads, people familiar with the attacks said.”
Amid this activity, traffic through the Strait remains suppressed.
“Vessel transits via the Strait of Hormuz fell on Wednesday to seven from 12 the previous day, preliminary ship-tracking data showed on Thursday, with levels also below the 10-day average of 14,” Reuters reported . “Out of these seven ships, four vessels exited and three entered, according to the data.”
However, an exact figure is hard to come by. Some vessels could be sailing through the waterway with their transponders turned off and would not be counted toward the totals, the outlet added.
Vessels transit the Hormuz Strait off the coast of Iran’s southern port city of Bandar Abbas on September 7, 2026. (Photo by ATTA KENARE / AFP) ATTA KENARE
As it is, oil prices are skyrocketing. As of noon Thursday, the per barrel price of Brent Crude exceeded $107, the highest price since July when it fell to just over $77 per barrel, according to OilPrice.com .
It will take some time before we get a better picture of how the Houthi seizure of the port of Mokha, and possibly Perim and Zuqar islands, will affect the global economy due to rising oil prices, either through reduced supply, increased cost of delivery or some combination of the two. With no end in sight to the U.S. conflict with Iran that helped to drive these actions, the Yemeni rebel group has incentives to inflict economic pain wherever it can.
Contact the author: howard@twz.com
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发布于美国东部时间2026年9月10日下午5:28
(图片来源:法新社/盖蒂图片社)
伊朗支持的胡塞武装已占领摩卡——也门西南部靠近曼德海峡的红海重要港口。另有报道称,他们还占领了位于红海航道上的两座岛屿。这些针对此前控制这些地区的沙特阿拉伯支持的武装力量的行动,可能进一步巩固胡塞武装对亚丁湾这一狭窄咽喉要道的控制。胡塞武装此前已对沙特石油出口实施封锁。
由于美国在与伊朗的持续冲突中疲于奔命,胡塞武装控制布伦特-阿布哈兹-姆巴赫地区的野心更加膨胀。再加上德黑兰控制着霍尔木兹海峡,这有可能进一步加强伊朗对中东石油运输的控制。这是一场针对美国和全球市场的极限施压行动,我们多年来一直预测到这种情况。在这一切的背景下,布伦特原油价格目前已远超每桶100美元。
摩卡港。(谷歌地球)
据从摩卡撤退的沙特支持部队指挥官称,对摩卡的快速推进是由伊朗策划和支持的。摩卡位于巴哈马德半岛以北约50英里处。与此同时,德黑兰在该地区采取了更为强硬的立场,据报道,伊朗在本周早些时候袭击约旦的行动中损坏了美国飞机,并且越来越倾向于使用弹道导弹袭击美国海军军舰。
总统领导委员会副主席塔里克·萨利赫中将承认其部队失去了摩卡港,并表示:“在胡塞武装猛烈炮火下,联合部队在多个作战方向上取得突破,使用了多种武器。随后,联合部队在摩卡市南部建立了一个指挥中心。”总统领导委员会成立于2022年,代表国际社会公认的也门政府。
“过去几天,西海岸的武装力量——民族抵抗军、巨人旅和国土之盾——以及塔伊兹省西部的部队,在对抗胡塞武装的进攻时付出了沉重的代价,伤亡惨重。胡塞武装的进攻是由伊朗策划、支持,并由其各种代理人/工具参与实施的。”
胡塞武装发言人叶海亚·萨雷准将宣称:“感谢真主,我们的武装部队不久前在塔伊兹省击退了一支敌军作战部队,迫使其撤退。我们用多枚国产地对空导弹成功击退了敌军。”
(胡塞武装电报频道)
视频显示,胡塞武装人员进入摩卡市及其机场,并缴获了大量装备。
在也门港口城市摩卡获得战略解放后,当地民众热情欢迎了也门武装部队战士。 pic.twitter.com/0XDrveJPxU — 伊朗伊斯兰共和国通讯社 ☫ (@IrnaEnglish) 2026年9月10日
在也门港口城市摩卡获得战略解放后,当地民众热情欢迎了也门武装部队战士。 pic.twitter.com/0XDrveJPxU
⚡️突发:胡塞武装宣布,在亲沙特部队溃败后,停止在曼德海峡沿岸的作战行动。胡塞武装的核心部队已进入摩卡市。此外,控制曼德海峡的关键岛屿也已全部撤离…… pic.twitter.com/95HI4TJ6Bm — Iran Observer (@IranObserver0) September 10, 2026
突发:胡塞武装宣布,在亲沙特部队溃败后,停止在曼德海峡沿岸的作战行动。胡塞武装的核心部队已进入摩卡市。此外,控制曼德海峡的关键岛屿也已全部撤离…… pic.twitter.com/95HI4TJ6Bm
胡塞武装在沙特/阿联酋支持的部队撤退后,连夜占领了重要的沿海城市摩卡。图中,胡塞武装人员在该市重要的海港与一辆被遗弃的M-ATV防地雷反伏击车合影。pic.twitter.com/1WD6l08MVc — OSINTtechnical (@Osinttechnical) September 10, 2026
胡塞武装在沙特/阿联酋支持的部队撤退后,连夜占领了重要的沿海城市摩卡。图中,胡塞武装人员在该市重要的海港与一辆被遗弃的M-ATV防地雷反伏击车合影。pic.twitter.com/1WD6l08MVc
胡塞武装人员在占领摩卡市后,被拍到出现在摩卡国际机场的跑道上。pic.twitter.com/56Rc4BwsNf — Open Source Intel (@Osint613) September 10, 2026
胡塞武装人员在攻占摩卡市后,出现在摩卡国际机场的跑道上。pic.twitter.com/56Rc4BwsNf
我的天!半岛电视台的这段视频展示了也门军队在摩卡缴获的部分装备。https://t.co/yc0nwRlIse pic.twitter.com/Jn8VT571LY — Reno (@theRenoNara) September 10, 2026
我的天!半岛电视台的这段视频展示了也门军队在摩卡缴获的部分装备。https://t.co/yc0nwRlIse pic.twitter.com/Jn8VT571LY
早在攻占摩卡之前,反叛组织就凭借其无人机和导弹阵列对也门武装力量(BAM)构成威胁,其中一些导弹是从也门境内更深处发射的。事实上,该组织在针对红海航运的行动中,率先向船只发射了反舰弹道导弹(ASBM)。
©2023,国际战略研究所,原文发表于 https://iiss.org/online-analysis/military-balance/2024/01/houthi-anti-ship-missile-systems-getting-better-all-the-time/(经许可转载)(国际战略研究所)
然而,摩卡港可能成为胡塞武装部署水雷、无人机和无人水面艇(USV)的新监视和发射点,他们可以利用这些武器袭击船只。正如我们之前报道的那样,该反叛组织率先将其中一些武器投入实战。
也门军官兼军事分析家阿卜杜勒·巴斯特·巴赫尔上校上个月告诉《阿拉伯新闻报》,胡塞武装“决心控制港口,以便从靠近航道的地区使用装有诡雷的船只”,当时叛军正向港口推进。
下面可以看到2024年胡塞武装的无人水面艇在红海撞击希腊船只“Tutor”的视频和图片。
胡塞武装的无人水面艇(USV)撞击希腊货船“Tutor”号前的照片。船上的警卫完全不知所措,甚至来不及做出反应。https://t.co/ZwFlWnsFAR pic.twitter.com/8ORRrvZWH6 — Clash Report (@clashreport) June 17, 2024
胡塞武装的无人水面艇(USV)撞击希腊货船“Tutor”号前的照片。船上的警卫完全不知所措,甚至来不及做出反应。https://t.co/ZwFlWnsFAR pic.twitter.com/8ORRrvZWH6
除摩卡外,据报道胡塞武装还占领了两座重要岛屿,这可能进一步加强其对海峡航运的控制。然而,TWZ无法独立证实这一消息。
有说法称胡塞武装占领了位于巴哈马湾中央的佩里姆岛。2021年,我们获得的卫星图像显示,岛上新建了一条约6150英尺长的跑道,以及机库和其他设施。据称,该设施主要用于支持无人机作业,由阿拉伯联合酋长国建造。
这个战略位置优越的岛屿位于黑海最狭窄的部分,距离也门以西不到两英里,距离吉布提以东约 13 英里,使胡塞武装在红海入口处拥有强大的存在。
照片 © 2025 PLANET LABS INC. 保留所有权利。(经许可转载)
(图片版权所有 © 2025 PLANET LABS INC. 保留所有权利。经许可转载)
据报道,祖卡尔岛也被占领,该岛位于红海中央,在佩里姆岛以北约 80 英里处。据《国家报》报道,自 1998 年以来,该岛一直由也门政府控制,政府军“利用该岛追踪航运交通、监视胡塞武装的动向并阻止红海的武器走私”。
去年,有照片显示该岛正在修建一条跑道。
这张摄于2025年的卫星图像显示了佩里姆岛的跑道。(图片© 2025 PLANET LABS INC. 保留所有权利。经许可转载)
目前尚不清楚是谁建造了这些岛屿跑道,但有迹象表明,这可能又是阿拉伯联合酋长国建造的。
近距离观察也门南部红海杰巴尔祖卡尔岛上新建的2.1公里跑道,可以看到一个小型停机坪,上面有一个已完工的飞机库,另一个可能正在建设中,此外还有一条滑行道通往两个军事阵地,可能用于停放飞机或无人机。https://t.co/cnphe6yCeO pic.twitter.com/iOwr7C6I91 — Rich Tedd 🛰 ✈️ (@AfriMEOSINT) October 20, 2025
近距离观察也门南部红海杰巴尔祖卡尔岛上新建的2.1公里跑道,可以看到一个小型停机坪,上面有一个已完工的飞机库,另一个可能正在建设中,此外还有一条滑行道通往两个军事阵地,很可能是用来停放飞机或无人机的。https://t.co/cnphe6yCeO pic.twitter.com/iOwr7C6I91
祖卡尔岛位于红海北向航道以东约7公里处。控制这两个岛屿可能使胡塞武装效仿伊朗在霍尔木兹海峡的做法,引导船只通过格什姆岛和拉拉克岛之间的狭窄水道。
伊朗政府制定的霍尔木兹海峡过境方案。
沙特阿拉伯与胡塞武装之间的冲突源于2014年也门爆发的内战。一年后,沙特领导的联军与被胡塞武装推翻的也门政府结盟,冲突进一步扩大,直至2022年各方达成脆弱的停火协议。在近期红海冲突中,美国及其盟军军舰与胡塞武装交战,最终导致美国领导的对也门空袭行动。沙特并未介入。然而,红海冲突结束后,胡塞武装加入其主要支持者——美国和伊朗之间的冲突,紧张局势再次升温。除了上述封锁之外,胡塞武装还开始袭击沙特的炼油厂。
胡塞武装已经控制了位于北部约100英里处的荷台达港。占领摩卡和这两个岛屿将使他们的控制范围进一步扩大到更靠近巴哈马群岛的地方。
据劳氏日报情报显示,自7月份胡塞武装实施封锁以来,BAM的交通量下降了15%。
该组织报告称:“7月27日至8月23日期间,平均每周有273艘船只通过该咽喉要道。对沙特阿拉伯的海上禁令于7月20日生效,在此之前的一周,平均每周有319艘船只通过该咽喉要道。尽管如此,目前的交通流量仍然高于中东海湾危机爆发前的水平。当时,由于沙特石油被重新输送至延布,红海的航运活动激增。”
正如我们过去所解释的那样,沙特阿拉伯每天通过管道将数百万桶石油输送到红海沿岸的延布港,以尽量减少波斯湾附近敌对行动造成的能源短缺。
沙特阿拉伯越来越多地向其位于红海沿岸的延布港输送石油。(图片来源:Yasin Demirci/Anadolu via Getty Images)阿纳多卢通讯社
劳氏日报情报指出,封锁的最大影响在于,它迫使石油运输改道苏伊士运河,从而推高了石油运输成本,“延长了航程时间并占用了运力”。在中东,霍尔木兹穿梭油轮和多次岸对岸转运的使用增加,造成了延误并提高了船舶利用率。这些效率低下因素共同导致了自中东海湾危机爆发以来,超大型油轮(VLCC)即期运价的第三次飙升。
胡塞武装对沙特石油基础设施的袭击,包括本周早些时候胡塞武装对红海吉赞的沙特阿美炼油厂发动的导弹和无人机袭击,给利雅得带来了更大的困境,使其产品更难运往装运点。
下面这段视频记录了这些罢工事件的后果,并在社交媒体上流传开来。
胡塞武装发动袭击后,沙特阿拉伯吉赞炼油厂燃起熊熊大火。pic.twitter.com/tAqOPlsmvS — OSINTdefender (@sentdefender) September 8, 2026
胡塞武装发动袭击后,沙特阿拉伯吉赞炼油厂燃起熊熊大火。pic.twitter.com/tAqOPlsmvS
这一切都让人担忧,美国可能不得不像去年9月结束的胡塞武装反航运行动那样深度介入,这可能会分散其在伊朗行动中的资源——即便目前支持此类行动是否可行。在委内瑞拉和伊朗行动之前以及“史诗狂怒行动”结束六个月后,美国海军和其他关键军事力量已经疲于奔命,疲于应对持续数月的部署任务。
随着美伊紧张局势持续升温,驻波斯湾美军面临的压力日益增大。据哥伦比亚广播公司新闻报道,周二,伊朗导弹袭击约旦穆瓦法克萨尔蒂空军基地,导致数架美国空军战机受损。该新闻网指出,一架A-10“雷电II”近距离支援战机机翼受损,约8架F-15E“攻击鹰”多用途战斗机轻微受损,但已恢复服役。
另有报道称,美国海军代理部长洪曹表示,伊朗军队“把巴林炸得稀巴烂”,而美国在巴林拥有众多重要军事设施,包括美国第五舰队的总部。自2月28日美国和以色列首次发动袭击以来,巴林一直是伊朗频繁炮击的目标。
曹的评估与我们在他发表评论之前所看到和听到的情况相符,并再次引发了美国是否会重返巴林以及该地区其他遭受伊朗猛烈攻击的基地的问题。
在一次独家专访中,代理海军部长洪曹告诉我,伊朗军队“把巴林炸得稀巴烂”。尽管开源分析早已表明,美国第五舰队位于巴林海军支援基地的总部在战争初期遭受了严重破坏……——瑞安·摩根 (@R_S_Morgan) 2026年9月10日
在一次独家专访中,代理海军部长洪曹告诉我,伊朗军队“把巴林炸得稀巴烂”。尽管公开来源的分析早已表明,美国第五舰队位于巴林海军支援基地的总部在战争初期遭受了严重破坏……
据《华尔街日报》报道,伊朗导弹在海上越来越接近击中美国海军军舰。
该报指出,“过去一周,伊朗军队至少三次向美国军舰(包括一艘航空母舰)发射导弹,直接瞄准美国海军,这是自战争开始以来伊朗从未采取过的行动。” “知情人士称,这些对军舰的袭击比以往的尝试更加惊险,伊朗使用了可机动弹头。”
在此背景下,海峡的交通仍然受到抑制。
路透社报道称:“初步船舶追踪数据显示,周三通过霍尔木兹海峡的船舶数量从前一天的12艘降至7艘,也低于过去10天的平均水平14艘。数据显示,在这7艘船舶中,4艘驶出海峡,3艘驶入。”
然而,确切数字很难获得。该媒体补充说,有些船只可能在航道上航行时关闭了应答器,因此不会被计入总数。
2026年9月7日,船只通过伊朗南部港口城市阿巴斯港附近的霍尔木兹海峡。(图片来源:ATTA KENARE / 法新社)
目前,油价正在飙升。据OilPrice.com网站报道,截至周四中午,布伦特原油价格已超过每桶107美元,这是自7月份以来的最高价格,当时油价跌至每桶略高于77美元。
胡塞武装占领摩卡港,以及可能还有佩里姆岛和祖卡尔岛,会对全球经济造成怎样的影响,还需要一段时间才能明朗。油价上涨可能导致供应减少、运输成本增加,或两者兼而有之。由于美伊冲突仍未见结束迹象,而这场冲突正是促成胡塞武装行动的原因之一,也门反叛组织有动机尽可能地给其他国家造成经济损失。
联系作者:howard@twz.com
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