UN warns El Nino could be ‘off the charts’, strongest in decades

The World Meteorological Organization says forecasts show nearly 100 percent likelihood that El Nino will continue through February.

World Meteorological Organization (WMO) Secretary-General Celeste Saulo (L) and WMO Chief of climate prediction section Wilfran Moufouma-Okia attend a press conference on El Nino update, in Geneva on September 3, 2026 [Fabrice Coffrini/AFP]

El Nino is set to intensify to exceptional levels in the coming months and persist into early 2027, the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) has warned, raising the prospect of worsening droughts, floods and extreme heat across the globe.

The United Nations weather agency said on Thursday forecasts show a nearly 100 percent likelihood that El Nino will continue through February, the strongest level of certainty it has ever expressed in an El Nino/La Nina update.

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The naturally occurring weather phenomenon warms surface temperatures in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean, bringing worldwide changes in winds, pressure and rainfall patterns.

“If this trajectory continues, it may be stronger than anything since our monitoring began – so literally off the charts we have used for the past four decades,” WMO chief Celeste Saulo told reporters in Geneva, Switzerland. El Nino will peak towards the end of this year, though its knock-on impacts for the climate will continue well into 2027, said the WMO.

Heat in the oceans releases more slowly into the atmosphere, pushing up global temperatures the following year.

The powerful 2023-24 El Nino contributed to 2024 being the warmest year on record, and “we should not be surprised if this record is broken”, Saulo said.

“El Nino is firmly established and will intensify into a very strong event in the coming months, with big impacts on rainfall and temperature patterns and associated risks of floods, drought and extreme heat,” the WMO said.

El Nino is a natural phenomenon and is not caused by climate change. But scientists expect it will exacerbate the heat of a planet already warming as a result of burning fossil fuels, while amping up weather extremes.

“El Nino is being supersized before our eyes,” said UN chief Antonio Guterres. “The science leaves no room for doubt: the planet is in uncharted waters, and those waters are heating up. Sea surface temperatures are rising, temperatures keep climbing, and the world is in the danger zone of extreme weather.

“The race now is between rising risks and our commitment to take climate action and protect people. We must win that race.”

“This exceptional El Nino … has the potential to deliver a massive blow to communities and economies across the world,” Saulo said.

“We are already seeing disruption and devastation from droughts and floods, and we expect these impacts to increase as El Nino intensifies.”

She put disaster management authorities and climate-sensitive sectors like agriculture, healthcare, energy and water on notice, saying there was “no time to lose” in getting ready.

El Nino typically takes place every two to seven years and lasts nine months to a year.

Conditions oscillate between El Nino and its opposite La Nina, with neutral conditions in between.

“Fuelled by exceptionally warm ocean conditions across the tropical Pacific, El Nino is expected to strengthen further during the coming months to a very strong intensity,” the WMO said.

The UN agency classifies El Nino events as weak, moderate, strong or very strong – meaning it is set to reach the highest level out of four.

The WMO said there was an “exceptionally high likelihood of nearly 100 percent” that El Nino will continue through to February.

El Nino can reshape weather and climate patterns thousands of kilometres away from the tropical Pacific.

Every El Nino is different, but major events often follow familiar patterns. This includes drought across parts of the Amazon, Indonesia and Australia, disrupted monsoons in India and shifting rainfall throughout the tropics.

For September-November, WMO forecasts indicate an increased likelihood of above-normal temperatures “across almost all land areas”, alongside rainfall patterns showing a “pronounced and classic atmospheric response to the strong Pacific El Nino”, the weather agency said.

The index, which measures sea surface temperature anomalies in the central eastern equatorial Pacific, has strengthened from an average 1.5C (2.7F) above normal between May and July.

Weekly values between late July and mid-August ranged from 2.2C to 2.6C (4F to 4.7F) above average, indicating continued El Nino intensification.

In some areas, subsurface ocean temperatures were more than 8C (14.4F) above average during July and early August.

世界气象组织表示，预测显示厄尔尼诺现象持续到2月份的可能性接近100%。

世界气象组织（WMO）秘书长塞莱斯特·萨乌洛（左）和WMO气候预测部门负责人威尔弗兰·穆福马-奥基亚于2026年9月3日在日内瓦出席厄尔尼诺现象最新进展新闻发布会。[Fabrice Coffrini/AFP]

世界气象组织（WMO）警告称，厄尔尼诺现象将在未来几个月内加剧至异常水平，并持续到 2027 年初，这增加了全球范围内干旱、洪水和极端高温加剧的可能性。

联合国气象机构周四表示，预测显示厄尔尼诺现象持续到2月份的可能性接近100%，这是该机构在厄尔尼诺/拉尼娜现象更新中表达过的最强烈的确定性。

列表 1/3：拉拉风暴在逼近夏威夷时增强为一级飓风

（共3条）各国政府严阵以待，应对厄尔尼诺现象对全球极端天气造成的历史性影响

巴拿马运河将在厄尔尼诺极端天气到来之前限制航运（共3条记录，此为第3条）

这种自然发生的天气现象会使中太平洋和东太平洋赤道海域的表面温度升高，从而给全球带来风、气压和降雨模式的变化。

世界气象组织总干事塞莱斯特·萨乌洛在瑞士日内瓦对记者表示：“如果这种趋势持续下去，其强度可能会超过我们开始监测以来的任何一次——简直超出了我们过去四十年来使用的任何图表。”世界气象组织称，厄尔尼诺现象将在今年年底达到峰值，但其对气候的连锁影响将持续到2027年。

海洋中的热量释放到大气中的速度较慢，导致第二年全球气温升高。

萨乌洛表示，2023-24 年强大的厄尔尼诺现象导致 2024 年成为有记录以来最温暖的一年，“如果这个纪录被打破，我们也不应该感到惊讶”。

世界气象组织表示：“厄尔尼诺现象已经稳固形成，并将在未来几个月内加剧，成为非常强烈的现象，对降雨和气温模式以及相关的洪水、干旱和极端高温风险产生重大影响。”

厄尔尼诺现象是一种自然现象，并非由气候变化引起。但科学家预计，它会加剧因化石燃料燃烧而导致的全球变暖，同时还会加剧极端天气事件的发生。

联合国秘书长安东尼奥·古特雷斯表示：“厄尔尼诺现象正在我们眼前急剧加剧。科学已经无可辩驳地证明：地球正处于前所未有的境地，而且这片海域正在升温。海面温度正在上升，气温持续攀升，世界正处于极端天气的危险区域。”

“现在的竞赛是在不断上升的风险和我们采取气候行动、保护人民的承诺之间展开的。我们必须赢得这场竞赛。”

萨乌洛表示：“这次异常的厄尔尼诺现象……有可能对世界各地的社区和经济造成巨大打击。”

“我们已经看到干旱和洪水造成的破坏和灾难，而且随着厄尔尼诺现象的加剧，我们预计这些影响还会增加。”

她向灾害管理部门和农业、医疗保健、能源和水资源等对气候敏感的部门发出警告，称“没有时间可以浪费”，必须做好准备。

厄尔尼诺现象通常每两到七年发生一次，持续九个月到一年。

世界气候状况在厄尔尼诺现象和拉尼娜现象之间交替变化，中间则处于中性状态。

世界气象组织表示：“受热带太平洋异常温暖的海洋条件影响，厄尔尼诺现象预计将在未来几个月进一步增强，强度将非常强。”

联合国机构将厄尔尼诺现象分为弱、中等、强或非常强——这意味着它可能会达到最高级别。

世界气象组织表示，厄尔尼诺现象持续到2月份的可能性“极高，接近100%”。

厄尔尼诺现象可以改变距离热带太平洋数千公里之外的天气和气候模式。

每次厄尔尼诺现象都不尽相同，但重大事件往往遵循着相似的模式。这包括亚马逊、印度尼西亚和澳大利亚部分地区的干旱，印度季风的紊乱以及整个热带地区降雨模式的改变。

世界气象组织预测，9月至11月期间，“几乎所有陆地地区”气温高于正常水平的可能性增加，同时降雨模式显示出“对强烈的太平洋厄尔尼诺现象的明显而典型的大气响应”。

该指数衡量中东太平洋赤道海域的海表温度异常情况，5 月至 7 月期间，该指数平均比正常水平高出 1.5 摄氏度（2.7 华氏度）。

7 月下旬至 8 月中旬的每周气温比平均气温高出 2.2 摄氏度至 2.6 摄氏度（4 华氏度至 4.7 华氏度），表明厄尔尼诺现象持续增强。

在某些地区，7 月和 8 月初的次表层海洋温度比平均水平高出 8 摄氏度（14.4 华氏度）以上。