The Bab al-Mandeb Strait, a lifeline for the global economy, is in jeopardy

Khaled Ziad/AFP/Getty Images

A narrow waterway located at the mouth of the Red Sea between Yemen and Djibouti has provided an escape hatch for a sizeable chunk of the Middle East’s oil. That lifeline is now looking increasingly shaky.

For weeks, Yemen’s Iran-backed Houthi rebels have threatened shipping in the Bab al-Mandeb strait, attempting to open a new front in the war between Tehran and Washington, now in its seventh month.

In the past 48 hours, the Houthis have dramatically tightened their grip on the shipping route, capturing both the port city of Mocha and - according to Yemeni government sources - the strategic Perim Island in the middle of the maritime chokepoint.

The strait has long been a vital artery of global trade, but has become significantly more important since the US-Iran war effectively shuttered the nearby Strait of Hormuz.

In recent months, Saudi Arabia has used it to export millions of barrels of its oil. Without the Bab al-Mandeb strait, less oil can exit the region. It will also need to take much longer routes, fueling inflation by adding delays and costs onto already-elevated shipping rates .

“The Bab al-Mandeb had been a lifeline. Losing that lifeline has been a wake-up call for the (oil) market of how unsustainable the situation now is,” Richard Bronze, co-founder of Energy Aspects, told CNN.

Before the war, about 20 million barrels of oil transited the Strait of Hormuz each day, representing about a fifth of the world’s supply. Once that waterway closed, Saudi Arabia began re-routing crude along its East-to-West pipeline and unloading barrels at the Red Sea port of Yanbu.

At its peak, around 4.5 million barrels of crude per day were exported from Yanbu, with the bulk – about 3 million barrels per day – exiting via Bab al-Mandeb, according to Bronze.

Saudi crude flows through Bab al-Mandeb “collapsed” to about 400,000 barrels per day in August owing to the Houthi threat and are now even lower, said Bronze.

Abdulnasser Alseddik/AP/File

To avoid the strait, many oil cargoes must take a far longer and more circuitous route to reach Asia, up via the Suez Canal into the Mediterranean, down the western coast of Africa and around its base and then across the Indian ocean – an epic voyage adding about a month’s worth of transit time and pushing up freight costs.

“We’ve seen a lot of refineries in Asia going out and searching for alternatives, so they’re bidding up oil cargoes in other regions, and that is the big driver of why oil prices have been rising so sharply,” Bronze said.

News that the Houthis had captured strategic Red Sea locations helped send oil prices rocketing on Thursday. Brent crude, the global oil benchmark, and WTI, the US benchmark, both rose more than 7% to hit $108 and $103 a barrel, respectively — their highest levels since May.

Johannes Rauball, senior crude analyst at Kpler, said that a confluence of factors – Red Sea shipping disruptions, oil production cuts by Saudi Arabia and Ukrainian strikes on Russian energy infrastructure – had pushed global oil prices past $100 a barrel.

“With no quick resolution in sight and these disruptions set to persist, refiners are increasingly being pushed to secure additional crude, which is pushing crude prices higher,” he told CNN.

Crude is also used to make diesel, which is known as the workhorse fuel for the global economy as it powers trucks, tractors, freight trains and other commercial vehicles. Diesel prices in the United States are up by more than 50% since the start of the war and, on Friday, topped $6 a gallon for the first time, according to data from AAA.

Energy prices are a key driver of broader inflation, which has ticked up in major economies in recent months – raising the specter of interest rate hikes that would, in turn, feed into higher borrowing costs for consumers.

Shipping companies are well-practised in avoiding the Red Sea route. however.

In late 2023, the Houthis began attacking commercial vessels passing through the Bab al-Mandeb strait in retaliation for Israel’s war in Gaza. The attacks prompted shipping companies to use the longer route, adding weeks onto journeys and forcing them to spend more on fuel, insurance and seafarers’ wages.

Since then, Peter Sand, chief analyst at freight data firm Xeneta, estimates that the number of vessel transits through Bab al-Mandeb has fallen between 60% and 70%. Transits have also fallen by 46% in the past couple of days following the flare in fighting.

But he does not expect transits to fall to zero, noting that shipping firms are used to operating in high-risk environments.

Still, he said, “every ship going through… represents a potential target.”

Nic Robertson and Mostafa Salem contributed reporting.

Khaled Ziad/AFP/Getty Images

位于也门和吉布提之间红海入海口的一条狭窄水道，曾为中东相当一部分石油提供了一条出路。如今，这条生命线正变得越来越岌岌可危。

数周以来，也门受伊朗支持的胡塞武装一直威胁曼德海峡的航运，试图在德黑兰和华盛顿之间这场已经持续七个月的战争中开辟新的战线。

在过去的 48 小时内，胡塞武装大幅加强了对航运路线的控制，占领了港口城市摩卡，并且——据也门政府消息人士称——占领了位于海上咽喉要道中心的战略要地佩里姆岛。

这条海峡长期以来一直是全球贸易的重要动脉，但自从美伊战争有效地关闭了附近的霍尔木兹海峡以来，它的重要性就显著增加。

近几个月来，沙特阿拉伯一直利用曼德海峡出口数百万桶石油。如果没有曼德海峡，该地区的石油出口量将减少。此外，石油运输也将需要绕行更长的路线，这将加剧本已高企的航运成本，增加延误和额外费用，从而推高通货膨胀。

“曼德海峡曾是一条生命线。失去这条生命线给（石油）市场敲响了警钟，让他们意识到目前的状况是多么不可持续，”能源咨询公司 Energy Aspects 的联合创始人理查德·布朗兹告诉 CNN。

战前，每天约有2000万桶石油经由霍尔木兹海峡运输，约占世界石油供应量的五分之一。霍尔木兹海峡关闭后，沙特阿拉伯开始改道其东西向输油管道，并在红海港口延布卸载原油。

据 Bronze 称，在鼎盛时期，延布每天出口约 450 万桶原油，其中大部分（约 300 万桶/天）经由曼德海峡出口。

布朗兹表示，由于胡塞武装的威胁，8 月份沙特原油经曼德海峡的流量“暴跌”至每天约 40 万桶，现在甚至更低。

阿卜杜勒纳赛尔·阿尔塞迪克/美联社/档案照片

为了避开海峡，许多石油货物必须走更长、更迂回的路线才能到达亚洲，先经苏伊士运河进入地中海，再沿着非洲西海岸绕过其底部，然后横渡印度洋——这是一段漫长的航程，增加了大约一个月的运输时间，并推高了货运成本。

布朗兹表示：“我们看到亚洲很多炼油厂都在寻找替代能源，因此他们抬高了其他地区的石油价格，这就是油价大幅上涨的主要原因。”

胡塞武装占领红海战略要地的消息推动油价周四飙升。全球原油基准布伦特原油和美国基准WTI原油均上涨超过7%，分别达到每桶108美元和103美元，创下5月以来的最高水平。

Kpler 高级原油分析师 Johannes Rauball 表示，红海航运中断、沙特阿拉伯减产以及乌克兰袭击俄罗斯能源基础设施等多种因素共同推动全球油价突破每桶 100 美元。

“由于短期内无法解决问题，而且这些干扰还将持续下去，炼油商越来越被迫获取更多原油，这推高了原油价格，”他告诉 CNN。

原油也用于生产柴油，柴油是全球经济的“主力燃料”，为卡车、拖拉机、货运列车和其他商用车辆提供动力。据美国汽车协会（AAA）的数据显示，自战争爆发以来，美国柴油价格已上涨超过50%，并在上周五首次突破每加仑6美元大关。

能源价格是整体通胀的主要驱动因素，近几个月来，主要经济体的通胀有所上升——这引发了人们对加息的担忧，而加息反过来又会推高消费者的借贷成本。

然而，航运公司在避开红海航线方面经验丰富。

2023年末，胡塞武装开始袭击途经曼德海峡的商船，以报复以色列在加沙的战争。这些袭击迫使航运公司改走更长的航线，导致航程延长数周，并增加了燃油、保险和海员工资方面的支出。

自那以后，货运数据公司Xeneta的首席分析师彼得·桑德估计，途经曼德海峡的船舶通行数量下降了60%至70%。在冲突升级后的这几天里，船舶通行数量也下降了46%。

但他预计过境运输量不会降至零，并指出航运公司习惯于在高风险环境中运营。

但他表示，“每艘经过的船只……都代表着一个潜在的目标。”

尼克·罗伯逊和穆斯塔法·萨利姆对报道亦有贡献。