Can the Houthis close the Red Sea after seizing the Yemen coast?

Some observers see a force that has improved impressively in the past years, but others doubt Houthis can sustain wins.

A frame grab from AFPTV video on September 9, 2026, shows Yemeni government forces firing a machine gun during clashes with Houthi fighters west of Taiz province [AFP]

Houthi forces have captured the whole of Yemen’s Red Sea coastline, reaching all the way to the critically important Bab al-Mandeb shipping gateway, as the group’s rapid offensive continued on Friday.

On Thursday, the Houthis seized the port city of Mocha , dealing a heavy blow to the Yemeni government backed by neighbouring Saudi Arabia.

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list 3 of 4 Houthis advance along Yemen’s southern Red Sea coast

list 4 of 4 Saudi political analyst says ‘No prolonged war with the Houthis’

Analysts are calling the Iran-backed Houthi group’s victories the most significant regional development since the US and Israel declared war on Iran in February.

The offensives could be particularly damaging for Saudi Arabia and its oil exports. The Houthis, who declared a blockade of Saudi-flagged ships in the Red Sea earlier in the year, now have a much firmer control of the Bab al-Mandeb waterway, which Riyadh increasingly relies on for oil exports following blockades of the the Strait of Hormuz at the entrance to the Gulf, experts say.

But can the Houthis control the Red Sea?

Here’s what we know:

A satellite image obtained by Reuters on September 8, 2026 shows smoke rising from a Saudi Aramco distribution centre in Abha Bulk, after what the Saudi-led coalition in Yemen said were attacks by Yemen’s Iran-aligned Houthis [NASA/Handout via Reuters]

What’s happening in Yemen?

Yemen has been in a state of war since 2014 when Houthi rebels seized the capital Sanaa, as well as the port city of Hodeidah, forcing the government to step aside.

With Iran’s backing, the group has since battled a Saudi-backed military coalition of Gulf states fighting on the side of the internationally recognised government of Yemen based in Aden.

Saudi Arabia entered the war in 2015 in a bid to restore the Yemeni government and counter Iran’s expanding influence.

Although a UN truce in 2022 halted fighting, intermittent clashes have occurred since then. A new wave of fighting resumed last week – among the most intense in years – as the Houthis attacked positions with the aim of seizing the Red Sea coast. Yemeni government forces struck back.

In July, amidst the US-Israel war on Iran, the Houthis announced a complete maritime blockade on Saudi Arabia and began launching attacks on Saudi-linked ships passing through the important Bab al-Mandeb Strait.

The narrow strait is one of the world’s most important shipping lanes connecting the Suez Canal and Red Sea to the Gulf of Aden. Roughly 12 percent of global trade passes through daily.

Even more vessels have used it since Iran’s closure of the Strait of Hormuz, through which about 20 percent of the world’s energy supplies used to transit annually before the war began in February.

What do Houthi gains mean for Saudi Arabia?

The Houthis’ complete control of the Bab al-Mandeb corridor could worsen the ongoing global energy crisis as prices and supplies will increase, warn experts.

For Saudi Arabia, it could further damage oil exports.

Since Iran blockaded the Strait of Hormuz, Riyadh has sought to make greater use of its East-West Crude Oil Pipeline , which runs from the Abqaiq oil field across the vast Arabian Peninsula to the western port of Yanbu on the Red Sea. Oil can then be shipped via that sea route instead of the Gulf.

The pipeline has been active since the 1980s and was purpose-built to avoid disruption in Hormuz. It was temporarily shut down during Houthi drone attacks in 2019.

Since the February war, the kingdom has increased the pipeline to full capacity, meaning it can now pump up to seven million barrels per day (bpd) across the country to the Red Sea coast, up from five million bpd before the war. As a result, 21 percent more Saudi oil is being shipped through Bab al-Mandeb than before the US-Israeli war began.

In response, the Houthis have targeted Saudi oil tankers in the Red Sea. But with the group now commanding the entire Yemeni coast and Bab al-Mandeb, Saudi exports could take a further hit.

The Houthis have already targeted Saudi energy installations and southern cities. Images on Friday appeared to show smoke billowing from the East-West pipeline. The Saudis have not confirmed whether it was hit.

What does this mean for Iran?

Experts say the Houthis appear intent on opening up a new major front in the US-Iran war and, importantly, to hand Tehran a bingo card in its ongoing stalemate with Washington. Both Iran and the US claim to be in control of the Strait of Hormuz, but much reduced shipping volumes suggest Iran has the upper hand , observers say.

Proxy control of the Bab al-Mandeb only strengthens that hand.

“It essentially means Iran now controls the Strait of Hormuz and the Strait of Hormuz plus,” said Alam Saleh, professor of international relations at the Australian National University.

It also increases pressure on Washington as surging petrol and food prices have already made the war highly unpopular, with voters expected to show their anger towards Republicans in the November mid-term elections. This week, President Donald Trump acknowledged that it is unlikely the war will end before then.

While Washington calculates that a strategy of strikes combined with economic pressure could bend Tehran to its will, it is increasingly short on time to shift the situation in its favour, Saleh said.

The Houthis’ victory not only significantly shifts the power balance in Iran’s favour, it also signals to other powers, such as China and Russia, that US military power in the Middle East is diminishing, he added.

“Iran has now played the card of global oil prices and energy security. So the Houthis controlling Bab al-Mandeb benefits Iran dramatically.”

Can the Houthis hold the Red Sea?

Thursday’s defeat of Yemeni government forces was almost handed to the Houthis on a platter, analysts say.

Yemeni government forces number an estimated 300,000, while the Houthis have about 250,000.

However, internal fractures within the Yemeni military, as well as external pressure from Saudi Arabia, have created a highly fragmented front that lacks the cohesion needed to fight a group as quick and adaptable as the Houthis, experts say.

“I would say that this is a fighting force that is probably more advanced than the force that the Saudis were fighting against about a decade ago,” Mohamad Elmasry, a professor at the Doha Institute for Graduate Studies, said of the Houthis.

In addition, access to Iranian weapons in the past several years, ranging from missiles to drones to air defence systems, has enabled the Houthis to build an impressive stockpile, he added.

However, Andreas Krieg, an associate professor at King’s College London, told Al Jazeera that despite their immediate victories, the Houthis are “terrible” at governance and are unlikely to sustain a blockade of Bab al-Mandeb. Their successful advance has happened not because they were underestimated, but because the Saudi-backed coalition was overestimated, he added.

Still, Saleh of the ANU points out, the Houthis don’t actually need to control the whole of Bab al-Mandeb or the Red Sea to achieve their objectives. A hint of danger is enough to pressure shipping companies and insurance firms that the strait is too risky to enter, he said.

The question now is whether Riyadh can effectively halt the Houthis with its own air power. In the past 24 hours, Saudi forces have launched dozens of missiles towards Houthi-controlled areas, including Mocha, but that has not appeared to have halted the group.

A recent defence pact between Saudi Arabia, Pakistan and Turkiye is unlikely to kick in, say experts, as countries want to avoid an escalation in the US-Israel conflict with Iran.

Washington seems unavailable too. US news site Axios reported that Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman called US President Donald Trump twice on Thursday and requested American air strikes against the Houthis. Trump, however, declined.

一些观察人士认为胡塞武装在过去几年中取得了令人瞩目的进步，但也有人怀疑胡塞武装能否保持胜利。

2026年9月9日，法新社电视台视频截图显示，也门政府军在塔伊兹省西部与胡塞武装发生冲突时，正在使用机枪射击。[法新社]

胡塞武装已占领也门整个红海沿岸，一路推进至至关重要的曼德海峡，该组织周五继续发动快速攻势。

周四，胡塞武装占领了港口城市摩卡，对邻国沙特阿拉伯支持的也门政府造成了沉重打击。

列表 1/4：原油价格飙升至每桶 109 美元，推高美国加息可能性

也门战争升级（共 4 项，第 2 项）：主要参与者有哪些？

胡塞武装沿也门南部红海沿岸推进（共4条记录，此为第3条）

沙特政治分析家称“不会与胡塞武装进行长期战争”，这是该分析的第四条。

分析人士称，伊朗支持的胡塞武装取得的胜利是自美国和以色列2月份对伊朗宣战以来最重要的地区事态发展。

这些攻势可能对沙特阿拉伯及其石油出口造成特别严重的损害。专家表示，胡塞武装今年早些时候宣布封锁红海的沙特籍船只，如今他们已牢牢控制了曼德海峡。在霍尔木兹海峡（波斯湾入口）遭到封锁后，利雅得越来越依赖曼德海峡进行石油出口。

但胡塞武装能够控制红海吗？

我们目前掌握的情况如下：

路透社于 2026 年 9 月 8 日获得的一张卫星图像显示，沙特阿美公司位于阿卜哈散货区的配送中心冒出浓烟。沙特领导的也门联军称，此次袭击是也门与伊朗结盟的胡塞武装所为。[NASA/路透社提供]

也门发生了什么事？

自 2014 年胡塞武装占领首都萨那和港口城市荷台达以来，也门一直处于战争状态，迫使政府下台。

在伊朗的支持下，该组织与沙特阿拉伯支持的海湾国家军事联盟展开了战斗，该联盟站在位于亚丁的国际公认的也门政府一边。

沙特阿拉伯于 2015 年介入也门战争，试图恢复也门政府并对抗伊朗不断扩大的影响力。

尽管联合国在2022年达成的停火协议停止了战斗，但此后零星冲突时有发生。上周，新一轮战斗再次爆发，其激烈程度是近年来最高的之一。胡塞武装袭击了多个阵地，企图夺取红海沿岸地区。也门政府军随即予以反击。

7 月，正值美以对伊朗开战之际，胡塞武装宣布对沙特阿拉伯实施全面海上封锁，并开始袭击途经重要曼德海峡的与沙特阿拉伯有关的船只。

这条狭窄的海峡是世界上最重要的航道之一，连接苏伊士运河和红海与亚丁湾。全球约12%的贸易量每天经由此海峡运输。

自伊朗关闭霍尔木兹海峡以来，使用该海峡的船只数量更多了。在2月份战争爆发之前，全球约20%的能源供应每年都要经过霍尔木兹海峡。

胡塞武装取得的进展对沙特阿拉伯意味着什么？

专家警告称，胡塞武装完全控制曼德海峡走廊可能会加剧当前的全球能源危机，因为价格和供应将会上涨。

对沙特阿拉伯而言，这可能会进一步损害其石油出口。

自伊朗封锁霍尔木兹海峡以来，利雅得一直寻求更充分地利用其东西向原油管道。该管道从阿布盖格油田横跨广袤的阿拉伯半岛，直达红海沿岸的延布港。石油随后可通过这条海路运输，而无需经由波斯湾。

该输油管道自上世纪80年代开始投入使用，其建造目的就是为了避免霍尔木兹河段的交通中断。2019年胡塞武装无人机袭击期间，该管道曾一度关闭。

自二月战争以来，沙特阿拉伯已将该输油管道的输送能力提升至满负荷，这意味着其目前每天可向红海沿岸输送高达700万桶石油，高于战前的500万桶/日。因此，经曼德海峡输送的沙特石油量比美以战争爆发前增加了21%。

作为回应，胡塞武装袭击了红海的沙特油轮。但由于该组织目前控制了整个也门海岸线和曼德海峡，沙特的石油出口可能会遭受进一步打击。

胡塞武装此前已袭击了沙特能源设施和南部城市。周五的画面显示，东西输油管道似乎冒出浓烟。沙特方面尚未证实该管道是否遭到袭击。

这对伊朗意味着什么？

专家表示，胡塞武装似乎意图在美伊战争中开辟一条新的主要战线，更重要的是，他们希望借此在与华盛顿的持续僵局中给德黑兰送上一张“胜利之牌”。伊朗和美国都声称控制着霍尔木兹海峡，但观察人士指出，航运量的大幅减少表明伊朗占据了上风。

对曼德海峡的代理人控制只会加强这种势力。

“这实际上意味着伊朗现在控制了霍尔木兹海峡以及霍尔木兹海峡及其周边地区，”澳大利亚国立大学国际关系教授阿拉姆·萨利赫说。

这也加大了华盛顿的压力，因为飙升的汽油和食品价格已经使这场战争极不受欢迎，预计选民将在11月的中期选举中对共和党表达愤怒。本周，唐纳德·特朗普总统承认，这场战争不太可能在此之前结束。

萨利赫表示，虽然华盛顿方面认为，打击行动加上经济压力的策略可以迫使德黑兰屈服，但它扭转局势的时间越来越少了。

他补充说，胡塞武装的胜利不仅显著地改变了力量平衡，使伊朗占据优势，也向中国和俄罗斯等其他国家发出信号，表明美国在中东的军事力量正在减弱。

“伊朗现在打出了全球油价和能源安全这张牌。因此，胡塞武装控制曼德海峡对伊朗来说意义重大。”

胡塞武装能守住红海吗？

分析人士称，也门政府军周四的失败几乎是拱手让给胡塞武装的。

也门政府军人数估计为 30 万，而胡塞武装人数约为 25 万。

专家表示，也门军队内部的分裂以及来自沙特阿拉伯的外部压力，造成了高度分散的战线，缺乏对抗像胡塞武装这样快速且适应性强的组织的凝聚力。

“我认为这支武装力量可能比沙特阿拉伯十年前与之作战的武装力量更加先进，”多哈研究生院教授穆罕默德·埃尔马斯里在谈到胡塞武装时说道。

他还补充说，过去几年里，胡塞武装获得了伊朗的武器，包括导弹、无人机和防空系统等，这使得胡塞武装能够建立起令人印象深刻的武器库。

然而，伦敦国王学院副教授安德烈亚斯·克里格告诉半岛电视台，尽管胡塞武装取得了初步胜利，但他们的治理能力“糟糕透顶”，不太可能长期封锁曼德海峡。他补充说，胡塞武装的成功推进并非因为低估了他们，而是因为高估了沙特支持的联军。

不过，澳大利亚国立大学的萨利赫指出，胡塞武装实际上并不需要控制整个曼德海峡或红海才能实现其目标。他说，只要存在一丝危险迹象，就足以向航运公司和保险公司施压，让他们认为进入该海峡风险太大。

现在的问题是，利雅得能否凭借自身的空中力量有效阻止胡塞武装。过去24小时内，沙特军队已向包括摩卡在内的胡塞武装控制区发射了数十枚导弹，但这似乎并未阻止该组织的行动。

专家表示，沙特阿拉伯、巴基斯坦和土耳其最近达成的防务协议不太可能生效，因为各国都希望避免美国和以色列与伊朗之间的冲突升级。

华盛顿方面似乎也无动于衷。美国新闻网站Axios报道称，沙特王储穆罕默德·本·萨勒曼周四两次致电美国总统唐纳德·特朗普，请求美国对胡塞武装发动空袭。然而，特朗普拒绝了这一请求。