America sold $175 billion in weapons abroad in FY20

WASHINGTON — The U.S. sold $175 billion in weapons to foreign partners and allies in fiscal 2020, a 2.8 percent rise from the previous year’s total, according to a Friday announcement from the Defense and State departments.

The total comes at the end of the Trump administration, which made increasing arms exports a key part of its economic growth platform.

Export licenses via the Direct Commercial Sales program totaled $124.3 billion in FY20, up from $114.7 billion the previous year. A series of reforms, started under the Obama administration and continued under the Trump team, has pushed more defense articles into the commercial sales realm.

Deals made through the Foreign Military Sales program, which cover the majority of large defense articles, totaled $50.78 billion. Of that total, $44.79 billion came in payments from partner nations, $3.3 billion from Foreign Military Financing , and $2.69 billion for cases funded under Defense Department Title 10 grant assistance programs, such as train and equip programs.

The FMS total represents an 8 percent drop from FY19. In FY17, the U.S. sold $41.93 billion in FMS deals. That number jumped a dramatic 33 percent in FY18 to $55.6 billion, then dipped slightly to $55.4 billion in FY19 .

Despite back-to-back years without growth, officials expressed optimism, pointing to the three-year rolling average of implemented FMS cases — which rose from $51 billion covering FY17-FY19 to $54 billion covering FY18-FY20 — as a sign of overall growth.

Officials have historically argued that the volatility of the year-to-year FMS process means that the three-year average is the best indicator of overall growth or decline, as it captures sales that implemented late in one fiscal year or early in the next.

The total of official sales is different from the total number of FMS cases cleared by the State Department. The latter figure — 68 cases worth $83.5 billion, the highest annual total of FMS notifications since the start of the Trump administration — is a good indicator of future sales, but quantities and dollar figures often change during negotiations.

While industry will cheer the sales total, William Hartung of the Center for International Policy warned that the total may be questionable.

“It is important to note that this is a vastly inflated figure if one is looking for statistics on sales that are actually likely to eventuate in contracts and deliveries,” according to Hartung. “There are many steps along the way in which an authorized sale can be sidetracked, including, for example, changes in demand and economic capacity on the part of potential customers.

“The truth is we do not have reliable figures from the Pentagon or the State Department on how much weaponry the United States delivers each year, and what items have been delivered to what countries. Without this information, it is difficult to fully assess the impact of U.S. arms exports.”

Aaron Mehta was deputy editor and senior Pentagon correspondent for Defense News, covering policy, strategy and acquisition at the highest levels of the Defense Department and its international partners.

华盛顿——美国国防部和国务院周五宣布，2020财年美国向外国伙伴和盟友出售了价值1750亿美元的武器，比上一年的总额增长了2.8%。

这一数字出现在特朗普政府执政末期，当时增加武器出口是其经济增长计划的关键组成部分。

2020财年，通过直接商业销售计划发放的出口许可证总额达1243亿美元，高于上一财年的1147亿美元。奥巴马政府时期启动、特朗普政府时期延续的一系列改革措施，推动了更多国防物资进入商业销售领域。

通过对外军售计划达成的交易总额达 507.8 亿美元，该计划涵盖了大部分大型国防物资。其中，447.9 亿美元来自伙伴国家的付款，33 亿美元来自对外军事融资，26.9 亿美元用于国防部第 10 篇拨款援助计划（例如训练和装备计划）资助的项目。

FMS总额较2019财年下降8%。2017财年，美国FMS交易额为419.3亿美元。2018财年，该数字大幅增长33%，达到556亿美元，随后在2019财年略微下降至554亿美元。

尽管连续两年没有增长，但官员们仍表示乐观，指出已实施的对外军售案例的三年滚动平均值——从涵盖 2017 财年至 2019 财年的 510 亿美元增至涵盖 2018 财年至 2020 财年的 540 亿美元——是整体增长的迹象。

官员们历来认为，由于每年 FMS 流程的波动性，三年平均值是衡量整体增长或下降的最佳指标，因为它反映了在一个财政年度末期或下一个财政年度初实施的销售情况。

官方公布的销售总额与国务院批准的对外军售（FMS）案件总数不同。后者——68起案件，总价值835亿美元，是特朗普政府上台以来FMS通知案件年度总数的最高纪录——是未来销售情况的良好指标，但交易数量和金额在谈判过程中往往会发生变化。

尽管业界人士会对销售总额表示欢迎，但国际政策中心的威廉·哈通警告说，这个总额可能存在疑问。

哈通表示：“值得注意的是，如果想要了解实际可能转化为合同和交付的销售统计数据，这个数字被严重夸大了。授权销售过程中有很多环节都可能出现偏差，例如潜在客户的需求和经济能力的变化。”

“事实上，我们没有来自五角大楼或国务院的可靠数据，说明美国每年交付多少武器，以及交付了哪些武器到哪些国家。没有这些信息，就很难全面评估美国武器出口的影响。”

Aaron Mehta 曾任《国防新闻》副主编兼五角大楼高级记者，负责报道国防部及其国际合作伙伴最高层的政策、战略和采购事宜。