Rising petrol costs drive sharp inflation increase in US in August

Petrol prices jumped 3.9 percent month-to-month, accounting for one-third of the overall inflation increase in August.

Petrol prices have continued to climb. The average price rose 15 cents in the past week [Jae C Hong/AP]

United States consumer prices jumped in August, marking the largest monthly increase in four months, in advance of the Federal Reserve’s policy meeting as expectations for an interest rate hike continue to rise.

Consumer prices rose 0.4 percent last month, following a 0.1 percent increase the month before, according to the US Department of Labor’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) report released on Friday.

list 1 of 3 Brent crude surpasses $100 a barrel as Iran, US escalate attacks

list 2 of 3 Trump says Iran war ‘will end immediately’ after US midterm elections

list 3 of 3 Oil soars to $109, pushing up chances of US interest rate increase

On an annual basis, prices rose 3.4 percent, matching the increase recorded in July.

The increase was driven by petrol prices, which have continued to climb as tensions between Iran and the US have escalated, and bottlenecks in the Strait of Hormuz, where roughly one-fifth of the world’s oil passes through, have persisted.

Petrol prices jumped 3.9 percent month-to-month and were 27.4 percent higher than a year ago. The increase in petrol prices alone accounted for one-third of the overall monthly increase in prices.

Over the past week, the national average price for petrol jumped 15 cents, from $4.15 per gallon ($1.11 per litre) last Friday to $4.30 ($1.14 per litre) now, according to the American Automobile Association (AAA), which tracks daily petrol prices.

“The rise in prices is not slowing down—national average price of gasoline continues to rise alongside diesel, which continues to climb further into record territory,” Patrick Dehaan, head of petroleum analysis at GasBuddy, said in a post on the social media platform X.

The increase comes amid a surge in crude oil prices, which crossed the $100-per-barrel mark this week for the first time since July. Brent crude, the global benchmark, hit $100 per barrel on Wednesday and climbed as high as $109 on Thursday before dipping on Friday, hovering around $104.8.

At grocery stores, food prices increased 0.1 percent on a monthly basis, matching the increase in July. Prices rose for eggs, which increased by 2.9 percent, frozen fish, up 1.7 percent, peanut butter, up 1.1 percent, and salad dressing, up 5 percent. Those increases were offset by declines in other food categories.

The price of lettuce fell by 6.2 percent, while apples declined by 2.8 percent. Condiments such as “sauces and gravies” fell by 0.8 percent, as did milk, which declined by 1.2 percent. Meanwhile, the price of beverages like juice fell by 0.8 percent and coffee by 0.6 percent.

The CPI report comes before the Federal Reserve’s two-day policy meeting, which will include a decision on interest rates. It will be the second-to-last meeting before the midterm elections, which are on November 3.

Central bank pressures

CME Group’s FedWatch tool, which tracks the likelihood of different monetary policy decisions, forecasts an 86.7 percent chance that rates will increase to a range of 3.75 percent to 4 percent, up from the current 3.5 percent to 3.75 percent range. The tracker puts the chance of rates remaining unchanged at 13.3 percent.

The forecast comes despite pressure from the White House to cut rates.

Last week in a post on Truth Social, President Donald Trump threatened to stop trading with countries with which the US has a trade deficit unless the central bank cuts interest rates.

Fed Chair Kevin Warsh, at a symposium in Jackson Hole, Wyoming, last month, said that the central bank will “have work to do” if policymakers are unable to bring inflation down to 2 percent.

The price of gold, which is widely considered a safe-haven investment during periods of economic uncertainty, climbed 1.2 percent on Friday to $4,366.69 per ounce.

US markets were trending upward following Friday’s data. The Nasdaq was up 1.2 percent, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average and S&P 500 were both up 1 percent in midday trading.

汽油价格环比上涨 3.9%，占 8 月份整体通胀涨幅的三分之一。

汽油价格持续上涨。过去一周平均价格上涨了15美分。[Jae C Hong/AP]

美国8月份消费者价格大幅上涨，创下四个月来最大单月涨幅，此前市场对美联储加息的预期持续升温，美联储政策会议也即将召开。

根据美国劳工部周五发布的消费者价格指数（CPI）报告，上个月消费者价格上涨了0.4%，此前一个月上涨了0.1%。

布伦特原油价格突破每桶100美元，伊朗和美国升级袭击事件（共3条，此为第1条）

列表 2/3：特朗普称伊朗战争将在美国中期选举后“立即结束”

油价飙升至每桶109美元，推高美国加息的可能性（共3条，此为第3条）

按年计算，价格上涨了 3.4%，与 7 月份的涨幅持平。

此次上涨是由汽油价格上涨推动的，随着伊朗和美国之间的紧张局势升级，汽油价格持续攀升，而霍尔木兹海峡的瓶颈问题（世界上大约五分之一的石油都要经过这里）也一直存在。

汽油价格环比上涨3.9%，比去年同期上涨27.4%。仅汽油价格的上涨就占当月整体价格涨幅的三分之一。

据追踪每日汽油价格的美国汽车协会（AAA）称，过去一周，全国汽油平均价格上涨了 15 美分，从上周五的每加仑 4.15 美元（每升 1.11 美元）涨至目前的每加仑 4.30 美元（每升 1.14 美元）。

GasBuddy 石油分析主管 Patrick Dehaan 在社交媒体平台 X 上发帖称：“油价上涨的势头并未放缓——全国汽油平均价格继续上涨，柴油价格也继续攀升，创下历史新高。”

此次上涨正值原油价格飙升之际，本周原油价格自7月以来首次突破每桶100美元大关。全球基准布伦特原油价格周三触及每桶100美元，周四一度攀升至每桶109美元的高位，周五回落至每桶104.8美元左右。

超市食品价格环比上涨0.1%，与7月份的涨幅持平。其中，鸡蛋价格上涨2.9%，冷冻鱼上涨1.7%，花生酱上涨1.1%，沙拉酱上涨5%。其他食品类别的价格下跌抵消了部分涨幅。

生菜价格下跌了6.2%，苹果价格下跌了2.8%。调味品（如酱汁和肉汁）价格下跌了0.8%，牛奶价格也下跌了1.2%。与此同时，果汁等饮料价格下跌了0.8%，咖啡价格下跌了0.6%。

消费者物价指数（CPI）报告发布之际，美联储即将召开为期两天的政策会议，会议将决定利率走向。这将是11月3日中期选举前的倒数第二次会议。

央行压力

芝加哥商品交易所集团（CME Group）的FedWatch工具追踪不同货币政策决策的可能性，预测利率从目前的3.5%至3.75%区间上调至3.75%至4%的概率为86.7%。该工具预测利率维持不变的概率为13.3%。

尽管白宫施压要求降息，但这一预测仍然出台。

上周，唐纳德·特朗普总统在 Truth Social 上发帖威胁称，除非中央银行降低利率，否则美国将停止与存在贸易逆差的国家进行贸易。

美联储主席凯文·沃什上个月在怀俄明州杰克逊霍尔举行的一次研讨会上表示，如果政策制定者无法将通胀率降至 2%，那么美联储将“有很多工作要做”。

黄金价格在周五上涨 1.2%，至每盎司 4,366.69 美元，黄金被广泛认为是经济不确定时期的一种避险投资。

受周五数据的影响，美国股市呈上涨趋势。纳斯达克指数上涨1.2%，道琼斯工业平均指数和标准普尔500指数在午盘交易中均上涨1%。