How Canadians are bracing for the impact of Trump’s trade war

Canada’s buy-local movement remains strong, but new tariffs could test how much more shoppers are willing to pay.

A BC Liquor store in Vancouver, British Columbia, replaces its American whisky section with a series of 'Buy Canadian Instead' signs in March 2025 [File: Jennifer Gauthier/Reuters]

Toronto, Canada – At a grocery store in downtown Toronto, small red maple leaves dot the aisles, appearing beside the prices of products.

They’re easy to miss, but shoppers like Mateus Gujrel are on the lookout. They’re a quick sign that something is Canadian-made, an increasingly important factor for consumers like Gujrel amid a ballooning trade war with the United States.

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Gujrel, a software developer, is part of a surge of nationalism under way in Canada. Since US President Donald Trump returned to office last year, relations between the two countries have grown strained amid waves of US tariffs.

The tensions have made Gujrel “way more conscious” about buying locally sourced products, he said. He switched his almond milk brand and stopped buying LaCroix, replacing the American sparkling water with a Canadian alternative.

“Anything that we can clearly see that’s Canadian, we will take,” Gujrel told Al Jazeera outside a No Frills grocery store on Wednesday.

That kind of shopping has become increasingly common in Canada over the past year. Trump’s tariffs , along with his repeated comments about making Canada the “51st state”, have fuelled a movement to boycott US products and spend money closer to home.

“I don’t want … our money to go to the US in any way that I can avoid,” Gujrel said.

There’s little sign that feeling is fading. Margaret Chapman, the chief operating officer at the market research company Narrative Research, said her firm has been tracking Canadians’ attitudes towards buying domestic products for roughly a year and a half.

“The initiative among Canadians to buy Canadian and support Canadian is not a fleeting sentiment,” Chapman told Al Jazeera. “It’s very strong, and it’s ongoing, and it’s probably set to last.”

A renewed escalation in the trade war , however, could make that commitment more complicated. Experts have warned that consumer prices could rise and job losses are possible.

Already, the trade war is at a critical juncture. In late August, tensions between the US and Canada spiked after negotiations failed to head off Trump’s threatened 50 percent tariffs on nearly $20bn worth of Canadian products, including machinery, textiles and hockey sticks.

Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney later accused the US of inserting last-minute demands into the negotiations, including terms that were “uneconomic, unfair and undermined the net benefits for Canada”.

The US tariffs took effect on August 22. In response, on Tuesday, Canada imposed a new round of retaliatory tariffs of between 15 and 50 percent on roughly $20bn worth of US imports.

Carney explained that the measures were a “dollar-for-dollar” response, targeting US products from steel and aluminium to dairy, appliances, clothing and cosmetics.

When will Canadians feel the impact of tariffs?

So far, many shoppers interviewed by Al Jazeera said they had not noticed any drastic price increases. Economists say that is not surprising.

The advisory firm Oxford Economics estimates that just 0.25 percent of the average consumer basket is directly affected by the new tariffs, largely because many of the goods Canada targeted are used by businesses rather than bought directly by shoppers.

But some of the costs could still reach consumers indirectly over time. For example, while relatively few finished food products are directly affected, there are tariffs on the materials used to package them, including metal cans, glass containers and plastic films.

That means that, while the food items themselves are not subject to tariffs, they still could become more expensive.

Retail analyst Bruce Winder said many stores are also still selling inventory purchased before the tariffs took effect, so price increases could take time to show up.

“I think that you’ll probably see some shelf prices increase in the next several weeks,” he said.

For now, much of the direct financial burden is expected to fall on businesses. Oxford Economics estimates that businesses will bear at least half the cost of the new counter-tariffs, while households will bear about 20 percent through higher prices.

But Winder said there is only so much retailers can absorb, particularly if tariffs of 25 or 50 percent remain in place.

And for many Canadians, the uncertainty surrounding the trade war may matter as much as what is happening to prices.

“I think the larger piece here is the fear, the concern, the anxiety that it’s created,” said Winder. “Even though the tariffs, you can argue, might not hit your pocketbook as much, I think people are a little nervous right now because of the potential employment impacts.”

Can Canadians afford to keep buying Canadian?

This all comes as Canadians are already feeling squeezed.

Meeda Buzzeri, who works in finance, said she has been deliberately trying to buy Canadian and avoiding US products where she can. For her, it is partly about pushing back against Trump.

“Canada is a great economy and a large economy, and we’re not another state of the US,” she said.

But she admits choosing Canadian could get harder if it means paying significantly more.

“There would be a point where it’s like, OK, this is getting extreme,” Buzzeri said. “My grocery prices are getting too much.”

So far, however, research suggests that the buy-Canadian movement is resilient.

One study by Narrative Research found that 76 percent of respondents chose a hypothetical basket of entirely Canadian groceries, worth 120 Canadian dollars, or $86.50, over a cheaper basket likely sourced from the US, worth 100 Canadian dollars, or $72.

Even when the Canadian basket cost 140 Canadian dollars — roughly $101 — 70 percent of respondents still chose it.

“People said they would do it, and they are doing it,” Chapman said. “Even in tough economic times … people are willing to put more of their dollars if it’s supporting Canadian.”

Gujrel is among them. He said he would pay more for a Canadian product although, if it cost twice as much, he might reconsider.

Experts say that may be the real test of consumer commitment to the trend: not whether Canadians want to support domestic businesses, but how much more they can afford to do it.

加拿大的“购买本地产品”运动依然强劲，但新的关税可能会考验消费者愿意多支付多少费用。

2025年3月，加拿大不列颠哥伦比亚省温哥华的一家BC Liquor商店用一系列“请购买加拿大产品”的标牌取代了原有的美国威士忌区。[图片：Jennifer Gauthier/路透社]

加拿大，多伦多——在多伦多市中心的一家杂货店里，小小的红色枫叶点缀着货架，出现在商品价格旁边。

这些标志很容易被忽略，但像马特乌斯·古杰雷尔这样的购物者却会留意。它们是判断商品是否加拿大制造的快捷标志，在与美国的贸易战愈演愈烈的当下，这对于像古杰雷尔这样的消费者来说，是一个越来越重要的因素。

特朗普威胁称，除非飞机在美国制造，否则将阻止加拿大从庞巴迪公司购买飞机（共3条，第1条）。

（共3条，第2条）随着加拿大对美国商品加征报复性关税生效，紧张局势急剧升级

（共3项）美加贸易战的输家

软件开发人员古杰尔是加拿大正在兴起的民族主义浪潮中的一员。自美国总统唐纳德·特朗普去年再次上任以来，由于美国不断加征关税，两国关系日益紧张。

古杰雷尔表示，这些紧张局势让他“更加注重”购买本地产品。他更换了杏仁奶品牌，不再购买LaCroix气泡水，而是用加拿大产的气泡水代替了美国产的。

“只要我们能清楚地看到是加拿大制造的，我们都会拿走，”古杰雷尔周三在一家 No Frills 杂货店外告诉半岛电视台。

过去一年，这种购物方式在加拿大变得越来越普遍。特朗普的关税政策，以及他反复提及要让加拿大成为“第51个州”的言论，助长了抵制美国产品、在国内消费的风潮。

“我不想……以任何方式让我们的钱流向美国，”古杰雷尔说。

几乎没有迹象表明这种情绪正在消退。市场调研公司Narrative Research的首席运营官玛格丽特·查普曼表示，她的公司已经追踪加拿大人对购买国产产品的态度大约一年半了。

查普曼告诉半岛电视台：“加拿大人购买加拿大产品、支持加拿大企业的这种意愿并非一时兴起。这种意愿非常强烈，而且仍在持续，很可能会长期存在下去。”

然而，贸易战的再次升级可能会使这一承诺变得更加复杂。专家警告称，消费者价格可能会上涨，失业问题也可能出现。

贸易战已进入关键时刻。8月下旬，美加两国紧张局势急剧升级，此前双方谈判未能阻止特朗普威胁对价值近200亿美元的加拿大产品（包括机械、纺织品和曲棍球棒）加征50%的关税。

加拿大总理马克·卡尼后来指责美国在谈判中临时提出要求，其中包括“不经济、不公平且损害加拿大净利益”的条款。

美国关税于8月22日生效。作为回应，加拿大于周二对价值约200亿美元的美国进口商品加征了15%至50%的新一轮报复性关税。

卡尼解释说，这些措施是“以一比一”的应对措施，针对的是美国产品，从钢铁和铝到乳制品、家电、服装和化妆品。

加拿大人何时会感受到关税的影响？

到目前为止，半岛电视台采访的许多购物者表示，他们尚未注意到任何大幅的价格上涨。经济学家表示，这并不令人意外。

咨询公司牛津经济研究院估计，只有 0.25% 的普通消费者购物篮直接受到新关税的影响，这主要是因为加拿大针对的许多商品是企业使用的，而不是消费者直接购买的。

但随着时间的推移，部分成本仍可能间接转嫁到消费者身上。例如，虽然直接受影响的成品食品相对较少，但用于包装这些食品的材料，包括金属罐、玻璃容器和塑料薄膜，都需要缴纳关税。

这意味着，虽然食品本身不受关税约束，但它们的价格仍然可能会上涨。

零售分析师布鲁斯·温德表示，许多商店仍在销售关税生效前购买的库存，因此价格上涨可能需要一段时间才会显现。

“我认为未来几周内，一些货架商品的价格可能会上涨，”他说。

目前来看，大部分直接的经济负担预计将落在企业身上。牛津经济研究院估计，企业将承担至少一半的新反制关税成本，而家庭将通过更高的物价承担约20%的成本。

但温德表示，零售商能够承受的损失是有限的，尤其是在 25% 或 50% 的关税仍然有效的情况下。

对许多加拿大人来说，贸易战带来的不确定性可能与物价走势同样重要。

温德说：“我认为更重要的原因是人们的恐惧、担忧和焦虑。虽然关税可能不会直接影响到你的钱包，但我认为人们现在有点紧张，因为这可能对就业产生影响。”

加拿大人还能负担得起继续购买加拿大制造的产品吗？

这一切都发生在加拿大人已经感到生活拮据的情况下。

在金融行业工作的米达·布泽里表示，她一直刻意购买加拿大产品，尽可能避免购买美国产品。对她来说，这部分原因是为了抵制特朗普。

“加拿大是一个经济实力雄厚、规模庞大的国家，我们不是美国的另一个州，”她说。

但她承认，如果选择加拿大产品意味着要支付更高的费用，那么选择加拿大产品可能会变得更加困难。

“总有一天你会觉得，好吧，这太过分了，”布泽里说。“我的食品杂货价格太高了。”

然而，到目前为止，研究表明“购买加拿大产品”运动具有很强的韧性。

Narrative Research 的一项研究发现，76% 的受访者选择了一个假设的完全由加拿大制造的食品杂货组成的篮子，价值 120 加元（86.50 美元），而不是一个可能来自美国的更便宜的篮子，价值 100 加元（72 美元）。

即使加拿大礼篮的价格为 140 加元（约合 101 美元），仍有 70% 的受访者选择了它。

查普曼说：“人们说他们会这样做，他们也确实做到了。即使在经济困难时期……如果能支持加拿大，人们也愿意投入更多资金。”

古杰雷尔就是其中之一。他说他愿意为加拿大产品支付更高的价格，但如果价格翻倍，他可能会重新考虑。

专家表示，这或许才是检验消费者对这一趋势承诺的真正标准：不是加拿大人是否愿意支持国内企业，而是他们还能负担得起多少。