Estonia-Russia ship standoff portends a harsher tone on the Baltic Sea

MILAN — Russia’s detention of a Greek-owned ship that departed from Estonia – days after Estonian forces tried to intercept a Russia-bound tanker – signals Moscow’s willingness to deploy military power more overtly to protect its shadow-fleet, a vital pillar of its war economy, experts say.

Russia temporarily stopped the oil tanker in its territorial waters on Sunday following the Estonian navy’s attempt last week to stop the unflagged and unresponsive Jaguar tanker in its exclusive economic zone.

The apparent retaliation was interpreted by analysts as a signal of Russia’s readiness to defend its clandestine maritime operations by force, if needed, to deter possible interference.

“Russia is more overt in using military force to protect its shadow fleet — using a jet in what appears to be a case of reckless and unsafe flying is a clear indication that it wants no interference with the ships that are increasingly instrumental to its war economy,” Sebastian Bruns, a senior researcher at the Kiel, Germany-based Institute for Security Policy at Kiel University (ISPK).

While it was the first time Russian officials held a ship in the region, experts say that the incident is part of a wider pattern of behavior toward the Baltic state.

“It doesn’t dramatically differ from the broader trends in Russian attitudes towards Estonia — it only reflects the multifaceted nature of Russian hybrid warfare combining military force, plausible deniability and information warfare,” Ivan Klyszcz, a research fellow at the Estonia-based International Centre for Defence and Security said.

The episode began on May 13, when the Jaguar transited through Estonian waters.

“The Navy started calling out to identify the status of the ship and verify its flag – the intention was to direct it to anchorage to check it and the insurance,” the chief of staff of the Estonian Defense Forces’ Headquarters ,Maj. Gen. Vahur Karus, said during a national news program, as quoted by Estonian broadcaster ERR.

The vessel, suspected to be part of Russia’s shadow fleet, had previously sailed under the Gabonese flag until this right was removed three days before it was sanctioned by the U.K.

“It was destined for the Russian Federation,” Maj. Gen. Karus said.

According to the Estonian minister of foreign affairs, Margus Tsahkna, the Estonian navy made an initial, unsuccessful attempt to stop the tanker.

After the vessel refused to follow orders to alter its course, rather than heading towards Russian waters escorted by Estonian ships, a Russian Sukhoi Su-35 jet approach, flying in Estonian airspace for less than a minute.

The Russian warplane was sent as a protective measure to prevent the Jaguar from being sized, Margarita Simonyan, head of the Russian state-owned outlet RT said on X.

Such hectic situations in the Baltic Sea have intensified in recent months, with NATO launching its Baltic Sentry patrol mission in January after a series of sabotage incidents.

Boarding and inspecting suspicious vessels has proven to be an increasingly complex endeavor, largely because of the different laws governing national versus international waters.

Bruns noted that the May 13 incident presents wider strategic implications, as Europeans look for ways to strike a balance between maritime regulations while carrying out national and allied defense.

“What do Western navies and coast guards do when in the future cargo ships of the shadow fleet will be ‘closely protected’ by Russian warships? These are tough questions to ask,” he said.

International law grants a country the right to board and inspect foreign vessels in their EZZ to verify compliance with its regulations.

“I would caution Estonia will be cautious with the kind of ‘escalation’ had they been more forceful – they too are walking a fine line,” Bruns said.

Russia released the Greek tanker Green Admire on May 20, which continued its voyage to Rotterdam, according to ERR.

Elisabeth Gosselin-Malo was a Europe correspondent for Defense News. She covers a wide range of topics related to military procurement and international security, and specializes in reporting on the aviation sector. She is based in Milan, Italy.

米兰——专家表示，俄罗斯扣押了一艘从爱沙尼亚出发的希腊籍船只——此前几天，爱沙尼亚军队曾试图拦截一艘驶往俄罗斯的油轮——这表明莫斯科愿意更加公开地部署军事力量来保护其影子舰队，而影子舰队是其战争经济的重要支柱。

继爱沙尼亚海军上周试图在其专属经济区拦截这艘未悬挂国旗且无反应的“美洲虎”号油轮后，俄罗斯于周日暂时在其领海内拦截了这艘油轮。

分析人士认为，这一明显的报复行为表明，俄罗斯准备在必要时以武力捍卫其秘密海上行动，以阻止可能的干涉。

“俄罗斯更加公开地使用武力来保护其影子舰队——使用喷气式飞机进行看似鲁莽和不安全的飞行，清楚地表明它不希望对其战争经济日益重要的舰船造成任何干扰，”德国基尔大学安全政策研究所 (ISPK) 的高级研究员塞巴斯蒂安·布伦斯 (Sebastian Bruns) 表示。

虽然这是俄罗斯官员首次在该地区扣押船只，但专家表示，这一事件是俄罗斯对波罗的海国家采取的更广泛行为模式的一部分。

“这与俄罗斯对爱沙尼亚的整体态度趋势并没有显著不同——它只是反映了俄罗斯混合战争的多面性，即结合了军事力量、可信的否认和信息战，”爱沙尼亚国际防务与安全中心的研究员伊万·克利什奇说。

事件始于5月13日，当时这艘美洲虎号潜艇途经爱沙尼亚水域。

据爱沙尼亚广播公司ERR报道，爱沙尼亚国防军总部参谋长瓦胡尔·卡鲁斯少将在一次国家新闻节目中表示：“海军开始呼叫，以确定该船的状态并核实其船旗——目的是引导该船驶入锚地进行检查，并核实其保险情况。”

这艘被怀疑是俄罗斯影子舰队一部分的船只，此前曾悬挂加蓬国旗航行，直到在英国对其实施制裁前三天，其悬挂加蓬国旗的权利被取消。

“它原本是要运往俄罗斯联邦的，”卡鲁斯少将说。

据爱沙尼亚外交部长马尔古斯·察赫克纳称，爱沙尼亚海军曾试图拦截这艘油轮，但未能成功。

该船拒绝服从改变航向的命令，也没有在爱沙尼亚船只的护送下驶向俄罗斯水域，而是一架俄罗斯苏霍伊 Su-35 喷气式飞机接近，在爱沙尼亚领空飞行了不到一分钟。

俄罗斯国家媒体RT的负责人玛格丽塔·西蒙尼扬在X上表示，俄罗斯派出战机是为了保护美洲虎战机免受攻击。

近几个月来，波罗的海局势愈发紧张，北约在1月份启动了“波罗的海哨兵”巡逻任务，此前发生了一系列破坏事件。

登船检查可疑船只已成为一项日益复杂的工作，这主要是因为管辖国家水域和国际水域的法律不同。

布伦斯指出，5 月 13 日的事件具有更广泛的战略意义，因为欧洲人正在寻求在执行国家和盟国防御的同时，在海上法规之间取得平衡的方法。

“未来，当影子舰队的货船受到俄罗斯军舰的‘严密保护’时，西方海军和海岸警卫队该怎么办？这些都是棘手的问题，”他说道。

国际法赋予一国在其经济特区内登船检查外国船舶的权利，以核实其是否遵守本国法规。

布伦斯说：“我要提醒爱沙尼亚，如果他们采取更强硬的手段，就会对‘升级’采取谨慎态度——他们也正走在一条钢丝上。”

据ERR报道，俄罗斯于5月20日释放了希腊油轮“绿赞号”，该油轮继续驶往鹿特丹。

伊丽莎白·戈斯林-马洛曾任《防务新闻》欧洲通讯员。她的报道涵盖军事采购和国际安全等广泛领域，尤其擅长航空领域的报道。她常驻意大利米兰。