El Niño has broken Atlantic hurricanes. Now the season is breaking records

No hurricanes have formed in the Atlantic Ocean 103 days into the season, a new record-long wait driven by a beast of an El Niño strangling fledgling storms.

Until today, September 11 was the date of the latest first hurricanes — Gustav (2002) and Humberto (2013). Or at least, the latest we know with confidence since 1966, when satellites started tracking hurricanes more accurately.

The first hurricane is now more than a month overdue , and there are no prospects for one in the foreseeable future.

Thursday marked the statistical peak of the season, and with just five short-lived tropical storms to date, it is now also the least active one since 1950, according to Phil Klotzbach , a hurricane expert with Colorado State University.

The only system that made a run at becoming a hurricane was tiny Tropical Storm Edouard on September 1. Edouard was 14 mph shy of hurricane strength and intensifying when it made landfall near the Texas-Louisiana border, cutting it off from the Gulf’s warm water fuel.

Looking forward, just over 50% of the entire season’s activity typically occurs after September 10, but El Niño will likely have a say in stifling the Atlantic’s final stretch this year.

Last year’s first hurricane showed up in mid-August, and three more spun up in the second half of September. The United States managed to avoid a hurricane landfall last year — if the current quiet season repeats that, it’ll be the first back-to-back years without a hurricane landfall since 2009 and 2010.

But it’s worth noting that hurricanes can find windows of opportunity to develop even in the most inactive years – and not a single season since 1966 has gone by without one. Most notably, Category 5 Hurricane Andrew’s catastrophic South Florida landfall in August 1992 happened in a season with just seven storms.

September is hurricane season’s peak because storm-fueling warm water is at its most expansive and hottest alongside ripe atmospheric factors. About two to three hurricanes develop this month on average.

The results can be dangerous, as 2024’s Helene and 2022’s Ian proved, slamming the US Gulf Coast as Category 4s.

Water temperatures are warm enough for hurricanes right now, but El Niño-fueled wind shear, aka tropical-system kryptonite, has soured the situation.

Wind shear involves changes in wind speed and direction at different levels of the atmosphere, and it can shred apart anything from budding tropical systems to fully developed hurricanes.

The shear has been record-strong this summer across the Atlantic’s so-called main development region, which extends from Africa through the Caribbean, according to Klotzbach. Many storms get their start in this region at the height of the season — mid-August to early October — but this year it’s been nearly shutdown.

Tropical Storm Dolly is the only system that has formed in this part of the ocean so far in 2026, and a wall of wind shear ripped it apart just 24 hours later. A few other systems have tried to develop, but were also defeated by shear.

El Niño’s storm-killing winds will remain an obstacle for development in hurricane season’s back stretch, though that’s no reason to get complacent.

Plus, late-season storms tend to develop closer to the US, including in the Gulf and off the Southeast coast. Those areas tend to be affected less by El Niño’s wind shear, so they’ll be watched closely.

And as we’ve already learned this year, it doesn’t take a hurricane-strength system to cause significant impacts, particularly in a warming world making tropical systems wetter.

Tropical Storm Arthur’s remnants fueled widespread flooding along the central Gulf Coast in June. Cottonport, Louisiana, was drenched by 29.06 inches of rain in 24 hours, which obliterated the previous state record of 22 inches set back in 1962. The record is still being reviewed and certified.

Heavy rain from Tropical Storm Edouard less than two weeks ago resulted in dangerous flash flooding and water rescues in eastern Texas. A month’s worth of rain fell in an hour and rainfall totals topped 20 inches in some areas north of Beaumont.

飓风季已经过去了 103 天，大西洋上仍未形成任何飓风，这是由厄尔尼诺现象扼杀新生风暴造成的新的最长等待时间。

直到今天，9月11日还是飓风首次登陆日期最晚的一次——2002年的古斯塔夫飓风和2013年的温贝托飓风。或者至少，这是自1966年卫星开始更精确地追踪飓风以来，我们能够确定的最晚登陆日期。

第一场飓风已经迟到超过一个月了，而且在可预见的未来也没有出现飓风的迹象。

周四标志着本季飓风活动的统计高峰，迄今为止只有五个短暂的热带风暴，科罗拉多州立大学飓风专家菲尔·克洛茨巴赫表示，这也是自 1950 年以来最不活跃的一个飓风季。

唯一一个试图发展成飓风的系统是9月1日出现的小型热带风暴爱德华。爱德华在德克萨斯州和路易斯安那州交界处附近登陆时，风速比飓风强度少了14英里/小时，并且还在增强，这切断了它与墨西哥湾温暖海水的联系。

展望未来，通常情况下，整个赛季超过 50% 的活动发生在 9 月 10 日之后，但厄尔尼诺现象可能会对今年大西洋的最后阶段活动产生抑制作用。

去年第一个飓风出现在8月中旬，9月下半月又出现了三个飓风。美国去年成功躲过了飓风登陆——如果今年的平静飓风季也能如此，这将是自2009年和2010年以来首次连续两年没有飓风登陆。

但值得注意的是，即使在飓风活动最少的年份，飓风也可能找到发展的机会——自1966年以来，没有哪个飓风季完全没有出现过这种情况。最显著的例子是，1992年8月，五级飓风安德鲁在南佛罗里达登陆，造成灾难性后果，而那一年飓风季只有七场风暴。

九月是飓风季的高峰期，因为此时温暖的海水范围最广、温度最高，同时大气条件也最为适宜形成飓风。平均而言，这个月会形成两到三个飓风。

结果可能很危险，2024 年的飓风海伦和 2022 年的飓风伊恩就证明了这一点，它们以 4 级飓风的强度袭击了美国墨西哥湾沿岸。

目前水温足以形成飓风，但厄尔尼诺现象引发的风切变（又称热带气旋的克星）使情况恶化。

风切变是指大气不同高度的风速和风向发生变化，它可以撕裂从萌芽的热带气旋到完全发展的飓风的任何气旋。

据克洛茨巴赫称，今年夏季，大西洋所谓主要发展区（从非洲延伸至加勒比海）的风切变强度创下历史新高。许多风暴在季节高峰期——8月中旬至10月初——于该区域形成，但今年该区域的风暴活动几乎完全停止。

热带风暴多莉是2026年迄今为止在该海域形成的唯一一个热带气旋系统，但仅仅24小时后，一股强劲的风切变就将其摧毁殆尽。其他一些热带气旋系统也曾试图发展，但同样被风切变所击败。

厄尔尼诺现象带来的足以摧毁风暴的大风仍将是飓风季后期发展的一大障碍，但这并不意味着我们可以掉以轻心。

此外，晚季风暴往往在美国附近形成，包括墨西哥湾和东南部沿海地区。这些地区受厄尔尼诺现象风切变的影响较小，因此需要密切关注。

正如我们今年已经了解到的，即使不是飓风级别的天气系统，也会造成重大影响，尤其是在全球变暖导致热带系统降雨量增加的情况下。

6月，热带风暴“亚瑟”的残余环流引发了墨西哥湾沿岸中部地区的大范围洪灾。路易斯安那州科顿波特市24小时内降雨量达29.06英寸，打破了该州1962年创下的22英寸的降雨纪录。目前，该纪录仍在审核和认证中。

不到两周前，热带风暴“爱德华”带来的强降雨导致德克萨斯州东部发生危险的突发性洪水，并引发了多起水上救援事件。一小时内降雨量相当于一个月的降雨量，博蒙特以北部分地区的降雨量超过20英寸。