Sweden’s election could bring far right a place at the heart of government

Denis Balibouse/Reuters

Swedes will vote on Sunday in a tight election that has effectively become a referendum on whether the far-right Sweden Democrats should join the government and ​cement their journey from pariahs to trusted partners in a country once seen as one of Europe’s most liberal.

The party, with roots in the neo-Nazi fringe, has around 19% of ‌the vote, according to the latest polls, and the ruling center-right minority coalition has vowed to bring them into its bloc to secure Prime Minister Ulf Kristersson a second term in office.

“We have agreed to campaign on a platform of building a common, majority government and that I will lead that government,” Kristersson told Reuters on the campaign trail in late August.

The election will show whether Swedish voters want to deepen a political shift that has already upended decades of consensus ​on immigration and national identity, and turned one of Europe’s most open societies into a testing ground for tougher policies on integration, citizenship and border controls.

Kristersson has credited his cooperation in parliament with ​the Sweden Democrat leader Jimmie Akesson, since 2022, for delivering growth, lower prices for energy and food, reducing gang crime and shootings and cutting asylum numbers to record ⁠lows. He has promised to deepen ties after the September 13 vote and give the party cabinet positions.

Over the last four years, the government has abolished permanent residency for refugees, tightened welfare rules and ​boosted expulsions of those without a right to stay.

Asylum numbers have dropped to a 40-year low and while Kristersson says the focus will now be on integration, the Sweden Democrats want to go further.

Michael Brandt/dpa/picture-alliance/AP

The far right’s win in Germany is sending a chill through the establishment in Europe

“In Sweden it is Swedish ​culture, the Swedish language, Swedish laws, Swedish norms, Swedish morals and Swedish traditions that apply,” Mattias Karlsson, Sweden Democrat lawmaker and one of Akesson’s closest allies, told Reuters.

“If you can’t accept that, you have to find somewhere else to live.”

Despite a consensus over tight immigration policies, many Swedes still feel a deep unease about the far right and polls point to a knife-edge vote with the centre-left opposition, which is backing Social Democrats leader Magdalena Andersson for prime minister, ​holding a small but narrowing lead.

“If the Sweden Democrats enter government, that would have an enormously negative impact on the liberal ideals of our country,” said Birgitta Ohlsson, European Affairs minister from 2010 to 2014, ​and now a Center Party lawmaker.

“We’ve already seen the effects while they’ve been outside government, and it would be ten times worse.”

The rise of the far right has reshaped Europe’s political landscape, with such parties already sharing ‌power in ⁠countries including Finland, Italy, Croatia and the Czech Republic, while posing growing challenges in France and Germany .

Akesson’s Sweden Democrats have spent the last four years as Kristersson’s main parliamentary backers and some analysts say the election may be less a watershed than a recognition of Akesson’s success in shedding the party’s extremist baggage. The party apologised in 2025 for past neo-Nazi and antisemitic views.

“The election is a referendum on the Sweden Democrats; whether we continue to go down a far-right path,” Jan Guillou, author and political commentator, told Reuters.

Policies that a decade ago many Swedes would have viewed as a rejection of the country’s liberal values have gained acceptance across much ​of the political spectrum.

The blocs have also converged ​in several areas of key concern to voters ⁠with both promising stronger welfare, continued support for Ukraine, rearmament and measures to ease a cost-of-living crisis that has hit many households hard.

“I think you’ll see a continued normalization of the Sweden Democrats,” said Lars Tragardh, a historian and author who led work on a government cultural heritage list criticised at the time by ​some as too narrow and exclusionary.

“It’s time to tone down the hysteria.”

Critics, however, fear the Sweden Democrats’ promises to end multiculturalism, restore traditional Swedish ​values and ban some forms ⁠of Muslim dress could deepen social divisions and shift the political centre of gravity even further right.

“I’m afraid more people will be expelled. I’m worried about the press, free speech and the freedom to demonstrate,” said Kurdo Baksi, an author and anti-racism campaigner, speaking on the sidelines of a pro-immigration demonstration in Stockholm.

In a Facebook campaign message, Andersson said voters’ choice was not whether she or the incumbent Kristersson would become prime minister, but ⁠whether the Sweden ​Democrats would shape policy on defence, schools, culture and finance.

“That would be a very different Sweden,” she said.

Even if she wins, ​Andersson faces a daunting task in building a stable coalition.

The four opposition parties, the Social Democrats, Greens, Left Party and Centre Party, broadly agree on increasing welfare and public spending.

But they differ on key policies, from a tax on billionaires to whether Sweden ​should build new nuclear reactors, and the Centre Party refuses to sit in the same government as the Left Party.

丹尼斯·巴利布斯/路透社

瑞典将于周日举行大选，选情胶着，实际上已演变成一场全民公投，决定极右翼的瑞典民主党是否应该加入政府，从而巩固其从被排斥者到值得信赖的合作伙伴的转变。瑞典曾被视为欧洲最自由的国家之一。

根据最新民调，这个起源于新纳粹边缘群体的政党获得了约 19% 的选票，而执政的中右翼少数派联盟已誓言要将其纳入自己的阵营，以确保总理乌尔夫·克里斯特松连任。

“我们已经同意以建立一个共同的、多数派政府为竞选纲领，而我将领导这个政府，”克里斯特森在8月下旬的竞选活动中告诉路透社。

这次选举将表明瑞典选民是否希望深化政治转变，这种转变已经颠覆了数十年来在移民和国家认同问题上的共识，并将欧洲最开放的社会之一变成了在融合、公民身份和边境管制方面实施更严格政策的试验场。

克里斯特松认为，自2022年以来，他与瑞典民主党领袖吉米·阿克松在议会的合作，促成了经济增长、能源和食品价格下降、帮派犯罪和枪击事件减少，并将难民接收人数降至历史新低。他承诺在9月13日投票后深化合作，并给予该党内阁职位。

过去四年里，政府废除了难民永久居留权，收紧了福利规定，并加大了对无权居留者的驱逐力度。

庇护人数已降至 40 年来的最低水平，虽然克里斯特松表示现在的重点将是融合，但瑞典民主党希望更进一步。

Michael Brandt/dpa/picture-alliance/AP

德国极右翼的胜利令欧洲当权派感到不寒而栗。

“在瑞典，适用的是瑞典文化、瑞典语言、瑞典法律、瑞典规范、瑞典道德和瑞典传统，”瑞典民主党议员、阿克松最亲密的盟友之一马蒂亚斯·卡尔松告诉路透社。

“如果你不能接受这一点，那就得另找地方住。”

尽管瑞典在严格的移民政策上达成了共识，但许多瑞典人仍然对极右翼感到深深的不安。民调显示，此次选举结果将十分胶着，支持社会民主党领导人玛格达莱娜·安德森担任首相的中左翼反对派目前保持着微弱但正在缩小的领先优势。

“如果瑞典民主党进入政府，那将对我们国家的自由主义理想产生巨大的负面影响，”2010 年至 2014 年担任欧洲事务部长、现任中间党议员的比尔吉塔·奥尔松说道。

“我们已经看到了他们离开政府后的影响，如果让他们留在政府里，情况会糟糕十倍。”

极右势力的崛起重塑了欧洲的政治格局，这些政党已经在芬兰、意大利、克罗地亚和捷克共和国等国分享权力，同时在法国和德国也构成了日益严峻的挑战。

阿克松领导的瑞典民主党在过去四年一直是克里斯特松在议会的主要支持者，一些分析人士认为，此次选举与其说是一个分水岭，不如说是对阿克松成功摆脱该党极端主义包袱的认可。该党曾在2025年就其过去的纳粹和反犹太主义观点道歉。

“这次选举是对瑞典民主党的一次全民公投；决定我们是否继续走极右翼道路，”作家兼政治评论员扬·吉卢告诉路透社。

十年前，许多瑞典人会将某些政策视为对国家自由价值观的否定，而如今，这些政策已在政治光谱的大部分地区得到认可。

这两个阵营在选民十分关心的几个关键领域也达成了共识，双方都承诺加强福利、继续支持乌克兰、重新武装以及采取措施缓解严重冲击许多家庭的生活成本危机。

“我认为你会看到瑞典民主党继续走向正常化，”历史学家兼作家拉尔斯·特拉加德说道。他曾领导制定政府文化遗产名录的工作，该名录当时受到一些人的批评，认为其过于狭隘和排他。

“是时候平息这场歇斯底里了。”

然而，批评人士担心，瑞典民主党承诺结束多元文化主义、恢复瑞典传统价值观并禁止某些形式的穆斯林服饰，可能会加深社会分裂，并将政治重心进一步右移。

“我担心会有更多人被驱逐。我担心新闻自由、言论自由和示威自由，”作家兼反种族主义活动家库尔多·巴克西在斯德哥尔摩一场支持移民的示威活动间隙说道。

安德森在Facebook竞选信息中表示，选民的选择不是她还是现任首相克里斯特松会成为首相，而是瑞典民主党是否会在国防、学校、文化和金融方面制定政策。

“那将是一个截然不同的瑞典，”她说。

即使她获胜，安德森在组建稳定的联盟方面也面临着艰巨的任务。

社会民主党、绿党、左翼党和中间党这四个反对党在增加福利和公共支出方面基本达成共识。

但他们在一些关键政策上存在分歧，从对亿万富翁征税到瑞典是否应该建造新的核反应堆，中间党拒绝与左翼党在同一个政府中执政。