Qantas is retiring its A380s. Is it time to say goodbye to the superjumbo?

It’s enormous. It’s adored by fans. It’s clearly long past its prime. And it’s had more comebacks than Elvis.

But, as Australia’s national airline Qantas prepares to retire its entire fleet of Airbus A380 superjumbos, with the comfort and luxury of their full double-decker cabins, has the world’s largest passenger airplane finally had its day?

The airline said in August that it will begin retiring its 10 A380s in 2028, or four years earlier than originally scheduled, due to rising maintenance and fuel costs — a concern often echoed by other carriers still operating the gigantic aircraft.

Qantas’s A380 decision is the latest nail in the coffin for the superjumbo jet. Only 171 remain in service today, down from the global fleet’s peak of more than 230 planes in the late 2010s, data from aviation analytics firm Cirium shows. Airbus stopped making them in 2021 after orders dried up. And the Covid-19 pandemic prompted airlines including Air France and Thai Airways to retire their fleets in full as the world waited to see if air travel would ever recover.

It’s also a reflection of how the world of luxury aviation is changing. On its launch, the A380 rode a wave of emerging Middle Eastern airlines who used its status to claim a big slice of the executive travel market. Now, as other airlines catch up, the A380 is no longer the ace in the deck.

Of course, the superjumbo has been here before.

In those empty-sky days of Covid, many declared the A380 already dead, with aviation poised to enter a new world of smaller, more efficient medium- and long-haul aircraft that would render the hub-to-hub leviathans obsolete. But the A380’s enduring popularity won out and it surged back, aided by Airbus and Boeing production delays on new jets.

While it has not yet set an exact date for when the A380 will stop carrying its Flying Kangaroo logo, Qantas — an airline that has had a long and deep love affair with the superjumbo — can be seen as a harbinger of the A380’s fate.

“It’s an aircraft that’s been out of production since 2021,” Cam Wallace, the CEO of Qantas International and Freight, told investors recently. “We already have supply chain challenges today and we know there’s likely to be supply constraints in the future.”

It’s bad news for the legions of flyers who hold a special place in their hearts for the A380. The plane is renowned for offering a level of stability and comfort unmatched by other jets. The novelty of boarding on the upper deck and the sheer spaciousness of a plane that can easily seat more than 500 people add to its allure.

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Planespotters too will be disappointed. The thrill of watching the gargantuan airplane wallowing in the sky, in apparent defiance of gravity, as it takes off or comes into land, has yet to be matched by other commercial jets.

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“It’s my favorite aircraft,” said Sebastian Barney, a resident of Melbourne, Australia, and Qantas frequent flyer who often boards an A380 on his way to and from the United States. “It feels more open and a smoother ride” than other planes.

The good news is, while the countdown to oblivion may have started, the A380 is likely to endure for even a few more years.

George Dimitroff, the global head of aircraft valuations at Cirium, said the A380 use case is split in two: Emirates versus the rest of the aviation industry.

Emirates, the largest A380 operator with scores of the planes, has designed entire terminals around the A380 at its megahub airport in Dubai. For other airlines, with just a handful of A380s, the aircraft is used exclusively on key, high-traffic routes.

“Airlines with smaller fleets of A380s are going to retire them,” Dimitroff said. “Especially as the industry as a whole focuses on premium travel.”

He added: “It’s going to eventually be an Emirates-only aircraft.”

Other experts agree that Emirates will likely be the final major operator of the A380. The airline flies 101 of the planes today with another 15 in storage, Cirium data shows. Replacing that number of aircraft, even if Emirates wanted to, would take the better part of a decade at current production rates.

“Emirates plans to fly the A380 into the early 2040s, which is why we are investing billions to refurbish our existing planes with the latest cabin interiors and technologies like Starlink,” Tim Clark, the president of Emirates, said in a statement.

“The Emirates A380 continues to have strong customer appeal, iconic brand value, and unmatched capacity in supporting sustained growth in demand,” he added.

Emirates took delivery of the last A380 ever built in 2021.

Other airlines are not as tied to the superjumbo, but some have already committed to up to a decade of continued operation.

Lufthansa Group CEO Carsten Spohr said in 2021 that the group had “permanently decommissioned” the A380. Two years later, the planes were back in service owing to production delays at both Airbus and Boeing, particularly for the 777X, an aircraft that is still awaiting certification.

Today, Lufthansa is upgrading the business class suites and the inflight entertainment on its eight remaining A380s — a signal that the planes are here to stay for a while longer. A spokesperson for the airline said it plans to fly the A380 “well into the 2030s.”

All Nippon Airways, British Airways, Singapore Airlines and other operators also have no imminent plans to retire the A380. “They remain one of our most popular aircraft,” a spokesperson for Singapore Airlines said.

A380s, for now, will remain a staple of aviation hubs around the world, hitting the tarmac in London, Munich, Dubai, Singapore and beyond.

One recent driving factor in the A380’s demise is the shifting landscape of luxury air travel. In the A380’s brief heyday, the passenger market was dominated by the cheaper seats, with plenty of economy provision in the back, and fewer first- or business-class options.

The Gulf airlines changed this, using the A380 to create new premium models that afforded extensive flying real estate to wealthier flyers. Emirates debuted the first inflight shower on its planes. Abu Dhabi’s Etihad Airways offered The Residence , a three-room private oasis complete with its own flight attendant.

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But premium travel has evolved. The Gulf carriers are no longer the standard bearers of inflight luxury. Global carriers from Air France to Japan Airlines and Lufthansa have improved their poshest offerings . Private mini-suites are the standard today, not the exception, and showers above the clouds never really caught on.

Qantas will join the ranks of airlines doubling down on premium with its A380 replacement. In his presentation to investors, International CEO Wallace outlined how the airline’s new Airbus A350-1000s will have a higher share of first, business and premium economy seats than their superjumbo predecessors. That means more seats at the pointy end of the plane to sell to the growing ranks of travelers willing to pay up for a little more — or a lot of — comfort at 35,000 feet.

Expanded premium cabins can have the downside of fewer economy seats in the back and higher fares for those seats that remain. That’s not such a great outcome for budget-conscious travelers.

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20 astonishing facts about the A380 superjumbo

Like the Boeing 747 before it, the A380’s retirement is likely to be a slow burn. They will disappear airline by airline until, one day, only Emirates is left. Some, like Global Airlines founder James Asquith, may try to find a second life for the plane by offering niche A380-only services, but experts doubt this will ever be a significant market.

The best estimate is that the shift to the A380 becoming an Emirates-only plane will occur sometime in the early- to mid-2030s.

The retirement of A380s will undoubtedly diminish the status of any airlines waving goodbye to their superjumbos. But, say aviation experts, few of them will care.

“Airlines today fly for profit, not pride,” said Henry Harteveldt, a travel industry analyst and president of Atmosphere Research Group. “Airlines are not interested in having an airplane for the sake of prestige if it won’t produce an expected level of profitability.”

The A380, he explained, was a showpiece plane for Airbus. But it never sold in the numbers the manufacturer expected and its position slowly eroded as aircraft with better products hit the market.

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“The A380 is a technological marvel but it’s been a commercial disappointment to Airbus,” said Harteveldt. “As newer, more fuel-efficient planes with longer ranges become available, airlines are realizing less is more.”

它规模庞大，深受粉丝喜爱，显然早已过了巅峰时期，而且它的复出次数比猫王还多。

但是，随着澳大利亚国家航空公司澳航准备退役其全部空客A380超大型客机，以及其舒适豪华的双层客舱，世界上最大的客机是否终于走到了尽头？

该航空公司在 8 月份表示，由于维护和燃油成本不断上涨，将于 2028 年开始退役其 10 架 A380 客机，比原计划提前四年——其他仍在运营这种巨型飞机的航空公司也经常表达同样的担忧。

澳航决定退役A380，无疑是给这款超大型客机雪上加霜。航空分析公司Cirium的数据显示，目前全球仅剩171架A380仍在服役，远低于2010年代末期全球机队规模超过230架的峰值。空客在订单枯竭后于2021年停止生产A380。而新冠疫情的爆发，也促使包括法航和泰国航空在内的多家航空公司全面退役了A380机队，全球都在观望航空旅行能否复苏。

这也反映了豪华航空领域的变革。A380问世之初，曾搭上中东新兴航空公司的顺风车，凭借其高端定位迅速抢占了商务旅行市场的大头。如今，随着其他航空公司迎头赶上，A380已不再是制胜法宝。

当然，这架超大型客机以前也来过这里。

在新冠疫情肆虐、航空业一片萧条的时期，许多人断言A380已经走向衰亡，航空业即将进入一个由更小、更高效的中远程飞机主导的新时代，这些枢纽间航线的巨型客机将被淘汰。然而，A380经久不衰的人气最终战胜了这种论调，在空客和波音新机型生产延误的推动下，它强势回归。

虽然澳航尚未确定A380何时停止使用其“飞翔的袋鼠”标志，但澳航——这家与超级巨无霸有着长期而深厚情谊的航空公司——可以被视为A380命运的先兆。

“这款飞机自2021年起就已停产，”澳航国际及货运首席执行官卡姆·华莱士近日对投资者表示。“我们目前已经面临供应链挑战，而且我们知道未来很可能还会出现供应限制。”

对于那些对A380情有独钟的广大乘客来说，这无疑是个坏消息。A380以其卓越的稳定性和舒适性而闻名，其他机型难以匹敌。此外，从上层登机的独特体验以及可轻松容纳500多名乘客的宽敞空间，更增添了它的魅力。

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飞机爱好者也会失望。看着这架庞然大物在空中翻滚，仿佛无视地心引力，起飞或降落时那种震撼人心的景象，至今仍是其他商用喷气式飞机无法比拟的。

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“这是我最喜欢的飞机，”来自澳大利亚墨尔本的塞巴斯蒂安·巴尼说道。他经常乘坐澳航A380往返美国，是澳航的常旅客。“与其他飞机相比，它感觉更开阔，飞行也更平稳。”

好消息是，虽然A380的退役倒计时可能已经开始，但它很可能还会继续服役几年。

Cirium 的全球飞机估值主管乔治·迪米特罗夫表示，A380 的使用案例分为两类：阿联酋航空与航空业的其他公司。

阿联酋航空是A380机队中最大的运营商，拥有数十架A380飞机。在其位于迪拜的超级枢纽机场，阿联酋航空甚至围绕A380设计了整个航站楼。而其他航空公司由于只拥有少量A380飞机，这些飞机仅用于执飞关键的高客流量航线。

“拥有少量A380飞机的航空公司将会退役这些飞机，”迪米特罗夫说。“尤其是在整个行业都将重心放在高端旅行上的情况下。”

他补充道：“最终它将成为阿联酋航空专属飞机。”

其他专家也认同，阿联酋航空很可能是A380的最后一家主要运营商。Cirium的数据显示，阿联酋航空目前运营着101架A380飞机，另有15架处于封存状态。即使阿联酋航空有意更换这些飞机，按照目前的生产速度，也需要近十年的时间才能完成。

阿联酋航空总裁蒂姆·克拉克在一份声明中表示：“阿联酋航空计划将A380运营至2040年代初期，因此我们正在投资数十亿美元，用最新的客舱内饰和技术（如星链）翻新我们现有的飞机。”

他补充道：“阿联酋航空A380客机继续保持着强大的客户吸引力、标志性的品牌价值和无与伦比的运力，能够支持需求的持续增长。”

阿联酋航空于 2021 年接收了最后一架 A380 客机。

其他航空公司与超大型客机的联系没有那么紧密，但有些航空公司已经承诺继续运营长达十年。

汉莎航空集团首席执行官卡斯滕·施波尔在 2021 年表示，该集团已“永久退役”A380 客机。两年后，由于空客和波音的生产延误，尤其是 777X 客机（该机型仍在等待认证），A380 客机重新投入使用。

今天，汉莎航空正在对其剩余的八架A380客机的商务舱套房和机上娱乐系统进行升级——这表明这些飞机还将服役一段时间。该航空公司的一位发言人表示，计划将A380的运营时间延长至“2030年代”。

全日空航空公司、英国航空公司、新加坡航空公司和其他运营商目前也没有立即退役A380的计划。“它们仍然是我们最受欢迎的飞机之一，”新加坡航空公司的一位发言人表示。

目前来看，A380 仍将是世界各地航空枢纽的主力机型，在伦敦、慕尼黑、迪拜、新加坡等地的停机坪上起降。

近期导致A380退役的一个重要因素是豪华航空旅行格局的转变。在A380短暂的鼎盛时期，客运市场主要由价格较低的座位主导，经济舱座位充足，而头等舱和商务舱的选择则相对较少。

海湾地区的航空公司改变了这一现状，他们利用A380客机打造了全新的高端机型，为富裕的乘客提供宽敞的机上空间。阿联酋航空率先在其飞机上配备了机上淋浴设施。阿布扎比的阿提哈德航空则推出了“空中官邸”（The Residence），这是一个拥有三间客房的私人绿洲，并配备了专属乘务员。

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但高端旅行已经发生了变化。海湾地区的航空公司不再是机上奢华的标杆。从法国航空到日本航空和汉莎航空，全球各大航空公司都提升了其最豪华的机上服务。如今，私人迷你套房已成为标配，而非例外，而云端淋浴也从未真正流行起来。

澳航将加入众多航空公司的行列，在其A380替代机型上加大对高端服务的投入。在向投资者的演讲中，澳航国际首席执行官华莱士概述了其新型空客A350-1000客机将比其前代超大型客机拥有更高比例的头等舱、商务舱和高端经济舱座位。这意味着飞机前部将有更多座位可供出售，以满足日益增长的旅客群体对更高舒适度的需求，无论舒适度是略高还是极高。

扩大高级舱位的缺点在于，经济舱后部座位减少，剩余座位的票价上涨。这对精打细算的旅客来说并非好事。

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关于A380超级巨型客机的20个惊人事实

与之前的波音747一样，A380的退役很可能是一个缓慢的过程。航空公司会陆续停飞A380，直到有一天，可能只剩下阿联酋航空还在运营。有些人，例如环球航空的创始人詹姆斯·阿斯奎斯，或许会尝试通过提供A380专属的特色服务来为这款飞机寻找“第二春”，但专家们怀疑这是否能形成一个可观的市场。

据估计，A380 成为阿联酋航空专属飞机的过渡期将在 2030 年代初期至中期发生。

A380的退役无疑会降低那些挥别巨型客机的航空公司的地位。但航空专家表示，恐怕没几个航空公司会在意这一点。

“如今航空公司是为了盈利而运营，而不是为了面子，”旅游业分析师、大气研究集团总裁亨利·哈特维尔特表示。“如果一架飞机不能带来预期的盈利，航空公司就不会为了面子而购买它。”

他解释说，A380是空客的一款旗舰机型。但它的销量从未达到制造商的预期，随着性能更优的飞机陆续上市，其市场地位也逐渐下降。

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哈特维尔特表示：“A380 是一项技术奇迹，但它在商业上令空客失望。随着更新、更省油、航程更远的飞机不断涌现，航空公司逐渐意识到少即是多。”