The Saudis have few options against the surging Houthis and none are good ones

The Iran-backed Houthis’ swift advance in Yemen and attacks on Saudi Arabia have left the Gulf Arab kingdom with few options to respond, all of which carry heavy costs.

The key message emanating from the kingdom is that Riyadh does not want an all-out war, experts say, but the Houthis’ emboldened behavior may nonetheless drag the Gulf state into a wider conflict.

All signs now “point to a large-scale Saudi retaliation, and that likelihood is increasing by the day,” Mohammed Al-Basha, an expert on Yemen and Washington, DC-based risk adviser, told CNN.

“At this point they don’t have an option,” he said.

This week, the Yemeni rebel group captured the strategic Perim Island, at the mouth of the Red Sea, along with the port town of Mocha as it sought to take control of the Bab al-Mandeb strait, a key energy route.

Not long after, Saudi Arabia’s key oil pipeline was shuttered after it was attacked by drones from Iraq. No party has claimed responsibility but US President Donald Trump pointed the finger at Tehran, with Iranian proxies known to operate in Iraq.

Saudi Arabia has been making greater use of the East-West pipeline since the Iran war effectively closed the Strait of Hormuz, rerouting some 5 million barrels of oil per day that would have been destined for awaiting oil tankers in the Persian Gulf.

It appears to amplify concerns expressed by the Kingdom early last month, a senior official telling CNN Saudi Arabia is bracing for a “multiple coordinated attacks” by Iraqi militias working with Iran-backed Houthis.

On paper it appears a mismatch – wealthy Saudi Arabia on the one hand, with its well-equipped, modern military; on the other, a rebel group in impoverished Yemen. But the Houthis have proven exceptionally difficult to dislodge.

Often seen by the West and some Gulf states as an Iranian proxy headed by a “rag tag” militia, the Houthis have spent years advancing their military and combat tactics. The group gained popularity among parts of the Middle East after striking Israel following the Gaza war, which was a result of the Hamas-led October 7 attack on Israel.

The Houthis’ demands remain the same: They want an end to Saudi attempts to isolate the large swathes of northern Yemen controlled by the group through a travel and economic blockade. While they are allied with Iran, they also have their own agenda.

Nasr al-Din Amer, head of the Houthi-run state news agency Saba, told CNN on Friday that the Houthis would continue “pressuring” Saudi Arabia until they “break the siege unjustly imposed by the Saudi enemy for 12 years” – pointing to a clear intention to climb the escalation ladder.

Mohammed Huwais/AFP/Getty Images/File

‘A f***-up of epic proportions’: Blame game begins after Iran-backed Houthis’ lightning advance down Red Sea coast

Yemen was dragged into turmoil in 2014 when the Houthis seized the capital, Sanaa, and drove the internationally recognized government into exile. Saudi Arabia led a military campaign the following year to dislodge the rebels and has continued to support the internationally recognized government while maintaining a crippling blockade against Houthi-held areas of the country. Iran, meanwhile, has supplied the Houthis with weapons and training and exercises some influence on the rebel group’s decisions.

Despite its territorial losses, Saudi Arabia has not yet responded with full force, raising questions about its next moves.

The kingdom’s actions in the coming days could mean a return to all-out war – as well as having major consequences for the US-Iran conflict.

The Gulf state is facing an Iran-backed group that is bent on expanding territorial control in Yemen. When it comes to options, it’s slim pickings for the Saudis.

“Saudi Arabia really has limited options in the conflict with the Houthis,” Cinzia Bianco, a visiting fellow at the European Council on Foreign Relations, told CNN.

One is to escalate, she said, but that carries hefty costs for the kingdom.

If Riyadh does “try to go all in,” Bianco said, it could develop into an open-ended conflict similar to Yemen’s deadly civil war.

Mohammed Hamoud/Getty Images

That long-running conflict has turned Yemen into the world’s worst humanitarian crisis , with some 22 million people, roughly half of the population, now in need of humanitarian assistance.

An all-out war between Saudi Arabia and the Houthis would also be likely to drag in Iran, which has been at war with US since February.

“It would be hard then to limit the conflict as purely a Yemeni situation rather than one chapter of the broader US-Iran war, in which Saudi Arabia would now enter as a combatant on the side of the US,” Bianco said.

Meanwhile, the US is unlikely to step in militarily against the Houthis, especially amid the ongoing crisis in Hormuz, the upcoming midterm elections, and the domestic debate about the use of US resources in the Middle East.

Trump is “in no position to double down on the commitment in the region at this political time,” Bianco said.

Behind the scenes, the US has been resisting Saudi pressure to get involved in the renewed fighting.

Stefani Reynolds/Bloomberg/Getty Images

On Saturday, he said that the Houthis had called his administration and indicated they did not want the US to become directly involved in the conflict.

“They would much prefer not having us involved, and they’re letting most ships go through. There’s just one country that they’re not too happy with, and we’ll get that straightened out,” Trump said.

A source told CNN that the Saudi crown prince had spoken twice with Trump on Thursday and urged him to strike the Houthis as they advanced towards the Red Sea, but Trump declined.

The US has, however, sent around 100 military advisers to Saudi Arabia to provide intelligence in its military campaign against the Houthis, CNN reported this week, citing multiple sources familiar with the effort.

Nawaf Obaid, a senior fellow at the Department of War Studies at King’s College London and a former Saudi Arabian government adviser, told CNN that the “Saudi request was never for American airstrikes,” but only for intelligence. “To date, that support has been limited,” he said.

Another route is to try to find a political exit from the conflict, but it may now be too late for that option.

Over the past few months, Saudi Arabia has exercised “strategic patience,” Bianco said, with Riyadh issuing repeated warnings and condemnations to both the Houthis and the Iranians, but to no avail.

In response to the attack on its East-West pipeline, the Saudi foreign ministry said “the kingdom has chosen not to respond at this stage and to support the efforts of the Iraqi government,” from whose territory the attack was launched, but that it “reserves its right to take all necessary measures to safeguard its sovereignty.”

Bianco said that Saudi Arabia has “exhausted the political solutions.”

Even if Riyadh were to strike a deal with the Houthis, it would come at a great cost.

Al-Basha said that would likely amount to complete submission to Houthi demands. “And that’s a very expensive submission. It’s basically surrender,” he said.

It is unclear when Saudi Arabia will launch its next retaliatory move, but the repercussions are expected to surpass Yemen or Riyadh’s borders.

“Backed by the Saudi-led coalition, the Yemeni government’s military campaign against the Houthis is already underway, and I expect it to intensify substantially in the coming days, or even hours,” Salman Al-Ansari, a Saudi geopolitical analyst, told CNN, adding that “we may also see major surprises on multiple fronts.”

However, the Saudis will not launch an all-out war “without firm, sustained, and unequivocal international support,” Al-Ansari said.

The international community had “made a serious mistake by failing to heed Saudi and Yemeni government past warnings” about the Houthis, he added. “Riyadh now expects the international community to correct course and fully support the liberation of Yemen from this malign militia.”

A strategic island in the Red Sea is taken by Houthi rebels.

Iranian allies captured a strategic Red Sea island in a vital waterway. Here’s what to know

Others say that, if the Houthis continue to escalate, the Gulf state will have to go to war – with or without international support.

“The Saudis are under attack, from the Houthis, from the Iraqi Islamic Resistance – you don’t have an option,” Al-Basha said.

“I’d hate to be in their shoes.”

CNN’s Nic Robertson, Kylie Atwood, Katie Bo Lillis, Thomas Bordeaux and Zachary Cohen contributed to this report.

伊朗支持的胡塞武装在也门迅速推进并袭击沙特阿拉伯，使得这个海湾阿拉伯王国几乎没有应对之策，而任何应对措施都将付出沉重代价。

专家表示，沙特王国发出的关键信息是，利雅得不希望爆发全面战争，但胡塞武装日益嚣张的行为仍然可能将这个海湾国家拖入更大规模的冲突。

也门问题专家、常驻华盛顿特区的风险顾问穆罕默德·巴沙告诉美国有线电视新闻网（CNN）：“所有迹象都表明，沙特阿拉伯将进行大规模报复，而且这种可能性与日俱增。”

“到了这个地步，他们别无选择，”他说。

本周，也门反叛组织占领了位于红海入口处的战略要地佩里姆岛以及港口城市摩卡，企图控制重要的能源通道——曼德海峡。

不久之后，沙特阿拉伯的关键输油管道遭到伊拉克无人机袭击后关闭。目前尚无任何一方声称对此事负责，但美国总统唐纳德·特朗普将矛头指向德黑兰，因为众所周知，伊朗的代理人在伊拉克活动。

自伊朗战争有效地封锁了霍尔木兹海峡以来，沙特阿拉伯一直在更多地利用东西向输油管道，每天将约 500 万桶原本要运往波斯湾等待的油轮的石油改道运输。

这似乎加剧了沙特王国上月初表达的担忧。一位高级官员告诉 CNN，沙特阿拉伯正在为伊拉克民兵与伊朗支持的胡塞武装合作发动的“多起协同袭击”做准备。

从表面上看，这似乎是一场实力悬殊的较量——一边是富裕的沙特阿拉伯，拥有装备精良的现代化军队；另一边是贫困的也门胡塞武装。但事实证明，胡塞武装极难被彻底清除。

西方和一些海湾国家通常将胡塞武装视为伊朗的代理人，其领导的民兵组织“乌合之众”。多年来，胡塞武装一直在不断提升其军事和作战战术。在加沙战争爆发后，胡塞武装袭击了以色列，并在中东部分地区赢得了民众的支持。这场战争的起因是哈马斯领导的10月7日对以色列的袭击。

胡塞武装的要求始终如一：他们要求沙特阿拉伯停止通过旅行和经济封锁来孤立该组织控制的也门北部大片地区。尽管他们与伊朗结盟，但他们也有自己的目标。

胡塞武装控制的萨巴通讯社负责人纳斯尔·丁·阿梅尔周五告诉美国有线电视新闻网，胡塞武装将继续“向沙特阿拉伯施压”，直到“打破沙特敌人12年来不公正的围困”——这表明他们显然有意逐步升级局势。

Mohammed Huwais/法新社/盖蒂图片社/档案照片

“一场史诗级的灾难”：伊朗支持的胡塞武装沿红海海岸闪电推进后，互相指责的游戏开始了

2014年，胡塞武装占领也门首都萨那，迫使国际社会承认的也门政府流亡海外，也门由此陷入动荡。次年，沙特阿拉伯领导军事行动，将胡塞武装赶下台。此后，沙特阿拉伯继续支持国际社会承认的也门政府，同时对胡塞武装控制的地区实施严厉封锁。与此同时，伊朗向胡塞武装提供武器和训练，并对该组织的决策施加一定影响。

尽管沙特阿拉伯遭受了领土损失，但尚未采取全面反击措施，这引发了人们对其下一步行动的疑问。

伊朗王国未来几天的行动可能意味着全面战争的回归，并且会对美伊冲突产生重大影响。

这个海湾国家正面临着一个由伊朗支持的武装组织，该组织意图扩大其在也门的领土控制范围。就应对之策而言，沙特的选择余地十分有限。

“沙特阿拉伯在与胡塞武装的冲突中确实选择有限，”欧洲对外关系委员会访问学者辛齐娅·比安科告诉 CNN。

她说，一种方法是升级冲突，但这会给王国带来沉重的代价。

比安科表示，如果利雅得真的“试图全力以赴”，那么冲突可能会演变成一场类似也门致命内战的无休止的冲突。

Mohammed Hamoud/Getty Images

这场旷日持久的冲突使也门成为世界上最严重的人道主义危机，约有 2200 万人（约占也门人口的一半）现在需要人道主义援助。

沙特阿拉伯与胡塞武装之间的全面战争也可能将伊朗卷入其中，伊朗自2月份以来一直与美国处于战争状态。

“那么，就很难将这场冲突仅仅视为也门局势，而不是更广泛的美伊战争的一个篇章，而沙特阿拉伯现在将作为美国一方的参战方加入这场战争，”比安科说。

与此同时，美国不太可能对胡塞武装采取军事行动，尤其是在霍尔木兹危机持续、中期选举即将到来以及美国国内就中东地区使用美国资源展开辩论的情况下。

比安科表示，特朗普“在当前的政治形势下，没有能力加倍履行对该地区的承诺”。

在幕后，美国一直在抵制沙特阿拉伯要求其介入新一轮冲突的压力。

Stefani Reynolds/Bloomberg/Getty Images

周六，他表示胡塞武装已致电美国政府，表示不希望美国直接介入冲突。

“他们更希望我们不要介入，所以放行了大部分船只。只有有一个国家让他们不太满意，我们会解决这个问题，”特朗普说。

一位消息人士告诉 CNN，沙特王储周四与特朗普通了两次电话，敦促他对向红海推进的胡塞武装进行打击，但特朗普拒绝了。

据美国有线电视新闻网（CNN）本周报道，美国已向沙特阿拉伯派遣了约 100 名军事顾问，为其打击胡塞武装的军事行动提供情报。该报道援引了多位知情人士的消息。

伦敦国王学院战争研究系高级研究员、前沙特阿拉伯政府顾问纳瓦夫·奥贝德告诉CNN，“沙特从未要求美国进行空袭”，而只是请求美国提供情报。“迄今为止，沙特提供的支持非常有限，”他说。

另一条途径是尝试通过政治手段摆脱冲突，但现在可能为时已晚。

比安科表示，在过去的几个月里，沙特阿拉伯一直保持着“战略耐心”，利雅得方面反复向胡塞武装和伊朗发出警告和谴责，但都无济于事。

针对其东西输油管道遭到袭击，沙特外交部表示，“沙特王国选择在现阶段不予回应，并支持伊拉克政府的努力”，此次袭击正是从伊拉克境内发起的，但沙特“保留采取一切必要措施捍卫其主权的权利”。

比安科表示，沙特阿拉伯已经“用尽了所有政治解决办法”。

即使利雅得与胡塞武装达成协议，也将付出巨大的代价。

巴沙表示，这很可能意味着完全屈服于胡塞武装的要求。“而这种屈服代价非常高昂，基本上就是投降。”他说。

目前尚不清楚沙特阿拉伯何时会采取下一步报复行动，但预计其影响将超出也门或利雅得的国界。

沙特地缘政治分析师萨勒曼·安萨里告诉美国有线电视新闻网（CNN）：“在沙特领导的联军的支持下，也门政府对胡塞武装的军事行动已经开始，我预计在未来几天甚至几小时内，战事将大幅升级。”他还补充说，“我们可能还会在多个战线上看到重大意外。”

安萨里表示，如果没有坚定、持续和明确的国际支持，沙特阿拉伯不会发动全面战争。

他补充说，国际社会“犯了一个严重的错误，没有听取沙特和也门政府过去关于胡塞武装的警告”。“利雅得现在希望国际社会纠正方向，全力支持也门从这个邪恶民兵组织手中解放出来。”

胡塞武装占领了红海中一座具有战略意义的岛屿。

伊朗盟友占领了红海一条重要水道上的一座战略岛屿。以下是您需要了解的内容。

另一些人则认为，如果胡塞武装继续升级冲突，海湾国家将不得不诉诸战争——无论是否有国际支持。

“沙特阿拉伯正遭受胡塞武装和伊拉克伊斯兰抵抗组织的攻击——你们别无选择，”巴沙说道。

“我真不想身处他们的境地。”

CNN 的 Nic Robertson、Kylie Atwood、Katie Bo Lillis、Thomas Bordeaux 和 Zachary Cohen 对本报道亦有贡献。