Centre-left opposition bloc leads in Swedish vote, poll shows

Sweden’s opposition bloc is projected to win the election with a one-seat majority over the ruling coalition.

Ballot envelopes are placed into a ballot box during early voting for Sweden's general election at Malmo Central Station on August 26, 2026 [File: Johan Nilsson/EPA]

Swedish Social Democratic Party leader Magdalena Andersson has told supporters that the opposition coalition is leading the polls, and if the results stand, “Sweden will get a new government”.

Voting in Sweden’s election ended at 18:00 GMT on Sunday, and officials are counting the results.

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The centre-left opposition was expected to win 176 seats in the 349-seat parliament, the Swedish Election Authority said in its latest update in early Monday, based on votes from 4,853 of Sweden’s 6,312 election districts.

The right-wing governing bloc was projected to win 173 seats, down from an earlier forecast of 175.

Swedish Prime Minister Ulf Kristersson, who leads the ruling coalition, said on Monday that he would contact other party leaders after the elections, adding that it remains an open question who will govern Sweden in the coming years.

The centre-left opposition coalition was projected to win 51.3 percent of the vote, ahead of the right-wing bloc’s 46.8 percent, according to an exit poll by public broadcaster SVT.

A separate election-day poll conducted by broadcaster TV4 also showed the centre-left in the lead.

Swedish exit polls, while often indicative of the outcome, have not always proven accurate. In 2022, for example, a poll projected that Andersson’s centre-left bloc would prevail, but a right-wing coalition led by Kristersson ultimately won.

Earlier in this campaign, Sweden’s left-wing bloc appeared headed for a comfortable victory over Kristersson’s four-party alliance, which includes the nationalist Sweden Democrats. But the race tightened steadily in the final weeks of the campaign, turning what had looked like a relatively predictable election into a much closer contest.

Earlier in the year, polls had given the opposition bloc led by Andersson’s Social Democrats a lead of about 10 percentage points. By the final weeks of the campaign, that advantage had collapsed to just two to three points.

A victory for Andersson would provide some respite for left-leaning parties across Europe, where right-wing and far-right parties have been gaining ground. Just last week, Alternative for Germany (AfD) won 44 percent of the vote in a key state election , putting a far-right party within reach of power at the state level in Germany for the first time since World War II.

If the early exit polls are wrong, however, Sweden’s election could instead bring the far-right Sweden Democrats into government for the first time. A party with roots in the neo-Nazi movement, it won 20.5 percent of the vote in the 2022 election, becoming the largest party on the right and a crucial source of parliamentary support for Kristersson’s minority government.

Until now, however, the Sweden Democrats have remained outside government. Kristersson announced in April that his conservative Moderates would be prepared to bring the party into a governing coalition if the right secured a majority, which would give the Sweden Democrats cabinet positions for the first time.

But if the exit-poll lead is confirmed, the Sweden Democrats would be less likely to enter government.

瑞典反对派联盟预计将在选举中以一席优势击败执政联盟。

2026年8月26日，在瑞典马尔默中央车站举行的大选提前投票期间，选票信封被放入投票箱。[图片：Johan Nilsson/EPA]

瑞典社会民主党领导人玛格达莱娜·安德森告诉支持者，反对派联盟在民调中领先，如果结果保持不变，“瑞典将迎来新政府”。

瑞典大选投票于格林尼治标准时间周日18:00结束，官员们正在统计结果。

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瑞典选举委员会周一早些时候发布的最新数据显示，根据瑞典 6312 个选区中的 4853 个选区的投票结果，中左翼反对派预计将在 349 个议席的议会中赢得 176 个席位。

预计右翼执政联盟将赢得 173 个席位，低于此前预测的 175 个席位。

领导执政联盟的瑞典首相乌尔夫·克里斯特松周一表示，他将在选举后与其他政党领导人联系，并补充说，未来几年谁将执政瑞典仍然是一个悬而未决的问题。

根据公共广播公司 SVT 的出口民调，中左翼反对派联盟预计将赢得 51.3% 的选票，领先于右翼联盟的 46.8%。

电视台 TV4 在选举日当天进行的另一项民意调查也显示，中左翼阵营领先。

瑞典的出口民调虽然通常能预示选举结果，但并非总是准确无误。例如，2022年，一项民调预测安德森领导的中左翼联盟将获胜，但最终克里斯特松领导的右翼联盟赢得了选举。

在竞选初期，瑞典左翼联盟似乎有望轻松战胜克里斯特松领导的四党联盟（其中包括民族主义政党瑞典民主党）。但随着竞选进入最后几周，选情逐渐胶着，原本看似胜负已定的选举变成了势均力敌的较量。

今年早些时候的民调显示，以安德森领导的社会民主党为首的反对派联盟领先约10个百分点。但到了竞选的最后几周，这一优势已缩水至仅剩2到3个百分点。

安德森若胜选，将为欧洲各地的左翼政党带来一丝喘息之机，因为右翼和极右翼政党正在欧洲不断壮大。就在上周，德国另类选择党（AfD）在关键的州选举中赢得了44%的选票，这使得极右翼政党自二战以来首次有机会在德国州一级执政。

然而，如果早期出口民调有误，瑞典大选结果可能出人意料，极右翼的瑞典民主党将首次入主政府。该党根植于新纳粹运动，在2022年大选中赢得了20.5%的选票，成为右翼最大的政党，也是克里斯特松少数派政府在议会中的重要支持来源。

然而，瑞典民主党此前一直游离于政府之外。克里斯特松在四月份宣布，如果右翼政党赢得多数席位，他领导的保守派温和党将准备带领该党加入执政联盟，这将使瑞典民主党首次获得内阁席位。

但如果出口民调的领先优势得到确认，瑞典民主党进入政府的可能性就会降低。